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Analysis: Hezbollah’s War Strategy Against Israel

CrossFireArabia
November 9, 2024

Military and strategic expert Fayez al-Duwairi said the resistance’s performance witnessed a qualitative development. He pointed to a recurring pattern pf targeting the Israeli depth reaching a distance of 145 kilometers from the Lebanese border.

He explained that this development is accompanied by an increasing focus on targeting strategic military bases in Israel.

Al-Duwairi continued the resistance has begun to target the main strengths of the Israeli army, specifically the armored forces on the Blue Line and the air bases from which the aircrafts take off from.

He stressed targeting air bases is a strategic priority for them, as hitting a vital part of any base can disable them for hours, which reduces the number of sorties.

In his assessment of missile capabilities, the military expert explained the current range of missiles requires them to be launched from a depth of no less than 160 kilometers, pointing to the diversity of the missile systems used, as the Fateh missiles, for example, have a range of 300 kilometers, while the payload of the explosive warheads ranges between 70 and 500 kilograms.

Dense Barrages

Regarding the tactics used, Al-Duwairi pointed out Hezbollah’s strategy is to flood the skies of Israel with dense barrages of missiles, simultaneously with sending drones.

He pointed out that this tactic exploits the weaknesses of the Israeli Iron Dome system, which has only 10 batteries, while it needs 14-17 batteries to cover the all of the Israeli-occupied Palestine.

The military expert warned of the limited efficiency of the Israeli defense system, which does not exceed 65%, even with its reinforcement by the Iron Beam and the David’s Sling systems.

He explained the resistance exploits these loopholes by launching short-range missiles to flood the batteries, followed by long-range missiles or drones, which are tactics that have proven successful on several occasions.

Al-Duwairi stressed that the success of this strategy depends on precise coordination between different types of weapons and the appropriate timing of attacks, noting that the resistance is demonstrating an increasing ability to manage military operations with high efficiency.

Analyses

Trump’s Paradigm Shifts

Dr Khairi Janbek
November 7, 2024

Dr Khairi Janbek

Islolationism in American terms meant historically, the interests of the USA are best served by not getting entangled in wars across the Atlantic, nor in the political affairs of Europe and possibly beyond, while keeping the economic expansion going.

Now to what extent will the incoming administration of Donald Trump proceed with isolationism and to what extent it believes will serve US interests?; in the mean time let us not forget that people electioneering or euphoric, are not the same people in the Oval Office.

But still the first signs of isolationism are emerging in the field of US trade policy, with intended high customs and duties on imported goods from abroad.

This goes as well for the foreign policy of Trump which signals his distaste to negotiating with blocks and preferring bilateral agreements. This puts him in good standing with likeminded world leaders but certainly at odds with the EU, which by extension at odds with NATO also.

Ukraine

As for the current hot spots, Trump is accustomed to paradigm shifts, for a start he thinks that supporting Ukraine is a money losing project, and good business requires an atmosphere for peace. Therefore, most likely Trump will adopt a position of neutrality in this war, neither doing anything to harm Ukraine effectively, nor help it financially or militarily, while at the same time, trying to open diplomatic and trade dialogue with Russia.

He may take the initiative to urge negotiations between the two parties on the basis of a business deal, in other words concessions. No Meg’s Russia and not totally sovereign Ukraine, in any case, in Trump’s eyes, it is a European war after all.

Mideast

Now when it comes to the Middle East, this can be more tricky. Trump has good relations with the Gulf Arab leaders, leaders of Egypt and Jordan, but also he is committed to the security of Israel and has good relations with Netanyahu.

In a sense he has to square the circle if he wants to keep his relationships unscathed to deal with two most sour issues: The two state solution to the Palestinian problem, and the future of Iran, while taking into consideration, that both his allies, Egypt and Jordan are jittery about the issue of population transfer.

Trump’s option would be offering Netanyahu a free hand in Iran with US support, in exchange for a semblance of Palestinian self-rule, thus paving the way for deligitimising Hamas while legitimizing and presenting the continuation of war as a war between Israel and Iran, with Iran’s proxies being a legitimate target.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris and the above opinion is that of the author and doesn’t reflect crossfirearabia.com.

Analyses

Arabs Don’t Believe Tramp Will End War on Gaza

CrossFireArabia
November 6, 2024

Observers confirmed that incoming US president Donald Trump to occupy the White House will not change the view towards the Palestinian issue, as the Democrats and Republican are committed to an American political doctrine keen on the security, superiority and status of Israel.

Political analyst and lecturer at the Media Faculty at An-Najah National University Farid Abu Dhahir said “the Trump movement will not have a positive impact on the Palestinian reality, and will not see the end of the war unless it is within a plan and agreement made by Trump himself.”

As Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, residents of Arab countries have expressed fear of no end to Israel's brutal war on Gaza and Lebanon. as well as a wider shake-up of the Middle East: pic.twitter.com/pckVzBPWom
— The New Arab (@The_NewArab) November 6, 2024

Abu Dhahir told Quds Press the difference between Republicans and Democrats is not fundamental, especially with regard to internal matters… On the external level, they agree on preserving American interests in the world, but they differ in the way of managing this conflict.”

Abu Dhahir described Trump as “extremist and reckless… who does not care about anything, relying on the strength of the United States and its diplomatic, military and political power and influence on allies and those loyal to the US.”

Regarding the Democratic Party, he belives it “relies more on the method of evasion and the method of soft diplomacy to implement the plans of the United States of America.”

He believed these two parties completely agree on supporting the Israeli occupation in all circumstances and conditions.

War-mongering

“Even the Democratic Party, which uses soft diplomacy, has shown its true self in the conflict in Palestine, and never hesitated in sending tens and hundreds of thousands of tons of explosives, aircraft and other military equipment to the Israeli occupation.”

🚨🇵🇸 Khabib asks Trump to stop the genocide in Gaza last night at UFC 302:

Khabib: "I know you're gonna stop all this Palestine war."

Trump: "We're gonna stop it. I'm gonna stop it."

Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/JddFmg8cXS
— The Saviour (@stairwayto3dom) June 2, 2024

In turn, Palestinian writer and political analyst Khaled Maali said “Trump, being the next president of the United States will not depart from the present American policies that have not changed throughout the years and supported the Israeli occupation.”

Maali stressed that “the great reliance on the next president is an estimated shortcoming as he will continue on the path of his predecessor in supporting the occupation and its crimes.”

“Whoever believes that American interests, strategy and supreme interests can change with the change of the president is delusional and naive. It is true there is a margin, but it is so small it is not enough to change American interests.”

Maali says he is even more passimistic with the election of Trump and expects things to become worse, “as we have had some experience with him in his last term, and the woes and practices he brought on us, starting with moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem and/or proposing the Deal of the Century project.”

Donald Trump

I will end UKRAINE and GAZA war ,i don't want Americans money to waste on Wars

Do you Believe Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/wTYFimTLs7
— Palestinian (@drrpalestine) August 22, 2024

Americans went to the polls, Tuesday, to cast their votes in the 2024 US presidential elections and choose the 47th president of the United States and his deputy, as the initial results that unexpectedly brought back Trump to power with a whacking majority.

The Palestinian issue and the bloody war taking place Gaza were strongly present in the election campaign of all the candidates, who stressed they would work to change the reality if they came to power.

Analyses

Can Israel Holds on to Ayta Al Shaab?

CrossFireArabia
October 21, 2024

CROSSFIREARABIA – Finally, and after nearly three weeks of trying Israeli tanks, Monday, managed to enter Ayta Al Shaab, the little town, one kilometer away across the border into southern Lebanon.

Ever since 1 October, 2024, Israeli ground troops have been trying to enter from the south and south-east of the country but to no avail.

Now and with Ayta Al Shaab, the Israeli army are appearing to make the final push beyond the Lebanese-Israeli border; before that, Jewish soldiers have been trying to cross into southern Lebanon but with not much success.

They were moving just a few hundreds kilometers into Lebanese territory and then retreating due to the stiff resistance of the Hezbollah fighters. This area of Lebanon is regarded as tough Hezbollah territory where holding on to the homeland is a source of pride.

However, the latest Israeli incursion is a first and may just be the beginning of a long-drawn out bitter battle. But Hezbollah officials led by the Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem are saying that the party is ready and waiting for the Israeli tanks which means that the fighters are prepared and want such eventuality.

İsrail tankları Lübnan’ın en güneyinde yer alan Ayta Şaab kasabasına girdipic.twitter.com/xqMpiyEJQf
— Havadis (@havadisgazete) October 21, 2024

These Israeli soldiers in tanks managed to enter this small town by the extensive bombing of the place from the air over the past few weeks leading to it mass destruction and the scurrying of its people further up north for safety. So, basically the town now lies empty of civilians.

But this doesn’t mean the fighters have gone. They lie in waiting. Indeed, already there is talk of fierce fighting and clashes between Hezbollah fighters and the invading Israeli forces.

Observers are saying that entering Ayta Al Shaab or any other place in southern Lebanon such as Maroun Al Ras, Wadi Rmiesh, Dabel, Bint Jbeil, Ramia and Al Quzah, is one thing, but can the Israeli army maintain its presence in these areas.

Its one thing to invade but it’s another to enforce control and continue to move forward to other villages and towns of southern Lebanon.

This is doubly doubtful because of the spread of the Hezbollah fighters who are proving a formidable force fighting the Israelis inside Lebanon despite their air superiority and launching rockets and missiles across the border into northern Israel and creating much havoc, destruction and fires.

Here national consciousness and resistance against enemy forces are at the ready.

not gonna waste my time with an ignorant who prob learned about the war recently, but enjoy the reading. Do your homework kid
Look up the bint jbeil battle, ayta al shaab battle, just any battle of the war. Israel captured 0 townshttps://t.co/YvE7kbEIHF https://t.co/wuitvqkjRk pic.twitter.com/QsjBw1kRgy
— Shawarma (@shawarma514) June 6, 2024

The major challenge however, is the entry of the Israeli troops, who have up until now been kept at bay.

However, Ayta Al Shaab is a tough nut to break, having already proved itself in an earlier battle with Israel where the town stayed steadfast and fought for 33 days till Israeli soldiers were forced to depart from Lebanon.

That was in 2006 when Israel invaded the country in a major war that lasted for 34 days.

Analyses

Al Duwairi: Jabalia Battalion Surpassed Itself

CrossFireArabia
October 21, 2024

Military expert Maj-Gen Fayez Al-Duwairi said that the killing of the commander of the Israeli army’s 401st Brigade in north Gaza indicates the nature of the resistance, praising the capabilities of the Jabalia camp battalion of Qassam Brigades, the Hamas military wing.

Al-Duwairi explained in his analysis of the military scene in Gaza, the commander’s killing was expected as soon as he reached the outskirts of Jabalia, considering the value of the event lies in his military rank targeted by the resistance.

The Israeli occupation army announced the killing of the commander of the 401st Brigade, Colonel Ihsan Daqsa, and the serious injury of another officer in battles in Jabalia. The 401st Brigade is part of the 162nd Division, which is an armored brigade.

الخبير العسكري والاستراتيجي فايز الدويري تعليقًا على مقتل قائد لواء إسرائيلي: أتحدى القوات الخاصة في أفضل نخب العالم أن تقاتل بمستوى مقاتلي مخيم جباليا، فقد تفوقوا على الجيوش العربية رغم تخلي العالم عنهم#حرب_غزة #الأخبار pic.twitter.com/yQUaI7grGw
— قناة الجزيرة (@AJArabic) October 20, 2024

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that Colonel Daqsa was killed and another officer was seriously injured in a battle inside the Jabalia camp, after boarding a tank that had an explosive device inside it.

Journalist Mohammed Khairi quoted Israeli sources confirming that Daqsa was killed after he got off his tank with other officers and walked 20 meters, where an explosive device that had been planted in the area exploded.

On Sunday, the Qassam Brigades broadcast scenes of its fighters targeting Israeli military vehicles with explosive devices and anti-tank shells, in addition to fierce clashes with Israeli special forces from short distances.

Al-Duwairi believes that no ordinary person can wage such a defensive battle as that being done by resistance fighters in Jabalia because of its “complications, extermination and displacement.” He stressed the resistance has “exceeded” itself.

Under these circumstances, the military expert says that even “the American special forces cannot fight at the level of the Jabalia camp battalion of the Qassam Brigades.”

Al-Duwairi explained the resistance is “decentralized” to increase its maneuverability, adding this is unlike previous ground battles whilst analyzing the Jabalia Battalion divided itself into cluster cells, each of 3 to 5 fighters, where its commander chooses the targets based on field data.

He explained the brigade commander came to the area with a group of officers after the military operations in Jabalia faltered despite 17 days after their launch.

He expected the deputy commander of the slain brigade to be chosen to lead the 401st Brigade “if he is not injured”, as a search is underway for another commander, indicating that the deputy commander of the brigade is usually aware of 85% of the field reality according to Al Jazeera.