Dr Khairi Janbek, Author at CrossFireArarbia

Trump, Theater of The Absurd and Gaza

Dr Khairi Janbek
February 9, 2025

By Dr Khairi Janbek

Evidently US President Donald Trump has raised the stakes very high in his proposed plan to solve the intractable Middle Eastern problem: The Palestinian issue and consequently reaching a wider normalization between the Arab states and Israel.

Of course not only the Arab world but also the rest of the world is learning how to cope with a new American presidency, more accustomed to making deals than in reaching agreements. Consequently the method used concerning the Arab states is that of threats to their national security and integrity with the existential being to their Palestinian brethren.

https://t.co/aML2jXnfPl
Donald Trump's recent foreign policy moves have shifted focus from the Western Hemisphere to the Middle East, particularly with his controversial proposal for the U.S. to "take over" Gaza. This contradicts his administration's opposition to military…
— The America One News (@am1_news) February 9, 2025

In scenes reminiscent of a play from the theatre of the absurd, we saw Mr Benjamin Netanyahu’s face light up like a child each time Mr Trump opened his mouth promising him presents which he always sought, although in this case those presents are not the property of Mr Trump and are not his to either have or give away.

Now, one has no wish to go to the distant American history, because the last time American manifest destiny was mentioned, native Americans paid the price with a big genocide and other nations were reduced to mere colonial status by the USA.

However, Trump never mentioned the term explicitly, but whether he realises it or not, the ethnic cleansing he is proposing to solve the problem of the Palestinians to the advantage of Israel is no different to the ethnic cleansing of native Americans. The times are different but the idea is the same.

On the other hand, the acid test for the Palestinian question is in how the world is going to react to these Trump advocated policies. One doesn’t think Russia with its war in Ukraine, at least for the near future, will have much say regarding the Palestinian issue or any other to that effect, while the Chinese, the question of trade war is far more important to them as a system, which puts trade and commerce above politics.

And the EU with the apparent cracks in its unity, it is still unclear what it will do; of course besides amiable legalistic positive rhetoric, will it continue to be the financier of the new American foreign policy, or become the backdoor for US handouts to nations which the United States has claimed will not support?

Ultimately, with the US and Israeli threats of forcible transfer of the Palestinians, it is the Arab states that are in the front line, the close allies of the USA and some of whom peace signatories with Israel.

Of course in the next day or two, the King of Jordan will meet President Trump in Washington, and it is rumored president Sisi will join them, also towards the end of the month, an emergency Arab summit will likely be held in Cairo.

One cannot predict the outcome, but judging from old references, everyone will try to escape responsibility with the Palestinian people keep paying the price.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian commentator based in Paris

Opinion

A World Without America?

Dr Khairi Janbek
February 4, 2025

By Dr Khairi Janbek

Away from the condom politics which seems to be just an obsession of a Washington administration suffering from erectile dysfunction, on thought it would be intriguing to imagine a world without America, which means deep cultural, economic as well as political implications. It’s a thought experiment which forces one to imagine how the world would look like without the specific influence, history and power dynamics that the USA has shaped.

On the geopolitical and global power level, other nations would have to step in into the void, vying for influence. Europe, China, Russia and India would probably play a central role on global politics, in addition, the Security Council of the UN will start looking very different, Europe would become the dominant force strengthening its collective military and political capabilities.

In terms of culture and society, American has played a central role in shaping global pop culture, Hollywood, music, fashion and hi-tech, indeed other nations would have come in, in Asia South Korea, Japan and India would take a central role in shaping global culture, with Europe asserting itself in the arts and literature.

In technology and innovation, the US has produced Silicon Valley and leading corporations in software, hardware and AI, however without, China and Europe would fill the hitech leadership role which probably would accelerate their breakthroughs.

As for the economy, without America, the world economy would be real different, the US dollar would not be the world reserve currency, with the Euro and the Yuan, being the global standard. Trade dynamics would be rearranged and institutions like the World Bank and the IMF would have other substitutes.

Regarding military and defense, American power is unmatched , without it global security dynamics would shift drastically, NATO might not exist, while regions powers like Russia, China and India, would become more aggressive in asserting their influence.

In terms of the environment and social movements, the US has been at the forefront of global debates on climate change, social Justice and human rights; taking note of course, with mixed results, but without it, certainly others would take the lead, for a start, Europe has been a leader in pushing for climate action , and in social action, countries like Brazil, South Africa, would fill in the gap with most probably leading to different outcomes. But , the USA has been a major donor for global and humanitarian aid, and their contribution would have to be substituted by other coalitions, which one assumes would be limited only to crisis.

Essentially, a world system without America, the international system would be less centered around one dominant great power, as power would be more diffuse with multiple centers of influence and more regional power struggles, but at the end of the day, the purpose for the use of condoms would be much clearer.

Dr Janbek is an opinion writer based in Paris

News

Trump’s ‘Business-like’ Solution to Gaza

Dr Khairi Janbek
January 28, 2025

By Dr Khairi Janbek

If you remember in the films, when the big mafiosi harms a friend or an ally, says, usually I had nothing against him, I even liked him, but this is pure business.

One is using this adage, because it simply reminds me of what president Trump said about the Jordanian monarch and the Egyptian president. He expressed his affection towards both, and said he got on well with them and liked them, but wants them to take refugees from Gaza and settle them in their own territories.

Now, doesn’t Mr Trump know that this move presents an existential threat to all? Or is he indifferent to their concerns, the fact being that, it’s nothing personal, just a businesslike solution to the Gazan Palestinians, whom in fact do not wish to leave their land as things stand now.

Unfortunately, this proposal stems from a very long history of the notion that, Israel is a very small country, and the Arab world is vast, and since the Palestinians are Arabs then they can be absorbed in other Arab countries!

Of course, this notion does not take into consideration that the Palestinians do not wish to leave their lands and seek justice in their own homeland, but then again there is an Arab contribution to this dimension which emerged in the so-called post-Arab-Israeli peace process, albeit in all probability unintentionally.

The fundamental idea of land for peace, which implicitly and explicitly meant land and state for the Palestinian people; which is incidentally a political notion, is that the Palestinian problem becomes a humanitarian issue that of refugees demanding the right of return.

In essence a people without land, or unspecified area of land doesn’t not constitute a nation. One is not going to bore everyone with justice and injustice, rather wishes to say why is it assumed by Mr Trump that the Palestinians should not have a say in their independent destiny? Why doesn’t he address them directly, after all the US is one of the guarantors of the Oslo accords, which incidentally gave legitimacy to the PNA.

Having said all that, where do we go from here, and for whom is Gaza supposed to be built for? If it is supposed to be built for the Gazans would that mean the Gazan status in Jordan and Egypt is a temporary proposal, in other words until Gaza is rebuilt? And who will rebuild Gaza?

These are very important details which cannot be swept aside without discussions involving the Egyptians, Jordanians and the PNA. But can Mr Trump’s idea really be worth considering and entertaining in terms of practicalities or is it on top-of-the-head remark?

The writer is a Jordanian columnist based in Paris

Opinion

Winners, Losers in Ceasefire Gaza

Dr Khairi Janbek
January 21, 2025

Dr Khairi Janbek

The idea of peace in Gaza is a deeply complex and sensitive issue that involves multiple layers of history, politics, and human rights concerns. When asking who is the winner in such a situation, it is important to note that in conflicts like this, there is often no clear cut winner. Both sides have experienced significant losses, and the true victory is ideally peace and justice for all involved.

Therfore, writing about peace in Gaza and identifying a winner is a delicate and complex issue, given the long history of the conflict, the many political, religious, and social factors involved , anf the human toll. Rather than framing it in terms of winner, it might be more constructive to focus on how peace could be achieved and what that would mean for the people of Gaza, Israel, and the broader region.

To move forward, in any conflict the idea of a winner is flawed. For those caught in the crossfire, both Palestinians and Israeli have face immeasurable losses, so instead of asking who emerged victorious, we must ask how can both, Israelis and Palestinians, live side by side in dignity and security? Essentially, a lasting peace would not mean the obliteration of one side or the domination of another. It would require mutual recognition of each other’s rights, history and humanity. It would mean ending the cycle of violence that harms innocent civilians and leaves communities devastated, while opening the door for political and economic solutions that allow both peoples to thrive.

Heavy hand

For Israel, security is a non-negotiable priority. The persistent threat of violence from militant groups in Gaza has been a constant concern. On the other hand, Palestinians in Gaza must also be able to live without the heavy hand of occupation and blocade, ensuring their freedom. In this context, the international community must ensure that the rights of both Palestinians and Israelis are upheld, with a focus on dignity of the individuals; whether it is the right to live without fear of violence, or the right to self- determination and sovereignty.

Indeed the people of Gaza have long suffered under economic hardship, with hardly any access to basic services like healthcare, education, and employment opportunities, consequently any peace agreement must include a comprehensive plan for rebuilding Gaza, improving living standards, and opening up pathways to regional cooperation and trade. Achieving peace will require honest peacemakers on both sides, committed to negotiation and diaogue over violence. This clearly will involve the international community playing a much more active rôle in mediating talks, promoting trust-building measures, and holding all parties accountable.

The true winners in a new beginning would be the people; both Palestinians and Israelis, whom have suffered for too long. Peace would allow for the children of Gaza to grow up without fear of bombings, and for Israeli families to live in security without constant worry of attacks. Therefore, victory would be a shared one, a victory of humanity over hate, of hope over despair, and of a future where both Palestinians and Israelis can claim their right to live in peace, security, and mutual respect.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris

Analyses

Can Joseph Aoun Get Lebanon Out of its Rut?

Dr Khairi Janbek
January 10, 2025

By Dr Khairi Janbek

We have grown accustomed to Lebanon being in the headlines as a result of blood and destruction, but no longer. Whether due to the weakening of Iran, determination of the international community and/or both, all this appears to be changing.

Lebanon has now officially elected a new president, ending a long period of political crisis that has long left the country without a head of state since the term of former president Michel Aoun expired in late October 2022. After protracted negotiations and intense political maneuvering, not to mention Arab and international pressure, general Aoun, with a tough military reputation who has lead the army since 2017, has become the latest leader of the country.

MP votes for US Congressman as president of Lebanon

In a surprising twist during Lebanon's presidential vote, an MP cast a ballot for US Senator Bernie Sanders, though it was swiftly voided. 99 out of 128 MPs backed Joseph Aoun who was elected as Lebanon's new president, ending… pic.twitter.com/x9ncaxKUOc
— Middle East Monitor (@MiddleEastMnt) January 10, 2025

General Aoun takes office amidst a period of significant economic and social challenges for Lebanon, as the country is grappling with an acute and ongoing financial crisis, soaring rates of unemployment, and the collapse of its currency, in addition to the refugee crisis and deteriorating infrastructure that has left Lebanon hanging by a thread.

In fact to top it all, the powerful sectarian political groups which hindered the election of a president for the past 26 months and more will not likely disappear with the election of general Aoun despite the seemingly robust character of the new leader.

The new 14th Lebanese president in his first address to parliament, vowed to work with all political factions to implement reforms and tackle the pressing economic issues that has long log-jammed the country. His speech was one that had determination and a sense of purpose and appeal with a rallying-cry for all of the fractious political groups of Lebanon.

Having said that, and despite the election in the Lebanese Parliament, the country’s future still remains uncertain with challenges. The new president will need to navigate carefully the deeply entrenched political system which often leads to gridlock and an inability to implement meaningful change.

Additionally, the country’s economy remains in freefall, with millions of Lebanese struggling to afford basic goods and services. Therefore, it is clear the road ahead will be a challenging one to say the least. Logically for many, the focus has already turned to whether the new president can live up to the promise of healing the nation and lead it towards a more stable system.

From the Arab and international perspectives, the messages of support from both seem to be encouraging, but this support will need to be translated into monetary terms for re-building the country. It is said there is the promise of $10 billion earmarked for this effort but frozen on the condition that Lebanon elects a president based.

Now this hurdle has been overcome and passed. At the end of the day as well, General Aoun is seen as the consensus candidate for the Arab countries as well as the international community. In this sense, the release of the re-building funds may look optimistic but there is still the snag of the question of Hezbollah and Israel’s future belligerent intentions towards the country, issues that are still to be ironed out.

Lebanese citizens celebrated the election of #JosephAoun as #Lebanon's president after a more than two-year presidential vacuum. pic.twitter.com/OXJ8Wgxiv3
— DD News (@DDNewslive) January 10, 2025

The new Lebanese administration needs guarantees from Hezbollah in as much as it needs guarantees from the new Lebanese administration, and the Arab and international community eagerly awaits the results of this dimension because, putting it bluntly, no one wishes to see their investments blown up in another war nor their money burnt in smoke.

All that one can say under the circumstances, is that General Aoun, and he is the fourth president to be chosen from the military establishment, can negotiate with Hezbollah to surrender their heavy weapons to the Lebanese Army while keeping their light weapons; at least for the time being, and stay away from the Litani River as demanded by Israel.

But this will need considerable political dexterity and acumen.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris