Can Israel Holds on to Ayta Al Shaab?

CROSSFIREARABIA – Finally, and after nearly three weeks of trying Israeli tanks, Monday, managed to enter Ayta Al Shaab, the little town, one kilometer away across the border into southern Lebanon.

Ever since 1 October, 2024, Israeli ground troops have been trying to enter from the south and south-east of the country but to no avail.

Now and with Ayta Al Shaab, the Israeli army are appearing to make the final push beyond the Lebanese-Israeli border; before that, Jewish soldiers have been trying to cross into southern Lebanon but with not much success.

They were moving just a few hundreds kilometers into Lebanese territory and then retreating due to the stiff resistance of the Hezbollah fighters. This area of Lebanon is regarded as tough Hezbollah territory where holding on to the homeland is a source of pride.

However, the latest Israeli incursion is a first and may just be the beginning of a long-drawn out bitter battle. But Hezbollah officials led by the Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem are saying that the party is ready and waiting for the Israeli tanks which means that the fighters are prepared and want such eventuality.

These Israeli soldiers in tanks managed to enter this small town by the extensive bombing of the place from the air over the past few weeks leading to it mass destruction and the scurrying of its people further up north for safety. So, basically the town now lies empty of civilians.

But this doesn’t mean the fighters have gone. They lie in waiting. Indeed, already there is talk of fierce fighting and clashes between Hezbollah fighters and the invading Israeli forces.

Observers are saying that entering Ayta Al Shaab or any other place in southern Lebanon such as Maroun Al Ras, Wadi Rmiesh, Dabel, Bint Jbeil, Ramia and Al Quzah, is one thing, but can the Israeli army maintain its presence in these areas.

Its one thing to invade but it’s another to enforce control and continue to move forward to other villages and towns of southern Lebanon.

This is doubly doubtful because of the spread of the Hezbollah fighters who are proving a formidable force fighting the Israelis inside Lebanon despite their air superiority and launching rockets and missiles across the border into northern Israel and creating much havoc, destruction and fires.

Here national consciousness and resistance against enemy forces are at the ready.

The major challenge however, is the entry of the Israeli troops, who have up until now been kept at bay.

However, Ayta Al Shaab is a tough nut to break, having already proved itself in an earlier battle with Israel where the town stayed steadfast and fought for 33 days till Israeli soldiers were forced to depart from Lebanon.

That was in 2006 when Israel invaded the country in a major war that lasted for 34 days.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Reshuffling Cards: Trump and Netanyahu’s Nightmare

(Crossfirearabia.com) – Benjamin Netanyahu hadn’t finished patting himself on the back for destroying the Sanaa International Airport – after all Israeli warplanes hit the country twice in less than 24 hours – before US President Donald Trump dramatically announced he had just reached a deal with the Houthis to stop striking Yemen. Shock, surprise, horror!

Trump added the Houthis promised in turn they would halt targeting all ships, including US vassals and tankers entering the world-trade-crucial Bab El Mandeb Straits, the Red Sea and presumably the Arabian Sea, just off the tip of the country in the south.

Thus, in one full swoop and at a strike of a pen, the war between the US and the Houthis, started in earnest since 15 March had come to an end in a mesmerizing fashion. During this time, the Americans had made at least a total of 1300 air-raids on Yemen in a bid to end the Houthis who had been striking Israel with ballistic missiles on a regular basis since 7 October, 2023 when Israel started bombarding Gaza.

The country that was behind the deal was Oman who had indeed announced, Tuesday, that an agreement between the United States and the Houthis, the effective but not internationally recognized government in Yemen, was reached to stop the war.

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said in a statement on X that: “Following recent discussions and contacts conducted by the Sultanate of Oman with the United States and the relevant authorities in Sana’a, in the Republic of Yemen, with the aim of de-escalation, efforts have resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the two sides,” as carried by Anadolu.

Analysts since suggested that the deal was reached because the two sides had wanted to end the open-ended escalation that was proving very costly not least of all to the United States which hiked the US treasury bill to about $1 billion dollars since its campaign, mostly to support Israel, in less than one month of military action.

The Houthis on the other hand didn’t want to fight on two fronts, the Americans and the Israelis. For them ending one front was perfectly logical to focus on strikes against Israel in a bid to end the latter’s war on Gaza, and which Israel has promised to step up soon and added to the misery and genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.

In agreeing to stop attacking shipping in the area they were of the firm belief that Trump had not meant that no firing against Israel as part of the deal which meant they would continue to strike Jewish cities, airports areas and military installations, more than 2000 kilometers away, until Israel ends its war on Gaza.

It is still too early to read into how things will unfold, especially since Trump is coming to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf in mid-May, but everyone is seeing the deal as creating a wedge between the US-Israeli alliance on matters relating to US security in the region and especially on the Iran nuclear file, where incessant negotiations – now in their third and fourth rounds -are taking place for the first time between Washington and Tehran in Muscat and through an Omani team lead by their formidable Omani Foreign Minister Albusaidi as mediator.

These are developments that are clearly upsetting Netanyahu who is dead against any nuclear deal that may be reached between the White House and Tehran and wants to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities regardless of the dangerous consequences. But this is seen as a critical line between Trump and Netanyahu while the former is determined to initial a new nuclear deal which he would see as a great US success and for his diplomacy in checking Iran’s nuclear weapon.

International issues as they stand are still fluid for Trump is looking for certain objectives most of all includes his slogan of “Make America Great Again”, focusing on his domestic scene, and not getting involved in unnecessary war around the globe, hence his wish to end the Ukraine War, the war on Gaza and achieve a new nuclear deal with Iran; these are objectives, especially they last two, are not at all in line with the Netanyahu who is attacking Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and occasionally Yemen.

Thus the last deal between Trump and the Houthis, regardless of whether it would stick in the end, is surely likely to be a “splitting headache” for Netanyahu, from a man who was once seen as great friend to Israel.

But the Israeli Prime Minister must not forget that Trump is no pushover, he is a broker who likes to do things his own way.

This analysis is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website. 

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Analysts: US Fails on Houthis After Six Weeks of Bombing

After nearly six weeks of intensive US airstrikes on different areas and cities of Yemen the Houthi Ansar Allah continues to assert that its military operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets will not stop until the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip ends.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, Saturday, announced the targeting of the Israeli Nevatim Air Base in the Negev with a ballistic missile, as well as two other sites in the Tel Aviv and Ashkelon areas and the targeting of warships on the US aircraft carrier SS Harry Truman in the northern Red Sea are just part of the continuing ongoing military strikes.

However in response to these attacks the US aircraft launched two airstrikes last Friday night on the Ras Isa oil port in the coastal province of Al Hudaydah, which Washington considers a major source of fuel used to finance the Ansar Allah group’s activities.

According to Dr Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, the USA has failed miserably in its strikes against the Houthis because of its inability to move to the second phase. He said that as a result they are  discussing an alternative scenario for this military campaign against the Houthis.

Makki believes that US President Donald Trump has reached a dead end, and that the ceiling he set regarding the Houthis is proven unrealistic, pointing out the United States, despite its military strength, is failing in Yemen because it is fighting a group, not a state.

On the other hand, military and strategic expert Brigadier-General Elias Hanna, believes that both sides are losing, whilst the image of the United States is being damaged, given the scale of the US military campaign and Trump’s engagement with the Houthis, who previously declared that  “we [US] will withdraw from all the world’s wars.”

Reports estimate the cost of the airstrikes carried out by the US military on Houthi positions amounted to approximately $1 billion in the first three weeks of the military campaign alone.

The Associated Press reported the value of the seven downed American drones made by the Houthis exceed $200 million, and the continued loss of American drones makes it difficult for the US leadership to accurately determine the extent of the damage to the Houthis’ weapons stockpiles.

Brigadier-General Hanna said that Washington lacks a comprehensive strategy in its dealings with the Houthis, and that the political goal it announced—restoring deterrence and opening shipping lanes—has not been achieved.

He also pointed out the US military is targeting the centers of gravity within the Houthi military system to disrupt it, a strategy Israel has used with the Palestinian resistance but has failed to achieve.

Appeasing the Houthis

In light of Washington’s inability to achieve its goals against the Houthis, Brigadier-General Hanna believes the pressure being exerted on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip is part of an effort to appease the Houthis so that they will halt their operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets.

Trump’s upcoming visit to the region also requires a de-escalation. According to the military and strategic expert, the US president cannot arrive while the Houthis are launching missiles.

In the same context, the senior Al Jazeera’s Makki expects  that a Gaza ceasefire will soon be reached before Trump’s visit, allowing the Houthis to halt their operations as they have initially linked the cessation of their operations to an end to the war on Gaza and to the cessation of US strikes against them.

American officials have previously revealed to CNN that the US military has struck more than 700 Houthi targets and carried out 300 airstrikes since the campaign began in mid-March, “forcing them underground and creating confusion and chaos within their ranks.”

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