What Will The Future Hold For Palestine in 2025?

In 2024, there were a host of startling developments occurring in the Middle East and the wider world that impacted Palestine, most of them unforeseen 12 months ago: the continuation of the unrelenting Israeli genocide in Gaza, the battlefield defeat of Hezbollah and the devastation in Lebanon, the overthrow of Bashar Assad in Syria, the isolation of Iran, the election of Donald Trump, and a series of seminal rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC).

All of these seismic events make the assignment of imagining what Palestine’s future will be in 2025 a precarious task. Yet, with caution thrown to the wind, we can make some educated guesses on six leading features.


Leading scenarios for Palestine’s future

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency will certainly encourage Israel’s accelerating subjugation of the Palestinians. His major appointments on the Middle East – including his secretary of state, his ambassador to Israel, and his two regional envoys – are all diplomatic gifts to Israel’s far-right nationalist government. His political instincts are all about respecting the strong and disparaging the weak. The only restraint that Trump may impose on Israel would result from his quest for a substantive deal with Saudi Arabia, which is publicly demanding a credible path to Palestinian statehood.

A genuine Palestinian state is further away than ever. In 2025, more Palestinian land will be confiscated, more illegal Israeli settlements will be built, and settler violence, already at record levels, will only intensify. While Trump might restrict Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from formally annexing parts of the West Bank, de facto Israeli annexation will continue unabated. The ability of the Palestinian Authority to shape events in its favor will likely shrink even further. As for the comatose peace process, the Palestinians long ago arrived at a traffic intersection, and the red light never changed. It remains red today, its only color.

The genocidal war on Gaza will finally end with a formal ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, and some Palestinian detainees. However, the unimaginable toll of deaths and suffering among the Palestinian civilians in Gaza will continue, as starvation, infectious diseases, a decimated economy, and a devastated landscape afflict the population. Hamas won’t be completely defeated, but it has suffered a grievous blow in the short run. Israel will push hard to build settlements in the north and for clan warlords to run the rest of Gaza, which Trump might allow. Another great test will be the raising of the $40-60 billion needed for the reconstruction of Gaza; this will create tension between Trump and his Gulf states allies, who will resist paying the lion’s share of the consequences of a war they opposed.

Will the international community face the Palestine issue in 2025?

Respecting Palestine, the United Nations will face some of its most perilous challenges in 2025. The one-year deadline set by the General Assembly for Israel to completely end its occupation of Palestine arrives next September, with Israel and the US committed to defying the obligation. In addition, Israel – with Trump’s backing – is seeking to dismantle UNRWA, the UN agency that delivers education, health, and social services to Palestinian refugees in the Levant. The challenge for Europe and the Arab world will be whether they will defend the UN, its core commitment to successfully resolving the oldest item on its political agenda (Palestine), and the preservation of its largest agency.

Israel’s diplomatic isolation will continue, even as its relationship with its superpower patron will deepen. Its outlier status at the United Nations – particularly at the General Assembly and the Human Rights Council – will see even more lopsided votes against its 57-year-old occupation, its denial of Palestinian self-determination, and its abuse of international law. The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will make him politically radioactive, with heads of state and government that have signed the 1998 Rome Statute refusing to meet him. Pressure will grow within Europe to rethink various trade and cooperation agreements with Israel as a reaction to the war and its horrendous humanitarian consequences.


Role of international law more important for Palestine than ever

The role of international law in pronouncing on the question of Palestine will become even more momentous in 2025. After the signature rulings by the ICJ and the ICC in 2024, we are likely to see a growing movement to insist upon a rights-based approach to peacemaking in Palestine, replacing the discredited (but still very much alive) realpolitik approach of the Oslo process.

The momentum created by the recent genocide reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch will continue to echo through UN corridors and foreign ministries. But there are also headwinds: Republicans in the US Senate are determined to sanction the ICC for issuing the arrest warrant against Netanyahu, meaning that the viability of the court will require a stout defense by the 124 members of the Rome Statute, particularly from Europe.

As we learned from the past year, there will almost certainly be unexpected surprises in 2025. And while there will continue to be dark times for the Palestinians in the year ahead, the war in Gaza has also sparked a global movement of solidarity – particularly among the young – that will continue to inspire courageous thinking and bold acts. Its lasting impact should never be underestimated.

Michael Lynk he author is a professor emeritus of law at Western University, London, Ontario, Canada. He served as the 7th United Nations special rapporteur for human rights in the occupied Palestinian territory between 2016 and 2022. Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu’s editorial policy.

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‘In Gaza One Child is Killed Every Hour’ – Lazzarini

UNRWA Commissioner-General Phillippe Lazzarini declared that one child is killed every hour in Gaza in the Israeli occupation genocide continuing for 14 months.

Lazzarini stated, in a post on X, that there is no justification for killing children, adding that children who survive physically and emotionally suffer. He added that Gaza’s children are losing their lives, future, and hope in this brutal war.

He saud these children are not just numbers These are lives cut short. Killing children cannot be justified. Those who survive are scarred physically and emotionally. Deprived of learning, boys and girls in Gaza sift through the rubble. The clock is ticking for these children. They are losing their lives, their futures & mostly their hope.

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‘Gaza is Today a Graveyard’

Hunger, dire living conditions made worse by heavy winter rains and ongoing hostilities continue to endanger people’s lives in Gaza, which has become “a graveyard”, UN humanitarians warned Friday. 

The world is not seeing what’s going on with these people, it’s impossible for families to shelter in these conditions,” said Louise Wateridge, from the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).

Speaking from Nuseirat in central Gaza after heavy winter rains overnight and into Friday morning, the  UNRWA Senior Emergency Officer insisted that “an entire society here is now a graveyard…Over two million people are trapped. They cannot escape. And people continue to have basic needs deprived and it just feels like every path here that you could possibly take is leading to death.”

Echoing that warning, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) highlighted widespread and dangerous malnutrition levels in the enclave, where more than 96 per cent of women and children in Gaza “cannot meet their basic nutritional needs,” said Rosalia Bollen, Children’s Fund (UNICEF) communication specialist.

Speaking from Amman, Ms. Bollen noted that the most northerly part of Gaza has been under a near total siege for 75 days. This has largely prevented humanitarian assistance from reaching youngsters in need there “for more than 10 weeks”, she said.

“The suffering is not just physical, it is also psychological…Children are cold, they’re wet, they’re barefoot; I see many children who still wear summer clothes and with cooking gas gone, there’s also lots of children I see scavenging through piles of garbage looking for plastic they can burn.”

With more heavy rain expected on Friday evening, UNRWA’s Ms. Wateridge emphasized the critical need to get aid into the enclave to support Gazans who have been uprooted multiple times by Israeli bombardment and who have little to protect themselves from the elements.

“It’s impossible for families to shelter in these conditions,” Ms. Wateridge insisted. “Most people are living under fabric, they don’t even have waterproof structures and 69 per cent of the buildings here have been damaged or destroyed. There’s absolutely nowhere for people to shelter from these elements.”

Multiple and continuing aid obstacles imposed by the Israeli authorities have meant that humanitarians have had to prioritize food over shelter, leaving Gazans desperate and at risk from food stampedes.

“The certainty of winter has been the only thing that the United Nations has been able to plan for,” Ms. Wateridge maintained. “And yet we have still not yet been facilitated to bring in enough shelter supplies for people, because we have had to prioritize food. Women have been crushed to death waiting for a piece of bread.”

On Thursday, the UN aid coordination office, OCHA, reported that the Israeli authorities had “denied another UN request to reach besieged areas of North Gaza governorate with food and water. As a result, Palestinians in Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahiya and parts of Jabalya remain cut off from the essential assistance they need to survive.”

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Gaza: Life in a Death Trap – An MSF Report

  • A new report from MSF highlights how repeated Israeli military attacks on civilians in Gaza, and the systematic denial of humanitarian assistance are destroying the conditions of life.
  • Our teams are seeing clear signs of ethnic cleansing as Palestinians are forcibly displaced, trapped, and bombed.
  • The health care system lies in ruins and medical staff – including MSF’s – have been detained or killed.
  • We call for an immediate ceasefire and for states to leverage their influence to alleviate the suffering of people and enable a massive scale-up of aid in Gaza.

Repeated Israeli military attacks on Palestinian civilians over the last 14 months, the dismantling of the health care system and other essential infrastructure, the suffocating siege, and the systematic denial of humanitarian assistance are destroying the conditions of life in Gaza, Palestine, according to a new Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reportGaza: Life in a death trap. MSF is urgently calling on all parties, once again, for an immediate ceasefire to save lives and enable the flow of humanitarian aid. Israel must stop its targeted and indiscriminate attacks against civilians, and its allies must act without delay to protect the lives of Palestinians and uphold the rules of war.

“People in Gaza are struggling to survive apocalyptic conditions, but nowhere is safe, no one is spared, and there is no exit from this shattered enclave,” says Christopher Lockyear, MSF secretary general, who visited Gaza earlier this year.

Brutal War

“The recent military offensive in the north is a stark illustration of the brutal war the Israeli forces are waging on Gaza, and we are seeing clear signs of ethnic cleansing as Palestinians are forcibly displaced, trapped, and bombed,” says Lockyear. “What our medical teams have witnessed on the ground throughout this conflict is consistent with the descriptions provided by an increasing number of legal experts and organisations concluding that genocide is taking place in Gaza.”

“While we don’t have legal authority to establish intentionality, the signs of ethnic cleansing and the ongoing devastation – including mass killings, severe physical and mental health injuries, forced displacement, and impossible conditions of life for Palestinians under siege and bombardment – are undeniable,” Lockyear adds.

In response to the horrific attacks carried out by Hamas and other armed groups in Israel on 7 October 2023 – in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 people were taken hostage – Israeli forces are crushing the entire population of Gaza. Israel’s all-out war on Gaza has reportedly killed more than 45,000 people, according to the Ministry of Health, including eight MSF colleagues. The number of excess deaths related to the war is likely much higher due to the impacts of a collapsed health care system, disease outbreaks, and severely limited access to food, water, and shelter. The United Nations estimated earlier this year that more than 10,000 bodies remained buried under the rubble.

Denied

Israeli forces have on numerous occasions prevented essential items such as food, water, and medical supplies from entering the Strip, as well as blocked, denied, and delayed humanitarian assistance, as documented in the report. Some 1.9 million people—90 percent of the entire population of the Strip—have been forcibly displaced, many forced to move multiple times.

Fewer than half of Gaza’s 36 hospitals are even partially functional, and the health care system lies in ruins. During the one-year period covered by the report – from October 2023 to October 2024 – MSF staff alone have endured 41 attacks and violent incidents, including airstrikes, shelling, and violent incursions in health facilities; direct fire on our shelters and convoys; and arbitrary detention of colleagues by Israeli forces. MSF medical personnel and patients have been forced to evacuate hospitals and health facilities on 17 separate occasions, often literally running for their lives. Warring parties have conducted hostilities near medical facilities, endangering patients, caretakers, and medical staff.

Meanwhile, Palestinians’ physical and mental health injuries are overwhelming, and the needs continue to grow. MSF-supported facilities have carried out at least 27,500 consultations for violence and 7,500 surgical interventions. People are suffering from war wounds as well as chronic diseases, made worse when they cannot get access to essential health care services and medicines. Israel’s forced displacement has pushed people into unbearable and unhygienic living conditions where diseases can spread rapidly.

Worsening Health

As a result, MSF teams are treating high numbers of people for illnesses like skin diseases, respiratory infections, and diarrhoea – all of which are expected to increase as winter temperatures drop. Children are missing out on crucial immunisations, leaving them vulnerable to diseases like measles and polio. MSF has observed an increase in the number of malnutrition cases, however it is impossible to carry out a full malnutrition screening in Gaza due to widespread insecurity and the lack of proper deconfliction measures.

As medical care options dwindle in Gaza, Israel has made it even more difficult for people to be medically evacuated. Between the closure of the Rafah crossing in early May 2024 and September 2024, Israeli authorities have only authorised the evacuations of 229 patients—which amounts to 1.6 percent of those who needed it at that time. This is a drop in the ocean of needs.

The situation in northern Gaza is especially dire following Israel’s recent scorched earth military offensive that has depopulated large areas and reportedly killed almost 2,000 people. The northern part of the Strip, particularly Jabalia camp, has been besieged again by Israeli forces since 6 October 2024.

Israeli authorities have dramatically reduced the quantity of essential aid authorised to enter the north. In October 2024, the amount of supplies reaching the whole Gaza Strip hit its lowest point since the war escalated in October 2023: a daily average of 37 humanitarian trucks entered in October 2024, well below the 500 humanitarian trucks entering before 7 October 2023.

Mass Destruction

“For more than a year, our medical staff in Gaza have witnessed a relentless campaign by the Israeli forces marked by massive destruction, devastation, and dehumanisation,” says Lockyear. “Palestinians have been killed in their homes and in hospital beds.”

“They have been forcibly displaced time and time again to areas that are not safe or healthy,” says Lockyear. “People cannot find even the most basic necessities like food, clean water, medicines, and soap amid a punishing siege and blockade.”

MSF calls on states, particularly Israel’s closest allies, to end their unconditional support for Israel and fulfil their obligation to prevent genocide in Gaza. Nearly a year ago, on 26 January, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Israel to take “immediate and effective measures to enable the provision of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance to address the adverse conditions of life faced by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.” Israel has taken no meaningful action to comply with the court order. Instead, Israeli authorities continue to actively block MSF and other humanitarian organisations from providing lifesaving assistance to people trapped under siege and bombardment.

States must leverage their influence to alleviate the suffering of people and enable a massive scale-up of humanitarian assistance across the Gaza Strip. As the occupying power, Israeli authorities are responsible for ensuring the rapid, unimpeded, and safe delivery of humanitarian aid at the level sufficient to address people’s needs. Instead, Israel’s blockade and continued obstruction of aid have made it close to impossible for people in Gaza to access essential goods, including fuel, food, water, and medicines. At the same time, Israel has decided to effectively ban the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which is the largest provider of aid, health care, and other vital services for Palestinians.

Sustained ceasefire

MSF repeats our call for an immediate and sustained ceasefire. The total destruction of Palestinian life in Gaza must stop. MSF is also calling for immediate and safe access to northern Gaza, to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid and medical supplies to hospitals. While MSF continues to provide lifesaving care in central and southern Gaza, we call on Israel to end its siege on the territory and open vital land borders, including the Rafah crossing, to enable a massive scale-up of humanitarian and medical aid.

The MSF report notes that even if the Israeli military offensive on Gaza ended today, its long-term impacts would be unprecedented, given the scale of the destruction and the extraordinary challenges of providing health care across the Strip. A staggering number of war-wounded people are at risk of infection, amputation, and permanent disability, and many will require years of rehabilitative care. The cumulative physical toll and mental trauma caused by the extreme violence, loss of family members and homes, repeated forced displacement, and inhumane living conditions will scar generations.

Reliefweb

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The ongoing Israeli assault on Gaza has caused catastrophic harm to Gaza’s children, with over 1,000 losing limbs; an average of 10 amputations daily, according to UNICEF and Save the Children.

The World Health Organization reported 26,140 severe injuries needing rehabilitation, including 3,100-4,050 amputations, mostly lower limbs.

The UNRWA Commissioner-General, Philippe Lazzarini, confirmed that Gaza now has the highest number of child amputees globally, with many undergoing surgeries without anesthesia due to the healthcare collapse.

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