CrossFireArabia
Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman: “The Houthis, while wearing sandals, are forcing an entire country to rush to shelters in the middle of the night.”
His comments are trending on the social media with wry humor.
CrossFireArabia
In 2024, there were a host of startling developments occurring in the Middle East and the wider world that impacted Palestine, most of them unforeseen 12 months ago: the continuation of the unrelenting Israeli genocide in Gaza, the battlefield defeat of Hezbollah and the devastation in Lebanon, the overthrow of Bashar Assad in Syria, the isolation of Iran, the election of Donald Trump, and a series of seminal rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC).
All of these seismic events make the assignment of imagining what Palestine’s future will be in 2025 a precarious task. Yet, with caution thrown to the wind, we can make some educated guesses on six leading features.
Leading scenarios for Palestine’s future
Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency will certainly encourage Israel’s accelerating subjugation of the Palestinians. His major appointments on the Middle East – including his secretary of state, his ambassador to Israel, and his two regional envoys – are all diplomatic gifts to Israel’s far-right nationalist government. His political instincts are all about respecting the strong and disparaging the weak. The only restraint that Trump may impose on Israel would result from his quest for a substantive deal with Saudi Arabia, which is publicly demanding a credible path to Palestinian statehood.
A genuine Palestinian state is further away than ever. In 2025, more Palestinian land will be confiscated, more illegal Israeli settlements will be built, and settler violence, already at record levels, will only intensify. While Trump might restrict Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from formally annexing parts of the West Bank, de facto Israeli annexation will continue unabated. The ability of the Palestinian Authority to shape events in its favor will likely shrink even further. As for the comatose peace process, the Palestinians long ago arrived at a traffic intersection, and the red light never changed. It remains red today, its only color.
The genocidal war on Gaza will finally end with a formal ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, and some Palestinian detainees. However, the unimaginable toll of deaths and suffering among the Palestinian civilians in Gaza will continue, as starvation, infectious diseases, a decimated economy, and a devastated landscape afflict the population. Hamas won’t be completely defeated, but it has suffered a grievous blow in the short run. Israel will push hard to build settlements in the north and for clan warlords to run the rest of Gaza, which Trump might allow. Another great test will be the raising of the $40-60 billion needed for the reconstruction of Gaza; this will create tension between Trump and his Gulf states allies, who will resist paying the lion’s share of the consequences of a war they opposed.
Will the international community face the Palestine issue in 2025?
Respecting Palestine, the United Nations will face some of its most perilous challenges in 2025. The one-year deadline set by the General Assembly for Israel to completely end its occupation of Palestine arrives next September, with Israel and the US committed to defying the obligation. In addition, Israel – with Trump’s backing – is seeking to dismantle UNRWA, the UN agency that delivers education, health, and social services to Palestinian refugees in the Levant. The challenge for Europe and the Arab world will be whether they will defend the UN, its core commitment to successfully resolving the oldest item on its political agenda (Palestine), and the preservation of its largest agency.
Israel’s diplomatic isolation will continue, even as its relationship with its superpower patron will deepen. Its outlier status at the United Nations – particularly at the General Assembly and the Human Rights Council – will see even more lopsided votes against its 57-year-old occupation, its denial of Palestinian self-determination, and its abuse of international law. The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will make him politically radioactive, with heads of state and government that have signed the 1998 Rome Statute refusing to meet him. Pressure will grow within Europe to rethink various trade and cooperation agreements with Israel as a reaction to the war and its horrendous humanitarian consequences.
Role of international law more important for Palestine than ever
The role of international law in pronouncing on the question of Palestine will become even more momentous in 2025. After the signature rulings by the ICJ and the ICC in 2024, we are likely to see a growing movement to insist upon a rights-based approach to peacemaking in Palestine, replacing the discredited (but still very much alive) realpolitik approach of the Oslo process.
The momentum created by the recent genocide reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch will continue to echo through UN corridors and foreign ministries. But there are also headwinds: Republicans in the US Senate are determined to sanction the ICC for issuing the arrest warrant against Netanyahu, meaning that the viability of the court will require a stout defense by the 124 members of the Rome Statute, particularly from Europe.
As we learned from the past year, there will almost certainly be unexpected surprises in 2025. And while there will continue to be dark times for the Palestinians in the year ahead, the war in Gaza has also sparked a global movement of solidarity – particularly among the young – that will continue to inspire courageous thinking and bold acts. Its lasting impact should never be underestimated.
Michael Lynk he author is a professor emeritus of law at Western University, London, Ontario, Canada. He served as the 7th United Nations special rapporteur for human rights in the occupied Palestinian territory between 2016 and 2022. Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu’s editorial policy.
CrossFireArabia
Israeli forces set fire on Friday to Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza, which is the largest hospital in the area and serves over 400,000 citizens, according to local reports.
Witnesses confirmed that the Israeli military forcibly evacuated patients, the injured, medical staff, and journalists from the hospital. The hospital is the only operational medical facility in northern Gaza that provided critical medical services to the community before being set ablaze.
The fire destroyed key departments, including operating rooms, the laboratory, the emergency unit and the ambulance services according to the WAFA news agency.
Communication with those inside the hospital was completely cut off after Israeli forces surrounded the building.
Reports indicate that the army ordered the approximately 350 people inside, including 170 medical staff, to gather in the courtyard in preparation for a military raid. The fate of those individuals remains unknown.
CrossFireArabia
Civilian casualties and injuries continue to be reported across Gaza due to the ongoing hostilities, with most families unable to afford basic food as the humanitarian situation deteriorates, a UN spokesperson reported, Thursday. In Lebanon, the UN peacekeeping mission in the south of the country urged both Israel and Lebanon to prevent any actions that could threaten the fragile ceasefire.
The relentless fighting in the Gaza Strip, which began last October, continues to cause widespread destruction and drive displacement, according to a note issued by the UN Spokesperson’s Office.
“The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) stresses once again that civilians and civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, must be protected and spared from attacks,” the note stated.
The note also cited reports that Israeli authorities continue to deny and impede aid missions across the war-ravaged enclave.
“Out of 12 UN requests for coordinated humanitarian movements yesterday, six requests were denied outright, three were cancelled by the organizers due to security or logistical challenges, one was approved but faced impediments, and two others were facilitated and accomplished,” the note stated.
“One attempt to reach besieged parts of North Gaza governorate was denied yesterday and another one today,” it added.
Despite access restrictions and insecurity, aid organizations are working tirelessly to assist the most vulnerable as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens.
With most families unable to afford basic food, prices have skyrocketed. Reports indicate that a 25-kilogram bag of wheat flour is now priced between $160 and $190.
“Humanitarian partners working to address hunger in Gaza estimate that as of mid-December, 10,000 metric tonnes of wheat flour are needed to distribute one bag of flour to all families in Deir al Balah, Khan Younis and Rafah,” the note said.
“Without this, food insecurity in central and southern areas of the Strip will only worsen.”
Meanwhile, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) stressed that any actions threatening the fragile cessation of hostilities, agreed last month between Israel and Lebanon, must cease.
“Israel and Lebanon have recommitted to full implementation of Security Council resolution 1701,” UNIFIL in a statement, calling on both parties to use the newly established Mechanism as agreed to address outstanding issues.
UNIFIL also called for the timely withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in southern Lebanon as part of the full implementation of the resolution as a comprehensive path toward peace.
It also noted concern over destruction caused by the IDF in residential areas, agricultural land and road networks in southern Lebanon, adding that such actions violate resolution 1701.
“UNIFIL stands ready to play its role in supporting both countries meet their obligations and monitoring progress,” the Mission said.
“This includes ensuring the area south of the Litani River is free of any armed personnel, assets or weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL as well as respect for the Blue Line.”
It added that UN peacekeepers will continue their mandated tasks, including monitoring and reporting all violations of resolution 1701 to the Security Council.
CrossFireArabia
At least 18 Israelis were injured early Friday while rushing to shelters in Tel Aviv, following a missile launch from Yemen which the Israeli army claimed to have intercepted.
According to the army, the missile was intercepted before entering Israeli airspace, with alarm sirens sounding across central areas of the country, including the Tel Aviv metropolitan area.
Emergency services reported no direct injuries or material damage from the missile but confirmed that 18 individuals were hurt during the rush to shelters.
Following the missile launch, several flights from Europe to Ben Gurion International Airport were delayed with landing operations resuming approximately 30 minutes later.
On Thursday evening, the Houthis reported that Israeli airstrikes on Sanaa International Airport and Al-Hudaydah province killed six people and injured 40 others.
The latest strikes are part of a pattern of Israeli military action in Yemen this year.
On 20 July, Israeli airstrikes on Al Hudaydah Port are said to have killed dozens and caused significant material losses, estimated by Houthi officials at $20 million.
On 29 September, Israeli forces conducted widespread airstrikes on western Yemen, including Al Hudaydah and Ras Isa ports.
Most recently, on 19 December, Israel targeted power stations in Sanaa, Al Hudaydah, Salif, and Ras Isa, resulting in nine deaths, three injuries, and severe infrastructure damage. The strikes left hundreds of thousands without electricity.
The Houthis have targeted Israel, as well as Israeli-linked shipping and naval vessels in the Red Sea, in solidarity with the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has killed more than 45,300 people since the 7 October, 2023 Hamas attacks.
The US and UK have also been bombing Houthi targets in Yemen according to Anadolu.
