‘Bibi, You Are Not Going to Win this War’

Look Bibi, you are not going to win the war so stop acting as if you are going on! The sooner Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu realizes that the better it would be for everyone.

 But will he? Netanyahu is on a rollercoaster. Unable to finish off Gaza and Hamas, he turns his army to Lebanon and Hezbollah but he is soon stuck in the ‘mud’ despite the mass bombing, the destruction and the murder of innocent civilians.

The Israeli army has tried to cross the border at least seven times but has failed. It tried to enter a few hundred yards into southern Lebanon but soon pushed back every time by Hezbollah fighters. The Israeli army is finding out this party is no pushover despite the early pagers and the walkie talkie deathly-traps disasters.

Despite its air superiority and massive bombings that killed much of its top cadres including the dramatic killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasarallah, Hezbollah fighters soon picked up and regained their strength and armor.

On the ground, the Israeli soldiers were not going to cross into Lebanon and that was a promise kept up by the skirmishes, heavy fighting, engagement and combat. Israeli soldiers were being stopped at the door so to speak, they were being killed and injured as reported by Hezbollah and admitted to by the Israeli army.

In addition to that, Hezbollah has been launching missiles and rockets on northern and central Israel all week, reaching all the way to Haifa and Tel Aviv, Acca, Tiberias, Safad with settlements, military basis, Mossad headquarters, the Galilee and all way to the occupied West Bank.

What this meant is that sirens were going off all the time and people were going in and out of underground shelters because of the extent of the missiles that were mostly coming from southern Lebanon but occasionally from Yemen and from Islamic resistance groups in Iraq and even Syria.

Psychology Strain

So the psychology has been a strain on its people, military and even politicians for on average between 100 and 150 missiles were being launched on the Israeli interior and on a daily basis. The majority of these are falling on these areas all the time and wreaking havoc and nervousness.  Their deflection by the Israeli Iron Dome has  failed badly in this war with Israelis feeling the heat as 23 percent of the population polled are already thinking of leaving the country.

Hezbollah is launching the different missiles despite the constant bombing being made by Israeli warplanes on the southern district of Beirut which is considered as the main Hezbollah stronghold. The Israelis are bombing intensely the Lebanese district, almost on the same level that was being practiced on the Gaza Strip, especially in the early months of the period following 7 October.

However, Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas and continuing its battering of the north of Israel – as can be seen – and will be maintained for a long time. Observers are saying Hezbollah seeks to send a clear message to Israel that ‘if you bomb our south district we will continue to strike places like Tel Aviv and Haifa’ which are the major economic and technological hubs and conurbations in Israel.

It is not an east ride for Israel after it killed Nasrallah which was seen as a brief moment of success and jubilation not least most of all from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who wanted to celebrate this act on the first anniversary of 7 October. But this wasn’t to be for soon, Israel was hit by 200 ballistic missiles launched all the way from Iran and increasing the psychology of fear among the Jewish population.

Israel has already tried to play down that affair by saying these missiles were not effective but they later admitted at least two of their military bases were hit. On the point of conjecture, everyone is expecting Israel to strike Iran and expand the regional war. But the Americans, whose generals and politicians are presently in Israel, they maybe trying to persuade the Israeli government not to because of the deadly consequences and slippery-slope scenarios.

Meanwhile, and feeling the pain again, Israel is going back to pound poor old Gaza in a most intense and obscene way and manner while seeking once again to drive the population of northern Gaza further down south and create a military zone and fill it with Jewish settlements through its so-called ‘Generals’ Plan’. 

This was the idea put forward at the start of this war on the enclave last year. It failed then – despite talk of driving the Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula – and no doubt it will fail now.

This is because after a whole year of destruction Hamas and its fighters continue to be a force to be reckoned with. They have not been destroyed despite the mass bombs dropped on Gaza but they are regrouping throughout the enclave and dealing painful blows to the Israeli army.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Gaza Cracks Trump’s Image as ‘Peacemaker’

By Giorgio Cafiero

The Gaza ceasefire had been extremely fragile ever since its implementation on Jan. 19. Many analysts doubted that phase two would begin, and the main question was about when, not if, the ceasefire would fall apart. It came as no surprise when Israel completely ended the ceasefire on March 18 and resumed its genocidal war on Gaza, killing roughly 600 [1] Palestinians within the first four days after the truce collapsed.

It is beyond disturbing to think about what will come next for the 2.2 million people in Gaza, especially given that Israeli authorities imposed [2] a blockade on all humanitarian aid on March 2. While briefing the UN Security Council on the day Israel resumed its war, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher said [3] “food is rotting and medicines are expiring.” The Israelis quickly undid all humanitarian progress achieved by international actors during the 42-day ceasefire. “Essential survival resources needed are now being rationed,” warned [4] Fletcher.

For all the misleading and outright inaccurate reporting in the Western media, it is clear that Hamas wanted phase two to begin, which was supposed to take place on March 1. However, Israel wanted phase one extended and was against moving into phase two. Had the second phase begun, Hamas would have handed over all the remaining Israeli captives. Now, amid this intense warfare, Hamas claims it is considering US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s “Bridge Proposal,” which aims to extend the collapsed ceasefire into next month, beyond Ramadan and Passover, to permit negotiations for a permanent ceasefire to end this war.

It is not difficult to understand why this genocide resumed on March 18. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies in the government were crystal clear that they did not support the ceasefire and wanted Israeli military operations against Gaza to resume. It was only pressure from the incoming Donald Trump administration during the final days of Joe Biden’s presidency that led Tel Aviv to agree to the tenuous ceasefire. Now that the Trump administration removed that pressure on Israel and the American president went all-out with his rhetoric about “hell” in Gaza, Netanyahu received the green light from the White House to continue the genocide.


Trump’s desires and reality

What US President Donald Trump realistically sought to achieve with his obscene rhetoric about a “clean out” [6] of Gaza and outlandish talk of transforming the war-ravaged enclave into the “Riviera of the Middle East” [7] is a question for another article. Nonetheless, it is easy to conclude that such language emboldened the most right-wing and aggressive Israeli elements, including those in the government. These extremists have spent decades fantasizing about a second Nakba and establishing a Palestinian state outside Palestine.

Put simply, for Netanyahu and those around him to champion this plan of mass ethnic cleansing and forced displacement of millions of Palestinians into Egypt, Jordan, and perhaps also some Gulf Arab countries, continuing the war on Gaza is a necessary part of this process. After all, human history has shown that people don’t volunteer to leave their ancestral homeland but typically only do as a result of massive bloodshed.

The Israeli leadership understands this about the Palestinians and their quest to remain on their land. So much was on display with the leaflets [8] that Israel’s military recently dropped on Gaza, which threatened to make Trump’s plan for a “clean out” of Gaza the new reality.

To be sure, Israel’s domestic politics and Netanyahu’s own legal situation were relevant factors too. By restarting the war on Gaza, Netanyahu was able to secure stability within his own coalition. Now, not only is there no reason for him to fear more cabinet members quitting the coalition, but former Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir who left in January because of the ceasefire has returned [9] due to the genocide’s resumption.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s testimony in his corruption trial, set for the day that the war on Gaza recommenced, was postponed, [10] highlighting how “security developments” [11] shield him from legal consequences for his alleged [12] breach of trust, bribery, and fraud.

A key question is, where does this all leave Trump? After all, he campaigned on being a “peacemaker” president. While delivering his inaugural address just over two months ago, Trump declared, [13] “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”

At this point, Trump might find himself trapped in Gaza, preventing him from reducing the US military footprint in the Middle East. Trump is escalating conflicts in the region—from Gaza to Yemen and possibly soon Iran—that could keep the US bogged down in this part of the world, which is the opposite of his promises regarding US foreign policy if elected to a second term. It remains to be seen how Trump’s support for Israel’s actions in Gaza and his escalation in Yemen—closely tied to Palestine—will impact his standing among his MAGA base.

The author is the CEO of Gulf States Analytics

[1] https://www.euronews.com/2025/03/22/israel-orders-idf-troops-to-advance-deeper-into-gaza-as-renewed-operation-expands

[2] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/02/middleeast/israel-halts-gaza-humanitarian-aid-intl-hnk/index.html

[3, 4] https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/03/1161246

[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-intensifying-gaza-strikes-press-hamas-into-freeing-hostages-defence-2025-03-21/

[6] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/middleeast/trump-clean-out-gaza-middle-east-intl/index.html

[7] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trumps-gaza-israel-plans-riviera-rcna190748

[8] https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-drops-leaflets-saying-no-one-will-care-if-gazans-vanish

[9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/18/israels-ben-gvir-to-rejoin-netanyahus-government

[10,11,12] https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/report-netanyahus-testimony-corruption-trial-postponed-due-gaza-war

[13] https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/the-inaugural-address/

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The Middle East Octopus

By Dr Khairi Janbek

When we think of contemporary Iran, one always believes that the Arab Middle East had always been dominated by three Non-Arab American allies: Iran of the Shah, Turkey and Israel. One thinks that those “neighborhood police stations” were the guarantors of stability through their convergence, and at times contradictions in the age of Cold War and oil. However, the Shah of Iran was deposed and the anti-communist Cold War ended, but that didn’t mean that oil stopped becoming important nor that both Russia and China were no longer threats.

One would say, that the rehabilitation of Iran and possibly turning it into a negotiations partner aims at keeping the third angle of the police stations triangle going, because non of the Arab countries, no matter how much they tried, could never replace Iran, because no “Arab police station” is permitted to emerge as a third angle.

Having said that, it would be beyond naive to think that the expansion of Iran’s power and influence happened by stealth or escaped the notice of the US and NATO. After all, Iran grew to become a Red Sea country through its influence on the Houthis in Yemen, a Mediterranean country through its influence in Syria as well Lebanon through Hezbollah, and the major Gulf country through its supporters in Iraq. In fact this Iranian domination of space is what has created a common space between all its long arm organizations in the region.

Essentially, if we compare Iran to an octopus, all those various groups are its tentacles, and they all serve the purpose of Iran’s strategic interests, albeit not through a push-button approach, but through not taking any action which would not please their master Iran. Of course, this puts Iran in a strong position to be a major player in the region and an inescapable negotiations partner for the US, which is also convenient for the Americans, in order to remind their Arab allies who is their protector in a region policed by Turkey, Israel and Iran.

Of course, this takes us to the point of saying that, for all intents and purposes, for the Americans a trusted adversary is more important than distrusted friends, and that it would be absurd to think that all those long arms of Iran in the Arab world can be amputated by military means; they certainly can be weakened, but without the consent of Iran and without the right price, so long as it remains behind them, nothing much can change.

At this point, from what one can only see, is that no one in their right mind or otherwise, will permit a war to emerge in which Israel is pitted against Iran and the US as well as NATO putting all their weight behind Israel and forcing the Arabs to choose their camp. That would be the scenario of the end of the world as we know it , or with major civil wars in the Arab countries controlled by the tentacles of Iran, and no one wants that.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris

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