US-Israel Set to Drag The World Into a Globa Crisis

By Abdel Bari Atwan

By bombing Iran’s Pars gas field, the world’s largest with missiles, and with a green light from President Donald Trump, the Israeli occupation state and its right-wing ruling clique is revealing a major, diabolical plan. Its goal is to drag the world into a massive economic crisis on all levels, starting with an energy crisis that may be even more dangerous than the Arab oil embargo of 1973, in solidarity with Egypt and Syria, leading to a wider global conflict.

This Israeli bombing of Iran’s South Pars gas field, which came after the third week of the war and the failure of the US-Israeli alliance to topple the Iranian regime, constitutes the most significant breach of red lines and will have very serious and dangerous consequences in this war. Gas prices have already risen by 36 percent today, while the price of a barrel of oil has reached $118 so far. These figures may triple, if not more, if Iran retaliates by bombing energy facilities in the Gulf, especially in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. It is an option that is not out of the question, given the threats issued by the new leadership, which states that the “oil and gas sites in neighboring countries have become direct and legitimate targets after the bombing of the South Pars field.”

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By taking this step—bombing the South Pars gas field facilities—the Israeli army has shifted the conflict from a realm of threatening maritime routes, primarily the Strait of Hormuz, to targeting production infrastructure. This is a very dangerous shift if it escalates and will lead to an expansion of the scope of this war and its objectives and reflects the despair and frustration Israel is experiencing due to its failure to achieve its objectives in waging this war, and rallying the western world behind Trump’s leadership whilst trapping it in the Iranian snare, and seeking to eliminate the existential threat to its survival, namely Iran and the resistance factions it supports.

Iran managed this war with unprecedented political and military acumen. The developments of the first three weeks demonstrated that it was well-prepared for all eventualities according to a well-devised plan. The most prominent evidence of this was its deception of the occupying state and its generals when it used older-generation missiles to absorb and deplete Israel’s air defenses. Then, it delivered the decisive blow by bombarding major occupied Palestinian cities with advanced, hypersonic cluster missiles, turning Tel Aviv, Haifa, Acre, and Safed into ghost towns.

***

The “decapitation” theory, which Israel used as a successful formula for regime change and collapse, exemplified by the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was thwarted by Iranian ingenuity, yielding the opposite results. The Iranian regime emerged stronger than before the assassination war, now led by a young figurehead, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader. His first decree was to refuse negotiations with the US to halt the killings unless it fully submitted to Iranian demands, including surrender, a cessation of hostilities, and the payment of reparations.

The lack of response from NATO, and indeed from not a single country Trump appealed to for intervention and the deployment of warships to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz—from China to Australia—underscores his and his Israeli allies’ early defeat in this war and signals the beginning of the countdown to his removal from power, and perhaps even his trial as a war criminal. Time will tell.

This op/ed by the the Chief Editor of Al Rai Al Youm was translated from Arabic and reprinted in crossfirearabia.com.

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Hormuz: End of an Era of Martime Dominance

CrossFireArabia
March 16, 2026

By Ismail Al-Sharif

“Nations that believe themselves to be eternal are often the first to be surprised by history.” – Charles de Gaulle

In May 1949, the Chinese Civil War was nearing its conclusion in favor of the Communists under Mao Zedong. At that time, Great Britain, the world’s most powerful nation, maintained warships on the Yangtze River to protect its citizens and commercial interests in cities like Shanghai and Nanjing. Among these ships was the British frigate HMS Amethyst.

On April 20, 1949, the frigate sailed up the Yangtze River toward Nanjing, but the Communist forces, who controlled the northern bank of the river, considered the ship’s presence a foreign intervention in the war. Suddenly, Chinese artillery began bombarding the ship, inflicting direct hits. Its captain and several crew members were killed, and its navigation system was disabled before it finally ran aground in the mud near the shore.

Other British ships attempted to come to its aid, but they too were fired upon by Chinese artillery and forced to retreat. The ship remained trapped for four months under fire from communist forces, amidst tense negotiations between Great Britain and the communist leadership.

On the night of July 30, 1949, the ship’s new captain, John Cairns, decided to execute a daring plan. He waited for a merchant ship to pass, then moved behind it in the darkness, taking advantage of its cover. His plan succeeded; the ship managed to escape and reach open waters.

This incident is considered a symbol of the end of the era of British imperial dominance and a harbinger of its decline. Many historians cite it as the moment when the great powers realized that the world had changed and that the balance of power was no longer what it once was. This story is repeating itself today, but it’s not about a single ship; it extends to the American destroyers that patrol our seas.

Half a century ago, missile production was prohibitively expensive, and the technology for precise guidance systems was unavailable. Therefore, the American navy was designed according to the realities of that era. Then came the 21st century, when electronic technology and computers became accessible to everyone, and precision guidance systems became readily available, whether in a sophisticated missile or a simple drone.

The Ukrainian war revealed that the era of tanks is over; they became easy targets for drones that cost only a few thousand dollars each. Similarly, the Iranian war reveals that warships at sea are like tanks on land: Easy targets for drones and missiles.

Consider the crown jewel of the American navy, the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, which resembles a floating city with an area of approximately 18,900 square meters. It is accompanied by other highly advanced destroyers possessing immense destructive power. However, no destroyer carries an equal number of interceptor missiles and drones to those possessed by its adversaries.

This is why Iran continues to defy this presence and close the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario is reminiscent of the Houthis’ actions when a group from one of the world’s poorest countries challenged the world’s most powerful nations and managed to disrupt shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait last year.

Iran controls the northern coast of the Strait of Hormuz and possesses a diverse arsenal that includes land-based missiles, submarines, drones, fast attack craft, and sea mines. In contrast, US warships have only a limited number of defense systems compared to the size of Iran’s arsenal in this region.

Military strategists have formulated a simple equation called the “fire-off equation.” This equation posits that a ship’s survival depends less on its destructive power and more on the ratio of threats directed at it to the number of interceptor missiles it possesses to counter them. When Iran or the Houthis launch a salvo of 50 drones at a destroyer with a limited stockpile of interceptor missiles—a stockpile that cannot be replenished in combat—the objective is not necessarily to sink the ship directly, but rather to exhaust its defenses. Once the interceptor missiles are depleted, these destroyers are reduced to approximately 9000 tons of scrap metal adrift at sea.

In late 2023 and throughout 2024, the Houthis targeted ships in the Red Sea, placing the US Navy in a precarious position. Unable to forcibly reopen the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, commercial shipping was rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, a detour of approximately 19,000 kilometers. This added weeks to each voyage and incurred additional costs estimated at thousands of dollars. Thus, the most powerful navy in history found itself unable to secure the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

For 80 years, the global economy has been built on the assumption that US ships can keep shipping lanes open. However, recent conflicts demonstrate that this assumption is beginning to crumble. Naval power can still destroy the largest fleets on the high seas, but on coastlines and in narrow waterways, it appears less decisive.

It’s a story reminiscent of the British frigate HMS Amethyst; a moment when superpowers discover their power is no longer what it once was, and that the era of absolute dominance is drawing to a close.

This article by Ismail Al Sharif was originally written in Arabic for the Addustour daily and reprinted here in crossfirearabia.com

Analyses Uncategorized

How Will Trump Get Out of This War?

CrossFireArabia
March 14, 2026

By Ismail Al Sharif

“We are in an advanced position, and we will decide when the war will end,” said Kazem Gharibabadi, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister.

President Donald Trump, in coordination with the Zionist entity, is igniting a regional war with Iran which is an unprecedented event in the region. Analysis of the true motives behind this fateful decision vary. One school of thought believes the strategic objective lies in controlling Iranian oil wealth and containing growing Chinese influence. Another links this to the Epstein affair, based on claims of Zionist pressure threatening to expose him to sensitive information.

A third school believes that Trump is tied to political commitments made to Miriam Adelson, who generously funded his election campaign. Some go even further, alleging that Trump, known for his transactional negotiating style, received substantial financial compensation for engaging in this war. In a related context however, recent reports indicate that Trump himself has blamed his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and several close advisors for instigating this latest military adventure.

Whatever the true motives behind igniting this war, one path seems almost certain to end it: Trump will hold a press conference declaring a unilateral and absolute victory. The precise timing of this declaration remains uncertain.

But the decision to cease hostilities does not rest with Trump alone; it is contingent upon the agreement of two other key parties: Tehran and Israel.

Israel shows no desire to end this war, as it is the primary beneficiary of its continuation. It systematically seeks to dismantle the structure of the Islamic Republic and sees no harm in the regime’s collapse leading to widespread chaos engulfing Iran and the entire region.

If Trump fails to restrain Netanyahu, the latter will not hesitate to continue his military operations even after any official American declaration of a ceasefire. This may explain why Trump declared that any settlement to end the conflict would only be possible with Netanyahu’s consent and explicit blessing.

However, the Zionist entity might feign acceptance of a ceasefire while its Mossad intelligence apparatus works behind the scenes to fuel separatist and rebellious sentiments among ethnic minorities within Iran, such as the Kurds and Balouchis, potentially threatening the cohesion of the Iranian state from within. In response, Tehran would have no choice but to continue targeting the entity, which would then retaliate swiftly, potentially drawing Trump back into a cycle of military confrontation.

Adding to Trump’s predicament is the possibility that he might ultimately declare a ceasefire unilaterally, without any fundamental change to the structure of the Iranian regime, and without extracting any genuine concessions from Tehran regarding halting uranium enrichment, dismantling its missile program, or severing its ties with regional allies—the very pretexts used to launch the war.

Even more dangerous is the fact that the Islamic Republic’s resilience and its emergence from this crisis with its system intact will make it a unique and exceptional model: The first country to challenge American hegemony and emerge unscathed. This could encourage other countries suffering under the weight of Trump’s policies or ambitions—such as Venezuela and Greenland—to adopt resistance as a path, even if they lack Iran’s military capabilities.

It seems to me that President Trump may be following in the footsteps of his predecessor, George W. Bush, when he famously declared victory in 2003 from the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which was then—as it is today—at the eye of the American military storm. It is worth recalling here that Bush’s speech was a highly symbolic and premature declaration, one that was quickly contradicted by events, as the war on Iraqi soil continued for nearly a decade afterward.

The war has exhausted Iran and burdened it with immense hardships, making it seriously seek a cessation of hostilities. However, it simultaneously finds itself in direct confrontation with American will. Iranian officials have made it clear that any agreement to a ceasefire and the resumption of negotiations is contingent upon receiving firm guarantees from Washington and Tel Aviv that the aggression will not be repeated. Should Tehran manage to withstand and overcome this phase, it is likely to add to its list of demands one of which is the lifting of some of the sanctions imposed upon it.

Therefore, it appears that the Iranian strategy is essentially based on a policy of systematic attrition; simultaneously exhausting the United States and Israel by driving oil prices to high levels and closing the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s vital energy artery. This would impose heavy economic burdens that might ultimately compel Washington to reconsider its calculations and agree to a ceasefire.

In short, Trump will not be in a position to deliver a victory speech in the next week or two, and any such declaration without genuine cooperation from Israel and Iran will amount to nothing more than empty rhetoric devoid of any real substance on the ground. There is no doubt that President Trump has put himself, his country, and the entire region in a very complex strategic predicament, from which the way out may not be as easy as those who made the decision to go to war imagine.

This analysis was originally written in Arabic and reprinted in crossfirearabia.com

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US-Israel Set to Drag The World Into a Globa Crisis

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