When we think of contemporary Iran, one always believes that the Arab Middle East had always been dominated by three Non-Arab American allies: Iran of the Shah, Turkey and Israel. One thinks that those “neighborhood police stations” were the guarantors of stability through their convergence, and at times contradictions in the age of Cold War and oil. However, the Shah of Iran was deposed and the anti-communist Cold War ended, but that didn’t mean that oil stopped becoming important nor that both Russia and China were no longer threats.
One would say, that the rehabilitation of Iran and possibly turning it into a negotiations partner aims at keeping the third angle of the police stations triangle going, because non of the Arab countries, no matter how much they tried, could never replace Iran, because no “Arab police station” is permitted to emerge as a third angle.
Having said that, it would be beyond naive to think that the expansion of Iran’s power and influence happened by stealth or escaped the notice of the US and NATO. After all, Iran grew to become a Red Sea country through its influence on the Houthis in Yemen, a Mediterranean country through its influence in Syria as well Lebanon through Hezbollah, and the major Gulf country through its supporters in Iraq. In fact this Iranian domination of space is what has created a common space between all its long arm organizations in the region.
Essentially, if we compare Iran to an octopus, all those various groups are its tentacles, and they all serve the purpose of Iran’s strategic interests, albeit not through a push-button approach, but through not taking any action which would not please their master Iran. Of course, this puts Iran in a strong position to be a major player in the region and an inescapable negotiations partner for the US, which is also convenient for the Americans, in order to remind their Arab allies who is their protector in a region policed by Turkey, Israel and Iran.
Of course, this takes us to the point of saying that, for all intents and purposes, for the Americans a trusted adversary is more important than distrusted friends, and that it would be absurd to think that all those long arms of Iran in the Arab world can be amputated by military means; they certainly can be weakened, but without the consent of Iran and without the right price, so long as it remains behind them, nothing much can change.
At this point, from what one can only see, is that no one in their right mind or otherwise, will permit a war to emerge in which Israel is pitted against Iran and the US as well as NATO putting all their weight behind Israel and forcing the Arabs to choose their camp. That would be the scenario of the end of the world as we know it , or with major civil wars in the Arab countries controlled by the tentacles of Iran, and no one wants that.
The Houthis are back firing at the heart of the Israeli depth. The military escalation is increasing despite US President Donald Trump’s warning that the Yemeni group, also called Ansar Allah, are set to be destroyed. But there is no proof of that as yet!
Ever since Israel restarted its military campaign on Gaza on 19 March, exactly two months after it ceased its military operations on the enclave, the Houthis reinitiated its trajectories, drones and hypersonic missiles on Israel. It adopted an eye-for-eye point of view — that is as long as Israel stops humanitarian aid to Gaza, Houthi missiles would continue on the Zionist state.
The latest Houthi ballistic missiles were fired Wednesday during the day, a first-time shocker for these trajectories are delivered in the middle of the night. It was reported by the Hebrew media that millions hurried to underground shelters where sirens went off in 250 cities, towns, and settlements to the chagrin of many Israelis whose lives were turned upside down in the war on Gaza.
Wednesday will be remembered as a hard day for many as the ballistic missiles, which according to the Israeli army were intercepted and shot down from the air by counter trajectories. Such a series of Israeli military actions sent an intense amount of debris hurling down across a wide area of central and southern Israel including in Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.
Analysts are saying it’s back to the old days of attempting to readdress the strategic equilibrium of Houthis and Hezbollah missiles targeting the Israeli depth. While Hezbollah is on the border with Lebanon, the Houthi missiles, and their success in reaching their targets, were fired all the way from Yemen, 2000 kilometers away into Israel.
This time, and like before during the course of 2024 where hundreds of trajectories were fired on the Zionist entity, the hypersonic missile was meant for the Ben-Gurion Airport, a busy hub for international travelers. Because of the timing of the trajectories it was reported that a significant number of the incoming planes had to be diverted and re-routed to Larnaca in Cyprus as a stopover and wait for the calm to set in.
Again this is a first-time development because the disruption usually lasted for no more than 30 minutes whilst this time around it paralyzed the airport and its aviation systems and meant to send a Houthi signal to the Israelis and their American allies especially, that this would be the status quo from now on unless the onslaught on Gaza is stopped and humanitarian aid allowed in the enclave.
Today, the incoming missiles on the different parts of Israel have been almost daily, at least for the last one week. This is seen as a signal that a new and forceful strategic approach is being adopted by the Houthis who are daring the Americans despite their daily military strikes on Yemen that Israel would continue to be a legitimate target.
The American navy through its USS Harry Truman destroyer in the Red Sea is striking Yemen with such force and vehemence whilst assuring the Israelis that they will do the job and end the Houthi presence.
But this is not having the military effect the Americans would like it to have for Yemen is a big country with its harsh setting and difficult geographical terrain that makes such strikes seem like ‘bee stings” rather than painful blows. On Tuesday, the US struck different locations in Yemen 17 times and before that the strikes were carried out with the same level of intensity.
But the Houthis are not being brought to their knees, a proving fact that has cost the preceding Biden administration an estimated $2 billion to attempt to rein in the Houthis but with no apparent success despite the level of destruction inside the country for Yemenis, across-the-board, and not just the Houthis, have proven to be a formidable force over the years.
It’s still too early to see for how long Trump will follow in the footsteps made by former US president Joe Biden. This is bearing in mind that the new man in the White House doesn’t like to spend US money and therefore will likely lose steam as the days pass bye and especially because the Houthis started to target the US destroyer and any other ships going to Israel with the group determined to continue to upset the international trading system unless their is a reprieve on Gaza.
The above-analysis is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website.
Lebanon doesn’t want to normalize with Israel, pure and simple. Despite increasing pressure from the US administration, the government in Beirut is against any normalization moves with Israel.
“No one in Lebanon wants normalization with Israel,” says Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. “It is rejected by all Lebanese people,” he added.
The comments of the newly-elected Lebanese Prime Minister, made Wednesday, to a delegation from the Lebanese Press Editors Association, are trending on the social media.
“International and Arab diplomatic pressure on Israel to halt its attacks has not been exhausted,” noting that “no one wants normalization with Israel in Lebanon, which is rejected by all Lebanese,” as carried by the naharnet website.
Salam said Lebanon would not establish ties with Israel even though the latter still controls five border posts in Lebanon and which have “have no military or security value, but Israel holds them to keep pressure on Lebanon.”
Local media reports have emerged about US pressure on Lebanon to reach “an agreement that is less than normalization and more than an armistice” with Israel according to Anadolu.
A ceasefire was reached by the two countries at the end of last November after a fully-fledged war that began in September following months of cross-border fire.
Israel has repeatedly violated the terms of the ceasefire since then with 1,250 violations, 100 deaths and 330 injuries as reported by the Lebanese authorities.
Israel was supposed to withdraw from Lebanon by 26 January, 2025, extended the deadline to 18 February and still refuses to comply maintaining a outposts at five border-points.
It’s a war game between an isolated leader and an accused leader, a leader fleeing corruption and the courts, and a leader selling homelands like real estate on the pavement of the White House. How can they make peace? With the blessing of pseudo-leaders, once described as Arab Muslims, they have forgotten that history disowns false heroism, no matter how long it lasts. Indeed, it’s a stain that history will never erase, for conspiracies have an expiration date.
The game is aggressive and contradictory, with diminished rights and usurped land, and it is being exaggerated to create new heroes, expose traitors, and burn paper heroes. Announcing radical change is more Trumpian than it is a way to achieve the goal. The goal is geopolitical whose stakes are greater than those in the ruins of Gaza, or for the people of the West Bank.
What we perceive now on the ground is the result as actually being implemented in the region of Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, and elsewhere. This is far removed from the American political legacy, which has come to present itself as an unfair mediator with its possibility of implementing peace by force!
A Zionist base
We are faced with an occupying state that wields American power, a Zionist base in the heart of America and entity. America studies the state of politics firsthand. It is the largest country to explore the concept of state with military, geographical, and geopolitical capabilities. Geopolitical power is the most important element of its strength, exploited on the basis of geographical expansion.
States are considered human communities that grow and expand, weaken and shrink. The plan, my dear friends, is a trial balloon the size of the Middle East, with its peoples remaining stagnant and helpless. But the question is: Where does its success lie?
Let’s address this point by point. Reality shocks us, while history never forgets the amount of public discussion about settlement and the forcible preparation of political conditions to weaken the position of the international community and Europe in the ongoing conflict to subjugate the Arab situation to the point of fragmentation, division, and subservience.
Yes, Netanyahu continues his war to preserve his government with Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir, to pump billions of dollars into the government budget, to evade prosecution, and to realize the agenda of the Likud and religious Zionism to control the levers of the occupying state in its extremist Jewish nationalist form. But to what extent can Netanyahu can he continue to be evasive?
Netanyahu is now using the concept of force through traditional methods of exterminating civilians and then displacing the largest possible number of Gazans. He is also seeking to change the map of the region, annexing lands in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Judaizing Al-Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem, reshaping security to suit Israeli interests, and impose normalization. The region is in turmoil and change whilst undergoing a process of formation and renewal. The Syrian model is a prime example.
Regional expansion
The imposition of further conditions of humiliation on the Arab environment, the multi-front military campaign, as is happening in Syria and southern Lebanon, to reshape and strengthen Israeli security and regional influence in the long term. These developments will impose new facts on the ground to prevent any future political solution, as Israel seeks to expand settlements, forcibly displace Palestinians, and annex the remaining land.
Recognizing the Jewishness of the state and following the provisions of the Nation-State Law stipulates that Jews have the right to settle in the Arab region wherever they wish, and that the Israeli state must provide protection and care for every Jew. Declaring the Jewish state from the sea to the river is a form of soft displacement by all means, both covert and overt. Israel’s ambitions span the entire Arab region, as the Nation-State Law does not define the borders of the Jewish state posing great dangers to the delusional states that normalize relations with Israel, whilst believing that Israel will be an ally against an imaginary, fabricated enemy.
We should not overlook the fact that some Zionist political and military leaders believe that Israel should not consider the “alternative homeland” concept of displacement as a strategic and ultimate goal because it poses a constant danger and threat to its existence based on its assumption of a neighboring state(s) hosting the displaced Palestinian people within its vicinity as an occupier of their land and homeland.
Additional questions that must be raised is: To what extent should the goal be security-related? How large is the required area for expansion? Is this a fundamental and permanent requirement for Israel’s security, as has been stated? How does the area of land, whether in Syria, southern Lebanon, or elsewhere, fit into a general Zionist plan to serve as Israel’s eastern flank? To what extent should the region be expansionist, to what extent should it be aligned with Zionist expansion into the Gulf states?
Another issue is: Will there be a push to conclude an agreement with Israel that is more important than Wadi Araba and be in Israel’s favor? What about the four-party negotiations or more, and to whom will the invitation be addressed? And what would be the price that would follow? Perhaps the Palestinian Authority itself? The contradiction in the statements is clear and deliberate, and Israel is the ruling authority there! The most important question remains: What leverage do the countries of the region possess and use to prevent its negative influence?
Greater Israel
What is of certain is that Israel is pursuing of what is beyond for the greater Zionist entity reach. While discussing the Jewishness of the state, we cannot overlook other aspects of Zionist lore, the most important of which is the construction of the pagan Third Temple on the ruins of the Dome of the Rock. Are we concerned about that?
Unfortunately, the entity of Israel as a whole is illegitimate, but the world offers nothing but rejection of our Arab and Islamic identity.
They continue with the Zionist entity’s plan for the Middle East under the guise of the Sharon-Eitan strategic regime, the “spit of the century,” and other labels, provided there is Arab and Islamic division, an increasing imbalance of power, and the absence of genuine Arab peoples calling for the freedom of their homelands…not to provide for their livelihood, whose voices will be silenced by the provision of aid and debt forgiveness, or such some.
The writer is a researcher specializing in Middle Eastern affairs and the above article was edited from Arabic that appeared in Alrai Alyoum website.
Saudi Arabia on Monday condemned Israel’s announcement of establishing an agency aimed at displacing Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.
In a statement, the Saudi Foreign Ministry also denounced “the approval of the separation of 13 illegal settler neighborhoods in the West Bank, paving the way for their legitimization as colonial settlements.”
Saudi Arabia reiterated its “unwavering rejection of Israel’s continuous violations of international law and international humanitarian law.”
The Kingdom further stressed that “lasting and just peace cannot be achieved without the Palestinian people obtaining their legitimate rights in accordance with international legitimacy resolutions, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.”
Israel’s Security Cabinet has approved the formation of a directorate to encourage what it called the “voluntary departure” of Palestinians from the war-ravaged Gaza Strip.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a statement late Saturday that the new directorate will work to “prepare for and enable safe and controlled passage of Gaza residents for their voluntary departure to third countries.”
Katz’s office said the new administration will be responsible for establishing movement routes, checking pedestrians at designated crossings in Gaza, and coordinating the provision of infrastructure that will enable passage by land, sea, and air to the destination countries.
Trump has repeatedly called to “take over” Gaza and resettle its population to develop it into a tourist destination. His plan was rejected by the Arab world and many other nations, who say it amounts to ethnic cleansing according to Anadolu.
The Israeli army launched a surprise aerial campaign on the Gaza Strip on March 18, killing at least 730 people and injuring nearly 1,200 others despite a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement that took hold in January.
Over 50,000 Palestinians have been killed, mostly women and children, and more than 113,000 injured in a brutal Israeli military onslaught on Gaza since October 2023.
The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants last November for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the enclave.
Dr Khairi Janbek
CrossFireArabia
