Saleem Ayoub Quna, Author at CrossFireArarbia

The Day After in Syria is Simply Bleak!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
December 30, 2024

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

Syria has just turned a gloomy chapter of its long turbulent history that lasted for at least half-a-century. The question now is: Will this new era bring better or worse news for this beleaguered country and its people?

The new local stake holders on the ground and outside players are showing different and often conflicting signals of what lies ahead. A month ago, the totalitarian Assad dynasty regime collapsed, its
dictator fled the country, his strong men melted into the caves, his father’s imposing statues downed and his foreign supporters’ influence, Iran and Russia, evaporated. From this underdog dark side, the game
was over!

But it was not so on the other rising side of the game, where you have the local opposition of multiple groups and their new de facto foreign partners and friends, celebrating the defeat of the bygone oppressive regime.

All they see is a helpless, desperate and a lone prey for the cut! In real terms the country, so far, is being divided into different de facto regional enclaves or mini-states. Each is controlled by its own local
leaders. Members of each community share either the same faith, or speak the same language, or adhere to a host of old norms and traditions inherited from their ancestors.

Both leaders and their followers of each faction are finding themselves at a crucial turning point. Do they want to repeat what their previous leaders did when they, willy-nilly, allowed the central government under the Assad regime, run their daily life affaires, and then when it was too late, discovered that they were either deceived or coerced by the now defunct regime’s agents? Or are they saying no more of this stuff this time, and accordingly acting more independently to preserve their special identity and immune their rights?

The idea of partitioning Syria as we know it since its independence in 1946 is not new! It can be traced back to its pre-independence original format, conceived then by the French mandatory power in the early 1900s, when the Ottoman’s four centuries rule, of the whole of Arabia and North Africa, came to an end.

At that time, France, sanctioned by League of Nations, suggested to divide the country into five main enclaves or mini-states: An Alawite enclave on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean with Latakia as its capital, an Aleppo enclave in the north, a Jabal Druze enclave in the south, bordering Jordan, Alexandretta enclave which was taken by Turkey and renamed as the Hatay province, and finally the dominated Sunni region in the center with its capital Damascus.

Today, the US, with the consent of other good wishers, are openly pushing, by deeds and words, to create an additional enclave in the autonomous Kurdish oil-rich region in the north-eastern part of Syria.
On the Golan Heights, the new strong players are turning a blind eye to the serious Israeli military encroachments inside proper Syrian territories, previously recognized by the world community and UN resolutions. At the same time, the emerging clashes in the east and west of the country and other places in the center, between rivaling armed groups, leave little room for optimism.

The most important step Syrians need today is a constitution that can stand at the same distance from all components of the society. But surprisingly, the last statement attributed to the new top man in
Damascus saying such a constitution might take four to five years to come to life, can only send discouraging and negative signals to all the components of Syrian society and others!

A final question that must be asked: Is Syria nearing to lose its last chance to avoid falling back in the pre-independence fragmentation trap?

This opinion was especially written for Crossfire Arabia by Saleem Ayoub Quna who is a Jordanian author writing on local, regional and international affairs and has two books published. He has a BA in English Literature from Jordan University, a diploma from Paris and an MA from Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He also has working knowledge of French and German.

Opinion

‘Arab Spring’ Continues Withering

Saleem Ayoub Quna
December 14, 2024

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

After December 2010 when a desperate and angry Tunisian young man of the name of Mohammad Bouazizi, dramatically immolated himself, an unprecedented wave of mass protests against incumbent totalitarian regimes swept five Arab capitals: Tunisia, Cairo, Tripoli, Yemen and Damascus.

The simultaneous civic uprising in these countries was deceitfully baptized as the “Arab Spring”, which initially won the hearts of millions of Arabs. But it did not take long before the average Arab citizen started realizing that it was one thing to get rid of a dictator or topple a regime, and completely another thing to have a plan for the day after!

It was the same course of events in the five capitals except for Tunisia: Street demonstrations, clashes with police, havoc and death, under the watchful eyes of disguised outside interference and finally a forced humiliating departure, imprisonment or execution of the incumbent ruler and his entourage.

In Tunisia, the military sat on the fence! Consequently, the violence and loss of life was minimal there, while in the other four countries the toll was higher and kept rising until the end.

Tens of thousands of Syrians across the country took to the streets on Friday to celebrate “the victory of the blessed revolution,” following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. pic.twitter.com/715xjkbNk7
— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) December 14, 2024

The last leg of the fake “Arab Spring” was Syria, where the clashes between the forces of the regime and the opposition groups, mostly of Islamic orientation, dragged on and gradually turned into open urban warfare.

Syria’s distorted model of the “Arab Spring” took nearly 14 years, simply because the regime, at a certain crucial turning point in 2015, resorted to outside direct support, namely from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

Opposition groups in Syria and their sympathizers never forgot or forgave the brutal crackdown they were subjected to in the city of Hama back in 1982 by the Hafez Al-Assad’s regime.

Of course Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah’s response to help Assad’s regime in 2015, was not an act of charity. Each party had their own agenda and motivations; Iran sought to ascertain its regional clout, while continuing to arm Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria and Iraq; Russia wanted to strengthen its foothold in Syria in a move to counter balance American encroaching measures in northern-eastern Syria, the oil rich land, where the latter supported the local Kurdish population.

Hezbollah was paying back the debt for the Syrian regime that facilitated the transfer of Iranian military hardware.

Today, Syrians are celebrating the end of the 53rd year of the rule of the Assad dynasty, except, maybe by a handful of them. As the saying goes: Loss and defeat are born orphans; victory and success gets many adopters!

The Syrian groups who took over from the previous regime are multiple in number and diverse in outlook; like an art work of a mosaic, from a distance, it looks picturesque and colorful, but from within and in detail, it clearly lacks coherence and chemistry.

As things stand now in Syria and its surroundings, there is not much room for optimism, despite the big change! Many outside players are gossiping about the future of this beleaguered country in ways that reveal that what they are doing is more than gossiping. They are working on concrete ideas and plans for the day after in Syria while, during the coffee breaks, they watch those who are dancing and chanting in the squares and streets of Damascus!

Opinion

Trump Recycled!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
November 28, 2024

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

CROSSFIREARABIA – In his younger years (in the late 70s and early 80s of last century), Trump, the rising and flamboyant businessman, when asked by reporters about his presidential aspirations, repeatedly said that he did not want to become a president!

Time has just proved that he was lying even at that early stage! But it was a lie that took a nap that lasted nearly four decades! The nap finally came to an end in 2016. Trump was the first person who could not
believe, his own eyes and ears, that he won the race to become the 45th President of the US!

Prior to that surprising outcome, the vast majority of polls, indications and analyses were in favor of his rival, the veteran Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.

Another interesting coincidence in Trump’s path to the White House, then and now was the fact that his two rivals in the two races were women! This last race in November, however, was unexpectedly different in that he won by a large and significant margin, one which the Americans label as a “landslide victory”!

New book by psychologist about Trump. “He is the “episodic man” who sees life as a series of battles to be won. There is no connection between the moments, no reflection and no potential for growth when one is compulsively in the present.

https://t.co/GHZnMqXQuw
— Duty To Warn 🔉 (@duty2warn) March 15, 2020

Even during the shorter nap or forced absentia from real politics, when “sleepy” Joe Biden occupied the White House for four years, Trump was not never absent from the public eye and the thirsty and nagging American media. He frequently appeared in the media sitting in courtrooms, in different locations (States), frustrated yet polite, listening to more than 30 allegations, leveled against him by Attorney Generals, of breaking the rules of the land.

The question number one in the US and around the world today is this: Will Trump repeat himself, or should we expect a recycled Trump? Either way, someone around him will, definitely, remind him that the world has significantly changed since his interrupted presidency back in 2020!

This someone would also remind Trump that he was not the only one who must have learned his lesson. Others did that too, especially his country’s big so-called “adversaries” or rivals around the world, the likes of China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and others!

His country’s allies and friends, the likes of the European Union, the Ukraine, Japan, South Korea and Israel must have also done their homework, and were readying themselves for this expected day as Trump has re-merged from his forced absentia.

Whatever the case might be, Trump’s second term will be even more newsworthy and consequential! The issues at stake are huge and complicated, such as the illegal immigrants from South America, the Paris Agreement on climate change, the commercial war with China, NATO relations, the Ukraine-Russian war, the war in the Middle East and other problems.

If Trump and his new hand-picked team think they can handle all these issues in the span of four years, they must be either over optimistic or naïve. Remember when Trump back in the 2016 presidential race against Clinton, kept saying he will build a wall along the borders with Mexico to stop the flaw of immigrants and workers to the US and vowed that Mexico will pay the cost?

Has the new Trump’s team prepared an answer to that question? If I were part of that team, I would take a look at the US-Mexico borders and statistics today first. Trump may have the luxury of changing faces and hats of his team. But he cannot escape from his own instincts and mentality as a bossy powerful and cunning businessman as he faces a new dynamic world order, in which his country happens to be just the number one player!

The issues at stake today are much intimidating and bigger than Trump’s credentials, ambitions and instincts! Yes, he can tackle some pending socioeconomic problems at home, apply “anesthesia” techniques to address other international problems like the situation in the Middle East or the relations
with China or Iran or Russia, but he cannot ever put an end to any of the above, once for all in just four years!

Opinion

First Mrs President!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
August 22, 2024

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

June 28 of this year was not a good day for the leadership of the Democratic Party or their supporters in the US.

Across the board, they were disappointed and perplexed by the performance of incumbent (D) President Joe Biden, as he faced the more aggressive and outspoken (R) nominee Donald Trump, in their first TV debate, before empty chairs in the room, for the 2024 presidential elections.

The Trump camp and republican sympathizers, at the close of the debate, felt reassured that the gates to the White House, this time, were sliding more towards their direction!

As a matter of fact, for both sides, the results of the race, at that moment, were almost decided. It was simply a matter of time!

When asked about his options, President Biden kept saying that he was not going anywhere, and was looking for the next debate!

Not old movies!

As if watching one of those boring classical movies, where the end is so predictable, the American public and observers around the globe, were bracing themselves for the imperative sequence of this version of presidential race in similar disenchanted mood!

It took Joe Biden nearly a month, precisely on July 21 to, bravely, announce that he was withdrawing from the race to the benefit of his VP Kamala Harris.

The boring classical movie then suddenly took a new unexpected turn and the spectators started queuing again for new refreshments and popcorn!

Overnight, the morbid atmosphere within the ranks and file of the Democratic Party got energized; a reminiscent of a wounded eagle, which starts flapping its wings, after receiving a magic dose of injection, capable of waking up even a sleeping dinosaur!

Fundraising machines were set back in motion; volunteers started enlisting; chapters’ committees regrouped and the whole scene transformed into action, enthusiasm and optimism.

A dramatic shift that would surprise allies, rivals and neutrals alike! As for the republican rivals, represented by their notorious nominee, Donald Trump, the atmosphere took a gloomier turn as new polls started showing alarming percentages of approval and disapproval for one camp and the other!

The tie was dramatically shifting in favor of the new nominee of the Democrats, Mrs. Harris! The personality who remained, for four years, in the shade of Biden’s 50 years long legacy in politics.

Without much to talk about financial largesse or political experience, and coming from a mixed blend of immigrants to the US, Mrs. Harris today, is standing tall in face of Trump, the life-long tycoon of wealth and affluence.

A factor that will definitely add to the wrath and chagrin of Trump, who upon hearing the nomination of his substitute rival in the presidential race, in clear and typical insinuation to her ethnical origin, clumsily asked: “When did she become black”?

Well, Mr. ex-President, Trump, ready your staff next January to draft a descent congratulatory note to the first ever Mrs. 47th President of the US!

Opinion

Netanyahu in the Eye of the Storm!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
August 17, 2024

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

CROSSFIREARABIA – Whatever our political affiliations might be, there is no denying that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying to navigate his way through the worst crisis that hit Israel since 1948.

As this crisis gathered momentum, Netanyahu became more and more inclined to think that he was “chosen” for this once in a life-time moment! In this regard, he likes to liken himself to Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt and likens the 7th Oct., – Hamas audacious full scale attack on Israeli settlements encircling the Gaza Strip – to that of America’s Pearl Harbor of 1941.

Before this devastating development, Netanyahu was busy with couple of matters. For instance, he considered Iran’s nuclear ambitions a life-threatening element to Israel. He would not waste any chance to emphasize that. In all of his speeches on international platforms, his picture holding the diagram showing Iran’s progress in making its own nuclear weapon, became familiar to the eyes of the world.

At the same time, he was engaged in disputes with critics and allies over the future of the Arab occupied territories since 1967 war, primarily the West Bank, which he and his like-minded Israeli politicians, are relentlessly trying to annex to “little Israel”!

De facto factor

Netanyahu and his clique, shared the impression that while the international public opinion in the late 1940s tolerated Israel’s de facto encroachment on territories that were originally allocated to the Palestinians according to the UN partition plan (181). Today he hopes that Israeli continuous attempts to acquire additional Palestinian territories will be, as well, tolerated and eventually neglected and forgotten!

To turn this plan into reality, he followed the example of Israeli successive governments since 1967 war when they embarked on building settlements for immigrant Jews brought in from all over the world. Today, there are more than half a million settlers in the West Bank against 3 million Palestinians, plus the 220,000 Israelis in East Jerusalem, against 372,000 Palestinians.

Dawn of 7th Oct.

Then rises the dawn of 7 Oct., 2023 to dynamite all the above mentioned plans and dreams of Netanyahu and his likeminded right-wing allies!

The surprise full scale attack by Hamas shocked the world and humiliated Netanyahu, for he was the man behind the strategy to strengthen and enrich the Hamas movement in Gaza, while undermining the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah to widen the gap between the two competing representatives of the Palestinian people.

Netanyahu cannot pardon himself as he was the man who had in 2011, sanctioned the release of the now Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, along other 1000 Palestinian prisoners, in exchange for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who was abducted by the Islamic movement back in 2006.

By deepening the wedge between the two Palestinian rival groups, Netanyahu’s plan was to tell the world that there was no reliable Palestinian partner to make peace with. According to his logic, the Palestinian Authority is corrupt, weak and unpopular, and Hamas is a “terrorist” organization with whom Israel, by law, cannot talk with!

Such an argument would leave the fate of the West Bank, solely and helplessly, in the hands of Netanyahu’s Likud Party and the other extreme right-wing parties, whose main reason d’etre, is the annexation of the West Bank, while at the same time continually applying different tactics to expel, as many Palestinians as possible from beyond the green line of 1948, or what the world concurs as calling “ethnic cleansing”!

The year after!

In years to come, Israeli school children, if we could dig into Netanyahu’s mind, will be taught that Theodor Herzl was the founder of Zionism in 1889, David Ben Gurion, the founder of “little Israel” in 1948 and Netanyahu was the man who tried to outmaneuver the waves of the storm!

Who can resist such a toxic temptation? A war criminal, as some Israeli liberals call him, Netanyahu seems to care less what others think or say of him!