Winners, Losers in Ceasefire Gaza

Dr Khairi Janbek

The idea of peace in Gaza is a deeply complex and sensitive issue that involves multiple layers of history, politics, and human rights concerns. When asking who is the winner in such a situation, it is important to note that in conflicts like this, there is often no clear cut winner. Both sides have experienced significant losses, and the true victory is ideally peace and justice for all involved.

Therfore, writing about peace in Gaza and identifying a winner is a delicate and complex issue, given the long history of the conflict, the many political, religious, and social factors involved , anf the human toll. Rather than framing it in terms of winner, it might be more constructive to focus on how peace could be achieved and what that would mean for the people of Gaza, Israel, and the broader region.

To move forward, in any conflict the idea of a winner is flawed. For those caught in the crossfire, both Palestinians and Israeli have face immeasurable losses, so instead of asking who emerged victorious, we must ask how can both, Israelis and Palestinians, live side by side in dignity and security? Essentially, a lasting peace would not mean the obliteration of one side or the domination of another. It would require mutual recognition of each other’s rights, history and humanity. It would mean ending the cycle of violence that harms innocent civilians and leaves communities devastated, while opening the door for political and economic solutions that allow both peoples to thrive.

Heavy hand

For Israel, security is a non-negotiable priority. The persistent threat of violence from militant groups in Gaza has been a constant concern. On the other hand, Palestinians in Gaza must also be able to live without the heavy hand of occupation and blocade, ensuring their freedom. In this context, the international community must ensure that the rights of both Palestinians and Israelis are upheld, with a focus on dignity of the individuals; whether it is the right to live without fear of violence, or the right to self- determination and sovereignty.

Indeed the people of Gaza have long suffered under economic hardship, with hardly any access to basic services like healthcare, education, and employment opportunities, consequently any peace agreement must include a comprehensive plan for rebuilding Gaza, improving living standards, and opening up pathways to regional cooperation and trade. Achieving peace will require honest peacemakers on both sides, committed to negotiation and diaogue over violence. This clearly will involve the international community playing a much more active rôle in mediating talks, promoting trust-building measures, and holding all parties accountable.

The true winners in a new beginning would be the people; both Palestinians and Israelis, whom have suffered for too long. Peace would allow for the children of Gaza to grow up without fear of bombings, and for Israeli families to live in security without constant worry of attacks. Therefore, victory would be a shared one, a victory of humanity over hate, of hope over despair, and of a future where both Palestinians and Israelis can claim their right to live in peace, security, and mutual respect.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris

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Trump, Iran And The ‘Nuclear Fight’

Experts say the Middle East region is poised on an impending war with the top protagonists being the USA, Israel and Iran.  They stand on a military pedestal of violent conflict where Armageddon has become the new catchphrase.

The man at the center of it all is US president Donald Trump who has been elected on a so-called global “peace” ticket but is fueling the worldwide escalation with his rhetoric.

He is telling Iran, nay warning it, to either hitch out and agree to a new accord on the country’s nuclear file or face the American wrath where its Persian cities and nuclear facilities would be wildly attacked in a first-time development that is turning international relations upside down.

And so a war of words began between Tehran and Washington since Trump sent a stern letter to Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, telling him to submit to a new nuclear agreement to stall his country’s nuclear facilities or face extensive US bombing. 

This was a callous, stark warning. The international system has never, till now, faced such discursive diplomatic parlance, even at the height of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.

The Iranian leadership saw Trump’s verbiage as an outright threat and refused to submit, even telling US president that Iran will not be bullied and he can to “go to hell”, a comment made by Iranian president Massoud Pezeshkian. He was speaking for the Ayatollah and the top leadership in the country.

Since then however, and in spite of the occasional utterings, recently made by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Iraghchi that Tehran would respond quickly and heavily to any outside attack, both sides have been involved in a “jostling affair” issuing different and irk statements short of the war-mongering tirade Trump started.

Military brink

Today, and on the face of it, both sides appear to want to pull back from the military brink. The Iranians are now saying they would be prepared to negotiate but only indirectly through Oman, the country that has traditionally served as a consummate link between Washington and Tehran.

Whilst the Trump administration may be contemplating such a fact, although it’s on record for stating it would prefer direct face-to-face negotiations involving fully-fledged American and Iranian expert teams in the field of nuclear weapons and proliferation, Washington has not closed the doors to such an offer from Tehran and it is still considering it which means it might be softening its position.

But there is another snag to this. Iranian officials have stated they want confidence-building measures from the Trump administration and don’t believe in negotiations under threat but this appears to be what is happening today.

As the diplomatic chit chat continues, Washington is sending military reinforcements with jet fighters, mass bombs and missiles to the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and the Red Sea as part of their stepped-up fight against the Houthis and potentially against Iran, both of whom are against the Israeli military onslaught on the Gaza Strip which is being financed by the USA.

Thus, what is happening now is that both sides are involved in sending out mixed signals despite the military escalation and war of words with Trump in what is becoming his customary U-turns. He is now saying that he doesn’t want a fight with Iran and is prepared for negotiations. 

But the ball is turning so to speak. For one thing Israel has long sought deadly strikes on Iranian cities and nuclear facilities and for it, today this is a “golden opportunity” being flanked and supported by US warships in the area.

Israel sees such a series of strikes as more urgent than before because after 2018 when Trump got the USA out of the nuclear deal, Iran started once again to boost its uranium enrichment program and many argue it’s very near to achieving a nuclear bomb and capability.

But that may be over-stating the fact, because Iran has always stated its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and its officials have maintained an official dialogue with the countries it originally made a deal with in 2015 officially named as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

So the current escalation may be tinged with diplomatic talk for although Trump maybe rash in what he says, there is usually a back up plan up his sleeve of not reaching beyond the military brink with brinkmanship being played at the highest levels.

This comment is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website.

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Gaza Cracks Trump’s Image as ‘Peacemaker’

By Giorgio Cafiero

The Gaza ceasefire had been extremely fragile ever since its implementation on Jan. 19. Many analysts doubted that phase two would begin, and the main question was about when, not if, the ceasefire would fall apart. It came as no surprise when Israel completely ended the ceasefire on March 18 and resumed its genocidal war on Gaza, killing roughly 600 [1] Palestinians within the first four days after the truce collapsed.

It is beyond disturbing to think about what will come next for the 2.2 million people in Gaza, especially given that Israeli authorities imposed [2] a blockade on all humanitarian aid on March 2. While briefing the UN Security Council on the day Israel resumed its war, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher said [3] “food is rotting and medicines are expiring.” The Israelis quickly undid all humanitarian progress achieved by international actors during the 42-day ceasefire. “Essential survival resources needed are now being rationed,” warned [4] Fletcher.

For all the misleading and outright inaccurate reporting in the Western media, it is clear that Hamas wanted phase two to begin, which was supposed to take place on March 1. However, Israel wanted phase one extended and was against moving into phase two. Had the second phase begun, Hamas would have handed over all the remaining Israeli captives. Now, amid this intense warfare, Hamas claims it is considering US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s “Bridge Proposal,” which aims to extend the collapsed ceasefire into next month, beyond Ramadan and Passover, to permit negotiations for a permanent ceasefire to end this war.

It is not difficult to understand why this genocide resumed on March 18. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies in the government were crystal clear that they did not support the ceasefire and wanted Israeli military operations against Gaza to resume. It was only pressure from the incoming Donald Trump administration during the final days of Joe Biden’s presidency that led Tel Aviv to agree to the tenuous ceasefire. Now that the Trump administration removed that pressure on Israel and the American president went all-out with his rhetoric about “hell” in Gaza, Netanyahu received the green light from the White House to continue the genocide.


Trump’s desires and reality

What US President Donald Trump realistically sought to achieve with his obscene rhetoric about a “clean out” [6] of Gaza and outlandish talk of transforming the war-ravaged enclave into the “Riviera of the Middle East” [7] is a question for another article. Nonetheless, it is easy to conclude that such language emboldened the most right-wing and aggressive Israeli elements, including those in the government. These extremists have spent decades fantasizing about a second Nakba and establishing a Palestinian state outside Palestine.

Put simply, for Netanyahu and those around him to champion this plan of mass ethnic cleansing and forced displacement of millions of Palestinians into Egypt, Jordan, and perhaps also some Gulf Arab countries, continuing the war on Gaza is a necessary part of this process. After all, human history has shown that people don’t volunteer to leave their ancestral homeland but typically only do as a result of massive bloodshed.

The Israeli leadership understands this about the Palestinians and their quest to remain on their land. So much was on display with the leaflets [8] that Israel’s military recently dropped on Gaza, which threatened to make Trump’s plan for a “clean out” of Gaza the new reality.

To be sure, Israel’s domestic politics and Netanyahu’s own legal situation were relevant factors too. By restarting the war on Gaza, Netanyahu was able to secure stability within his own coalition. Now, not only is there no reason for him to fear more cabinet members quitting the coalition, but former Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir who left in January because of the ceasefire has returned [9] due to the genocide’s resumption.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s testimony in his corruption trial, set for the day that the war on Gaza recommenced, was postponed, [10] highlighting how “security developments” [11] shield him from legal consequences for his alleged [12] breach of trust, bribery, and fraud.

A key question is, where does this all leave Trump? After all, he campaigned on being a “peacemaker” president. While delivering his inaugural address just over two months ago, Trump declared, [13] “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”

At this point, Trump might find himself trapped in Gaza, preventing him from reducing the US military footprint in the Middle East. Trump is escalating conflicts in the region—from Gaza to Yemen and possibly soon Iran—that could keep the US bogged down in this part of the world, which is the opposite of his promises regarding US foreign policy if elected to a second term. It remains to be seen how Trump’s support for Israel’s actions in Gaza and his escalation in Yemen—closely tied to Palestine—will impact his standing among his MAGA base.

The author is the CEO of Gulf States Analytics

[1] https://www.euronews.com/2025/03/22/israel-orders-idf-troops-to-advance-deeper-into-gaza-as-renewed-operation-expands

[2] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/02/middleeast/israel-halts-gaza-humanitarian-aid-intl-hnk/index.html

[3, 4] https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/03/1161246

[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-intensifying-gaza-strikes-press-hamas-into-freeing-hostages-defence-2025-03-21/

[6] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/middleeast/trump-clean-out-gaza-middle-east-intl/index.html

[7] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trumps-gaza-israel-plans-riviera-rcna190748

[8] https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-drops-leaflets-saying-no-one-will-care-if-gazans-vanish

[9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/18/israels-ben-gvir-to-rejoin-netanyahus-government

[10,11,12] https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/report-netanyahus-testimony-corruption-trial-postponed-due-gaza-war

[13] https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/the-inaugural-address/

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