In a Psychedelic Arab World

Dr Khairi Janbek

The Arab world has been for some time now like a theme park with all the trappings. There are zones of fun and entertainment, with bright lights, cafes and restaurants with people living in them whilst other zones stand like halls of mirrors with distort images, chambers of horror, and ghost trains with their own population.

The ones who run both zones tend to be standing outside them frequently greeting each other. But the people of the entertainment zone are always wary that the people of the other zone may envy them, so they give them enough to let them carry on with their lives as best as they can.

The obsession with the geographical and civilizational unity of the Arab world has always inflated expectations of Arab solidarity as a tool to solve the problems of Arab societies ranging from economic development and good governance, to conflict resolution.

As the expectations go unmet, popular frustration at the weakness of one nation, prompt further calls for solidarity accompanied with anger from the other Arab people, however, it seems, and for all intents and purposes, the pan-Arab hopes seem to be always unreasonable. In fact when the colonialists thought that the Arab peoples should be grateful to each have their own nation-states across the geographical span, the Arab peoples, as a whole, felt cheated for not having a single, one-state to represent them.

As for the current Palestinian tragedy, its roots in recent terms have been planted in 1974, when the late King Hussein was put under extreme pressure to accept the notion that, the PLO, being the sole representative of the Palestinian people, in other words transferring the Arab burden of the Palestinian problem to the shoulders of the late Yasser Arafat.

Of course, one is not going to repeat the horrors which came after that regarding this issue, but the idea that the Palestinian issue being an Arab cause, ended there and then. The Palestinian issue went from being a political issue, to a mere human rights concern, with the option for the Arab states to support according to the levels of anger expressed by their own populace regarding the Palestinian people’s plight.

It was Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 that struck the final nail in the coffin of the illusion that there can be an Arab solution to Arab problems, but even this illusion did not apply to the Palestinian problem, because that concern was gone almost two decades earlier.

So today, it is natural for sympathy for the Palestinians to direct its call to the international community to react, because frankly this is the only quarter which can do something, whatever it may be, because the realization had set in from before that the Arabs will not do anything.

We live in times now, in which no Middle Eastern regime, in addition to those having a state within a state inside them, will be ever permitted to ever threaten Israel by the Trump administration, be that through the threats of dividing countries, or in throwing them to the jaws of poverty and destruction through economic extortion; in fact, we are in the era of enforced ugly peace.

Dr Janbek is a columnist based in Paris France.

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Israel, Trump and the Latest Bombing of Gaza

Israel relaunched its bloody war on Gaza, with vehemence and callousness and with the blessing of the Donald Trump administration in the White House.

Its back to the “good old bloody days” of murder, mayhem and slaughter of mostly innocent women and children who have no part in the current war waged between Israel and Hamas.

Unwilling to quench its thirst for blood, Israel relaunched its war on the 364-kilometer Gaza Strip by killing over 322 people in the first five hours of early morning Tuesday while everyone was fast asleep.

Up until then it has been a “slight” rest bite reached through a ceasefire on 19 January between Hamas and Israel through US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators bringing an end to the daily killing of Gazans that today stands at 48,500 people.

Everyone is asking if the ceasefire is wrecked and stands in ruin on day 525, the total length of the carnage started on the people of Gaza soon after 7 October 2023, when about 1200 Israelis were killed.

Whatever the politics of the recent war, it has become amply clear the Israel slaughter has not been aimed at Hamas fighters, which it couldn’t eradicate even after 15 months of war on the Islamic organization but resulted in the mass killing of the women and children of Gaza.

The latest spate of dropping bombs on the people of Gaza, facilitated by the United States which stands as complicit in this genocide, sees no end light, but is seen as just the beginning although Gaza and its infrastructure is already annihilated with its people displaced and living in the wild and under the skies.

The world stands and waits to see, if the genocide will continue from this day onwards, or is it just a pressure tool to get Hamas to release the 59 or so Israeli prisoners it currently holds. If the latter is the case however, Hamas has long shown, it has a long breath and will not release the prisoners that originally were around 250 and now stands at the current number through exchange deals with the fact that the Israeli army has killed around 23 of them in failed rescue operations.

The latest bombings, carried from the air starting from the south of the strip on the southern city of Rafah, Nuseirat, Al Shati and Maghazi camps, and Deir Al Balah in the center of the enclave, including Gaza city and the destroyed northern areas, speaks of dark days are expected ahead.

Hamas are yet to respond militarily. There are couple of issues to consider here. Hamas officials have been talking to the Trump administration officials in the last couple of weeks about different paths.

Will that continue, particularly after this bloody debacle. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who long wanted to destroy Hamas, and thus the war to continue, said this time around, the latest military operation in Gaza is being carried out “in consultation” with Trump and his associates.

If this is the case, the latest Israeli deadly spate, may not last long, particularly because Trump is on record of stating that he doesn’t want the war to continue but wants to end it which means he will not continue to supply Israel with weapons indefinitely and there will come a time when he will stop.

But that might be a while before that and he may continue to tolerate the mass bombing of Gaza. However, since he is talking to different parties through his envoy Steve Witkoff, he will likely “manage” what Israel continues to militarily do in the Gaza Strip and be involved in a “stop-go” war process.

The problem with Trump is that also he is looking for different objectives in Gaza. He first wanted to displace its 2.2 million people to neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt. Now, he appears to be retracting from this position because of Arab and world pressure.  

Will he backdown and order Israel for a quick “fix” and or let the war on Gaza continue by which time Hamas, will once again, start fighting Israel again, both in the Strip and through endlessly targeting its major cities, towns, settlements for the past 15 months.

Despite the fact that Trump said that “all hell will break lose” on Gaza if the war doesn’t stop and Hamas is not brought to heed, the US president is choosing to forget the Houthis, despite mass bombing them in the last couple of days. They promised they will continue to strike Israel if it continues to stand as an obstacle to humanitarian and food delivery to Israel and will not be deterred by US and British bombing of Yemen. And to prove their point, a ballistic missile was fired on the same day, Tuesday, after the Israeli bombing of the Strip.

Hence what Trump wants and what he will get on the ground are two different things. His wish to end the Israel-Hamas war and establish a “new Gaza” will not be achieved through parochial thinking.

The Palestinians are on the ground, they have no wish to go anywhere while Hamas continues to have a formidable fighting capability and have no qualms to going back to war. The fact they are talking to the mediating parties, including the US doesn’t mean they are ready to put their guns down and leave the grounds of Gaza.

Netanyahu must realize that unless he wants the whole Middle East region to be engaged in a perpetual long-term war. The question is Trump and the United States military establishment prepared for that?

The above-analysis is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website.

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White House Complicity: Bloody Days Return to Gaza

The Israeli army said early Tuesday that it has conducted airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, the largest since a ceasefire with the Palestinian group Hamas took effect on Jan. 19.

“Based on directives from the political echelon, IDF and Shin Bet forces are launching a large-scale attack on Hamas terrorist targets throughout the Gaza Strip,” military spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X.

Local media, citing the Palestinian civil emergency service, said at least 200 people have been killed, including women and children.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have instructed the army to take “strong action” against Hamas in Gaza, the Prime Ministry’s Office said.

“This follows Hamas’s repeated refusal to release our hostages, as well as its rejection of all of the proposals it has received from US Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff and from the mediators,” it said in a statement.

The army is attacking Hamas targets in the Strip “to achieve the objectives of the war as they have been determined by the political echelon, including the release of all of our hostages, the living and the deceased.”

“Israel will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength. The operational plan was presented by the IDF over the weekend and approved by the political leadership,” it added.

Hamas said the Israeli government has declared war on Gaza by breaking the ceasefire agreement.

“We demand that the mediators hold Netanyahu and the Zionist occupation fully responsible for violating and overturning the agreement,” it said in a statement.

Israel consulted with US: White House

A White House spokesperson confirmed Monday that Israel consulted with the US on its airstrikes in Gaza.

“As President (Donald) Trump has made it clear: Hamas, the Houthis, Iran, all those who seek to terrorize not just Israel, but also the United States of America, will see a price to pay. All hell will break loose,” Karoline Leavitt told Fox News.

Ahead of a meeting Tuesday of the UN Security Council on Gaza, Israeli ambassador to the UN Danny Danon said the country will show “no mercy” against its enemies.

“Let me be very clear: Israel will not stop until all of our hostages are back home. We will make it very clear to the Security Council that if they want to stop the war in Gaza, they have to ensure that the hostages are coming back to Israel,” Danon said.

The UN did not immediately react to the strikes, but deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said the UN has consistently warned against a return to fighting in Gaza.

Despite the ceasefire, local authorities in Gaza had reported almost daily violations by the Israeli army.

Israeli attacks have killed more than 48,500 Palestinians since October 2023, most of them women and children, and left Gaza in ruins.

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants in November last year for Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the enclave.

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Trump: ‘Nobody is Expelling Any Palestinians,’ From Gaza

U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to reverse his controversial plan to forcibly expel Palestinians from Gaza, following widespread rejection, stating, “nobody is expelling any Palestinians” from the war-torn enclave.

During an Oval Office meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin on Wednesday, a reporter asked about Trumps plans to expel Palestinians from Gaza and whether he had discussed the matter with the Irish leader. Trump responded, “Nobody is expelling any Palestinians,” according to the Quds News Network.

Trump had previously proposed permanently and forcibly displacing Palestinians from Gaza and transforming the area into what he called the “Riviera of the Middle East.” His plan envisioned a developed, Palestinian-free zone under US control and ownership, where “the world’s people” could reside.

He also suggested that Jordan and Egypt take in displaced Palestinians, a proposal that both countries firmly rejected. Legal experts, along with Palestinians, condemned the plan, calling it “ethnic cleansing.”

Hamas has welcomed Trump’s Wednesday remarks. Hazem Qassem, spokesperson for Hamas, said, “If President Trump’s statements represent a reversal of the plan of displacing the people of Gaza, they are welcomed. We call for this stance to be followed by holding the occupation accountable for implementing all ceasefire agreements,” urging Trump not to “align with the extremist right-wing Zionist agenda.”

Meanwhile Jordan, Thursday welcomed President Trump’s remarks made on Wednesday, which affirmed that the residents of Gaza would not be required to leave the war-torn Strip, according to a Foreign Ministry statement.

Sufyan Qudah, the ministry’s spokesperson, reiterated Jordan’s support for efforts aimed at achieving a peace that is acceptable to all parties, highlighting that both Jordan and the United States are partners in these efforts according to The Jordan Times.

Qudah also underscored the importance of securing a just and lasting peace, one that leads to the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. He reaffirmed that the two-state solution remains the only viable pathway to ensuring long-term security, stability, and peace in the region.

Trump said on Wednesday that “nobody is expelling any Palestinians from Gaza,” in response to a question during a meeting in the White House with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin.

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Talking to Hamas: What is Trump up to?

There are not enough leaks about the “backchannel” that began late last month in Doha between Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, and leaders of Hamas’ political bureau (reports indicate that the Hamas delegation was led by Khalil al-Hayya). However, what is striking is that these talks coincided with an escalation in threats from both Trump and Netanyahu toward Hamas, warning of a resumption of war and a more severe course of action. Moreover, Israeli security sources indicate that there is a plan to begin the practical implementation of the displacement scheme announced by Trump!

The key question here is what lies behind the Trump administration’s decision to open a secret channel with Hamas at this specific time, especially when negotiations between Hamas and Israel regarding the second phase are stalling. This is particularly intriguing given that the Trump administration has shown a tougher stance toward Hamas than his predecessor, Joe Biden. Moreover, the Doha meetings coincided with Trump receiving a number of former detainees held by Hamas and issuing a strongly worded message, what he described as a serious threat. What is the significance of these parallel and simultaneous steps taken by the Trump administration toward Hamas?

Those close to the Trump administration suggest that this move is nothing more than a “tactical shift” in the US approach without any fundamental changes. The goal is to ensure that Hamas receives the message directly and forcefully, without intermediaries or misinterpretation. This explanation is logical and, in fact, the most likely scenario, as there are no real initiatives or substantial shifts in the US administration’s position. This is especially evident in the fact that the only stance issued by the U.S. National Security Council rejected the Egyptian-Arab proposal, reaffirming President Trump’s commitment to his plan.

So what message did Boehler convey to Hamas leaders? Or, in other words, what is the deal being offered to them? It is clear that the U.S. offer revolves around extending the first phase, or even calling it the second phase, in exchange for the release of all prisoners held by Hamas, including Americans, as well as the safe exit of Hamas and Qassam Brigades leaders from Gaza and the establishment of a long-term ceasefire in the Strip. However, does this include details about the day after the war? It remains unclear whether the U.S. message addressed that issue. 

Nevertheless, the American stance remains unchanged, ending Hamas’ rule, disarming the movement, or effectively abandoning its military wing. It is also unknown whether the US has a specific policy if Hamas decides to transition into a political party that adopts peaceful resistance, for example.

Of course, the alternative Trump offers Hamas, should they reject these conditions, is the resumption of war, greater destruction in Gaza, and a forced displacement campaign against Palestinians. But the question that Hamas leaders are likely posing to Trump’s envoy is: What is the value of this threat if, in the end, what you are offering is nothing but the displacement of Palestinians? Why should we accept your terms, release the prisoners, lay down our arms, and leave Gaza if the outcome in both cases is the same? It is unclear whether Boehler had an answer to this question, or perhaps why Trump refuses the Arab plan, which is the most realistic and logical proposal presented so far.

On the other side, an important question arises: Is Hamas’ position unified between Doha and Gaza? There is significant room for interpretation and differences in the language coming from the Qassam Brigades on one hand and Hamas’ political bureau, particularly from one of the movement’s senior politicians, Mousa Abu Marzouk, on the other. It is also unclear whether Khalil al-Hayya is truly authorized to make such a crucial decision for the movement or what the limits of his mandate are. Is there any acceptance of the idea of a safe passage for the movement’s leaders in Gaza or laying down arms and transitioning into a peaceful movement? Or does Hamas still insist on maintaining both political and military strategies despite the severe imbalance of power and the massive destruction inflicted on Gaza and its people? All the choices are harsh and difficult.

Mohammad Abu Rumman is a columnist in the Jordan Times

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