‘Creeping Colonization’ – An Israeli Blueprint

By Najla M. Shahwan

The Israeli government has initiated a significant expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem , and while 2025 was a year of settlement expansion, 2026 is intended to be a year of “action on the ground” focusing on accelerating construction, retroactively legalizing outposts, and deepening control in strategically sensitive areas.

New construction projects, such as bypass roads and barriers, are actively slicing through the West Bank, creating disconnected “islands” of Palestinian areas and facilitating the expansion of settlements.

This strategy, heavily driven by Israeli far-right coalition members, aims to establish, legalize, and expand numerous settlements and outposts, effectively creating “de facto annexation”.

On his part, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced a plan to allocate 2.7 billion shekels in the 2026 state budget to establish 17 new colonies in the West Bank over the next five years.

Plans for 22 new settlements in the West Bank were approved in early 2026, building upon a record number of approvals in 2025, which totaled 41 new settlements.

Israel has moved to start construction on the contentious E1 project, with a tender for 3,401 homes posted in late 2025/ early 2026.

This project aims to connect Maale Adumim settlement with East Jerusalem, which analysts warn will divide the West Bank in two and block the contiguity of a future Palestinian state.

Plans are also advancing for a major new 9,000-unit settlement project in East Jerusalem, at the site of the former Atarot/ Qalandiya airport.

Besides, a new settlement named Mishmar Yehuda (or Givat Adumim) was recently approved, located near Kedar and Ma’ale Adumim.

Reports from May 2025 and January 2026 indicate a surge in the legalization of previously unauthorized settler outposts, transforming them into permanent, legal settlements under Israeli law.

Following the repeal of the 2005 Disengagement Law, plans are underway to rebuild and expand settlements in the northern West Bank, such as Homesh and Sa-Nur.

Settlement activity is heavily concentrated in the East Jerusalem area, the northern West Bank, and the Jordan Valley to sever Palestinian territorial continuity.

Settlement expansion has been accompanied by increased settler violence and attacks, with over 1,800 incidents documented in 2025, according to the UN.

Settlers have been involved in the killings of Palestinians, including children, and have caused thousands of injuries through physical assaults, shootings, and arson.

In the first weeks of 2026, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) recorded at least 55 settler attacks causing injury or property damage and injuring 30 Palestinians. These attacks, often targeted water systems and schools, have directly led to the displacement of over 100 Palestinian Bedouin and herding households.

In the Jericho area community of Ras ‘Ein al ‘Auja, at least 77 households began dismantling their homes following intensified nighttime settler attacks and threats.

Settler attacks have completely displaced 29 Palestinian communities since October 2023, more than one a month on average, UN data showed.

Attacks frequently target Palestinian property, including the burning of homes, destruction of vehicles , poisoning water sources , steeling livestock , devastating agricultural livelihoods and uprooting or chain sawing of olive trees.

Settler violence is a key driver of forced displacement, creating a coercive environment that has forced dozens of Palestinian communities to leave their homes.

Since October 7, 2023, thousands of Palestinians have been displaced due to settler attacks.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and various UN bodies have reported that the distinction between settler violence and state violence has become increasingly blurred, with settlers wearing uniforms and acting alongside or as part of the Israeli security forces.

The line between settler and state violence has blurred “to a vanishing point,” according to a 2025 UN report.

This is attributed to the involvement of settlers in official “settlement defense squads” and “regional defense battalions,” which are part of the Israeli army’s structure.

The UN has noted a high level of impunity for perpetrators, with very few investigations into settler attacks resulting in convictions.

The European Union, various international bodies, various nations, including the UK, Canada, and Germany, have urged Israel to halt these activities, citing that the settlements are obstacles to peace , illegal under international law and undermine the possibility of a two-state solution.

The UN human rights office has repeatedly called on Israeli authorities to protect Palestinians from these attacks, end the cycle of violence, and hold perpetrators accountable.

However as of January 2026, reports indicate that Israel is disregarding all condemnations and warnings and accelerating its actions in the occupied West Bank, shifting from a “slow creep” of control to a rapid expansion of settlements and infrastructure, which observers characterize as de facto annexation.

This, combined with increased settler violence and military actions, is profoundly altering the landscape of the West Bank.

This ongoing process, which was often referred to as “creeping annexation’’, and now some analysts call it “running annexation’’ aims to permanently incorporate the West Bank into Israel by creating irreversible, on-the-ground facts.

Najla M Shahwan contributed this article to the Jordan Times

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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‘This War is Not Hours’

By Dr Hasan Al Dajah

Events in the Middle East are accelerating, foreshadowing a comprehensive regional explosion. However, a deeper reading of the situation transcends the traditional narrative that attempts to portray the conflict as an “Arab-Iranian” or sectarian one that transcends borders. The reality emerging today from the rubble of burning military bases and oil facilities is clear: this war is not ours; it is a major strategic war led by Washington with direct Israeli planning, aimed at reshaping the region to serve absolute Western hegemony, even if the price is turning Arab capitals into arenas of destruction and settling scores in which we have no stake.

For years, the United States promoted the concept of “deterrence” and providing protection to allied countries in exchange for billions of dollars in arms deals and a massive military presence. However, Operation “True Promise 5” and the subsequent precise Iranian strikes have stripped away the fig leaf from these claims. Field reports indicate that US bases, once described as “impregnable fortresses,” have become vulnerable targets themselves, requiring protection. At Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, damage to the AN/FPS-132 early warning radar and the AN/TPY-2 facility resulted in a near-total paralysis of surveillance capabilities.

In Bahrain, home to the Fifth Fleet, the destruction of satellite communications stations led to a loss of centralized control over naval vessels. In Kuwait and the UAE, the casualties and the destruction of F-15 fighter jets revealed that advanced US technology was incapable of countering waves of drones and missiles that disrupted even civilian air traffic and struck vital facilities at Jebel Ali Port, reducing military installations and oil depots to ashes.

This resounding failure raises a fundamental question about the viability of relying on a “security umbrella” that has failed to protect its own perimeter and has become a security burden, attracting attacks rather than repelling them. This is no longer mere political analysis; it has become a public admission emanating from the corridors of Washington. What Senator Lindsey Graham recently revealed represents the pinnacle of terrifying candor. He confirmed that the true agenda is not about spreading “democracy” or protecting allies, but rather about embroiling the Gulf States as the military front and human cannon fodder in a direct confrontation with Iran. This is a prelude to seizing oil wells and managing the region’s wealth for Washington’s benefit, thus paying the price for the American presence, while simultaneously imposing full normalization and strangling China’s energy lifeline.

The United States’ recent attempt to seek refuge in French bases in the UAE, such as Al Dhafra Air Base and Camp de la Paix, is nothing more than a desperate effort to spread losses and hide behind the European umbrella after the deterioration of the original American bases. However, even these shared bases have not been immune to attack.

The strikes have proven that any facility supporting Western operations is a legitimate target in this zero-sum confrontation. The effects of this war extend beyond the military arena, striking at the very heart of daily life. The threat to the Strait of Hormuz has triggered seismic repercussions in global markets. The price of a barrel of oil jumped to around $116, an increase of more than $38, while gas prices in Europe rose by more than €25, and oil shipping costs soared by over 90 per cent, foreshadowing an uncontrollable wave of global inflation.

The United States, which today expresses its “displeasure” at Israel exceeding expectations in striking Iranian fuel depots, is not acting out of a desire for peace, but rather out of fear that the economic game will backfire on it and on oil markets, which cannot withstand the loss of Gulf supplies, especially given the 11 per cent increase in gasoline prices in America and the 70 per cent increase in jet fuel prices. What is happening in Jebel Ali, Manama, Doha, and Kuwait is not a struggle to defend Arab sovereignty, but rather a settling of scores between major powers that want to use Arab land as a chessboard.

The American bases that are groaning today under the weight of the strikes have proven to be a “paper tiger” when it comes to protecting allies, and that their presence is nothing but a magnet for crises that drains Arab capabilities for the benefit of foreign agendas that do not take into account Arab national security.

Arab capitals must realize, before it’s too late, that the “illusion of protection” has completely evaporated under the weight of missiles and drones. To be drawn into Israel’s desire to destroy the region, and to accommodate American ambitions to seize energy resources to finance its expansionist policies, is strategic suicide by any measure.

This raging war is not our war, and staying out of the inferno of this manufactured conflict is the only way to ensure that our wealth and the future of our generations do not become fuel for the schemes of Netanyahu, Trump, and the war profiteers behind them.

The time has come to seriously seek a self-reliant regional security system, one that originates from within the continent and is based on the shared interests of the region’s countries, far removed from foreign bases that today lack even the most basic military effectiveness and have become a strategic burden that itself needs protection after its defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed.

False American promises only increase our subservience and dependence on a modern colonial project that sees Arabs as nothing more than insignificant figures on its debt list, or mere cheap tools in its proxy wars. The true protection of homelands begins today with disengaging from these destructive agendas, and with the explicit acknowledgment that bases that have failed to protect their own walls and platforms will never be a shield for others.

Hasan Al-Dajah, a Professor of Strategic Studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University, is a columnist in the Jordan Times.

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The US General Who Swallowed His Own Truth

By Jassem Al-Azzawi

General Dan Kaine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, delivered a confidential warning to President Trump with the utmost candor—the kind of candor that democracies rely on and empires routinely ignore. He said: “We don’t have enough ammunition to win this war. It’s not going to be pretty.” This warning wasn’t born of cowardice; it was the last vestige of institutional integrity that still flickers within the halls of American military power.

Trump’s response was that of a circus clown, not a commander-in-chief. Through his “Truth Social” platform—that distorted mirror of American political life—he dismissed the warning with the arrogance of a street vendor, saying: “Oh, no, no, no. If we do it, we’ll win easily.” Thus, a sober assessment became mere publicity, and caution a lie.

But the biggest lie came later. When Kaine’s warning leaked, Trump not only rejected it but completely reversed it. With the confidence of a man who has never been held accountable for anything, he told the American public the general had said the exact opposite—that the United States had plenty of missiles, munitions, and everything else. “That’s not what he said at all,” Trump declared, putting words of false victory in the mouth of a man who had offered only warnings.

And General Cain remained silent

This silence is not just a footnote in this story; it is the story itself. By remaining silent, Cain allowed the American public to absorb the falsehood as truth. He did not say: “No, Mr. President, that’s not what I said.” He did not invoke his oath, nor the soldiers who would pay with their lives for the gap between political rhetoric and logistical reality. He chose the safety of silence over the danger of truth, and in doing so, he betrayed not only himself but the Republic. This is the rot at the heart of American militarism.

As historian Andrew Bacevich has long warned, the professional military has become more of an instrument of imperial ambition than a defender of democratic values, with senior officers more concerned with their next post than with the Constitution they swore to uphold. Kaine’s silence was not a mere slip of the tongue; it was a symptom of a deeper malaise.

The logistical picture Kaine described in private was not theoretical; the calculations were unforgiving.

Current stockpiles of interceptor missiles and precision munitions could not sustain a prolonged air campaign against a country three times the size of Iraq. The Wall Street Journal documented a “worrying gap” in U.S. missile stockpiles, noting that reserves were “far below” the requirements of intensive and sustained operations. Pentagon contractors were instructed to “double or even quadruple” production of Patriot, SM-6, and precision-strike missiles—a tacit admission that the arsenal built for Cold War scenarios is inadequate for the war being fought today.

Consider Gaza: Israel, the most heavily armed military power in the Middle East, with complete air and naval dominance, has turned a tiny coastal strip into a moon-like landscape of devastation over two and a half years, yet it has not broken Hamas. Gaza is only 37 kilometers long. Iran, on the other hand, is a nation of 90 million people, with mountainous terrain, strategic depth, fortified infrastructure, and a combat-hardened Revolutionary Guard. The idea that it will collapse under a few weeks of American airstrikes is not strategy; it is wishful thinking. “God help us if this continues, if it gets to four weeks,” Colonel Daniel Davis warned on the Deep Dive podcast. He was speaking in military terms, and the same prayer applies. Politically.

When Trump now raises the prospect of sending ground troops, he is not escalating from a position of strength, but rather improvising from a position of denial. Admitting that air power and missiles alone cannot achieve the political objective is an admission that the original objective was never honestly assessed. This is the pattern of American wars at the end of an empire: Glittering promises, disastrous calculations, and then a grim and horrific reckoning paid in blood by those who had no seat at the table where the lies were told.


The costs are already piling up—not just in the currency of munitions and riches, but in the currency that empires always ultimately spend and regret most: credibility. America’s word, already devalued by two decades of contrived justifications for war, is getting cheaper by the day.

Democracies can tolerate miscalculations, and they can tolerate bad presidents, but what they cannot long tolerate is the institutionalization of a culture where the truth is whispered behind closed doors and swallowed whole in front of cameras. When the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff allows his words to be weaponized for propaganda — when the man in charge of counting missiles refuses to correct a president who pretends they are plentiful — something far greater than military credibility collapses.

What is crumbling is the social contract between the governed and those who send them to their deaths.

Caine’s silence was not cautious; it was complicity. And in an imperial machine suffering from a shortage of ammunition and a shortage of truth, complicity is the only resource that seems inexhaustible, because when the missiles finally run out, slogans won’t replace them.

Reality will.

Al-Azzawi is an Iraqi writer who contributed this piece to Al Rai Al Youm which was translated and appeared in crossfire.com

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