Syria: A Hot Political Potato

By Dr Khairi Janbek

All eyes are on Syria, simply because the only thing known about how the new Syria will look like is frankly, the unknown. What is prevailing in the new predictions and analysis is at best, and at worst blunt fears.

Of course, this is understandable considering the composition of the groups which are now trying to run the country. What is vey disconcerting however, is how the international media presented the war prior to the fall of Damascus in no more than a side show, giving the impression that, as big Syrian cities fell one after the other in the hands of the rebels, that an agreement was likely to be struck which will solve the concept peaceably. Well, such an agreement was not struck, and the victorious rebellion became the hot potato in the hands of all.

Now, how will the new regime look like in Syria? Frankly your guess is as good as mine. Will they act momentarily in a pluralistic manner, then adopt political Islam as regime ideology? Again, only time will tell, but also that would depend primarily, on the prevailing regional and international actors and players.

For a start, the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey will not greatly depend on the shape of the new regime, so long of course, as the new regime in Damascus continues to protect the Russian interests in warm water bases, and be a wall against Kurdish armed groups threatening Turkish interests.

Then of course there is Israel, which after it destroyed Syrian military capabilities, has no fear of war with Damascus, but does fear the potential presence of a regime adopting political Islamist trappings on its borders, which it will use as an excuse use to expand and probably annex Syrian, and maybe Lebanese territories before the dust settles down.

However, when it comes to the Arab neighbors of Syria, Jordan and Iraq, it’s only natural they would feel concerned but for different reasons. For Jordan, the recent history of Iraqi political instability and the associated acts of terrorism are still fresh in the mind of everyone in the Kingdom, so in no uncertain terms, Jordan would wish to see on its border, a regime adopting political Islam, lest it suffers once more from terror acts that are likely to push for military action and in which it doesn’t wish to be involved in.

As for Iraq, the sectarian troubles are still fresh in the minds of everyone. Certainly the Iraqi government doesn’t wish to see a regime on its borders which has the potential of igniting an unwanted sectarian civil war. As for the rest of the Arab countries, the question remains theoretical – plainly speaking being against political Islam .

As for Syria itself, it’s rather banal to repeat the obvious which is, that it is pluralistic country. But, how can you mange such a country, if indeed this is the intention intention and not shoving it up everyone’s throat ideology by blood and fire.

For a start every community, ethnic and religious, has to feel secure, and secondly they need to know that they have a stake in the future of the country, and that can only happen by establishing a truly functioning parliament freely elected by all of its constituents, then adopt a prime ministerial system of government accountable to the people with a titular president of the republic. No political party should be prohibited to field parliamentary candidates except those associated with armed groups.

At the end of the day, the only thing which will turn the current victorious rebels into extremist islamists is the specter of internal civil conflict which everyone is trying to avoid.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian commentator currently based in Paris.

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Gaza Cracks Trump’s Image as ‘Peacemaker’

By Giorgio Cafiero

The Gaza ceasefire had been extremely fragile ever since its implementation on Jan. 19. Many analysts doubted that phase two would begin, and the main question was about when, not if, the ceasefire would fall apart. It came as no surprise when Israel completely ended the ceasefire on March 18 and resumed its genocidal war on Gaza, killing roughly 600 [1] Palestinians within the first four days after the truce collapsed.

It is beyond disturbing to think about what will come next for the 2.2 million people in Gaza, especially given that Israeli authorities imposed [2] a blockade on all humanitarian aid on March 2. While briefing the UN Security Council on the day Israel resumed its war, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher said [3] “food is rotting and medicines are expiring.” The Israelis quickly undid all humanitarian progress achieved by international actors during the 42-day ceasefire. “Essential survival resources needed are now being rationed,” warned [4] Fletcher.

For all the misleading and outright inaccurate reporting in the Western media, it is clear that Hamas wanted phase two to begin, which was supposed to take place on March 1. However, Israel wanted phase one extended and was against moving into phase two. Had the second phase begun, Hamas would have handed over all the remaining Israeli captives. Now, amid this intense warfare, Hamas claims it is considering US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s “Bridge Proposal,” which aims to extend the collapsed ceasefire into next month, beyond Ramadan and Passover, to permit negotiations for a permanent ceasefire to end this war.

It is not difficult to understand why this genocide resumed on March 18. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies in the government were crystal clear that they did not support the ceasefire and wanted Israeli military operations against Gaza to resume. It was only pressure from the incoming Donald Trump administration during the final days of Joe Biden’s presidency that led Tel Aviv to agree to the tenuous ceasefire. Now that the Trump administration removed that pressure on Israel and the American president went all-out with his rhetoric about “hell” in Gaza, Netanyahu received the green light from the White House to continue the genocide.


Trump’s desires and reality

What US President Donald Trump realistically sought to achieve with his obscene rhetoric about a “clean out” [6] of Gaza and outlandish talk of transforming the war-ravaged enclave into the “Riviera of the Middle East” [7] is a question for another article. Nonetheless, it is easy to conclude that such language emboldened the most right-wing and aggressive Israeli elements, including those in the government. These extremists have spent decades fantasizing about a second Nakba and establishing a Palestinian state outside Palestine.

Put simply, for Netanyahu and those around him to champion this plan of mass ethnic cleansing and forced displacement of millions of Palestinians into Egypt, Jordan, and perhaps also some Gulf Arab countries, continuing the war on Gaza is a necessary part of this process. After all, human history has shown that people don’t volunteer to leave their ancestral homeland but typically only do as a result of massive bloodshed.

The Israeli leadership understands this about the Palestinians and their quest to remain on their land. So much was on display with the leaflets [8] that Israel’s military recently dropped on Gaza, which threatened to make Trump’s plan for a “clean out” of Gaza the new reality.

To be sure, Israel’s domestic politics and Netanyahu’s own legal situation were relevant factors too. By restarting the war on Gaza, Netanyahu was able to secure stability within his own coalition. Now, not only is there no reason for him to fear more cabinet members quitting the coalition, but former Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir who left in January because of the ceasefire has returned [9] due to the genocide’s resumption.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s testimony in his corruption trial, set for the day that the war on Gaza recommenced, was postponed, [10] highlighting how “security developments” [11] shield him from legal consequences for his alleged [12] breach of trust, bribery, and fraud.

A key question is, where does this all leave Trump? After all, he campaigned on being a “peacemaker” president. While delivering his inaugural address just over two months ago, Trump declared, [13] “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”

At this point, Trump might find himself trapped in Gaza, preventing him from reducing the US military footprint in the Middle East. Trump is escalating conflicts in the region—from Gaza to Yemen and possibly soon Iran—that could keep the US bogged down in this part of the world, which is the opposite of his promises regarding US foreign policy if elected to a second term. It remains to be seen how Trump’s support for Israel’s actions in Gaza and his escalation in Yemen—closely tied to Palestine—will impact his standing among his MAGA base.

The author is the CEO of Gulf States Analytics

[1] https://www.euronews.com/2025/03/22/israel-orders-idf-troops-to-advance-deeper-into-gaza-as-renewed-operation-expands

[2] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/02/middleeast/israel-halts-gaza-humanitarian-aid-intl-hnk/index.html

[3, 4] https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/03/1161246

[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-intensifying-gaza-strikes-press-hamas-into-freeing-hostages-defence-2025-03-21/

[6] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/middleeast/trump-clean-out-gaza-middle-east-intl/index.html

[7] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trumps-gaza-israel-plans-riviera-rcna190748

[8] https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-drops-leaflets-saying-no-one-will-care-if-gazans-vanish

[9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/18/israels-ben-gvir-to-rejoin-netanyahus-government

[10,11,12] https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/report-netanyahus-testimony-corruption-trial-postponed-due-gaza-war

[13] https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/the-inaugural-address/

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The Middle East Octopus

By Dr Khairi Janbek

When we think of contemporary Iran, one always believes that the Arab Middle East had always been dominated by three Non-Arab American allies: Iran of the Shah, Turkey and Israel. One thinks that those “neighborhood police stations” were the guarantors of stability through their convergence, and at times contradictions in the age of Cold War and oil. However, the Shah of Iran was deposed and the anti-communist Cold War ended, but that didn’t mean that oil stopped becoming important nor that both Russia and China were no longer threats.

One would say, that the rehabilitation of Iran and possibly turning it into a negotiations partner aims at keeping the third angle of the police stations triangle going, because non of the Arab countries, no matter how much they tried, could never replace Iran, because no “Arab police station” is permitted to emerge as a third angle.

Having said that, it would be beyond naive to think that the expansion of Iran’s power and influence happened by stealth or escaped the notice of the US and NATO. After all, Iran grew to become a Red Sea country through its influence on the Houthis in Yemen, a Mediterranean country through its influence in Syria as well Lebanon through Hezbollah, and the major Gulf country through its supporters in Iraq. In fact this Iranian domination of space is what has created a common space between all its long arm organizations in the region.

Essentially, if we compare Iran to an octopus, all those various groups are its tentacles, and they all serve the purpose of Iran’s strategic interests, albeit not through a push-button approach, but through not taking any action which would not please their master Iran. Of course, this puts Iran in a strong position to be a major player in the region and an inescapable negotiations partner for the US, which is also convenient for the Americans, in order to remind their Arab allies who is their protector in a region policed by Turkey, Israel and Iran.

Of course, this takes us to the point of saying that, for all intents and purposes, for the Americans a trusted adversary is more important than distrusted friends, and that it would be absurd to think that all those long arms of Iran in the Arab world can be amputated by military means; they certainly can be weakened, but without the consent of Iran and without the right price, so long as it remains behind them, nothing much can change.

At this point, from what one can only see, is that no one in their right mind or otherwise, will permit a war to emerge in which Israel is pitted against Iran and the US as well as NATO putting all their weight behind Israel and forcing the Arabs to choose their camp. That would be the scenario of the end of the world as we know it , or with major civil wars in the Arab countries controlled by the tentacles of Iran, and no one wants that.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris

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