Fragmented Arab Nation May Yet Rise!

Dr. Saad Naji Jawad

The Arab nation has never lost its compass as it is doing so these days. It has never gone through such a state of disintegration, despair and inability to do anything since the World War I, and be satisfied with everything that others are doing to it.

If we go back in history when Britain and France occupied the Arab nation and divided it in the way we see it now, we will find that the spirit of revolution, liberation, love of independence and rejection of direct and indirect colonialism remained glowing within its societies.

Many national movements succeeded in obtaining independence, even if it was nominal, and some liberation movements succeeded in revolting against colonialism and expelling it from their lands. Then the Arab countries that gained their independence stood by those that were still struggling for that goal. When some Arab governments stood by the tripartite aggression against Egypt, demonstrations filled the streets, and the popular tide succeeded in toppling some of those regimes.

The same thing happened after the outbreak of the Algerian revolution, where all the masses of the nation and its independent countries stood by until it succeeded in achieving complete independence from French colonialism.

After the Bandung Conference (Asian-African Solidarity Conference 1955), which was the nucleus of the Non-Aligned Movement (1961) in the shadow of the Cold War, the late Gamal Abdel Nasser succeeded in leading the nation to a position that was taken into account, and the bloc was able to force the two world powers to respect the point of view of the movement’s members and supported the independence of most Asian and African countries. Some Arab capitals, Cairo in particular, became the headquarters and refuge for all Asian and African liberation movements.

Alarm bells

Indeed, that stage set the alarm bells ringing in Western countries about the possibility of the Arab homeland becoming an influential force in the regional and international arenas with its wealth. It is no exaggeration to say the entity that Western countries created in Palestine, the heart of the Arab homeland, was the one that activated this bell and kept its voice constantly loud.

This entity felt that its existence, which passed with the approval and submission of the Arab regimes that were groaning under colonial rule, and its attempts to expand beyond the area granted to it by the United Nations in the partition resolution in 1947, became clearly threatened, especially after the emergence of national regimes that rejected its existence.

This feeling increased when Nasser’s Egypt, with Syrian support, adopted the armed Palestinian resistance in Gaza and the West Bank since the mid-1950s, and other Arab countries followed suit after the 1967 setback.

Hence the decision to work to stifle any Arab renaissance project that could stand in the way of Zionist ambitions with American-British-European support was made. This decision was translated into two wars, the first of which failed (Suez and the tripartite aggression of 1956), and the second succeeded greatly (June 1967).

This introduction should not make us overlook the fact that those who helped the Israeli-American-British plan succeed were the Arab regimes and governments, which despite the national intentions of some of them, failed to create democratic institutions and societies that stand behind the regimes and support them.

Isolated regimes

Rather, it can be said these regimes isolated themselves with their oppressive policies, which they naively justified as necessary to protect revolutions and national experiences from foreign conspiracies. This is why a schism occurred between the peoples and their rulers.

This gap widened when the majority of citizens in all Arab countries felt marginalized and had no say in what was happening.  They participated in wars against their will, were forced to suffer defeats against their will, and accepted agreements that had no interest for them or their future generations. Most of them found themselves, and still are, living below the poverty line, while their wealth went into the pockets of the corrupt and the rulers.

The same failure befell other leaders who possessed enormous wealth. Instead of harnessing this wealth to build an economic, industrial, cultural, and agricultural renaissance in all Arab countries, they put all this enormous potential in the service of the American-Zionist project that aims to dismantle the Arab homeland, believing that this project is the one that will protect them and keep them in power.

These parties spent hundreds of billions of dollars to support civil wars within the Arab homeland, at a time when a small percentage of this money would have been enough to create an economic, cultural, and social renaissance in all Arab countries.

What is happening in our Arab region today is a path that began in 2003, then moved to most Arab countries (under the name of the Arab Spring), and resulted in the destruction of Libya, Syria and Yemen, then moved after the Al-Aqsa Flood to Palestine, to Gaza, then Lebanon and last but not least in Syria, where Israel and the United States were able to achieve easy victories they did not deserve.

Terrified

This even included the right-wing axis that normalizes and satisfied with Israeli expansion, which was terrified by what is happening. The problem is that people’s memories are narrow, weak and sometimes non-existent. What is happening now in Syria in particular happened twice in Iraq in 2003 and after, and in 2014 after the invasion of the terrorist ISIS gangs.

The result of both operations was catastrophic by all standards.

However, there are those who still support what America and Israel are doing and seek their help and obey them. A not insignificant group, including this writer, believe that the basis of the current disaster is the failure to activate the principle of (unity of arenas) after the launch of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.

Perhaps there is no benefit to be gained from discussing such a topic with those who are driven by sectarian and racist fanaticism, or driven by narrow and limited interests and painful personal experiences (this is if we assume good intentions and the absence of suspicious connections), as all of these people cannot look at or discuss matters from the perspective of the supreme national interest.

Turkish ambitions

Perhaps one of the most difficult roles to explain to some is that played by Turkey, not only practically, but also in terms of its future intentions that harbor ill intentions for this nation, including talk in Istanbul and by official bodies about (the necessity of restoring Aleppo and then Mosul and annexing them to Turkey), then wrapping this up with honeyed words about (preserving the unity of Syrian territory).

Today, Turkish activity has extended to the Horn of Africa region, where it has succeeded in achieving an important historical reconciliation between Somalia and Ethiopia, a reconciliation that ultimately serves Addis Ababa and its policy, driven by Israel, in thirsting Egypt and depriving it of a large percentage of the Nile waters with the resulting major effects.

In other words, the destructive and fragmentation plan has begun to move to Egypt. Turkey has previously tried a strategy of destabilizing neighboring Arab countries, and that policy backfired, but it seems that it is not only the Arabs who are characterized by weak memories and failure to learn from experiences.

Yes, the Arab nation today lives on the edge of disaster, and it is threatened with fragmentation more than it is fragmented now, and what is more painful is that the occupying state, which was standing on the brink of a major defeat for itself and its expansionist settlement project, is today achieving, with American and Turkish support, and a cynical Russian, Iranian and official Arab position, a victory that it did not dream of.

It is not unlikely that after Trump comes to power, this will not only be strengthened, but new Arab countries will be forced to accept it, and it may even reach the point of forcing the International Criminal Court to withdraw the arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Galant, and the matter may extend to the International Court of Justice and prevent it from issuing a ruling on the genocide committed by the occupation in Gaza.

This bleak picture is only alleviated by the continuation of the resistance in Gaza despite everything that has happened and is happening, and the low state in which the occupying entity has fallen in the eyes of the world, especially the West, and the increasing boycott operations against it and its being considered a pariah and rogue regime.

The Arab nation has accustomed us to succeeding in difficult times in rising from the ashes and achieving victories despite all the setbacks. Perhaps such a thing now requires a period of time that is not short, but in the end this is what will happen at the hands of generations that have not rejected humiliation, subordination and the promotion of divisions.

And hope for this cannot be cut off no matter how long it takes. We have no choice but to take as an example of what was stated in the Holy Quran in the Battle of the Trench when the Muslims reached an unprecedented state of despair until the noble verse was revealed: In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful “Or do you think that you will enter Paradise while such [trial] has not yet come to you as it came to those who passed on before you? They were touched by poverty and hardship and were shaken until the Messenger and those who believed with him said, “When is the victory of Allah?” Unquestionably, the victory of Allah is near.”  God’s words are the truth.

The writer is an Iraqi academic who contributed this piece to Al Rai Al Youm

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Rehabilitating Iran?

By Dr Khairi Janbek

All eyes now are on the new game in the Middle East: The US-Iran negotiations. One would say the aim here is far more advanced than the Iranian nuclear programme when the agreement was torn up by US President Donald Trump himself who was more concerned with details which would eliminate all threats against Israel, and would that in all liklihood, transform the whole region.

It seems that in this early intense stage, the ambiance is for reaching an amicable agreement through the recognition that no matter of the outcome, there will be nothing divisive. Trump will continue creating crisis just for the sake of showing that he can control those crises, and act in the manner of the old Arabic adage, for neither the wolf to die nor the sheep to parish. While for the Iranians, they have everything to gain from a positive outcome to those negotiations.

Of course, the Iranian nuclear programme is an important component of these negotiations, and most often than not, at times Iran and at times its enemies, exaggerate the potential of the country to making nuclear weapons for political purposes.

Yet the fact remains that despite the possibility of Iran being still far from creating weapon-grade enrichment programme, if carried on unchecked, it is inevitable that at one point in the future it will have nuclear weapons. Consequently the fact remains, the onus is on Iran to prove credibly that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, and accept periodically, the checks of the international nuclear inspectors.

The other dimension is the relationship of Iran with its proxies in the region, which falls under the category of threats to Israel. Well, and under the circumstances, Iran has to decide the reasons for its continued alliances with its proxies – whether such alliances served their purpose, or have become a burden than an asset – or if it can maintain these alliances with definte no threat commitment Israel but with political clout in Arab world affairs, which incidentally may not seem such a bad idea for Trump.

After all eliminating the threat against Israel is the primary concern, while at the same time his rich Arab allies buy their protection from him, a protection which Iran cannot dare to test.

But what is in it for Iran to reach an accord with the United States? One would say plenty. For a start it’s reintegration back into the region. After all it kept claiming it’s nuclear programme, is in reality, a peaceful programme and Tehran never had the intention of enriching weapons grade uranium.

Well, and with an accord it can now easily prove, and then can start dealing with the issue of not being a threat to Israel by either dissociating itself from these proxies which have become costly to its image and/or work in their transformation to political, unarmed forces and parts of the political structures wherever they exist in the Arab region.

Essentially if the sanctions against Iran are lifted and its assets are no longer frozen, Iran will be able to assume a very strong position in the Middle East region based on its economic strength and its enormous trade potential. In fact, Trump knows that any military action he takes against the Iranian nuclear installations, and any possible response will not have a decisive result. Therefore, the most likely decisive result will be, a new Iran, big in the region as well as moreover, that will owe him a favour.

In the meantime , we are still at the very early stage to even try to guess, but we can safely assume, that no matter how those negotiations proceed, nothing tangible is likely to happen before the visit of President Trump to the Gulf region in May.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris, France

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Iran-US Talks in Muscat: Winners and Losers

EDITOR’S NOTE: This editorial, written by Abdul Bari Atwan, chief editor of the Arabic Al Rai Al Youm website, on Saturday, 12 April, relates to the first talks of the Tehran-Washington negotiations that started in Muscat, Oman relating to the Iran nuclear file.

Iran succeeded in scoring a major goal against the United States in the clash of wills that began today, Saturday, in the Omani capital, Muscat, by insisting that the negotiations be “indirect,” contrary to what its American adversary wants: Namely “direct” negotiations as announced by US President Donald Trump at the White House in his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, who was surprised by this shocking announcement.

The US delegation, led by Trump’s Advisor Steve Witkoff, is participating in these talks from a weak and defeated position, especially after the failure of the US plan to impose tariffs on more than 200 countries worldwide. America has become friendless, and even turned its friends into enemies, especially in Europe and Southeast Asia like South Korea and Japan.

Strategies of negotiations

Iran, represented in the negotiations by veteran Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the man who led the negotiations for the first nuclear agreement with the six major powers in 2015 and possesses extensive experience in the art and strategies of negotiation, did not submit to the “threats and intimidation” adopted by President Trump.

They imposed their conditions in full on their American opponents and insisted on limiting the negotiations to the nuclear issue, not addressing other issues such as missile and drone systems, and severing ties with the arms of the resistance in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. And they got what they wanted.

The one who called for a return to a diplomatic solution to the Iranian-American crisis and backed down from his threats of a devastating military strike was President Trump. This happened when he realized the threats of military strikes, coupled with the dispatch of three American aircraft carriers and squadrons of giant B-52 bombers, backfired.

These did not intimidate the Iranians, but prompted a response from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who declared a state of emergency in the Iranian military, placed giant missile platforms, advanced submarines, and ground and naval forces on high alert, and threatened to destroy all of the 10 military bases surrounding his country and housing 50,000 soldiers, close the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent Gulf oil exports to the entire world.

The Iranians do not trust President Trump, who tore up the nuclear agreement in 2018, and is well aware he has become an Israeli puppet. He also realizes that America, defeated in Ukraine, did not simply march to Moscow waving white flags, ready to sell Ukraine and its people to the Russians and surrender to all of its conditions, including the annexation of a fifth of Ukrainian territory to Russia, without consulting its European allies, whom it has become embroiled in this war.

When President Trump demands that the Muscat negotiations reach a quick agreement within two months, this is due to his bitter experience in the Vienna negotiations, which lasted a year-and-a-half and ended in failure due to Iran’s cunning use of the “yes, but” theory, without offering any concessions.

Globally hated…

We do not believe that this theory will be abandoned in the Muscat negotiations, especially since America, which is now globally hated and has lost all of its allies in the West and the East, has become weak, and is on the brink of bankruptcy due to the huge deficit in its annual general budget ($1.4 trillion) and its public debt that has reached more than $42 trillion.

What will encourage Iran to harden its position in these negotiations is China’s strong and defiant stance in the trade war against the United States. Its president, Xi Jinping, declared he will respond in kind to America and its president, and will fight this war to the end, no matter how costly the results.

He has decided to raise customs duties on American goods by a historic rate of more than 125 percent, and has given the green light to his allies in the BRICS group to declare war on the dollar and the global SWIFT financial system, through which America controls the global economy and financial movement.

Trump, wounded by the failure of his gamble to ignite a trade war, and the internal and global revolt against it, with the beginning of the decline in the value of the dollar and the escalation of the recession in the American economy as its first fruits, was forced to stop this war less than three days after its announcement under the cover of a three-month freeze on the application of customs duties.

Crushing military strike

Hence, his threats, i.e. Trump’s necessity of quickly to reach a nuclear agreement didn’t have any effect despite the threat of a crushing military strike. Iran’s respond to Trump forced him to make a major, unprecedented concessions to save face.

Iran, which has suffered significant losses in Lebanon, with the weakening of its powerful military arm in that country (Hezbollah), and in Syria with the fall of the President Assad’s regime, undertook rapid reviews internally and regionally, abandoning many of its policies pursued in recent years, after realizing that the knife is approaching its neck, and that the American-Israeli conspiracy does not only seek to destroy it and remove its military claws and fangs, but also to change the Islamic regime there.

The results of these reviews reflected in the transition from a phase of patience and long-suffering to a phase of confrontation in its military and political aspects, and the strengthening of its allied military arms, starting with the striking Yemen whose arm there is waging heroic wars not only against aircraft carriers and American warships in the Red and Arabian Seas, but also by intensifying ballistic missiles and drone bombardment of the occupied Palestinian interior in Jaffa, Haifa, and Eilat, accelerating the recovery process for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and finding other ways to deliver military supplies to it.

After the historic Syrian corridor was closed with the fall of the Assad regime, America became a farce in the first months of Trump’s rule. It’s no surprise that Iran and its allied proxies are among the biggest beneficiaries and gloaters. He who laughs last laughs loudest… and the days will tell!

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