Saleem Ayoub Quna, Author at CrossFireArarbia

For South Lebanon, All You Need is Few Miracles!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
June 3, 2026

The fourth round of negotiations between representatives of the Lebanese Government, in the person of the Lebanese Ambassador to Washington, and representatives of the Israeli government, under the cuddling attitude of the State Department, to reach some kind of agreement between the two odd neighbors in the Middle East, look like a friendly, yet an absurd endeavor of witch-hunting, that can only render the caterers and planners of the event, happy! For each team are supposed to ask their counterparts to agree to things that are beyond their jurisdiction or authority, to say yes or no, under the current circumstances!

Israel wants the government of Lebanon to agree to a peace accord with it like the ones concluded, long time ago, with Egypt, PLO and Jordan, just to give a finger to Iran and its Shia active and militarily strong allies in Lebanon. For their part, the Lebanese delegation would be shyly telling the Israeli negotiators that before any other item is considered, Israeli forces have to be out of Lebanese territories first.

Official Israel and Lebanon are fully aware that such meetings will lead to nowhere, as long as back home and on the ground, where the real cooking is taking place, ‘chefs’ are having good time doing their best to burn the food further!

But as hopeful amateurs, certain individuals in Washington DC who are probably not educated enough or familiar with Middle Eastern zig-zags, or just pretending to be up to something, seem to be rehearsing for
future similar events!

A special tailored ceasefire in Lebanon now will be absolutely not useful for the Israelis. But it could be arranged with American urging and blessing, just to give the impression that something can be done. It will be a message to the Iranians and the world that, yes we can have a ceasefire in Lebanon now, it is your turn to be flexible on the Hormuz entanglement! While the original story was a complete reverse, meaning we can have a ceasefire around Hormuz, only if we had one in south Lebanon! But here is the real picture on the ground.

Israel is holding the whole area of south Lebanon and its nearly 400 villages as a hostage, thanks to its ability to hit any spot in Lebanon and in Beirut in particular. It is a bargaining chip to pressure the Lebanese government to submit to an official deal that would by-pass Hezbollah and the Shia component in the Lebanese Parliament. While Hezbollah and their local allies refuse to concede their arms to the central government in Beirut, claiming that such a move would be interpreted as a concession to Israel.

So, if I were to advice the Israelis on how to outsmart their opponents in Lebanon, I would tell them, you can stop your absurd war in Lebanon immediately, and start withdrawing your soldiers from areas they entered after the last ceasefire announced between Iran and the US and Israel, and wait for their reaction to that!

And if I were to advice Hezbollah, I would tell them do not target villages or civilians within Israel international borders and make clear that you only target Israeli military presence within Lebanese international borders, and wait for a reaction!

And finally, if I were to advice the Americans on this particular issue, which looks actually like a replicate of their other similar moves and initiatives in the region, since June 2025, when President Trump, willingly swallowed the pill prescribed to him by Dr. Netanyahu, to end the Iranian headache, I would say this: Might, like cash, is not the answer to all problems! It is only a temporary remedy, like the cash that cannot buy you happiness, but the delusion that you are experiencing
it!

The entanglement in south Lebanon will not be solved by apprentices in history and geography meeting in air-conditioned elegant rooms in Washington DC, but there on the grounds of south Lebanon, where valleys, trees, rivers, mountains, villages and people have long time ago, concluded among themselves, without external interference, an eternal verbal memorandum of understanding, that they were doomed to live or perish there in rotation, exactly like the four seasons of the
year!

It all worked out smoothly there since, without miracles!

Opinion

The Chinese Fortune Cookie and The “Thucydides Trap”! A View From Amman

Saleem Ayoub Quna
May 15, 2026

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

Nearly 2000 years ago, there lived a prosperous Empire in ‘Athens’ which dominated the whole region of ancient Greece, along the hundreds of islands in the Aegean Sea. It was situated approximately 200 kilometers away from another military strong city, an empire called ‘Sparta’.

The advisors of the Emperor of Athens started warning their leadership of the growing power of this relatively distant neighbor, which could pose an imminent threat to its supremacy, and even to the existence of their empire in Athens as well.

In one of the ancient Greek ‘think-tanks’ in Athens also, lived a general and philosopher, who was monitoring the evolution of relations between the two city states. His name was ‘Thucydides’. He foresaw disaster and advised his fellow Athenians to resist the temptation to go after the Spartans, in order to quell the possibility that their power might expand and grow bigger in the region, and threaten and challenge the actual supremacy of Athens.

He begged them not to fall to such an illusionary trap. Sparta seemingly was minding its own business and was not fully aware of Athens’ fears and phobia of the unknown.

‘Thucydides’ kept warning his own people about such eventuality, but to no avail. The war finally broke out and it was called the “Peloponnesian war” that lasted for nearly three decades. Its endgame was a humiliating defeat for Athens, and a decisive victory for Sparta.

In the first decade of this century, a certain Graham Allison, a professor of political science at Harvard School for International Studies, was studying and analyzing this pattern of hostile relations between nations, built on suspicion and mistrust.

Out of 16 wars in the world, big and small, he found out, 12 wars erupted between nations, precisely because of, not similar, but identical circumstances, where a certain nation would fear the rising power and influence of another nation, and decides to go to war to eliminate this imaginary threat, so the former would keep its clout and domination.

While studying and tracking back cases of war from modern times such as WWI and WWII and other older conflicts, and when he reached the “Peloponnesian War, 431-404 BC” in Greece, he came up with a simple conclusion that causes such wars between nations, which is the fear of a nation of another nation’s power and ill-intentions! And he brilliantly dubs it the “Thucydides Trap” thus emulating the first experienced and documented war of this kind in ancient Greece, nearly 2000 years ago!

Now we come back to our present day and astonishingly hear Chinese President Xi Jinping warning his powerful visitor, US President Trump, and himself not to submit to the “Thucydides Trap” which many nations in the past did!

What is also amazing in this regard, is first, that the Chinese leader alluded to that ancient lesson which happened in Greece that lies thousands of miles away from China, and second, is how the smart and knowledgeable Xi Jinping’s speech writers, were as they inserted Graham Allison’s most famous political coinage in connection with today’s issues of war and peace!

In conclusion, I would like to list two questions and one footnote:

Does not the name “Thucydides” phonetically rhyme with the word “suicide”, especially if you could listen to its pronunciation in Greek!

Does not the “War of choice” launched against Iran on the pretext that it is posing a threat to Israel, squarely fall under the category of “Thucydides Trap” wars?

When Sparta won the war against Athens, it was significantly due to Persian support against Athens, bearing in mind that the Persians were the forefathers of present-day Iranians!

Opinion

Trump: Tunes, Ceasefire and Hormuz

Saleem Ayoub Quna
April 23, 2026

Saleem Ayoub Quna

The latest ceasefire by Trump reminded me of an aspiring young violinist, who every time she started playing her own written piece, the tunes of her instrument would go havoc!

Last move, the declaration of a ceasefire with no deadline, by President Donald Trump on the Hormuz virtual chessboard with Iran, did not lack the usual element of surprise. Still, it was a relief for some, annoying for others and revealing for a third group!

While at it in the White House, the Pakistani host intermediaries in the other side of the hemisphere, were stood up for the arrival of the negotiation teams, who seemingly were hindered by other conflicting schedules, while pilots of the jet fighters, in the air bases and on board destroyers, and the launchers of missiles, drones and anti–missile batteries, were all getting itchy over the delay of orders from their commanders, which left TV anchors and other commentators, boringly speculating and redundant!

After the two rounds of exchanging intensive missile and rocket attacks, between Iran and the US-Israeli axis, in less than a year, using the open skies over the Middle East from the Mediterranean to the Gulf area, as a last resort to make each party’s views clearer to the other, President Trump, the man who happens to hold most of the important cards in his hands, seems today, to have come to the conclusion, that neither his message, nor his tools, or even his sheer luck have helped making his message loud and clear enough to his opponents and to the rest of world!

Luck in this context can be associated with the totality of internal, regional and world unanticipated reactions to this complicated conflict, in terms of rising oil and gas prices for the average consumer, whether in Europe, North America or in Eastern Asia. It is highly suspected that these instruments in the hands of Trump, started producing tunes that were not written or desired by Trump himself, and if they did, it was just a kind of dissonance!

It is also very probable that Trump’s tactics as a deal maker, continuously changing his tone and vocabulary, made his listeners lose track of his true original storyline, if there was one! But more seriously, weighing and counting the odds that have befell Trump in the aftermath of the breakout of the war, some of which were

of his own making, and other developments that came out as natural by-products of the original move!

Following is a rundown of those unexpected unpleasant by-products, or side-effects, some of which might turn into chronicle headaches*, of the whole initiative which Trump had closely coordinated with his persistent ally, Netanyahu, the first in June 2025, when the two of them orchestrated the “Midnight Hammer” surprise operation against sensitive Iranian targets, and the second round “Epic Fury” on Feb28 this year, while negotiators were in session:

1. Rise of oil and gas price in world markets

2. Drop of share prices in stock markets

3. Fracture with NATO*

4. Decline in Republican Party ratings ahead of the midterms congressional elections in November

5. Resurgence of Trump’s friendship with Epstein’s scandals.

6. Firing key US generals in the midst of crisis, culminated by ousting Navy Secretary, John Phelan.

7. Emulating Jesus Christ in a replica image!

8. Personal row with Pope Leo who stands as the most respectful living figure in the Western civilization.*

9. Lebanon and Hezbollah’s connection.*

10. The Strait of Hormuz new strategic entanglement*

None of the above problems or symptoms of problems, except for point 5 and 9, existed before Trump made up his mind to go into war against Iran last year. Even back in 2018 during his first term, Trump shocked the world by tearing up the Iran-nuclear deal approved by Obama’s Administration after being endorsed by the rest of the Western powers. No one expected that Trump would go this far in his second term, except the Prime Minister of Israel!

All things considered, the whole world, minus Israel, was shocked by the magnitude of the bombings to finish Iran’s potentials to own its own nuclear knowhow and capabilities. All of which leaves me wondering if this latest ambiguous ceasefire, and the way it was presented and its timing, will prove to be a real turning point in the ongoing strife in the Middle East, or just another boring maneuvering tactic by Trump!

As for the fate of young aspiring violinist, it was said that after she had discovered that her violin was not authentic but a replica, she decided to become a soprano!

Opinion

Hamlet in The White House!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
March 24, 2026

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

There must be something very unusual going on in the head of the 47th President of the US, to the degree that it could be detrimental to himself, to his own people and to the rest of the world, as we know it since the end of WWII; a kind of a personalized erratic approach to reality, based exclusively, on the notion of profit and loss, of take not give, especially in monetary terms.

From his younger age, Mr. Trump was not just any ordinary successful business man who would tolerate a ceiling for his ambitions. He was an over-ambitious entrepreneur with multi-branched interests. As a leading real-estate developer, thriving in a culture built on competition and affluence in all aspects of life, sometimes at the expense of choosing between right and wrong, upholding justice, tolerance versus other ethnic groups, and adherence to basic moral standards, as preached by different schools of philosophy and ideology, Trump ventured into all sorts of domains such as wrestling, movies, TV shows,
casinos, resort hotels and so forth. He was an unstoppable adventurer with strongly-rooted instinct to win every bet he made, until a more challenging idea would click in his mind!

Mr. Trump was lured to politics from the early days of 1980s, but he never made a serious move until four decades or so later. There are some reasons for that long hold of course, but one consideration that must have played a decisive role, had to do with his awareness that working in politics would not make him richer!

But as time goes by, one gets older, wiser and less adventurous! Trump reached this stage during the second decade of the 21st century; He felt he is getting older and that made him boring and bored at the
same time! So one night, his nemesis pays him a sudden call and immediately he bows to it. As a result he puts on his new mantel as the Supreme Commander of the free world for one term (2017-2021) which
ends with a historical unprecedented incursion of the Capitol by his supporters, on the grounds that his winning opponent, Joe Biden, rigged the elections!

Four years later it’s the comeback of the wounded warrior! This time Trump has learned many important lessons of how to be a Supreme Commander, while openly tampering with the idea of a third term in
2028! Trump’s first move was to fortify his newly reclaimed fortress with completely obedient entourage, so he could release all his non-depletable genius and energy reserve.

Now it’s time for closing some old accounts; it’s time to play! Within days in office, Trump expresses his wish to welcome Canada to his empire as its 51 st state. Then he changes the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, because it is more beautiful! Later he targets US monuments such as the Kennedy Center, the International Airport in Virginia and Pennsylvania Station for the same purpose!

Another morning he wakes up to tell the world that the US should take over Greenland, one way or the other. While the ‘Venezuela’ over-night expedition was seen by many, including Trump himself, as a clip from an animated action movie, where the good cops with their IA run sophisticated machinery and technology, apprehends a notorious out-of-law gangster and flies him to jail!

Trump’s latest games which was clumsily suspended last year in June, is the same one, unfolding before our eyes these days with Iran. The latest update on this dangerous game was Trump’s devious
attempt to curb the unexpected financial repercussions in the world oil market and their consequent direct impact on his domestic rating versus the Democrats vying for midterm elections this coming
November.

For Trump this would be a red line that no one is allowed to tamper with. This is one of the bet games which he cannot lose: Who will control the House and the Senate next November? It is that kind of
situation that could make him quote Hamlet the Prince of Denmark, the legendary character portrayed by Shakespeare when he shouted; “To be, or not to be, that is the question”!

Hamlet was addressing a ghost!

Opinion

BoP and The Lurking Devil!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
March 5, 2026

Eight months ago and precisely in June 2025, the US and Israel launched their first combined “Midnight Hammer” military operation against Iran, in an attempt to obliterate its controversial nuclear facilities, set since 2018, to be settled through negotiations between the US and Iran. Prior to that strike, not Ukraine nor Venezuela or Greenland, but Gaza was the hottest issue on Trump’ international agenda, as he was applying the final touches on his anticipated peace plan for the devastated tiny strip! On 26 January this year, i.e. nearly a month ago, Trump from Davos, in Switzerland, proudly announced the birth of BoP, “The Board of Peace”, which he would preside over forever.

To enhance his initiative’s chances to succeed, Trump had invited world leaders to join his new born club for peace. Those who responded favorably had little choice to do otherwise, and some of them promised to contribute billions of dollars to make the plan work. Other big shots such as Russia, France or China were either not interested or invited!

The last one to join the club, but reluctantly, was no other than the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, despite his direct involvement in the thick of the matter. Netanyahu thought the plan was naïve and amateurish in more than one aspect! So he would send his Foreign Minister to attend the signing ceremony in Davos, for his own thoughts were focused on other more important issues that would take place later! Regardless of Netanyahu’s caveats, the Trump BoP seemed to be one of few feasible options to stop the violence and killing committed by Israel.

in Gaza, and a shy start towards a peaceful transition in Gaza and beyond despite the many loopholes.
On this occasion Trump said: “This is a big, big day, a beautiful day, potentially one of the great days ever in civilization”. The he added: “I am not talking about Gaza. Gaza is one thing, but we are talking about
much beyond Gaza. The whole deal, everything getting solved. It is called peace in the Middle East”. While this BoP was hailed as an achievement for Trump’s diplomacy, envisaged by his top capable advisor to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and his assistant Jared Kushner, Trump’s trusted son-in-law, it whistled disaster in Netanyahu’s ears.

From this man’s point of view, if the BoP was put on track of the peace train, let alone its arrival at its desired destination, it would mean one thing and nothing else: the end of Gaza tragedy which also meant the end of Netanyahu’s political career. For him, it looked like a trap that he had, knowingly but unwillingly, a role in setting up. At this crucial moment the manipulative devil and the survival instinct in
Netanyahu, were awakened and pushed him to embark on planning a reversal of this momentum. He had to end this nonsense talk about peace for Gaza, let alone beyond! For certain, he regretted his consent to the suspension of the Midnight-Hammer strike back in June against Iran. Now time is running short for him again.

He needs to take a big and last gamble to divert Trump’s current menacing approach to solve the thorny issues in this region. He, prematurely, and ahead of his originally scheduled visit to the US, books
a meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, thus effecting his sixth meeting with Trump in less than a year!

There, he presents his case: Today, he tells Trump, Iran is the biggest real danger facing Israel and the free world led by the US; Iran is stockpiling an arsenal of all kinds of deadly missiles; the majority of
Iranians want the US to help them topple the regime which is massacring the protesters in the streets; Iranian negotiating team are just buying more time; it is now or a never again chance to finish this
nightmare called Iran, after its proxies in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon were defeated earlier.
Trump submissively listened, as Netanyahu managed to put a hold on every other item on Trump’s agenda, including his cherished BoP project for which he hoped to be nominated for the Nobel Prize for
peace!

Today as the war against Iran goes into its sixth day, two things and plus are crystal clear; there will be no peace prizes, and there will lot of havoc and chaos on the ground, plus the devil in Netanyahu, will be the happiest breathing creature around, for the time being!