Winners, Losers in Ceasefire Gaza

Dr Khairi Janbek
Opinion
January 21, 2025

Dr Khairi Janbek

The idea of peace in Gaza is a deeply complex and sensitive issue that involves multiple layers of history, politics, and human rights concerns. When asking who is the winner in such a situation, it is important to note that in conflicts like this, there is often no clear cut winner. Both sides have experienced significant losses, and the true victory is ideally peace and justice for all involved.

Therfore, writing about peace in Gaza and identifying a winner is a delicate and complex issue, given the long history of the conflict, the many political, religious, and social factors involved , anf the human toll. Rather than framing it in terms of winner, it might be more constructive to focus on how peace could be achieved and what that would mean for the people of Gaza, Israel, and the broader region.

To move forward, in any conflict the idea of a winner is flawed. For those caught in the crossfire, both Palestinians and Israeli have face immeasurable losses, so instead of asking who emerged victorious, we must ask how can both, Israelis and Palestinians, live side by side in dignity and security? Essentially, a lasting peace would not mean the obliteration of one side or the domination of another. It would require mutual recognition of each other’s rights, history and humanity. It would mean ending the cycle of violence that harms innocent civilians and leaves communities devastated, while opening the door for political and economic solutions that allow both peoples to thrive.

Heavy hand

For Israel, security is a non-negotiable priority. The persistent threat of violence from militant groups in Gaza has been a constant concern. On the other hand, Palestinians in Gaza must also be able to live without the heavy hand of occupation and blocade, ensuring their freedom. In this context, the international community must ensure that the rights of both Palestinians and Israelis are upheld, with a focus on dignity of the individuals; whether it is the right to live without fear of violence, or the right to self- determination and sovereignty.

Indeed the people of Gaza have long suffered under economic hardship, with hardly any access to basic services like healthcare, education, and employment opportunities, consequently any peace agreement must include a comprehensive plan for rebuilding Gaza, improving living standards, and opening up pathways to regional cooperation and trade. Achieving peace will require honest peacemakers on both sides, committed to negotiation and diaogue over violence. This clearly will involve the international community playing a much more active rôle in mediating talks, promoting trust-building measures, and holding all parties accountable.

The true winners in a new beginning would be the people; both Palestinians and Israelis, whom have suffered for too long. Peace would allow for the children of Gaza to grow up without fear of bombings, and for Israeli families to live in security without constant worry of attacks. Therefore, victory would be a shared one, a victory of humanity over hate, of hope over despair, and of a future where both Palestinians and Israelis can claim their right to live in peace, security, and mutual respect.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris

Dr Khairi Janbek

Opinion

Jordan’s Fight Against Displacement

CrossFireArabia
February 19, 2025

By Dr Amer Al Sabaileh

With the conclusion of the first meeting between President Donald Trump and His Majesty King Abdullah, Jordan finds itself facing a real political test. The strategy of buying time with an administration that has been in office for only a few weeks may not offer much room for maneuvering, making it increasingly difficult to navigate the direction of US policy. Jordan has sought to carve out a space for itself by engaging with the American president and promoting an alternative that has broader Arab support. However, this approach requires swift action and the presentation of practical alternatives that could gradually shape Trump’s perspective.

Jordan now needs to build strong alliances to manage the next phase and counter the looming threat of forced displacement of Gaza’s population—a proposal that Trump has openly suggested as the only solution. Regionally, Jordan finds itself alongside Egypt as both countries face direct pressure from the US displacement plan. This shared challenge has reinforced their cooperation on various regional issues over the years, yet expanding the Arab alliance has now become an urgent necessity. The multiple forms of US pressure on Egypt make it crucial to establish a stronger, more resilient Arab coalition, with Saudi Arabia playing a central role.

Trump views Saudi Arabia as a gateway to regional peace and a key economic partner, not only for the United States, but also for a major strategic project aimed at linking India to Europe through the Arabian Peninsula, the Mediterranean, and Italy. This highlights the importance of Saudi Arabia’s role in Trump’s vision. At the same time, Jordan’s southern geography is closely tied to Saudi Arabia within this ambitious economic corridor, which strengthens shared economic interests between the two countries. This growing economic partnership could lay the groundwork for deeper political coordination, including a potential Jordanian-Saudi understanding regarding the proposed displacement policy.

On the international level, Jordan can work to rally support for its political stance, which enjoys broad consensus among key global actors. However, at this stage, prioritising Arab alliances and maintaining effective communication channels with the US administration is far more critical than merely seeking international backing.

Domestically, Jordan’s internal front remains the most crucial. The current climate presents an opportunity for the state to reinforce national unity, as growing regional instability has heightened public awareness of external threats. This requires decisive steps to foster genuine political participation and address long-standing grievances of exclusion and marginalization. A shift in political discourse, engagement strategies, and governance methods is necessary to strengthen national cohesion. Uniting Jordanians under an inclusive and representative state framework will be vital in shaping a new phase in the country’s history.

What remains striking is how Jordan was suddenly thrust into the equation of resolving the Gaza crisis. From the outset of the war, discussions primarily centered around Egypt due to its direct geographical connection to Gaza. However, Trump’s unexpected move to involve Jordan has now exposed the country to two major risks: the potential displacement of Gaza’s population and, more alarmingly, the forced displacement of West Bank residents. The push to make Jordan part of the US plan for Gaza raises concerns that this could lead to an imposed reality in which Jordan is expected to absorb West Bank residents as well.

Categorically rejecting forced displacement must be Jordan’s top priority. However, achieving this requires a high level of political agility and the ability to engage in direct negotiations with all relevant stakeholders. This approach would strengthen Jordan’s regional role at a time when further Israeli escalation across multiple fronts, including Gaza and the West Bank, seems increasingly likely. Such an escalation could be used by the Israeli government to block political maneuvering and impose new realities on the ground. A military confrontation could shift the issue of displacement from a political debate to an unavoidable reality, forcing all parties to confront its consequences.

The author is an academic writing for The Jordan Times.

Opinion

Don’t be Distracted by Trump’s Bizarre Plan, Focus…

CrossFireArabia
February 18, 2025

By James J. Zogby

My initial response to President Donald Trump’s proposals for Gaza was to dismiss them as bizarre, detached from reality, dangerously provocative, illegal, and callously insensitive to Palestinian humanity.

His proposals are, in fact, all of the above. But because we know that this president is not a stupid man, it would be wise to assume that there may be a “method to his madness.” Not unlike Trump’s “shock and awe” Executive Order blitz that had his opponents and the media scrambling to understand his intentions, I believe that the same logic may be at work with his Gaza remarks. The logic has two essential components. The first is to disorient and demoralize his opponents. The second is to distract them—like a carnival hustler’s shell game—so we take our eyes off the real issues in front of us and focus instead on the illusion being created.

With this in mind, I do not believe for a minute that Trump intends to send US troops to take over Gaza to forcibly expel 1.5 million Palestinians. Nor will he be able to coerce Jordan and Egypt to receive and permanently resettle these expelled Palestinians, nor entice Saudi Arabia to pay to build Palestinians a “big new beautiful place.”

All these ideas are so far-fetched and dangerous that it is inconceivable that this president, who says he wants to keep America out of war and bring peace to the Middle East, will try to do any or all of them.

I may be attacked by some for trying to give President Trump the benefit of the doubt. To be clear, that is precisely what I am not doing. He may want to turn the page with the distractions of a bizarre plan for Gaza. But instead of taking the bait, we should continue to focus on what’s real. What I am saying is that instead of spending endless hours attempting to parse out his words or critique his plan or prepare for its implementation (which is exactly what he wants us to do), we should avoid the distraction and focus on the urgency of matters in front of us. The fragile ceasefire in Gaza must be maintained and the parties must move into its second and third phases. That means continuing to press for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and plans to begin reconstruction. It means directing our attention and action to stopping Israel’s escalation of oppressive violence on the West Bank. And it means maintaining focus on the need to hold Israel and the US culpable for the war crimes committed during the past 15 months.

Neither President Trump nor Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want us to act on any of these pressing matters. They want to further demoralise Palestinians while causing turmoil in Arab countries. They want the clock to run down on Phase One of the ceasefire plan. This would allow Netanyahu to resume his war to achieve what he calls “total victory” in Gaza. It would also ensure that he maintains his governing coalition and remains in office.

In other words, instead of addressing real problems crying for our attention, President Trump wants us to fall for his game by debating an illusory distraction while the Israelis pursue their deadly game right under our noses. 

James J. Zogby is a columnist in The Jordan Times