Opinion Archives - Page 2 of 22

Netanyahu’s Trap!

CrossFireArabia
March 22, 2025

The already fragile ceasefire in Gaza was further shattered as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel had “resumed combat in full force” against Hamas in the Gaza Strip on March 18, during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. In the hours following Netanyahu’s announcement, Israeli airstrikes – which had already been routinely violating the ceasefire in recent weeks – killed more than 400 Palestinians, including a significant number of children. Later that day, Israeli forces launched a new ground offensive, reportedly killing at least 48 more Palestinians, according to local health workers.

Vowing to eradicate Hamas, Netanyahu described the renewed phase of state terrorism as “just the beginning”. Meanwhile, Israeli sources confirmed that the assault was conducted in “full coordination” with the United States. Also on Wednesday, Israel carried out an attack on a UN facility in central Gaza City, killing a foreign staffer and wounding five others. Jorge Moreira da Silva, Executive Director of the UN Office for Project Services, condemned the strike, stating: “Israel knew this was a UN compound where people were living and working. It is a well-known location.”

From the outset, Netanyahu’s office has justified the assault by accusing Hamas of preparing new attacks, refusing to release hostages, and rejecting all proposals put forward by US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and other mediators. At the UN Security Council meeting on Gaza, convened just hours after the renewed Israeli offensive, the US envoy placed exclusive blame on Hamas for the collapse of the ceasefire. According to the Israeli government, approximately 59 Israeli captives remain in Gaza, with fewer than half believed to be still alive. Hamas, however, denied rejecting the US envoy’s proposal, accusing Netanyahu of deliberately resuming hostilities to sabotage the ceasefire agreement. The group characterized Israel’s actions as a “unilateral” annulment of the existing deal.

Arab countries, including Egypt and Qatar – both key mediators in the peace negotiations – have strongly condemned Israel’s latest military escalation. On March 20, the US State Department reaffirmed the “bridge proposal” put forward by the US President Donald Trump’s administration last week. It aims to extend the first phase of the ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas, and remains on the table. Given this backdrop, the question arises: What is driving Netanyahu’s genocidal ambitions?

A zero-sum game?

Netanyahu appears to be maneuvering to reduce the original multiphase ceasefire agreement to just its first phase, securing the release of all Israeli hostages before resuming his military campaign in Gaza. Hamas, however, recognizes the trap. At present, neither the US nor mediators like Egypt and Qatar can offer Hamas any guarantees that if it releases all remaining hostages – both dead and alive – Israel will commit to entering the second phase of the agreement.

It is worth recalling that Israel had already delayed negotiations for the second phase, which was initially scheduled to begin 16 days after the agreement took effect. By the time phase one was set to conclude on March 1, Israel had refused to advance talks, effectively stalling the diplomatic process.

Since March 2, Israel has taken increasingly punitive measures against Gaza. According to the UN, it has blocked the entry of all lifesaving supplies, including food, medicine, fuel, and cooking gas, affecting 2.1 million people. It has also sealed off all crossing points and, on March 9, ordered a complete shutdown of Gaza’s electricity supply. The blackout has severely impacted desalination plants, which provide clean drinking water to some 600,000 people. Yet, despite these actions, Israel continues to evade accountability for its collective punishment of Gaza’s population.

What is Israel’s endgame for Gaza?

Israel appears to be accelerating efforts to implement what some critics describe as a plan to radically reshape Gaza’s demographic and political future. Netanyahu, frustrated by his failure to eliminate Hamas and achieve clear strategic objectives, is pampered by Trump’s proposal to “take over” and “own” the Gaza Strip. At present, Netanyahu is exploiting the geopolitical status— including high-level talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine and the US military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen—which have diverted international attention away from Gaza. This distraction provides him with an opportunity to escalate the attacks with fewer diplomatic constraints.

However, Netanyahu’s thirst for blood is not only deepening the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza but also exacerbating regional tensions, pushing the Middle East toward prolonged instability. His actions risk triggering wider spillover effects, particularly in Lebanon and Syria, and further escalating an already volatile landscape. The pressing question remains: does Israel have a long-term strategy for Gaza, or is it merely waging a campaign of destruction with no viable political exit strategy? Another crucial consideration is, following their emergency summit in Cairo on March 4, how will the Arab League reconcile Egypt’s reconstruction plan with Israel’s relentless aggression?

The urgency of a concerted diplomatic and strategic effort to curb Israeli aggression and expansionism cannot be overstated. Without immediate intervention, the entire region will bear the long-term consequences of unchecked military escalation and political destabilization.

Serhan Afacan is associate professor at Marmara University’s Institute for Middle East Studies and president of Center for Iranian Studies (İRAM).

Opinion

In a Psychedelic Arab World

Dr Khairi Janbek
March 19, 2025

Dr Khairi Janbek

The Arab world has been for some time now like a theme park with all the trappings. There are zones of fun and entertainment, with bright lights, cafes and restaurants with people living in them whilst other zones stand like halls of mirrors with distort images, chambers of horror, and ghost trains with their own population.

The ones who run both zones tend to be standing outside them frequently greeting each other. But the people of the entertainment zone are always wary that the people of the other zone may envy them, so they give them enough to let them carry on with their lives as best as they can.

The obsession with the geographical and civilizational unity of the Arab world has always inflated expectations of Arab solidarity as a tool to solve the problems of Arab societies ranging from economic development and good governance, to conflict resolution.

As the expectations go unmet, popular frustration at the weakness of one nation, prompt further calls for solidarity accompanied with anger from the other Arab people, however, it seems, and for all intents and purposes, the pan-Arab hopes seem to be always unreasonable. In fact when the colonialists thought that the Arab peoples should be grateful to each have their own nation-states across the geographical span, the Arab peoples, as a whole, felt cheated for not having a single, one-state to represent them.

As for the current Palestinian tragedy, its roots in recent terms have been planted in 1974, when the late King Hussein was put under extreme pressure to accept the notion that, the PLO, being the sole representative of the Palestinian people, in other words transferring the Arab burden of the Palestinian problem to the shoulders of the late Yasser Arafat.

Of course, one is not going to repeat the horrors which came after that regarding this issue, but the idea that the Palestinian issue being an Arab cause, ended there and then. The Palestinian issue went from being a political issue, to a mere human rights concern, with the option for the Arab states to support according to the levels of anger expressed by their own populace regarding the Palestinian people’s plight.

It was Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 that struck the final nail in the coffin of the illusion that there can be an Arab solution to Arab problems, but even this illusion did not apply to the Palestinian problem, because that concern was gone almost two decades earlier.

So today, it is natural for sympathy for the Palestinians to direct its call to the international community to react, because frankly this is the only quarter which can do something, whatever it may be, because the realization had set in from before that the Arabs will not do anything.

We live in times now, in which no Middle Eastern regime, in addition to those having a state within a state inside them, will be ever permitted to ever threaten Israel by the Trump administration, be that through the threats of dividing countries, or in throwing them to the jaws of poverty and destruction through economic extortion; in fact, we are in the era of enforced ugly peace.

Dr Janbek is a columnist based in Paris France.

Opinion

Israel, Trump and the Latest Bombing of Gaza

CrossFireArabia
March 18, 2025

Israel relaunched its bloody war on Gaza, with vehemence and callousness and with the blessing of the Donald Trump administration in the White House.

Its back to the “good old bloody days” of murder, mayhem and slaughter of mostly innocent women and children who have no part in the current war waged between Israel and Hamas.

Unwilling to quench its thirst for blood, Israel relaunched its war on the 364-kilometer Gaza Strip by killing over 322 people in the first five hours of early morning Tuesday while everyone was fast asleep.

Up until then it has been a “slight” rest bite reached through a ceasefire on 19 January between Hamas and Israel through US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators bringing an end to the daily killing of Gazans that today stands at 48,500 people.

Everyone is asking if the ceasefire is wrecked and stands in ruin on day 525, the total length of the carnage started on the people of Gaza soon after 7 October 2023, when about 1200 Israelis were killed.

Whatever the politics of the recent war, it has become amply clear the Israel slaughter has not been aimed at Hamas fighters, which it couldn’t eradicate even after 15 months of war on the Islamic organization but resulted in the mass killing of the women and children of Gaza.

The latest spate of dropping bombs on the people of Gaza, facilitated by the United States which stands as complicit in this genocide, sees no end light, but is seen as just the beginning although Gaza and its infrastructure is already annihilated with its people displaced and living in the wild and under the skies.

The world stands and waits to see, if the genocide will continue from this day onwards, or is it just a pressure tool to get Hamas to release the 59 or so Israeli prisoners it currently holds. If the latter is the case however, Hamas has long shown, it has a long breath and will not release the prisoners that originally were around 250 and now stands at the current number through exchange deals with the fact that the Israeli army has killed around 23 of them in failed rescue operations.

The latest bombings, carried from the air starting from the south of the strip on the southern city of Rafah, Nuseirat, Al Shati and Maghazi camps, and Deir Al Balah in the center of the enclave, including Gaza city and the destroyed northern areas, speaks of dark days are expected ahead.

Hamas are yet to respond militarily. There are couple of issues to consider here. Hamas officials have been talking to the Trump administration officials in the last couple of weeks about different paths.

Will that continue, particularly after this bloody debacle. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who long wanted to destroy Hamas, and thus the war to continue, said this time around, the latest military operation in Gaza is being carried out “in consultation” with Trump and his associates.

If this is the case, the latest Israeli deadly spate, may not last long, particularly because Trump is on record of stating that he doesn’t want the war to continue but wants to end it which means he will not continue to supply Israel with weapons indefinitely and there will come a time when he will stop.

But that might be a while before that and he may continue to tolerate the mass bombing of Gaza. However, since he is talking to different parties through his envoy Steve Witkoff, he will likely “manage” what Israel continues to militarily do in the Gaza Strip and be involved in a “stop-go” war process.

The problem with Trump is that also he is looking for different objectives in Gaza. He first wanted to displace its 2.2 million people to neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt. Now, he appears to be retracting from this position because of Arab and world pressure.

Will he backdown and order Israel for a quick “fix” and or let the war on Gaza continue by which time Hamas, will once again, start fighting Israel again, both in the Strip and through endlessly targeting its major cities, towns, settlements for the past 15 months.

Despite the fact that Trump said that “all hell will break lose” on Gaza if the war doesn’t stop and Hamas is not brought to heed, the US president is choosing to forget the Houthis, despite mass bombing them in the last couple of days. They promised they will continue to strike Israel if it continues to stand as an obstacle to humanitarian and food delivery to Israel and will not be deterred by US and British bombing of Yemen. And to prove their point, a ballistic missile was fired on the same day, Tuesday, after the Israeli bombing of the Strip.

Hence what Trump wants and what he will get on the ground are two different things. His wish to end the Israel-Hamas war and establish a “new Gaza” will not be achieved through parochial thinking.

The Palestinians are on the ground, they have no wish to go anywhere while Hamas continues to have a formidable fighting capability and have no qualms to going back to war. The fact they are talking to the mediating parties, including the US doesn’t mean they are ready to put their guns down and leave the grounds of Gaza.

Netanyahu must realize that unless he wants the whole Middle East region to be engaged in a perpetual long-term war. The question is Trump and the United States military establishment prepared for that?

The above-analysis is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website.

Opinion

How Do You Deal With a ‘Political Earthquake’?

CrossFireArabia
March 17, 2025

The Middle East has long been accustomed to dramatic events and repeated surprises. However, it is undeniable that what came before October 7 is fundamentally different from what followed.

This shift is not only due to the ongoing wars that have spread beyond Gaza to other fronts, nor solely because of the consequences these conflicts have triggered across the region. More significantly, it has exposed the harsh realities the region faces, from the collapse of the concept of the state and its implications to the erosion of national identities and the emergence of new ethnic, sectarian, and geographical standards reshaping political maps.

Over the past years, the failure of the nation-state model, coupled with its reduction to authoritarian concepts, has played a pivotal role in deepening the psychological division in many countries, a division that, in many cases, precedes geographical fragmentation.

In the current geopolitical landscape, Gaza is no longer the Gaza we once knew. With the absence of a viable Arab-led solution, the US administration, despite its often-contradictory diplomatic statements, still keeps the depopulation of Gaza on the table as a practical resolution. Meanwhile, the West Bank is experiencing Israeli operations aimed at bringing about a radical transformation, one that all parties may soon have to accept as a new reality.

Syria, too, has entered a state of turmoil that makes it increasingly difficult to revert to its former political and territorial structure. Whether through shifts in internal power dynamics or anticipated geographical and political changes, Syria is on a path of transformation.

These unprecedented changes, which directly impact Jordan, impose urgent requirements for adaptation and strategic engagement with new realities. This new era demands a shift in priorities, making “Jordanian-focused thinking” a fundamental approach to navigating the geopolitical and security challenges unfolding across the region.

This strategic recalibration must take place on three levels. The first involves managing relations with the current U.S. administration, which has been in the White House for only a few weeks yet has already triggered a geopolitical earthquake on the global stage. For Jordan to remain a key regional player, it must employ new tools and diplomatic tactics that emphasize effectiveness and tangible results, especially considering that this administration is highly focused on reassessing the utility of aid provided to its allies.

The second is the regional shift, where several key issues stand out. The evolving relationship with Israel, which is shifting dramatically and deteriorating from bad to worse, requires a reconsidered strategy for future engagement. The relationship with Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, demands greater attention, not only because Saudi Arabia remains the only pillar of stability in the region but also due to its economic and political influence, which could prove crucial for Jordan in the coming phase. In this context, the concept of “political and economic integration” should be the foundation for shaping and strengthening ties between the two countries.

Perhaps the most pressing regional challenge is Jordan’s approach to Syria. Changes are already unfolding in the areas adjacent to Jordan’s northern border, creating a new reality that Jordan must navigate carefully. It is imperative to formulate a strategy that not only secures borders but also leverages new political and economic configurations to serve Jordan’s long-term interests.

The third is the domestic, and most important recalibration, how does Jordan adapt to these external shifts and their internal repercussions? This phase demands a new political discourse and a fresh approach to managing internal affairs. Shielding Jordan from external shocks, narratives of fragmentation, sectarian polarization, and social discord requires a two-pronged strategic response: strengthening the bureaucratic system and reinforcing national identity.

This necessitates a well-crafted national narrative, a reinvigoration of collective national consciousness, and tangible policy actions that signal the beginning of a new phase of resilience and transformation, one that will be the defining test of the coming period.

Dr Amer Al Sabaileh is a columnist in the Jordan Times

Opinion

The A, B, C to Rebuilding Gaza

CrossFireArabia
March 13, 2025

By Dr Raad Mahmoud Al-Tal

According to the Gaza reconstruction plan report from the temporary Arab Summit in Cairo, Gaza’s economy shrank by 83 per cent in 2024. Unemployment rose to 80%, and inflation reached 309.4 per cent in October 2024 due to severe supply shortages. On the humanitarian side, 91 per cent of Gaza’s population faces food insecurity, and this number is expected to rise to 1.95 million by April 2025. The healthcare system is collapsing, with 64 per cent of primary health centers out of service, and 25 per cent of the injured require long-term rehabilitation. Education is also in crisis, with 745,000 children out of school because schools were either destroyed or used as shelters. Over a million children need psychological and social support, and there are between 17,000 and 18,000 unaccompanied children, which makes child care even more difficult.

The damage in Gaza is divided into three categories: areas completely destroyed, which need the rubble cleared and infrastructure rebuilt from scratch; semi-destroyed areas, which need repairs to restore basic services; and lightly damaged areas, which require limited work to restore services and ensure ongoing reconstruction. The damage is assessed by comparing the current situation to how things were before the crisis, and the affected assets are classified into three levels: fully destroyed, partially damaged, and lightly damaged.

The reconstruction plan has two phases. The first phase, early recovery, will take 6 months and cost $3 billion. This phase includes clearing rubble, repairing main roads, providing 200,000 temporary housing units, and restoring 60,000 damaged homes. The second phase, which is the main reconstruction phase, will take 5 years and cost $50 billion. It is split into two parts: The first part, lasting 2 years at a cost of $20 billion, involves finishing the rubble removal, building 200,000 homes, repairing 20,000 acres of farmland, and setting up water desalination plants and sewage treatment facilities. The second part, lasting 2.5 years at a cost of $30 billion, involves building 200,000 more homes, developing ports, creating an industrial zone, and building a coastal road.

Housing has been the hardest-hit sector, with 15,000 homes completely destroyed. The plan aims to build 150,000 new homes and provide 100,000 temporary homes, costing $15 billion. About 30 per cent of Gaza’s farmland was also destroyed, requiring the rehabilitation of 10,000 hectares at a cost of $5.6 billion. The water and electricity sectors also need significant investment to keep providing essential services to the people. The total cost of reconstruction is estimated at $53 billion over 10 years. The funds for this will come from international donors, humanitarian organizations, and local investments. Around $4.5 billion will be for development projects, and $18 billion will go toward infrastructure.

For the reconstruction plan to succeed, it is important to get enough financial resources to fix the huge damage in Gaza. This will help restore normal life and improve the economic and social situation, leading to long-term sustainable development. To ensure the plan works, it is crucial to have different sources of funding. These could include the United Nations, international financial organizations, donor countries, investment funds, government agencies, development banks, and civil society groups.

An international trust fund will be set up to manage the funds efficiently, ensuring transparency and proper oversight. The Egyptian government will also hold a high-level conference in Cairo, in partnership with the Palestinian Authority and the United Nations, to gather the necessary support for the reconstruction plan. This conference will bring together donor countries, international and regional financial institutions, the Palestinian and international private sectors, and civil society organizations. It will be a key event to secure financial resources and suggest investment projects that can be implemented with the help of supporting organizations.

The writer is head of the Economics Department – University of Jordan – [email protected]