Avi Ashkenazi: Hamas is Pushing Israeli Army Into a Quagmire

An Israeli military analyst said Friday, Hamas is waging a “guerrilla war” against the Israeli army in Gaza, and that decisions made by the current government are pushing it toward a quagmire.

Avi Ashkenazi, a military analyst for the Maariv newspaper, explained Hamas is trying to maintain its military strength, and its fighters know this territory; it is their stronghold.

“They (Hamas fighters) are not waging a defensive battle, but rather an offensive one through guerrilla cells. They monitor the Israeli forces from afar, know where they operate, their routines are, and look for their weak spots” he added.

“The cells prefer to operate in the afternoon, during daylight, when the sun is shining. When they realize the right time, they emerge from several openings of a single tunnel and begin the attack with an anti-tank missile, followed by sniper fire or the dropping of grenades,” Ashkenazi continued.

“The problem does not lie in the tactical management of the campaign by the army, but rather lies solely at the political level.”

“The political class is waging a war for political survival, and its decisions are pushing the army into a quagmire, even though Gaza has not seen a single drop of rain in weeks.”

“Israel must reach an agreement to release the hostages (held by Palestinian factions in Gaza) as soon as possible, even if the price is high, which is the release of (Palestinian) prisoners, and even if it means retreating to the border fence of Gaza, even if it means providing guarantees that the war will not resume,” he added.

“Hamas is Hamas, and sooner or later it will violate one of the terms of the agreement, which will allow Israel to move to complete the war’s objectives and deprive it of the ability to govern and militarize,” he continued.

“The wild and impudent words directed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir during the cabinet meeting illustrate the impasse facing some members of the political leadership,” Ashkenazi pointed out.

“The inability of the political echelons to make decisions makes it difficult for the army to manage the campaign (the war of extermination) well, quickly, and sharply.

When this happens in this type of campaign, where there is a large army (Israel) on the one side and a guerrilla organization (Hamas) on the other, the large army becomes vulnerable,” Ashkanazi stressed.

On Tuesday, the Israeli security cabinet meeting witnessed severe tensions between Smotrich and both Zamir and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar. The Hebrew media reported that the dispute began when Smotrich sharply criticized the army’s refusal to assume responsibility for distributing aid, arguing the army lacked the authority to choose its own missions.

He told Zamir: “Those who cannot carry out their missions should go home.” Zamir responded by rejecting these statements, prompting several ministers to ask Smotrich to lower his tone.

Throughout the ongoing genocide perpetrated by Israel in Gaza since October 7, 2023, Tel Aviv has been attempting to impose total control over the Gaza Strip by dismembering it and displacing its population, in addition to its attempts to eliminate Hamas and recover the prisoners in Gaza.

However, Israel has been unable to fully achieve these goals over the months of war, exposing Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to criticism both from the extreme right, which wants to tighten the noose on the Strip, and from leftists, who aspire to recover the prisoners from Gaza, even if the price is a ceasefire.

Tel Aviv estimates that there are 59 Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip, 24 of whom are still alive. Meanwhile, more than 9,500 Palestinians are languishing in its prisons, suffering torture, starvation, and medical neglect, many of whom have died, according to Palestinian and Israeli human rights and media reports.

With full American support, Israel has been committing genocide in Gaza since October 7, 2023, leaving more than 168,000 Palestinians dead and wounded, most of them children and women, and more than 11,000 missing according to Anadolu.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

Related Posts

Reshuffling Cards: Trump and Netanyahu’s Nightmare

(Crossfirearabia.com) – Benjamin Netanyahu hadn’t finished patting himself on the back for destroying the Sanaa International Airport – after all Israeli warplanes hit the country twice in less than 24 hours – before US President Donald Trump dramatically announced he had just reached a deal with the Houthis to stop striking Yemen. Shock, surprise, horror!

Trump added the Houthis promised in turn they would halt targeting all ships, including US vassals and tankers entering the world-trade-crucial Bab El Mandeb Straits, the Red Sea and presumably the Arabian Sea, just off the tip of the country in the south.

Thus, in one full swoop and at a strike of a pen, the war between the US and the Houthis, started in earnest since 15 March had come to an end in a mesmerizing fashion. During this time, the Americans had made at least a total of 1300 air-raids on Yemen in a bid to end the Houthis who had been striking Israel with ballistic missiles on a regular basis since 7 October, 2023 when Israel started bombarding Gaza.

The country that was behind the deal was Oman who had indeed announced, Tuesday, that an agreement between the United States and the Houthis, the effective but not internationally recognized government in Yemen, was reached to stop the war.

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said in a statement on X that: “Following recent discussions and contacts conducted by the Sultanate of Oman with the United States and the relevant authorities in Sana’a, in the Republic of Yemen, with the aim of de-escalation, efforts have resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the two sides,” as carried by Anadolu.

Analysts since suggested that the deal was reached because the two sides had wanted to end the open-ended escalation that was proving very costly not least of all to the United States which hiked the US treasury bill to about $1 billion dollars since its campaign, mostly to support Israel, in less than one month of military action.

The Houthis on the other hand didn’t want to fight on two fronts, the Americans and the Israelis. For them ending one front was perfectly logical to focus on strikes against Israel in a bid to end the latter’s war on Gaza, and which Israel has promised to step up soon and added to the misery and genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.

In agreeing to stop attacking shipping in the area they were of the firm belief that Trump had not meant that no firing against Israel as part of the deal which meant they would continue to strike Jewish cities, airports areas and military installations, more than 2000 kilometers away, until Israel ends its war on Gaza.

It is still too early to read into how things will unfold, especially since Trump is coming to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf in mid-May, but everyone is seeing the deal as creating a wedge between the US-Israeli alliance on matters relating to US security in the region and especially on the Iran nuclear file, where incessant negotiations – now in their third and fourth rounds -are taking place for the first time between Washington and Tehran in Muscat and through an Omani team lead by their formidable Omani Foreign Minister Albusaidi as mediator.

These are developments that are clearly upsetting Netanyahu who is dead against any nuclear deal that may be reached between the White House and Tehran and wants to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities regardless of the dangerous consequences. But this is seen as a critical line between Trump and Netanyahu while the former is determined to initial a new nuclear deal which he would see as a great US success and for his diplomacy in checking Iran’s nuclear weapon.

International issues as they stand are still fluid for Trump is looking for certain objectives most of all includes his slogan of “Make America Great Again”, focusing on his domestic scene, and not getting involved in unnecessary war around the globe, hence his wish to end the Ukraine War, the war on Gaza and achieve a new nuclear deal with Iran; these are objectives, especially they last two, are not at all in line with the Netanyahu who is attacking Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and occasionally Yemen.

Thus the last deal between Trump and the Houthis, regardless of whether it would stick in the end, is surely likely to be a “splitting headache” for Netanyahu, from a man who was once seen as great friend to Israel.

But the Israeli Prime Minister must not forget that Trump is no pushover, he is a broker who likes to do things his own way.

This analysis is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website. 

Continue reading
Analysts: US Fails on Houthis After Six Weeks of Bombing

After nearly six weeks of intensive US airstrikes on different areas and cities of Yemen the Houthi Ansar Allah continues to assert that its military operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets will not stop until the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip ends.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, Saturday, announced the targeting of the Israeli Nevatim Air Base in the Negev with a ballistic missile, as well as two other sites in the Tel Aviv and Ashkelon areas and the targeting of warships on the US aircraft carrier SS Harry Truman in the northern Red Sea are just part of the continuing ongoing military strikes.

However in response to these attacks the US aircraft launched two airstrikes last Friday night on the Ras Isa oil port in the coastal province of Al Hudaydah, which Washington considers a major source of fuel used to finance the Ansar Allah group’s activities.

According to Dr Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, the USA has failed miserably in its strikes against the Houthis because of its inability to move to the second phase. He said that as a result they are  discussing an alternative scenario for this military campaign against the Houthis.

Makki believes that US President Donald Trump has reached a dead end, and that the ceiling he set regarding the Houthis is proven unrealistic, pointing out the United States, despite its military strength, is failing in Yemen because it is fighting a group, not a state.

On the other hand, military and strategic expert Brigadier-General Elias Hanna, believes that both sides are losing, whilst the image of the United States is being damaged, given the scale of the US military campaign and Trump’s engagement with the Houthis, who previously declared that  “we [US] will withdraw from all the world’s wars.”

Reports estimate the cost of the airstrikes carried out by the US military on Houthi positions amounted to approximately $1 billion in the first three weeks of the military campaign alone.

The Associated Press reported the value of the seven downed American drones made by the Houthis exceed $200 million, and the continued loss of American drones makes it difficult for the US leadership to accurately determine the extent of the damage to the Houthis’ weapons stockpiles.

Brigadier-General Hanna said that Washington lacks a comprehensive strategy in its dealings with the Houthis, and that the political goal it announced—restoring deterrence and opening shipping lanes—has not been achieved.

He also pointed out the US military is targeting the centers of gravity within the Houthi military system to disrupt it, a strategy Israel has used with the Palestinian resistance but has failed to achieve.

Appeasing the Houthis

In light of Washington’s inability to achieve its goals against the Houthis, Brigadier-General Hanna believes the pressure being exerted on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip is part of an effort to appease the Houthis so that they will halt their operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets.

Trump’s upcoming visit to the region also requires a de-escalation. According to the military and strategic expert, the US president cannot arrive while the Houthis are launching missiles.

In the same context, the senior Al Jazeera’s Makki expects  that a Gaza ceasefire will soon be reached before Trump’s visit, allowing the Houthis to halt their operations as they have initially linked the cessation of their operations to an end to the war on Gaza and to the cessation of US strikes against them.

American officials have previously revealed to CNN that the US military has struck more than 700 Houthi targets and carried out 300 airstrikes since the campaign began in mid-March, “forcing them underground and creating confusion and chaos within their ranks.”

Continue reading

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You Missed

Trump Slams Door on Netanyahu

Trump Slams Door on Netanyahu

Ottoman Painting Fetches $1.3 Million in London

Ottoman Painting Fetches $1.3 Million in London

Hamas Welcomes New Pope in Rome

Hamas Welcomes New Pope in Rome

Israel Drops 100,000 Tons of Explosives on Gaza