Analysis – Israeli Army Can Only Move at Night

Military and strategic expert, Maj-Gen Fayez Al-Duwairi said the Israeli occupation army is not able to advance in northern Gaza Strip except at night, indicating this is creating new challenges for the Palestinian resistance.

Differences this time

Al-Duwairi explained the differences between the current Israeli military operation here, and its previous operations, highlighting the new tactics followed by the occupation army and the challenges posed to Palestinian resistance groups.

He pointed out while there are ongoing battles and heavy Israeli losses including the destruction of vehicles and the killing of their soldiers, he believes the occupation’s success in isolating the Jabalia camp from all four sides has created a different reality this time around.

Moving at night

But he stressed most of the occupation’s main advances take place at night, attributing this fact to the resistance’s lack of night vision weapons with infrared rays. He pointed out this allows the occupation forces to set up barricades and achieve additional progress, even at limited distances ranging between 50 and 70 meters.

The military expert added this situation has created a new problem for the resistance it has not been exposed to before, despite its success in inflicting heavy losses on the occupation forces.

He drew attention to the seriousness of the humanitarian situation, noting there are about 150,000 Palestinians trapped in an area of ​​no more than two square kilometers, with Israeli tanks standing at the doors of shelters.

Human shields

Al-Duwairi believes it is as if the Israeli army is using civilians as human shields, making it difficult for resistance fighters to carry out their duties without risking harm to these civilians, considering this situation as one of the biggest challenges facing fighters, which they did not face in previous military incursions.

Commenting on the video shown by the Israeli army of the leader of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) Yahya Sinwar – which he said shows him with his family in a tunnel on the night of 7 October, 2023 – Al-Duwairi pointed out this video represents a “glorification of Sinwar and not condemnation of him.”

Not a 5-star hotel!

He explained the video shows the Hamas leader and the main planner of Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa living a difficult life inside the tunnels, not in a 5-star hotel, adding that he is the head of a family and is being directly targeted, and it is natural for him to seek to put his children in safety.

Al-Duwairi added the fact that Sinwar and his children lived for a year in the tunnels represents a sacrifice that must be appreciated, and he believed that the occupation’s attempt to use this video to condemn Sinwar may backfire, as he can be seen as a resistance leader who sacrifices his personal life for his cause.

Al-Duwairi believes that this video refutes the accusations directed at Sinwar and other Hamas leaders that they live a life of luxury, and that what appeared is that these leaders are not looking for a life of luxury, but seek to liberate the land, protect its honor, and are ready to die for the sake of God according to Al Jazeera.

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What is The ‘Generals’ Plan’ For North Gaza?

Two military experts said the military operation launched by the Israeli occupation army in the northern Gaza Strip is different from previous onslaughts and is aimed at implementing the so-called “Generals’ Plan” that has been adopted at the political level in Israel.

Military expert Maj-Gen Fayez Al-Duwairi, explained that the latest military operation is different from previous invasions, which were within a time frame that sought to gather information about fighters and leaders of the political and military resistance and searching for tunnels and detained prisoners.

He explained the new military operation is related to the “Generals’ Plan” that aims to gain absolute control over the northern Gaza Strip and empty it of its population up to the Netzarim axis, where the numbers range between 350,000 and 700,000.

He added the operation also comes within the framework of what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke regarding his aim to redraw the Middle East and with the ongoing Israeli reports about re-establishing settlements in the northern Gaza Strip.

Late last month, Israeli Army Radio reported that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant approved a study of possible operations in Gaza based on the “Generals’ Plan,” which calls for  blockading the northern Gaza Strip, halting  humanitarian aid and evacuating its residents.

CNN quoted a former Israeli military official as saying the plan aims to turn the northern Gaza Strip into a closed military zone, besiege Hamas fighters and “force them to surrender or starve.”

Al-Duwairi said that implementing the “Generals’ Plan” requires military action on the ground to evacuate civilians who are concentrated in the Jabalia, Shujaiya, Zeitoun, and Sheikh Radwan neighborhoods according to Al Jazeera.

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Al Duwairi: Attack Shows Strong Iran, Israel’s Intelligence Failure

Military expert Major-General Fayez Al-Duwairi said the latest Iranian attack reflects a new intelligence failure for Israel, stressing it was different from its True Promise attack that took place last April, and reflects seriousness in its response.

The recent attack was carried out from several areas in Iran which reflects good preparation, especially since each batch of the trajectories headed towards specific targets. He noted the missiles used were hypersonic, which reflects Tehran’s seriousness in its response, Al-Duwairi said on Al Jazeera.

The military expert stressed the call by Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari for people to leave the underground shelters a few minutes before the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the launch of another wave of missiles represents a major intelligence failure on the part of Israel.

Al-Duwairi added this latest attack reflects great coordination for Iran, adding the great silence that preceded the launch is a credit to Tehran as it was different from the attack last April.

Although the results of the strike and its losses are not yet known, Al-Duwairi said the at least 250 missiles cannot but cause losses.

Possibilities of others entering

Israel said it will respond to this attack regardless of the repercussions, while Iran’s UN mission warned any Israeli response to this attack will be met with a devastating response.

The strategic expert pointed out Iran is still committed not to strike any US military bases in Middle East region, and that the Ain al-Assad base was targeted by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. He said this puts us in a state of great confusion.

He said this latest attack on Israel will lead to the erosion of the strategic gains Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps boasting about and in saying he will change the shape of the Middle East.

He pointed out Iran has already sent a clear message that any counterattack to this one will be met with a devastating response, indicating Israel may be subjected to strikes from the Houthi Ansar Allah group in Yemen and from the Lebanese Hezbollah.

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Duwairi: Hezbollah Able to Manage The Battle

Military expert Retired Major General Fayez al-Duwairi said Hezbollah is still able to manage the defensive battle effectively and powerfully despite the Israeli onslaught which have not undermined its combat capabilities.

Duwairi explained Hezbollah, Thursday, launched five large missile barrages despite the intensive Israeli air campaign and assassinations that targeted prominent military leaders, including Fouad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil, and the bombing of pagers and walkie-talkies.

According to the strategic expert, the combat organizations that are fighting an asymmetric war with a regular Israeli army that has great capabilities “have in their calculations, to be exposed to painful strikes that may abort their combat power if they move to the traditional approach.”

Accordingly, there are fixed instructions for the fighters that at some point communications may be lost and the chain of command may be struck through concentrated assassinations, “but this does not mean the collapse of the combat power, as planning is centralized but implementation is decentralized,” he added on Al Jazeera.

The military expert touched on the combat capabilities possessed by Hezbollah, most notably its missile capabilities and their impact on Israel, in addition to artillery, drones, and field forces deployed in the south, central Bekaa, and Hermel, and the the Radwan Force, designed to carry out operations inside occupied Palestine.

Hezbollah’s missile force ranges between 100,000 and 200,000 missiles, 80% of which are unguided, according to Al-Duwairi who said that the party has not yet deployed medium- and long-range missiles.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considers what Israel achieved, so far, in terms of preemptive strikes, intensive assassinations, and bombings of communications and wireless devices are “military achievements that may disappear if he enters a ground war,” Al-Duwairi pointed out.

The military expert added that Hezbollah – 18 years after the 2006 war – has a large presence in southern Lebanon, and succeeded in harnessing the geographical turrain of the area to serve its defensive plan, noting it focuses on controlling combat nodes and target bank.

He concluded the entry of the Israeli occupation army into southern Lebanon “will not be a summer outing,” noting Israel’s strikes have targeted Hezbollah’s capabilities and its incubating environment, so far, “so the party is walking a tightrope between maintaining deterrence and not being dragged into a ground war.”

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Duwairi: Israel Not in Position For ‘Ground War’

Military expert Major-General Fayez Al-Duwairi said the Lebanese Hezbollah’s bombing of the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv is a qualitative but a disciplined shift so that things do not develop into a large-scale ground battle both sides are trying to avoid so far.

Earlier Wednesday, Hezbollah announced targeting the Mossad headquarters in the suburbs of Tel Aviv with a “Qader I” ballistic missile, in a precedent move since the beginning of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip about a year ago.

The party stated it targeted Mossad headquarters because it “is responsible for assassinating leaders and blowing up communication devices.”

According to Al-Duwairi, the party did not target Tel Aviv directly but rather targeted a military headquarters responsible for blowing up the pagers, which means it is an operation similar to the assassinations carried out by Israel in the Beirut suburb.

Therefore, he believes that the targetting does not mean bringing Tel Aviv into the unfolding battle, saying current Israel’s operations in Lebanon do not aim to destroy the suburb randomly. He added this reflects the keenness of both parties not to escalate in a way that leads to an open ground war, even if the comprehensive war is already underway.

No ground war yet

He explained the ground operation is the missing part of the comprehensive war between the two sides, suggesting Israel will continue to maintain this situation for another period in the hope of breaking Hezbollah’s will and subjecting it to its dictates.

He said Israel is using the Gaza Strip approach in Lebanon, but warned that the military solution will not be achieved and that Hezbollah will not retreat beyond the Litani River as Israel wants.

Al-Duwairi described Hezbollah’s operations as a war of pressure on the Israeli economy and society and not a war of attrition, noting the latter is based on targeting the civilian and military dimensions and that will only be completed through a ground confrontation.

He expected that a ground war would only break out if Netanyahu felt that the current pressure would not force Hezbollah to retreat. However, he pointed out that Israel previously remained in the Litani area for 20 years and was forced to leave due to the Lebanese resistance.

Hezbollah must rely on itself

He said the situation in southern Lebanon is completely different from Gaza, noting that Hezbollah will not deploy its forces on every square meter but will rely on the combat contracts that will grant it the desired victory in the end, because a ground confrontation means great losses for the occupation army.

Regarding Hezbollah’s strengths in a ground war, Al-Duwairi said they are represented in its ability to manage the battle and activate the unity of the arenas in Yemen and Iraq in an effective manner and not symbolically as is the case now according to Al Jazeera.

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