Israel Hayom reported that the US President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) after taking office on January 20. The newspaper added that the sanctions “will target both individual ICC personnel, including judges and prosecutors, and the institution as a whole.”

These sanctions came after the ICC’s arrest warrants were issued for the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to force it to withdraw the warrants.

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What Will The Future Hold For Palestine in 2025?

In 2024, there were a host of startling developments occurring in the Middle East and the wider world that impacted Palestine, most of them unforeseen 12 months ago: the continuation of the unrelenting Israeli genocide in Gaza, the battlefield defeat of Hezbollah and the devastation in Lebanon, the overthrow of Bashar Assad in Syria, the isolation of Iran, the election of Donald Trump, and a series of seminal rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC).

All of these seismic events make the assignment of imagining what Palestine’s future will be in 2025 a precarious task. Yet, with caution thrown to the wind, we can make some educated guesses on six leading features.


Leading scenarios for Palestine’s future

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency will certainly encourage Israel’s accelerating subjugation of the Palestinians. His major appointments on the Middle East – including his secretary of state, his ambassador to Israel, and his two regional envoys – are all diplomatic gifts to Israel’s far-right nationalist government. His political instincts are all about respecting the strong and disparaging the weak. The only restraint that Trump may impose on Israel would result from his quest for a substantive deal with Saudi Arabia, which is publicly demanding a credible path to Palestinian statehood.

A genuine Palestinian state is further away than ever. In 2025, more Palestinian land will be confiscated, more illegal Israeli settlements will be built, and settler violence, already at record levels, will only intensify. While Trump might restrict Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from formally annexing parts of the West Bank, de facto Israeli annexation will continue unabated. The ability of the Palestinian Authority to shape events in its favor will likely shrink even further. As for the comatose peace process, the Palestinians long ago arrived at a traffic intersection, and the red light never changed. It remains red today, its only color.

The genocidal war on Gaza will finally end with a formal ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, and some Palestinian detainees. However, the unimaginable toll of deaths and suffering among the Palestinian civilians in Gaza will continue, as starvation, infectious diseases, a decimated economy, and a devastated landscape afflict the population. Hamas won’t be completely defeated, but it has suffered a grievous blow in the short run. Israel will push hard to build settlements in the north and for clan warlords to run the rest of Gaza, which Trump might allow. Another great test will be the raising of the $40-60 billion needed for the reconstruction of Gaza; this will create tension between Trump and his Gulf states allies, who will resist paying the lion’s share of the consequences of a war they opposed.

Will the international community face the Palestine issue in 2025?

Respecting Palestine, the United Nations will face some of its most perilous challenges in 2025. The one-year deadline set by the General Assembly for Israel to completely end its occupation of Palestine arrives next September, with Israel and the US committed to defying the obligation. In addition, Israel – with Trump’s backing – is seeking to dismantle UNRWA, the UN agency that delivers education, health, and social services to Palestinian refugees in the Levant. The challenge for Europe and the Arab world will be whether they will defend the UN, its core commitment to successfully resolving the oldest item on its political agenda (Palestine), and the preservation of its largest agency.

Israel’s diplomatic isolation will continue, even as its relationship with its superpower patron will deepen. Its outlier status at the United Nations – particularly at the General Assembly and the Human Rights Council – will see even more lopsided votes against its 57-year-old occupation, its denial of Palestinian self-determination, and its abuse of international law. The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will make him politically radioactive, with heads of state and government that have signed the 1998 Rome Statute refusing to meet him. Pressure will grow within Europe to rethink various trade and cooperation agreements with Israel as a reaction to the war and its horrendous humanitarian consequences.


Role of international law more important for Palestine than ever

The role of international law in pronouncing on the question of Palestine will become even more momentous in 2025. After the signature rulings by the ICJ and the ICC in 2024, we are likely to see a growing movement to insist upon a rights-based approach to peacemaking in Palestine, replacing the discredited (but still very much alive) realpolitik approach of the Oslo process.

The momentum created by the recent genocide reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch will continue to echo through UN corridors and foreign ministries. But there are also headwinds: Republicans in the US Senate are determined to sanction the ICC for issuing the arrest warrant against Netanyahu, meaning that the viability of the court will require a stout defense by the 124 members of the Rome Statute, particularly from Europe.

As we learned from the past year, there will almost certainly be unexpected surprises in 2025. And while there will continue to be dark times for the Palestinians in the year ahead, the war in Gaza has also sparked a global movement of solidarity – particularly among the young – that will continue to inspire courageous thinking and bold acts. Its lasting impact should never be underestimated.

Michael Lynk he author is a professor emeritus of law at Western University, London, Ontario, Canada. He served as the 7th United Nations special rapporteur for human rights in the occupied Palestinian territory between 2016 and 2022. Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu’s editorial policy.

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Netanyahu Knows I Want The Gaza War to End, Trump Says

US President-elect Donald Trump told the Time magazine, Thursday, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows he wants the Gaza genocide war to end.

“The Middle East is going to get solved. I think it’s more complicated than the Russia-Ukraine, but I think it’s easier to solve,” Trump said, according to a transcript of the interview.

The interview appears in the upcoming issue of Time, which named Trump as “Person of the Year” for the second time, the first being after he first won the White House in 2016.

Speaking about the Israeli assault in Gaza, Trump said Netanyahu “knows I want it to end.”
According to Time, Trump informed Netanyahu of his stance during phone calls the two held during the US election campaign according to the Quds News Network.

Asked if Netanyahu has given him assurances about ending the Gaza war, Trump declined to respond directly, saying, “I don’t want people from either side killed… whether it’s the Palestinians and the Israelis and all of the different entities that we have in the Middle East.”

When Time asked if he trusted Netanyahu going into the second term, Trump took a second before answering: “I don’t trust anybody.”

Asked if he still supports his 2020 “deal of the century,” Trump claimed: “I support a plan of peace, and it can take different forms.”

“I support whatever solution we can do to get peace. There are other ideas other than two-state, but I support whatever is necessary to get not just peace, [but] a lasting peace. It can’t go on where every five years you end up in tragedy. There are other alternatives,” he said.

In the Time interview, Trump also would not come out against a possible Israeli annexation of the West Bank.

Asked whether he still stands behind his “deal of the century,” or if he would let Israel proceed with the annexation, Trump responded: “What I want is a deal where there’s going to be peace and where the killing stops.”

Asked again if he would prevent Netanyahu from annexing the West Bank, Trump avoided responding directly. Instead, he acknowledged having stopped Netanyahu from taking the step.

“There are numerous ways you can do it. You can do it two-state, but there are numerous ways it can be done,” Trump reiterated. “I’d like to see everybody be happy. Everybody goes about their lives, and people stop from dying. That includes on many different fronts.”

On January 28, 2020, Trump formally announced his long-awaited Middle East Peace Plan to resolve the seven-decade-long Israel’s occupation of Palestine. He hailed it as “the deal of the century”. It controversially accepts Israeli calls to annex the Jordan Valley and Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and recognizes all parts of occupied East Jerusalem as part of Israel’s capital. These include large parts of the city where more than 300,000 Palestinians live, the Old City and holy sites, including the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

The plan says a Palestinian state would be established only when Palestinian leadership wholly accepts Israel’s new borders, disarms completely, removes Hamas from power in Gaza and agrees to Israeli security oversight on all of its territories until a point in the future deemed ripe for withdrawal.

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Can Trump Get a Gaza Deal From Netanyahu?  

The Israeli newspaper Maariv stated that the incoming US President Donald Trump is putting intense pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring the exchange deal of prisoners closer.

It added that the talks are proceeding not only  on one or two channels. But negotiations on Gaza are moving along three channels:  

Exchange deal

A military channel aimed at ending the war, a political channel aimed at maturing into an exchange deal, and a humanitarian channel for talks related to restoring the Gaza Strip and returning life to normal.

It stressed that the three channels are complementary to each other and are in the hands of the Egyptians.

It stressed that the main points of the agreement stipulate that the Israeli army must stop the war in stages and gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip. The Rafah crossing will be opened to allow hundreds of aid trucks to enter every day, and Israel will release hundreds of security prisoners and receive prisoners. The implementation of the interim agreement will be supervised by America and other countries, as in Lebanon.

What plan?

According to the newspaper, in recent weeks, the Egyptians have been working away from the spotlight to bring Hamas and the Palestinian Authority closer together develop a plan to establish a new government entity in the Gaza Strip once a ceasefire is declared.

The proposal talks about a body to manage the civilian affairs of the Gaza Strip and will be staffed by 10 to 15 professionals who are not affiliated with any movement, and with an already official name: “The Social Committee to Support the Residents of Gaza”.

Its no coincidence the Egyptians have given it this title, nor the “unity government”, although it will operate under the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. The Egyptians chose this name to be accepted by the Israeli government.

The newspaper stressed the agreement document the Egyptians extracted from Hamas and the Palestinian Authority is an achievement in itself and the Israeli government will have to decide soon whether handing over the Gaza Strip to this committee is acceptable to it or not according to Al Rai Al Youm.

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Trump’s Mideast Utterings ‘Hot Air’

By Abdel Bari Atwan

After the private dinner hosted by Donald Trump “in honor” of Mrs. Sara Netanyahu, the US President-elect immediately threatened to set the Middle East on fire if the Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip tunnels, guarded by the Qassam Brigades and the Al-Quds Brigades, were not released before his return to the White House on 20 January 2025.

Trump went further when he threatened the Palestinian resistance factions with paying a heavy price if the hostages were not released, and directed his threats specifically at the leaders of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements.

In his first term as US President, he made many similar threats, such as destroying North Korea, subjugating China, forcing Mexico to pay the bill for the border wall to keep out immigrants, and turning Iran into another Hiroshima if it responded to the assassination of the martyrs, Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

Trump – an “unruly” professional liar – did not dare to carry out any of these threats, and perhaps the only threat he carried out was withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran in 2017, which backfired and came as a major gift to Iran it never dreamed of, which since developed, theoretically and practically, into an unofficially declared nuclear state.

We would like to tell Trump his threats will not move a hair on the head of the smallest hungry or injured Palestinian infant in the steadfast and heroic Gaza Strip.

If his partner [Netanyahu] in the extermination war and ethnic cleansing and who used all kinds of mass destruction weapons to bomb Gaza – executed more than 45,000 martyrs, three-quarters of whom, children and women, and destroyed 95 percent of their homes – did not succeed in releasing these Israeli prisoners, despite advanced US intelligence, what does Trump have that is stronger and more effective than that?  Hitting the Gaza Strip with a nuclear bomb, as his criminal friend Senator Lindsey Graham suggests?!

The heroic Al-Qassam Brigades and Al-Quds Brigades have not submitted to all this bloody Israeli pressure and did not release the prisoners throughout the past 14 months. All the pressure and rounds of negotiations sponsored by America failed, unfortunately with Arab collusion; the USA wanted to trap Hamas and Jihad which firmly stuck to their conditions, and did not give up a single inch.

So what more can the reckless Trump do?

We need to remind Trump and draw his attention to a set of points he must have forgotten about in the midst of his euphoria on his victory over his naive and foolish opponent Kamala Harris:

First, the resistance in Gaza is still strong, ongoing, and inflicting huge and humiliating losses on the Israeli enemy and its forces, and from zero-distance, which reflects the heroism and courage of its men.  Not a single mujahid surrendered, all fought until martyrdom.

Second, there is not a single American aircraft carrier now in the Middle East and its seas, whether it is red, white or Arab, due to the blessed Yemeni missiles. It is enough to point out the attack with naval ballistic missiles that hit the carrier Abraham Lincoln a few days ago, which escaped with heavy casualties and damaged three destroyers and other ships. The day before yesterday, a Yemeni hypersonic missile struck a military base in the heart of occupied Jaffa.

Third, the brave and courageous Trump did not dare respond to the Iranian missile that shot down his largest drone in the Gulf, the “RQ-4 Global Hawk” in 2019 (costing $300 million) after it deviated from its course several meters inside Iranian territory.

Fourth, great America withdrew from Afghanistan, defeated and humiliated, a few months after Biden took power from you. We all witnessed, and the whole world at that, the great escape of American forces in a way that reflects the height of humiliation.

Trump no longer frightens anyone, and in his new version he did not dare utter a single word of criticism at Russian President Vladimir Putin, who defeated his country on the plains and coasts of Ukraine, and cut off and annexed more than 20 percent of its “territory”.

Trump did not dare utter the name of China, which was his number one enemy in his first term, and let us not forget in this haste to touch on North Korea and its leader Kim Jong-un, who humiliated and degraded him, and brought him to Hanoi and Singapore in two summit meetings, from which he returned to Washington with his head bowed.

Perhaps only some Arabs who were forced to accept the humiliating normalization and his “Deal of the Century” during his first term will be afraid of Trump and his threats. But times have changed, and there is now a major superpower called the “Axis of Resistance” with a mighty head and long, deadly arms.

Above all, there is the new, powerful BRICS organization, which will not end Trump’s second term in the White House (four years) until the US dollar exhales most of its last breath. The days lie ahead, Mr. Trump!

This is a translated piece from Arabic by Mr Abdel Bari Atwan, chief editor of Al Raialyoum website and reprinted on www.crossfirearabia.com.

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