Gaza’s Military Operations Disprove Netanyahu Claims

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims he is close to achieving victory against Hamas and the resistance in the Gaza Strip. But this is a falsehood according to CNN, in partnership with the Critical Threats Project (CTP) of the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War. They conducted a full analyses of the military situation in Gaza and say Netanyahu’s claim is baseless.

In front of Congress and amidst warm applause on 24 July, Netanyahu said “victory [over Hamas] is on the horizon,” but analyses of the military operations carried out by the resistance since the start of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” on 7 October, 2023 tell a different story and cast heavy doubts on these claims.

The analysis, based on military data from the resistance and the Israeli army, field footage, and interviews with experts and eyewitnesses, found about half of the military battalions affiliated with Hamas, in the northern and central Gaza Strip, have rebuilt their combat capabilities, despite the ongoing Israeli war of extermination Gaza with its declared aim to eleminate Hamas and the Palestinian resistance.

The research shows Hamas succeeded in using contradictory resources on the ground effectively, as several of its units have returned to key areas, where the “army” claimed to have dismantled the resistance and ended its presence after fierce battles and intensive bombardment.

Brian Carter, director of the “Middle East File” at “CTP” and the person who led the joint research, confirmed the inaccuracy of the occupation’s claims, saying: “The Israelis say that they cleansed a place, but they did not do so completely, and they did not defeat these fighters at all.”

From Under The Rubble

The Al-Qassam Brigades, The military wing of Hamas, includes 24 battalions spread throughout the Gaza Strip. The analyses in which CNN participated focused on rebuilding 16 battalions in the northern and central parts of the Strip, where the longest battles fought against the Israeli army.

As to southern Gaza, the analyses excluded the battalions there, due to “incomplete data on the status of the remaining eight battalions,” noting accurate data and scenes broadcast by the resistance confirm its continued fighting and carrying out qualitative operations against Israeli forces.

Of the 16 battalions, seven in the northern part of the devastated Strip have been able to rebuild some of their military capabilities, at least once, during the past six months.

The evidence showed the return of the resistance’s military activity in major flashpoints. In the Jabalia camp in the north, Israel acknowledged that last May, it once again faced fierce resistance from three Hamas battalions, despite the fact that the area was destroyed by Israeli bombardment that lasted for about three months in the early days of the war last fall.

In the Zeitoun neighborhood in Gaza City, Israel carried out four incursions, according to analyses.

Field sources in northern Gaza told CNN Hamas members were overseeing the destroyed markets, and reusing burned buildings as sites for the resistance. One Palestinian confirmed to the network Hamas’s presence in the area was “stronger than you can imagine.”

On January 7, four months after the war broke out, the Israeli army announced it had “dismantled the Hamas command structure in northern Gaza.” Only days later, there were reports of attacks on Israeli patrols in the eastern parts of Gaza City.

In the weeks that followed, videos showed Hamas fighters emerging from the rubble, likely through the Strip’s sprawling tunnel network.

Commenting on this, Brian Carter of CTP said Hamas rebounded less than a week after the Israeli army withdrew from the northern Gaza Strip in January. This spread throughout the Strip and continued, he added.

“This [return to the north] was the decisive operation that Hamas’s brigades took,” Carter added.

“Israel in Gaza is like a marathon runner… but it doesn’t know where it’s going”

A senior Israeli officer, told CNN on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak. He suggested Israel’s pursuit of Hamas everywhere in Gaza would take a very long time. “We will enter every place where Hamas raises its head,” the officer said. “Can this war go on forever? No. Our society is not prepared for this. The international community is not prepared for this either.”

In response, the officer likened Israeli military activity in the Gaza Strip to “a marathon runner who doesn’t know where the stadium is. He runs and doesn’t know if he’s going in the right direction.”

US Army Colonel Peter Mansoor, who helped oversee the deployment of 30,000 additional US troops to Iraq in 2007 in the strategy known as “The Surge” (which aims to “counter-insurgency”), said that “the fact that the Israelis are still in Gaza, trying to root out elements of Hamas’s brigades, shows that Netanyahu is wrong… Hamas’s ability to reconstitute its fighting forces has not diminished.”

“Qassam Brigades Draws Israeli Forces Into Fight”

In addition, a retired senior Israeli officer said that Hamas “began the recruitment process three or four months ago, and thousands have joined.” It is worth noting that the spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, Abu Obeida, revealed last month that the Brigades “managed to recruit thousands of new fighters during the war,” reassuring that their human capabilities were fine.

Meanwhile, the Qassam Brigades continue to drag Israeli forces into repeated cycles of fighting, as analyses have found.

The analyses indicated that the rebuilding process took place in two different ways, as some units of the Qassam Brigades reorganized their ranks, merging cells that had retreated in order to form effective combat battalions, while other units reactivated, recruited new fighters, and manufactured weapons.

This article is reprinted from Jo24 taken from Al Mayadeen Satellite Television

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Hormuz: Mines, Strategy or Business?

By Ismail Al Sharif

The US thought that assassinating senior Iranian leaders would bring down the regime, but this did not happen.

Iran’s inability to match American military and technological superiority led it to adopt a number of strategies, most notably what is known in the military literature as the Mosaic Defense Doctrine. This doctrine is based on dismantling its military central command into small, independent units, each operating autonomously and making its own decisions without consulting the higher command.

From Day 1 of the war, Iran adopted this approach. However, the lack of coordination and the disintegration of the military hierarchy led to chaos and confusion which affected the management of its operations. The situation became contradictory; the politicians were declaring one thing and military commanders acting in a completely different manner and direction.

This was reflected on the ground through extremely dangerous behavior. Military units, using small boats, indiscriminately laid naval mines to deter enemy ships. However, the lack of coordination here backfired resulting in the Iranian navy officers losing their ability to pinpoint the coordinates of the mines they planted in the Hormuz Strait with no accurate maps or reliable records. Some of these mines may have been completely displaced by the currents of the sea. This was further complicated by the fact that these mines were not primitive but far from it; they were sophisticated and able to detect sound and pressure, and thus able to track the passage of large ships and submarines, and detonate automatically upon approach.

However, mine removal is not easy task, as history shows. Even today, news reports continue to surface of mines in various parts of the Kingdom, half a century after the last war. Indeed, mines from World War II are still being discovered on land and at sea.

Even with Britain’s pledge to remove mines after the war, and despite possessing the latest specialized technologies in this field, the task remains arduous, protracted, and uncertain. The specter of a sudden explosion looms, reminding us that the danger of mines is not easily eliminated.

But the decisive factor in weakening navigation in the Hormuz Strait is not primarily military, but rather material. Commercial ships are massive investments, with some vessels valued at around $150 million and their cargoes potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, a single mine explosion can cause catastrophic losses to both the ship and its cargo. Consequently, no ship sails without insurance; ports, banks, and shipping companies refuse to deal with uninsured vessels, and without insurance, global shipping grinds to a halt.

Herein lies the real surprise: the fate of the Strait is no longer dependent on Iran’s pronouncements regarding its opening or closure, but has effectively fallen into the hands of insurance companies. With the escalating risks, insurance costs have skyrocketed; “war risk” premiums have jumped from approximately 0.25% of the ship’s value to nearly 1% or more, exceeding a massive $1 million per voyage. And it doesnt stop there; seven major insurance companies announced their complete withdrawal, issuing notices of coverage cancellation just within just 72 hours.

And here comes the decisive turning point: Once the insurance coverage is lost, maritime traffic ground to a halt. During this 39-war, ships have effectively ceased sailing with the number of vessels transiting the Strait plummeting by more than 80%. Around 150 oil tankers remain anchored offshore, and major shipping companies suspended their operations, as if this vital artery of global trade had been frozen by a financial, rather than a military decision.

The US government attempted to provide alternative insurance coverage, but this effort failed and US President Trump’s pronouncements regarding mine removal were inconsistent with the reality.

The issue of reopening the Strait has once again become a prominent topic, but the deeper truth is that its fate is no longer determined by political statements or military actions, but rather by the decisions of insurance experts. Even if the war were to end immediately, ships would not resume sailing right away. Insurance companies need time to reassess the level of risk, and they base their decisions not on political logic, but on cold, hard numbers and rigorous data.

This article was originally published in Arabic in Addustour daily newspaper and republished in English in crossfirearabia.com.

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Analysis: Middle East in Iranian Eyes

CROSSFIREARABIA – During the Israeli Genocide on Gaza Benjamin Netanyahu used to stand up and say with a smirk: ‘We are changing the face of the Middle East’.

Upbeat about murdering the women and children of Gaza from the late 2023 onwards, he was talking about the further normalization of the Arab world as established by the Abraham Accords, establish an economic order under Israel’s hegemony and end Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis while clipping the wings of Iran.

Of course, Netanyahu’s face soon changed, albeit two-and-a-half years later, when Iran and Hezbollah were forced into a war generated by Israel and the USA on 29 February, 2026. While Iran got a battering, in the next 39 days, US ships and military bases in the Gulf and Jordan received such a hammering that soon forced US President Donald Trump to plead for a ceasefire.

In this war, Israel received a great shock, being attacked literally on an hourly and daily basis with its buildings, military basis and infrastructure taking directs hits while its millions of people living in underground shelters around-the-clock. 

To use a metaphor Tel Aviv’s nose was being rubbed in the sand in a way that has never been imagined by Netanyahu nor his ilk of extremist right wing fascist politicians who started calling for the expulsion of Gaza Palestinians from their homeland ever since the Israeli genocide on them since 7 October, 2023. 

Today’s Netanyahu’s vision of a new Middle East has been drastically changed, thrown in his face in fact! Iran’s political stances and its missiles have changed things around. The US and Israel were not able to change the current Iranian government in Iran despite killing the country’s spiritual leader Ali Khameini, have not ended the country’s nuclear program nor ended its ballistic missiles. 

So what is Netanyahu talking about? Yes, today there is clearly a new Middle East emerging but it is not according to Netanyahu’s eyes nor his wishful thinking. If anybody should be ‘celebrating’ it is clearly Iran, it’s government, revolutionary guard, its Generals, officers and soldiers who are very probably changing the face of the Middle East and may even be setting the map of how the region should look like in form from now on. 

From day one of the war, Trump started running scared despite his outlandish mutterings! He came to realize quickly that Netanyahu and the Mossad pushed him against Iran, convincing him it would be an easy fight and the government there would fall like a pack of cards. Trump since, started kicking himself as he finally fell to Netanyahu’s squinted prism to go after that country. Netanyahu kept pushing for this wild step since the 1990s through previous US presidents from Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

But they did not listen to him however, Trump fell into the trap and maybe this is why he is now privately kicking himself because he basically sent the globe into an economic tailspin and soaring exorbitant oil prices, a potentially deep recession and financial chaos.

In this war Netanyahu may have shot himself in the foot. His alliance with the USA  juxtaposed by Hezbollah whose fighters laid dormant since November 2024 when it stopped firing at Tel Aviv was a big surprise to the latter. Israel had previously thought that Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire out of weakness and thus their entry into military action was unexpected. Hezbollah kept the military pressure on for six more days after Washington signed off with Iran and beating the Israeli army into submission.

On day 46 Trump intervened calling on the Israeli army to stop fighting Hezbollah. He had ulterior motive, he wanted to extract a normalization agreement between the Lebanese government and Israel; their ambassadors had just started meeting in Washington at the invitation of the US State Department in an upbeat atmosphere and inline for a final agreement to establish an accord between Tel Aviv and Beirut alongside the ones signed between Israel and four Arab states, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco starting September 2020. 

Thus a normalization agreement would be a feather in Trump’s cap, a sort of prestige move for the US president. But his pressure may have been seen as a life-saving formula. Trump was saving Israel from Netanyahu’s insistence that his army to keep fighting in southern Lebanon. Its fight has already cost Israel at least 13 soldiers who were killed, more than 500 injured and more than 100 topnotch Merkava tanks destroyed. Israeli towns and cities were being hammered from the north.

Israel was being beaten from the north. Its towns, cities and military bases again were wide-open to incoming rockets from Lebanon and were not being deflected. It was a war that had to be stopped. This time Trump insisted. If a ceasefire with Iran was going to stick, then Netanyahu had to be forced to make his soldiers stop their fight in Lebanon. 

Thus for the time being Netanyahu’s hand lie in check. Yet in the long run his dream for a new Middle East with Israel playing a central part in it may have been halted. After all, no Gulf or even Arab states now would think of normalizing with Israel despite the fact that Lebanon is being forced into it, but even for then its early days.

Netanyahu can kiss goodbye his long-life attempt to sign a normalization accord with Saudi Arabia for instance, a kingdom which is seen as a “major puller” in the Arab and Muslim world. It has already said that normalization is off the table with Israel. The Gulf has been disappointed in this war because it showed that America were not able to protect them from Iranian missiles that targeted their infrastructure as well the US military bases strewn across the region.

Netanyahu has lost on the economic level as well. His country stands economically devastated, army in ruins as admitted to by the Israeli chief of staff Eyal Zamir, and the dream of opening an ‘economic Middle East’ is definitely dashed for the time being.

America, as Trump knows, is left to pick up the pieces of a tattered world caused by war any choas in a region that is vital to the global system.

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