Duwairi: Israel Moves Back to Stage 1 of Gaza War

Military expert Major-General Fayez Al-Duwairi said that developments in Gaza are returning to the first stage of the war. He confirmed what is happening on the ground in terms of targeting hospitals and safe areas points to the fact.

Back to Stage I

He said phase “C” of the Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip has ended and the return to the first stage is now taking place. He highlighted the occupation army has deployed four divisions including 16 brigades in Gaza.

In the first battle of Khan Yunis in the south, Al-Duwairi added, the 98th Division, 99th Division, 162nd Division, and 252nd Division were deployed there. Now, he added, the occupation has deployed the Sinai Division to the new axis in the south of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza.

Israeli Airstrikes Schools, Hospitals

He pointed out that the current Israeli airstrikes are focusing on hospitals, UNRWA centers, and safe areas, in addition to pressuring displace residents, especially in the eastern Khan Yunis area to move to Mawasi area.

Israel claims moving to the third phase of its war in Gaza requires keeping its forces only in the Netzarim axes – which separates the north of the Gaza Strip from its center and south – and the Philadelphi axes on the border with Egypt, and the buffer zone along the border with the Strip, and this phase is a form of rapid and focused operations in specific areas.

The strategic expert noted returning to the first phase of the war reflects the political and military thinking  in Israel, as the first continues to talk about dismantling and eliminating the Hamas, and freeing the Israeli detainees in Gaza, while the second also talks about the need to keep up the military pressure on the Palestinian resistance.

He referred to Israel Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi as  saying he is in favor of military pressure to force Hamas to make concessions leading to an agreement in accordance with Israeli requirements and not according to what is happening on the ground in Gaza.

Rome Initiative

The Israelis are seeking to pressure Hamas to accept the new Rome Initiative, which Al-Duwairi said may nclude many additions, the most important of which is keeping the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes and controlling the return of displaced Gazans to the northern regions.

Rome, is hosting a four-way meeting to discuss the latest Israeli proposal regarding a possible agreement that includes a ceasefire in Gaza and a prisoner exchange between Israel and the Palestinian resistance.

However, Al-Duwairi  explained – in his military analysis on Al-Jazeera – the Palestinian resistance, although weakened by the ongoing Israeli aggression on the Strip, has the flexibility to rebuild its human and material strength.

In contrast, the occupation army has not been able to recover from the state of exhaustion it is suffering from. Al-Duwairi pointed out this army numbers 635,000 soldiers, 40% of which is in the Gaza Strip, 30% in the West Bank, and about 30 to 35% on the northern front and 10% a strategic reserve as printed in the Jo24.net website.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Analysts: US Fails on Houthis After Six Weeks of Bombing

After nearly six weeks of intensive US airstrikes on different areas and cities of Yemen the Houthi Ansar Allah continues to assert that its military operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets will not stop until the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip ends.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, Saturday, announced the targeting of the Israeli Nevatim Air Base in the Negev with a ballistic missile, as well as two other sites in the Tel Aviv and Ashkelon areas and the targeting of warships on the US aircraft carrier SS Harry Truman in the northern Red Sea are just part of the continuing ongoing military strikes.

However in response to these attacks the US aircraft launched two airstrikes last Friday night on the Ras Isa oil port in the coastal province of Al Hudaydah, which Washington considers a major source of fuel used to finance the Ansar Allah group’s activities.

According to Dr Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, the USA has failed miserably in its strikes against the Houthis because of its inability to move to the second phase. He said that as a result they are  discussing an alternative scenario for this military campaign against the Houthis.

Makki believes that US President Donald Trump has reached a dead end, and that the ceiling he set regarding the Houthis is proven unrealistic, pointing out the United States, despite its military strength, is failing in Yemen because it is fighting a group, not a state.

On the other hand, military and strategic expert Brigadier-General Elias Hanna, believes that both sides are losing, whilst the image of the United States is being damaged, given the scale of the US military campaign and Trump’s engagement with the Houthis, who previously declared that  “we [US] will withdraw from all the world’s wars.”

Reports estimate the cost of the airstrikes carried out by the US military on Houthi positions amounted to approximately $1 billion in the first three weeks of the military campaign alone.

The Associated Press reported the value of the seven downed American drones made by the Houthis exceed $200 million, and the continued loss of American drones makes it difficult for the US leadership to accurately determine the extent of the damage to the Houthis’ weapons stockpiles.

Brigadier-General Hanna said that Washington lacks a comprehensive strategy in its dealings with the Houthis, and that the political goal it announced—restoring deterrence and opening shipping lanes—has not been achieved.

He also pointed out the US military is targeting the centers of gravity within the Houthi military system to disrupt it, a strategy Israel has used with the Palestinian resistance but has failed to achieve.

Appeasing the Houthis

In light of Washington’s inability to achieve its goals against the Houthis, Brigadier-General Hanna believes the pressure being exerted on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip is part of an effort to appease the Houthis so that they will halt their operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets.

Trump’s upcoming visit to the region also requires a de-escalation. According to the military and strategic expert, the US president cannot arrive while the Houthis are launching missiles.

In the same context, the senior Al Jazeera’s Makki expects  that a Gaza ceasefire will soon be reached before Trump’s visit, allowing the Houthis to halt their operations as they have initially linked the cessation of their operations to an end to the war on Gaza and to the cessation of US strikes against them.

American officials have previously revealed to CNN that the US military has struck more than 700 Houthi targets and carried out 300 airstrikes since the campaign began in mid-March, “forcing them underground and creating confusion and chaos within their ranks.”

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Avi Ashkenazi: Hamas is Pushing Israeli Army Into a Quagmire

An Israeli military analyst said Friday, Hamas is waging a “guerrilla war” against the Israeli army in Gaza, and that decisions made by the current government are pushing it toward a quagmire.

Avi Ashkenazi, a military analyst for the Maariv newspaper, explained Hamas is trying to maintain its military strength, and its fighters know this territory; it is their stronghold.

“They (Hamas fighters) are not waging a defensive battle, but rather an offensive one through guerrilla cells. They monitor the Israeli forces from afar, know where they operate, their routines are, and look for their weak spots” he added.

“The cells prefer to operate in the afternoon, during daylight, when the sun is shining. When they realize the right time, they emerge from several openings of a single tunnel and begin the attack with an anti-tank missile, followed by sniper fire or the dropping of grenades,” Ashkenazi continued.

“The problem does not lie in the tactical management of the campaign by the army, but rather lies solely at the political level.”

“The political class is waging a war for political survival, and its decisions are pushing the army into a quagmire, even though Gaza has not seen a single drop of rain in weeks.”

“Israel must reach an agreement to release the hostages (held by Palestinian factions in Gaza) as soon as possible, even if the price is high, which is the release of (Palestinian) prisoners, and even if it means retreating to the border fence of Gaza, even if it means providing guarantees that the war will not resume,” he added.

“Hamas is Hamas, and sooner or later it will violate one of the terms of the agreement, which will allow Israel to move to complete the war’s objectives and deprive it of the ability to govern and militarize,” he continued.

“The wild and impudent words directed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir during the cabinet meeting illustrate the impasse facing some members of the political leadership,” Ashkenazi pointed out.

“The inability of the political echelons to make decisions makes it difficult for the army to manage the campaign (the war of extermination) well, quickly, and sharply.

When this happens in this type of campaign, where there is a large army (Israel) on the one side and a guerrilla organization (Hamas) on the other, the large army becomes vulnerable,” Ashkanazi stressed.

On Tuesday, the Israeli security cabinet meeting witnessed severe tensions between Smotrich and both Zamir and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar. The Hebrew media reported that the dispute began when Smotrich sharply criticized the army’s refusal to assume responsibility for distributing aid, arguing the army lacked the authority to choose its own missions.

He told Zamir: “Those who cannot carry out their missions should go home.” Zamir responded by rejecting these statements, prompting several ministers to ask Smotrich to lower his tone.

Throughout the ongoing genocide perpetrated by Israel in Gaza since October 7, 2023, Tel Aviv has been attempting to impose total control over the Gaza Strip by dismembering it and displacing its population, in addition to its attempts to eliminate Hamas and recover the prisoners in Gaza.

However, Israel has been unable to fully achieve these goals over the months of war, exposing Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to criticism both from the extreme right, which wants to tighten the noose on the Strip, and from leftists, who aspire to recover the prisoners from Gaza, even if the price is a ceasefire.

Tel Aviv estimates that there are 59 Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip, 24 of whom are still alive. Meanwhile, more than 9,500 Palestinians are languishing in its prisons, suffering torture, starvation, and medical neglect, many of whom have died, according to Palestinian and Israeli human rights and media reports.

With full American support, Israel has been committing genocide in Gaza since October 7, 2023, leaving more than 168,000 Palestinians dead and wounded, most of them children and women, and more than 11,000 missing according to Anadolu.

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