Can Joseph Aoun Get Lebanon Out of its Rut?

By Dr Khairi Janbek

We have grown accustomed to Lebanon being in the headlines as a result of blood and destruction, but no longer. Whether due to the weakening of Iran, determination of the international community and/or both, all this appears to be changing.

Lebanon has now officially elected a new president, ending a long period of political crisis that has long left the country without a head of state since the term of former president Michel Aoun expired in late October 2022. After protracted negotiations and intense political maneuvering, not to mention Arab and international pressure, general Aoun, with a tough military reputation who has lead the army since 2017, has become the latest leader of the country.

General Aoun takes office amidst a period of significant economic and social challenges for Lebanon, as the country is grappling with an acute and ongoing financial crisis, soaring rates of unemployment, and the collapse of its currency, in addition to the refugee crisis and deteriorating infrastructure that has left Lebanon hanging by a thread.

In fact to top it all, the powerful sectarian political groups which hindered the election of a president for the past 26 months and more will not likely disappear with the election of general Aoun despite the seemingly robust character of the new leader.

The new 14th Lebanese president in his first address to parliament, vowed to work with all political factions to implement reforms and tackle the pressing economic issues that has long log-jammed the country. His speech was one that had determination and a sense of purpose and appeal with a rallying-cry for all of the fractious political groups of Lebanon.

Having said that, and despite the election in the Lebanese Parliament, the country’s future still remains uncertain with challenges. The new president will need to navigate carefully the deeply entrenched political system which often leads to gridlock and an inability to implement meaningful change.

Additionally, the country’s economy remains in freefall, with millions of Lebanese struggling to afford basic goods and services. Therefore, it is clear the road ahead will be a challenging one to say the least. Logically for many, the focus has already turned to whether the new president can live up to the promise of healing the nation and lead it towards a more stable system.

From the Arab and international perspectives, the messages of support from both seem to be encouraging, but this support will need to be translated into monetary terms for re-building the country. It is said there is the promise of $10 billion earmarked for this effort but frozen on the condition that Lebanon elects a president based.

Now this hurdle has been overcome and passed. At the end of the day as well, General Aoun is seen as the consensus candidate for the Arab countries as well as the international community. In this sense, the release of the re-building funds may look optimistic but there is still the snag of the question of Hezbollah and Israel’s future belligerent intentions towards the country, issues that are still to be ironed out.

The new Lebanese administration needs guarantees from Hezbollah in as much as it needs guarantees from the new Lebanese administration, and the Arab and international community eagerly awaits the results of this dimension because, putting it bluntly, no one wishes to see their investments blown up in another war nor their money burnt in smoke.

All that one can say under the circumstances, is that General Aoun, and he is the fourth president to be chosen from the military establishment, can negotiate with Hezbollah to surrender their heavy weapons to the Lebanese Army while keeping their light weapons; at least for the time being, and stay away from the Litani River as demanded by Israel.

But this will need considerable political dexterity and acumen.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris

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Israel Culprit in Ceasefire Breaking With Lebanon

Israel’s ongoing violations of its ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, despite it coming into effect at dawn on Wednesday 27 November 2024, raise grave concerns.

Israel had violated the ceasefire agreement 18 times in southern Lebanon as of the evening of Thursday 28 November, including conducting an airstrike in the Bisariyeh area of Sidon and shelling border villages with artillery, resulting in the injury of two people in the town of Markaba.

The Israeli army escalated its attacks on Lebanese territory on Sunday 1 December, particularly the towns along the border, increasing the number of Israeli violations of the ceasefire to at least 62.

The Israeli shelling has affected several Lebanese towns, including Yaroun, Aitaroun, Aita al-Shaab, Taybeh, Khiyam, Halta, the Marjeyoun Plain, Kfar Shuba, and Shebaa. In addition, the Israeli army imposed a curfew in the area south of the Litani River from 5:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m., and established a security cordon stretching from Mansouri in Tre to al-Habariyeh in al-Arqoub.

The Israeli army opened fire on several Lebanese individuals during a funeral procession on Friday 29 November. The procession was for one of the victims in the town, despite the necessary permits from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the Lebanese Army Command being obtained prior to the event.

Additionally, the Israeli army launched artillery shelling and machine gun fire at the town of Aita al-Shaab, as well as the outskirts of the towns of Markaba, Talousa, and Tal Nahas. Israeli tanks also advanced into areas not previously reached during the fighting that occurred before the ceasefire agreement was signed.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health has reported that three people were injured in an Israeli raid targeting a boat in the southern town of Majdal Zoun, an incident coinciding with the launch of an Israeli shell that struck the town of Khiyam. This occurred after the Israeli army shelled the outskirts of the town of Shaqra at dawn, plus fired upon the neighbourhoods of Maroun al-Ras, Bint Jbeil, and the areas surrounding the towns of Bani Hayyan and Markaba from late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Israeli violations also led to the deaths of two individuals in a drone strike on the town of Rab al-Thalathin, one of the southern villages to which residents were prohibited from returning by the Israeli army. Another individual was injured in a separate strike on the town of al-Bissariyeh, located in the Sidon district, north of the Litani River.

Further, the Israeli army opened fire on members of the Lebanese security forces while they were inspecting the damage in Saraya Bint Jbeil, forcing them to return to the Rmeish police station. An Israeli Merkava tank also crushed several cars and surrounded multiple families in the town of Aitaroun.

The most recent attacks on southern border towns targeted the town of Khiyam, where the Israeli army demolished buildings and homes, dropping three shells on the town and its outskirts. Additionally, artillery was used to shell the outskirts of the towns of Yaroun, Maroun al-Ras, Aitaroun, and Rashaya al-Fakhar, while machine gun fire was also directed at the peripheries of these towns.

Israel’s ongoing violations of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon represent a serious breach of its legal obligations, including international norms and laws. This unlawful use of force undermines the sovereignty of the Lebanese state. The international community and mediators must fulfill their responsibilities by compelling Israel to abide by international law and ensure the protection of civilians and civilian structures at all times.

EuroMed Human Rights Monitor

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Can Lebanon’s Ceasefire Lead to a Gaza Let up?

The cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon is raising questions about whether a similar truce could bring an end to the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza.

Statements from around the world have given rise to cautious hope, such as the US saying it aims to use the Lebanon truce “as a catalyst for a potential Gaza cease-fire,” but prospects of something actually materializing remain uncertain.

Palestinian academic Sami Al-Arian believes Israel does not want a cease-fire in Gaza, at least “for the time being.”

“Knowing that (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu will be facing prison once the war ends in Gaza, it doesn’t seem like he’s interested in either getting the hostages out or ending this genocidal war,” he told Anadolu.

Israel, he said, has been trying to “annihilate the (Palestinian) resistance” but failed to do so, or “free their captives with military means.”

“They have been trying for 14 months and they have failed miserably,” he said, adding that going for a cease-fire in such conditions would not fit in with Israel’s goals.

Israeli expert Ori Goldberg also finds chances of a truce in Gaza difficult, pointing to Netanyahu’s own statement rejecting that specific possibility.

He said the Israeli premier, now a man wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity, is unlikely to agree to cease-fire terms that risk his political standing.

“Various countries have already stated a renewed commitment to a hostage deal, but a cease-fire in Gaza will have to include a detailed schedule for Israeli withdrawal,” Goldberg said.

“I have trouble seeing Netanyahu agreeing to that in Gaza … If he agrees to it in Gaza, he will seem weaker.”

Another factor, he added, is how much “the Israeli public supports the presence of the Israeli military in Gaza, much more than it does in Lebanon.”

Why did Israel agree to Lebanon cease-fire?

Experts say Israel’s main reason for agreeing to the Lebanon truce was because it failed to achieve its military goals against Hezbollah.

“They wanted to push Hezbollah to the north of the Litani River but that failed. They wanted to disarm Hezbollah, and that failed,” said Al-Arian, adding that Israel opted for a cessation of hostilities because its forces were suffering.

“They wanted to impinge on Lebanese sovereignty and be able to fly over the airspace of Lebanon and control the border. That failed.”

Other goals of returning illegal Israeli settlers to Lebanese lands or creating a buffer zone also failed, he added.

Al-Arian emphasized that the current agreement is “not a cease-fire” but a truce for 60 days, reiterating that Israel’s only reason for agreeing was that “they were not able to bring Hezbollah to its knees and surrender.”

Ali Rizk, a Lebanese security analyst, presented a slightly different view, saying that both Israel and Hezbollah needed the truce.

“Hezbollah needed a cease-fire because it had suffered some heavy blows,” he told Anadolu.

Hezbollah’s supporters, particularly among the Shia community, were targeted by Israel, with many of them being displaced, and there was “immense human suffering with the onset of the winter season,” he added.

For Israel, Rizk believes they “initially had the momentum in their favor, especially after the assassination of Hezbollah’s former leader Syed Hassan Nasrallah, but gradually that momentum appeared to fade away.”

“They encountered some heavy resistance in the south. A lot of their soldiers lost their lives in the south. Hezbollah missile and rocket attacks continued,” he said.

In his own statement, while Netanyahu “didn’t say it, but he was implying that the Israeli military was suffering from some kind of a fatigue,” Rizk pointed out.

The US was another factor, he said, as it never wanted – since October 2023 – the “situation to erupt, to explode in Lebanon.”

“They (US) welcomed any steps and they took the opportunity when they found that these circumstances were appropriate and they sent Amos Hochstein,” said Rizk, referring to Biden’s special envoy.

“There were several factors – Hezbollah’s interests, Israeli interests and US interests – and I think they all converge in the same direction.”

Israeli analyst Goldberg also believes Netanyahu agreed to a truce because his forces were not accomplishing their goals in Lebanon.

“He wants to keep the Israeli military in Gaza. There’s no victory there, so he wanted something that would be a feather in his cap … He agreed to it in Lebanon because these are two sovereign states,” he said.

Will Lebanon cease-fire hold and what comes next?

On the durability of the Lebanon truce, Rizk struck an optimistic tone.

“If you look at what happened in 2006, Resolution 1701, that ended that conflict and it spoke about a cessation of hostilities,” he said, adding that the situation remained calm from 2006 till 2023.

“It’s quite possible that … we could have a long-term calm again … because it’s clear that neither the Israelis nor the Americans have an interest in the situation exploding.”

With Trump coming to power soon, having made clear his aversion to any war or military adventures, it would be fair to say “there is a good chance that this agreement is going to hold,” he added.

Goldberg, however, was more cautious in his outlook.

“I think the cease-fire will hold, even though there are provisions … that suggest that Israel can open fire and use violence whenever it likes. We will see how this happens,” he said.

“I think Netanyahu has an interest in the cease-fire holding because that gives him carte blanche in Gaza.”

Rizk, meanwhile, also believes that a formula could be reached to end the Gaza genocide and go ahead with a hostage deal.

“In July, according to reports, (US President-elect Donald) Trump told Netanyahu that he wants the situation done, and he wants the war to come to an end,” he said.

“If you look at Trump’s appointments and his mandate, it seems that he doesn’t want anything to do with a new conflict in the Middle East. He’s even given indications that he wants to deal with Iran, so that leads me to conclude that his foreign policy priorities are going to be elsewhere, which requires calm in this part of the world.”

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The A, B, C to a Ceasefire

A cease-fire agreement between Lebanon and Israel went into force early Wednesday to end over 14 months of fighting between the Israeli army and Hezbollah group.

In a 13-item document obtained from a government meeting on Wednesday, the Lebanese Cabinet reaffirmed its commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in its entirety.

Resolution 1701, adopted on Aug. 11, 2006, calls for a complete halt to hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel and the establishment of a weapons-free zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River in southern Lebanon, with exceptions for the Lebanese army and the UN peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL).

The cease-fire deal took effect hours after US President Joe Biden said a proposal to end the conflict had been reached, amid hopes it would stop Israeli airstrikes on Lebanese towns and cities and end the year-long cross-border fighting.

Over 3,800 people have been killed in Israeli attacks in Lebanon and over 1 million displaced since last October, according to Lebanese health authorities.

The document seen by Anadolu includes 13 items as follows:

1- Israel and Lebanon will implement a cessation of hostilities beginning at 04:00 hours (IST/EET) on November 27, 2024, in accordance with the commitments detailed below.

2- From 04:00 hours (IST/EET) on November 27, 2024, forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in its territory from carrying out any operations against Israel. In return, Israel will not conduct any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, or other state targets, by land, air, or sea.

3- Israel and Lebanon recognize the importance of UNSCR 1701 in achieving lasting peace and security and commit to taking steps towards its full implementation without violations.

4- These commitments do not preclude either Israel or Lebanon from exercising their inherent right to self-defense, consistent with international law.

5- Without prejudice to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and its responsibilities, or to commitments in UNSCR 1701 and its predecessor resolutions, Lebanon’s official military and security forces, infrastructure, and weaponry will be the only armed groups, arms, and related materiel deployed in the southern Litani area, as shown in the attached LAF Deployment Plan (hereinafter “the Southern Litani Area”).

6- Consistent with UNSCR 1701 and its predecessor resolutions, and to prevent the reestablishment and rearmament of non-state armed groups in Lebanon, any sales or supply of arms and related materiel into Lebanon will be regulated and controlled by the Government of Lebanon. Additionally, all production of arms and related materiel within Lebanon will be regulated and controlled by the Government of Lebanon.

7- Upon the commencement of the cessation of hostilities (as per paragraph 1), the Government of Lebanon will provide all necessary authorities, including freedom of movement, to Lebanon’s official military and security forces. It will instruct them, consistent with UNSCR 1701 and its predecessor resolutions, to:

a. Monitor and enforce against any unauthorized entry of arms and related materiel into and throughout Lebanon, including through all border crossings, and against the unauthorized production of arms and materiel within Lebanon.

b. Dismantle all unauthorized facilities involved in the production of arms and related materiel in the Southern Litani Area and prevent the establishment of such facilities in the future.

c. Confiscate all unauthorized arms and dismantle unauthorized infrastructure and military positions in the Southern Litani Area.

8- The United States and France intend to work within the Military Technical Committee for Lebanon (MTC4L) to enable and achieve the deployment of 10,000 LAF soldiers to southern Lebanon as soon as possible. They also intend to work with the international community to support the LAF’s capabilities.

9- Upon the cessation of hostilities, and in coordination with UNIFIL, Israel and Lebanon will reformulate and enhance the tripartite mechanism (hereinafter “the Mechanism”), which will be hosted by UNIFIL, chaired by the United States, and include France. The Mechanism will:

a. Monitor, verify, and assist in ensuring enforcement of these commitments.

b. Strengthen the LAF’s capacity to inspect and dismantle unauthorized sites, confiscate weapons, and prevent the presence of unauthorized armed groups.

10- Israel and Lebanon will report any alleged violations to the Mechanism and UNIFIL, without prejudice to their rights to communicate directly with the UN Security Council.

11- Upon cessation of hostilities, Lebanon will deploy its official military and security forces to all borders and regulate all land, air, and sea crossings.

12- Israel will withdraw its forces south of the Blue Line in a phased manner while the LAF deploys in the Southern Litani Area, as detailed in the attached Deployment Plan. This process will be completed within 60 days.

13- Israel and Lebanon request that the United States, in partnership with the United Nations, facilitate indirect negotiations to resolve remaining disputed points along the Blue Line, consistent with UNSCR 1701.

These commitments aim to enable civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to return safely to their homes and lands. The United States and France further intend to lead international efforts to support capacity-building and economic development throughout Lebanon to promote stability and prosperity in the region.”

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Israeli Army Fails in Ground Campaign in Lebanon

On 1 October, Israel announced the start of its ground military operation into Lebanon, which included air strikes, artillery shelling, and assassinations, but the Israeli occupation army has not yet been able to position itself in any village or town its soldiers have entered due to the resistance from Hezbollah fighters.

High Death Toll

According to Hezbollah the toll of Israeli army losses since the start of what it called the “ground maneuver in southern Lebanon” reached more than 100 dead and 1,000 wounded officers and soldiers, in addition to the destruction of 43 Merkava tanks, 8 military bulldozers, 2 Hummer vehicles, 2 armored vehicles, and 2 personnel carriers, and the downing of 4 Hermes 450 drones, and 2 Hermes 900 drones.

Despite talk of an imminent truce, Israel is still continuing its military escalation and announced the start of a second phase of the “ground incursion” targeting Lebanese villages outside the scope of its first operation in the south of the country.

Military experts told Al Jazeera Israel was surprised by the intensity of the resistance it faced during the ground incursion, despite its success in assassinating a large number of military leaders at the first and second levels.

This partial success prompted it to modify its strategy and shift to a new tactic based on entering areas, booby-trapping buildings, then detonating them, and quickly withdrawing to avoid further human losses, especially after the resistance succeeded in setting up ambushes.

Why has the Israeli army not been able to occupy any Lebanese village despite the military buildup on the northern border for more than a month?

Unable to occupy a single village

Military expert Brigadier-General Hassan Jouni confirmed to Al Jazeera the Israeli military buildup. Despite its five divisions with between 50,000 and 60,000 soldiers according to the Hebrew media, the Israeli army was unable to occupy a single village. He explained there is a fundamental difference in military science between the concepts of raid and occupation.

According to Jouni, a raid is defined as an advance towards a specific target with the aim of detonating or booby-trapping it or carrying out a security or military mission, such as arresting or liquidating someone, followed by a rapid withdrawal. Occupation means controlling a specific target and positioning oneself there, while establishing defensive centres to protect it.

Regarding the events in the south, he considered that what happened was advanced raids targeting specific villages with the aim of destroying them and withdrawing without the intention of remaining.

Jouni pointed out the Israeli decision not to station themselves in those locations came as a result of the fierce resistance their forces faced there, as they realized that any attempt to remain would make them vulnerable to continuous attacks by the resistance, which intensified its targeting of their movements towards the border villages and towns with artillery and missiles.

Does this situation reflect the strength of the Lebanese resistance and/or is it a military strategy followed by the occupation army?

According to Jouni the concentrated ground operation aimed to penetrate deep into Lebanese territory to reach the Litani River, especially after the harsh strikes against the Hezbollah leadership. However, Israel, after believing the resistance had been exhausted, was surprised by its intensity and steadfastness, which prompted it to modify its strategies. Therefore, the actual penetration was less than expected and was limited to a depth of no more than three kilometers.

What is the military significance of the strategy of the occupation army entering border villages and booby-trapping them without completely occupying them?

Blowing up cities

Military expert Brigadier-General Ali Abi Raad told Al Jazeera Net the Israelis seek to achieve two basic goals by blowing up cities. They are:

First, to facilitate the movement of their forces during military operations. In areas that contain buildings, progress becomes more difficult due to the risk of the presence of resistance fighters inside them, which forces them to destroy these buildings to open the way for their movements.

Second, to make these areas uninhabitable, especially those that are considered an “environment for resistance”, such as southern Lebanon. By destroying them, the Israelis isolate the environment that supports the resistance, and punish the residents who may be part of it. This strategy is known as “punitive deterrence”.

Abi Raad confirms that this strategy is not new, but part of the Israeli occupation’s approach in all areas it controls, whether in Gaza, West Bank and/or Lebanon. This approach has been witnessed in several wars, including the 2006 war on Lebanon.

Burned areas?

Is the Israeli occupation seeking to impose a new reality by turning the border areas into burned areas instead of being demilitarized?

Military expert Abi Raad points out the Israelis are seeking to impose a fait accompli by using internationally banned weapons, such as phosphorous and vacuum bombs, and stated that MK84 bombs were used in the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, and are currently being used in the bombing of the southern suburbs and a number of Lebanese border villages.

He explained that the effects of these shells are clear, as buildings fall completely to the ground and turn into ash, and that the resulting craters reach a width of 3 meters and a length of 7 to 8 meters, or more in some cases, reflecting the extent of the great destruction.

In his opinion, this problem represents a major threat, as the goal of the destruction is to eliminate life in those areas in the long term. He explained that if the war stops now, the reconstruction process is expected to take at least two years, wondering what the situation will be like if the destruction continues and the war worsens?

Do these tactics form part of a strategy aimed at pushing Hezbollah away from the border areas?

Brigadier-General Abi Raad says Hezbollah is part of the population of the south who are closely connected to their land and this war is “defending their lands”, as the border strip is close to homes that were built at huge costs, making it difficult for people to leave them easily, and they will return to them no matter what. Therefore, the idea of ​​​​removing the party from the south or the area south of the Litani is “unrealistic”.

On the political level, he believes an agreement may be reached on stripping  Hezbollah of its weapons in those areas, but the issue is not limited to a range of only 10 or 20 kilometers.

He explained the issue goes beyond the type of weapons the party possesses and the areas in which it is present. When it possesses missiles with a range of up to 100 or even 250 kilometers, then removing it to the north of the Litani will have little effect.

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