The Middle East Octopus

By Dr Khairi Janbek

When we think of contemporary Iran, one always believes that the Arab Middle East had always been dominated by three Non-Arab American allies: Iran of the Shah, Turkey and Israel. One thinks that those “neighborhood police stations” were the guarantors of stability through their convergence, and at times contradictions in the age of Cold War and oil. However, the Shah of Iran was deposed and the anti-communist Cold War ended, but that didn’t mean that oil stopped becoming important nor that both Russia and China were no longer threats.

One would say, that the rehabilitation of Iran and possibly turning it into a negotiations partner aims at keeping the third angle of the police stations triangle going, because non of the Arab countries, no matter how much they tried, could never replace Iran, because no “Arab police station” is permitted to emerge as a third angle.

Having said that, it would be beyond naive to think that the expansion of Iran’s power and influence happened by stealth or escaped the notice of the US and NATO. After all, Iran grew to become a Red Sea country through its influence on the Houthis in Yemen, a Mediterranean country through its influence in Syria as well Lebanon through Hezbollah, and the major Gulf country through its supporters in Iraq. In fact this Iranian domination of space is what has created a common space between all its long arm organizations in the region.

Essentially, if we compare Iran to an octopus, all those various groups are its tentacles, and they all serve the purpose of Iran’s strategic interests, albeit not through a push-button approach, but through not taking any action which would not please their master Iran. Of course, this puts Iran in a strong position to be a major player in the region and an inescapable negotiations partner for the US, which is also convenient for the Americans, in order to remind their Arab allies who is their protector in a region policed by Turkey, Israel and Iran.

Of course, this takes us to the point of saying that, for all intents and purposes, for the Americans a trusted adversary is more important than distrusted friends, and that it would be absurd to think that all those long arms of Iran in the Arab world can be amputated by military means; they certainly can be weakened, but without the consent of Iran and without the right price, so long as it remains behind them, nothing much can change.

At this point, from what one can only see, is that no one in their right mind or otherwise, will permit a war to emerge in which Israel is pitted against Iran and the US as well as NATO putting all their weight behind Israel and forcing the Arabs to choose their camp. That would be the scenario of the end of the world as we know it , or with major civil wars in the Arab countries controlled by the tentacles of Iran, and no one wants that.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris

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Don’t be Distracted by Trump’s Bizarre Plan, Focus…

By James J. Zogby

My initial response to President Donald Trump’s proposals for Gaza was to dismiss them as bizarre, detached from reality, dangerously provocative, illegal, and callously insensitive to Palestinian humanity.

His proposals are, in fact, all of the above. But because we know that this president is not a stupid man, it would be wise to assume that there may be a “method to his madness.” Not unlike Trump’s “shock and awe” Executive Order blitz that had his opponents and the media scrambling to understand his intentions, I believe that the same logic may be at work with his Gaza remarks. The logic has two essential components. The first is to disorient and demoralize his opponents. The second is to distract them—like a carnival hustler’s shell game—so we take our eyes off the real issues in front of us and focus instead on the illusion being created.

With this in mind, I do not believe for a minute that Trump intends to send US troops to take over Gaza to forcibly expel 1.5 million Palestinians. Nor will he be able to coerce Jordan and Egypt to receive and permanently resettle these expelled Palestinians, nor entice Saudi Arabia to pay to build Palestinians a “big new beautiful place.”

All these ideas are so far-fetched and dangerous that it is inconceivable that this president, who says he wants to keep America out of war and bring peace to the Middle East, will try to do any or all of them.

I may be attacked by some for trying to give President Trump the benefit of the doubt. To be clear, that is precisely what I am not doing. He may want to turn the page with the distractions of a bizarre plan for Gaza. But instead of taking the bait, we should continue to focus on what’s real. What I am saying is that instead of spending endless hours attempting to parse out his words or critique his plan or prepare for its implementation (which is exactly what he wants us to do), we should avoid the distraction and focus on the urgency of matters in front of us. The fragile ceasefire in Gaza must be maintained and the parties must move into its second and third phases. That means continuing to press for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and plans to begin reconstruction. It means directing our attention and action to stopping Israel’s escalation of oppressive violence on the West Bank. And it means maintaining focus on the need to hold Israel and the US culpable for the war crimes committed during the past 15 months.

Neither President Trump nor Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want us to act on any of these pressing matters. They want to further demoralise Palestinians while causing turmoil in Arab countries. They want the clock to run down on Phase One of the ceasefire plan. This would allow Netanyahu to resume his war to achieve what he calls “total victory” in Gaza. It would also ensure that he maintains his governing coalition and remains in office. 

In other words, instead of addressing real problems crying for our attention, President Trump wants us to fall for his game by debating an illusory distraction while the Israelis pursue their deadly game right under our noses.  

James J. Zogby is a columnist in The Jordan Times

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American Bombs Beat Gaza to Ground Zero

Since October 7, 2023, the United States has spent over $22 billion in military aid for Israel. This includes assaults on Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that the US supplied 69% of Israel’s arms from 2019 to 2023. This share rose to 78% by the end of that period.

In December 2023, the US delivered over 10,000 tons of weapons worth $2.4 billion to Israel. By August 2024, this number increased to 50,000 tons, transported via hundreds of planes and ships.

The US has provided advanced military equipment to Israel. This includes Iron Dome missiles, precision-guided bombs, CH-53 helicopters, AH-64 Apache helicopters, 155mm artillery shells, bunker-busting munitions, and armored vehicles.

Since 1946, US military and economic aid to Israel has totaled over $310 billion, adjusted for inflation. A 10-year, $38 billion military aid deal signed in 2016 remains active, allocating $3.8 billion annually. Emergency packages in 2024 added billions more, including $14.1 billion approved in February and a $2.5 billion arms shipment in March.

US weapons used mainly against civilians have drawn condemnation. Critics point to limited Congressional oversight and ongoing scrutiny over the impact on Palestinians in Gaza.

Lawsuit against US State Department Over Military Aid

In December 2023, a group of Palestinians filed a lawsuit against the US State Department. The lawsuit accuses the department of bypassing US human rights laws to fund Israeli military units accused of committing atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank.

Filed in the US District Court for the District of Columbia, the lawsuit states that Secretary of State Antony Blinken ignored the Leahy Law. This law prohibits US military aid to units committing gross human rights violations without accountability.

One plaintiff, a teacher from Gaza, was displaced seven times during the genocide. He lost 20 family members in the genocide.

The lawsuit criticizes the US for supporting Israel amid escalating human rights abuses since the genocide began in October 2023.

Senate to Vote on Arms Sale Restrictions

The US Senate is set to vote on legislation to block specific arms sales to Israel. Senator Bernie Sanders, along with Democratic Senators Jeff Merkley and Peter Welch, introduced resolutions to prevent the sale of 120mm mortar shells and Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs).

Another resolution, supported by Senator Brian Schatz, seeks to halt tank shell sales. JDAMs, manufactured by Boeing, convert unguided bombs into GPS-guided weapons.

Despite these efforts, bipartisan support for Israel makes it unlikely the resolutions will pass. Advocates argue that Israel has obstructed aid shipments desperately needed by Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

Criticism of US military aid to Israel continues to grow as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens as reported in the Quds News Network.

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