Don’t Forget The West Bank Slaughter!

By Imran Khalid

Amid the ongoing violence and devastation in Gaza, much of the world has turned a blind eye to the equally volatile but less overt conflict simmering in the West Bank. While not as brutally visible as Gaza’s plight, the situation in the West Bank is equally dangerous, threatening to ignite unrest that could destabilize the Palestinian Authority and fuel ethnic cleansing.

Israel has steadily expanded settlements, demolished homes, and seized large swaths of land, targeting civilians in the process. Yet, global attention remains fixated on Gaza and Israel’s escalating war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is as if the world has forgotten that just a year ago, many feared the West Bank, not Gaza, would become the primary battleground between Israelis and Palestinians. Over the past two decades, the nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has diverged significantly between Gaza and the West Bank. After Israel’s 2005 unilateral disengagement from Gaza, the region was left without Jewish settlers, creating a different kind of friction compared to the West Bank. [1]


Settlements are expanding day by day

On March 22, Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced the largest West Bank land seizure since 1993, setting a new course for Israeli settlement policy [2]. The move by Smotrich to declare 800 hectares in the Jordan Valley as state land paves the way for further development of settlements in this area sharing some 50 kilometers with Jordan.

For the Palestinians, who distrust such moves, seeing them as serious threats to the creation of an independent Palestinian state — this feels like a knife in their back. It is the latest land grab that Palestinians see as a last step before creating an independent and contiguous state. Settlement expansion — which set a record last year, according to Israeli monitoring group Peace Now — has cast doubts over the feasibility of a two-state solution. The largest threat to the long term stability of the land is that, with each designation of land as state property, the probability of having peace shrinks. The ongoing expansion of settlements, land confiscation, and rising settler violence — often carried out with impunity — only compound the difficulties. In some cases, this is further exacerbated by the incident in which the Israeli army is providing either direct or tacit support.

The Palestinian Authority’s Ministry of Health has stated that 716 Palestinians have died in the West Bank from Israeli military and settler violence since Oct. 7, including 160 children. Today, more than 5,750 have been wounded and over 10,000 detained in siege [3]. Nearly all arrests take place without going through a proper legal process, with the detainees imprisoned under Israel’s “administrative arrest” system – a method that bypasses international standards and in many cases denies those held the right to see either an attorney or even forthright details of the charges against them.

The two-state solution is being destroyed by Israel

The Israeli government is being accused more and more of implementing an annexation plan in the West Bank. The ramifications of this should alarm all nations that have historically supported a two-state solution, as verbal assurances and well wishes do little to mitigate the reality that Israeli security forces now operate at will in Area A — sovereign Palestinian Authority territory under the Oslo Accords [4].

Adding to this escalating tension are the inflammatory statements from Israeli officials. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz over the weekend compared the military operations in Jenin and Tulkarm to those in Gaza, saying that we are at “war in every sense.” [5] His proposal of a similar evacuation process along the frontier where Palestinian civilians could be temporarily moved will only serve to add further fuel to the fire in an already volatile region.

Despite domestic political turmoil, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has artfully dodged blame as violence in Gaza and the West Bank rumbles on. He has practically dismissed calls for a two-state solution and openly defied the International Court of Justice. Netanyahu refuses to yield, a position that has crippled the fragile peacekeeping efforts in Gaza and aggravated fears of renewed violence in the West Bank. Netanyahu has now many excuses that could provide convenient cover for changes aimed at further entrenching Israeli control over the region.

The fate of the major part of the West Bank is crucial; without it, any prospective two-state solution will be dashed. Within Netanyahu’s ruling coalition are elements who seem intent on this very outcome, exerting considerable influence over the prime minister. In this context, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz’s inflammatory rhetoric about the West Bank is more than just careless language — it may be a deliberate signal of the government’s intentions. As Netanyahu’s administration edges closer to what appears to be a calculated annexation strategy, the international community should question whether this is not only a consequence of policy but its very purpose.

[1] https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-palestine-gaza-hamas-explained-israels-2005-gaza-disengagement-plan-and-full-siege-order-4466132

[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/22/israel-seizes-800-hectares-of-palestinian-land-in-occupied-west-bank

[3] https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/humanitarian-situation-update-204-west-bank

[4] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240326-israel-s-largest-land-seizure-since-oslo-accords-deals-fresh-blow-to-palestinian-statehood

[5] https://www.timesofisrael.com/katz-slams-borrell-for-saying-he-called-for-displacement-of-west-bank-palestinians/

This opinion is reprinted from the Anadolu news agency.

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Hormuz: Mines, Strategy or Business?

By Ismail Al Sharif

The US thought that assassinating senior Iranian leaders would bring down the regime, but this did not happen.

Iran’s inability to match American military and technological superiority led it to adopt a number of strategies, most notably what is known in the military literature as the Mosaic Defense Doctrine. This doctrine is based on dismantling its military central command into small, independent units, each operating autonomously and making its own decisions without consulting the higher command.

From Day 1 of the war, Iran adopted this approach. However, the lack of coordination and the disintegration of the military hierarchy led to chaos and confusion which affected the management of its operations. The situation became contradictory; the politicians were declaring one thing and military commanders acting in a completely different manner and direction.

This was reflected on the ground through extremely dangerous behavior. Military units, using small boats, indiscriminately laid naval mines to deter enemy ships. However, the lack of coordination here backfired resulting in the Iranian navy officers losing their ability to pinpoint the coordinates of the mines they planted in the Hormuz Strait with no accurate maps or reliable records. Some of these mines may have been completely displaced by the currents of the sea. This was further complicated by the fact that these mines were not primitive but far from it; they were sophisticated and able to detect sound and pressure, and thus able to track the passage of large ships and submarines, and detonate automatically upon approach.

However, mine removal is not easy task, as history shows. Even today, news reports continue to surface of mines in various parts of the Kingdom, half a century after the last war. Indeed, mines from World War II are still being discovered on land and at sea.

Even with Britain’s pledge to remove mines after the war, and despite possessing the latest specialized technologies in this field, the task remains arduous, protracted, and uncertain. The specter of a sudden explosion looms, reminding us that the danger of mines is not easily eliminated.

But the decisive factor in weakening navigation in the Hormuz Strait is not primarily military, but rather material. Commercial ships are massive investments, with some vessels valued at around $150 million and their cargoes potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, a single mine explosion can cause catastrophic losses to both the ship and its cargo. Consequently, no ship sails without insurance; ports, banks, and shipping companies refuse to deal with uninsured vessels, and without insurance, global shipping grinds to a halt.

Herein lies the real surprise: the fate of the Strait is no longer dependent on Iran’s pronouncements regarding its opening or closure, but has effectively fallen into the hands of insurance companies. With the escalating risks, insurance costs have skyrocketed; “war risk” premiums have jumped from approximately 0.25% of the ship’s value to nearly 1% or more, exceeding a massive $1 million per voyage. And it doesnt stop there; seven major insurance companies announced their complete withdrawal, issuing notices of coverage cancellation just within just 72 hours.

And here comes the decisive turning point: Once the insurance coverage is lost, maritime traffic ground to a halt. During this 39-war, ships have effectively ceased sailing with the number of vessels transiting the Strait plummeting by more than 80%. Around 150 oil tankers remain anchored offshore, and major shipping companies suspended their operations, as if this vital artery of global trade had been frozen by a financial, rather than a military decision.

The US government attempted to provide alternative insurance coverage, but this effort failed and US President Trump’s pronouncements regarding mine removal were inconsistent with the reality.

The issue of reopening the Strait has once again become a prominent topic, but the deeper truth is that its fate is no longer determined by political statements or military actions, but rather by the decisions of insurance experts. Even if the war were to end immediately, ships would not resume sailing right away. Insurance companies need time to reassess the level of risk, and they base their decisions not on political logic, but on cold, hard numbers and rigorous data.

This article was originally published in Arabic in Addustour daily newspaper and republished in English in crossfirearabia.com.

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Analysis: Middle East in Iranian Eyes

CROSSFIREARABIA – During the Israeli Genocide on Gaza Benjamin Netanyahu used to stand up and say with a smirk: ‘We are changing the face of the Middle East’.

Upbeat about murdering the women and children of Gaza from the late 2023 onwards, he was talking about the further normalization of the Arab world as established by the Abraham Accords, establish an economic order under Israel’s hegemony and end Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis while clipping the wings of Iran.

Of course, Netanyahu’s face soon changed, albeit two-and-a-half years later, when Iran and Hezbollah were forced into a war generated by Israel and the USA on 29 February, 2026. While Iran got a battering, in the next 39 days, US ships and military bases in the Gulf and Jordan received such a hammering that soon forced US President Donald Trump to plead for a ceasefire.

In this war, Israel received a great shock, being attacked literally on an hourly and daily basis with its buildings, military basis and infrastructure taking directs hits while its millions of people living in underground shelters around-the-clock. 

To use a metaphor Tel Aviv’s nose was being rubbed in the sand in a way that has never been imagined by Netanyahu nor his ilk of extremist right wing fascist politicians who started calling for the expulsion of Gaza Palestinians from their homeland ever since the Israeli genocide on them since 7 October, 2023. 

Today’s Netanyahu’s vision of a new Middle East has been drastically changed, thrown in his face in fact! Iran’s political stances and its missiles have changed things around. The US and Israel were not able to change the current Iranian government in Iran despite killing the country’s spiritual leader Ali Khameini, have not ended the country’s nuclear program nor ended its ballistic missiles. 

So what is Netanyahu talking about? Yes, today there is clearly a new Middle East emerging but it is not according to Netanyahu’s eyes nor his wishful thinking. If anybody should be ‘celebrating’ it is clearly Iran, it’s government, revolutionary guard, its Generals, officers and soldiers who are very probably changing the face of the Middle East and may even be setting the map of how the region should look like in form from now on. 

From day one of the war, Trump started running scared despite his outlandish mutterings! He came to realize quickly that Netanyahu and the Mossad pushed him against Iran, convincing him it would be an easy fight and the government there would fall like a pack of cards. Trump since, started kicking himself as he finally fell to Netanyahu’s squinted prism to go after that country. Netanyahu kept pushing for this wild step since the 1990s through previous US presidents from Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

But they did not listen to him however, Trump fell into the trap and maybe this is why he is now privately kicking himself because he basically sent the globe into an economic tailspin and soaring exorbitant oil prices, a potentially deep recession and financial chaos.

In this war Netanyahu may have shot himself in the foot. His alliance with the USA  juxtaposed by Hezbollah whose fighters laid dormant since November 2024 when it stopped firing at Tel Aviv was a big surprise to the latter. Israel had previously thought that Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire out of weakness and thus their entry into military action was unexpected. Hezbollah kept the military pressure on for six more days after Washington signed off with Iran and beating the Israeli army into submission.

On day 46 Trump intervened calling on the Israeli army to stop fighting Hezbollah. He had ulterior motive, he wanted to extract a normalization agreement between the Lebanese government and Israel; their ambassadors had just started meeting in Washington at the invitation of the US State Department in an upbeat atmosphere and inline for a final agreement to establish an accord between Tel Aviv and Beirut alongside the ones signed between Israel and four Arab states, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco starting September 2020. 

Thus a normalization agreement would be a feather in Trump’s cap, a sort of prestige move for the US president. But his pressure may have been seen as a life-saving formula. Trump was saving Israel from Netanyahu’s insistence that his army to keep fighting in southern Lebanon. Its fight has already cost Israel at least 13 soldiers who were killed, more than 500 injured and more than 100 topnotch Merkava tanks destroyed. Israeli towns and cities were being hammered from the north.

Israel was being beaten from the north. Its towns, cities and military bases again were wide-open to incoming rockets from Lebanon and were not being deflected. It was a war that had to be stopped. This time Trump insisted. If a ceasefire with Iran was going to stick, then Netanyahu had to be forced to make his soldiers stop their fight in Lebanon. 

Thus for the time being Netanyahu’s hand lie in check. Yet in the long run his dream for a new Middle East with Israel playing a central part in it may have been halted. After all, no Gulf or even Arab states now would think of normalizing with Israel despite the fact that Lebanon is being forced into it, but even for then its early days.

Netanyahu can kiss goodbye his long-life attempt to sign a normalization accord with Saudi Arabia for instance, a kingdom which is seen as a “major puller” in the Arab and Muslim world. It has already said that normalization is off the table with Israel. The Gulf has been disappointed in this war because it showed that America were not able to protect them from Iranian missiles that targeted their infrastructure as well the US military bases strewn across the region.

Netanyahu has lost on the economic level as well. His country stands economically devastated, army in ruins as admitted to by the Israeli chief of staff Eyal Zamir, and the dream of opening an ‘economic Middle East’ is definitely dashed for the time being.

America, as Trump knows, is left to pick up the pieces of a tattered world caused by war any choas in a region that is vital to the global system.

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