The Middle East Octopus

By Dr Khairi Janbek

When we think of contemporary Iran, one always believes that the Arab Middle East had always been dominated by three Non-Arab American allies: Iran of the Shah, Turkey and Israel. One thinks that those “neighborhood police stations” were the guarantors of stability through their convergence, and at times contradictions in the age of Cold War and oil. However, the Shah of Iran was deposed and the anti-communist Cold War ended, but that didn’t mean that oil stopped becoming important nor that both Russia and China were no longer threats.

One would say, that the rehabilitation of Iran and possibly turning it into a negotiations partner aims at keeping the third angle of the police stations triangle going, because non of the Arab countries, no matter how much they tried, could never replace Iran, because no “Arab police station” is permitted to emerge as a third angle.

Having said that, it would be beyond naive to think that the expansion of Iran’s power and influence happened by stealth or escaped the notice of the US and NATO. After all, Iran grew to become a Red Sea country through its influence on the Houthis in Yemen, a Mediterranean country through its influence in Syria as well Lebanon through Hezbollah, and the major Gulf country through its supporters in Iraq. In fact this Iranian domination of space is what has created a common space between all its long arm organizations in the region.

Essentially, if we compare Iran to an octopus, all those various groups are its tentacles, and they all serve the purpose of Iran’s strategic interests, albeit not through a push-button approach, but through not taking any action which would not please their master Iran. Of course, this puts Iran in a strong position to be a major player in the region and an inescapable negotiations partner for the US, which is also convenient for the Americans, in order to remind their Arab allies who is their protector in a region policed by Turkey, Israel and Iran.

Of course, this takes us to the point of saying that, for all intents and purposes, for the Americans a trusted adversary is more important than distrusted friends, and that it would be absurd to think that all those long arms of Iran in the Arab world can be amputated by military means; they certainly can be weakened, but without the consent of Iran and without the right price, so long as it remains behind them, nothing much can change.

At this point, from what one can only see, is that no one in their right mind or otherwise, will permit a war to emerge in which Israel is pitted against Iran and the US as well as NATO putting all their weight behind Israel and forcing the Arabs to choose their camp. That would be the scenario of the end of the world as we know it , or with major civil wars in the Arab countries controlled by the tentacles of Iran, and no one wants that.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris

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Kareem Khan – Chronology of a Scandal: A View From Amman

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

Another somber episode in the ongoing Middle East saga is about to be quietly scrapped by manipulative overt hands and emerging developments, that are no less than disappointing!

The story of the main character of this episode began long time ago in Edinburgh, Scotland, in 1970, when a child was born to a dermatologist Scottish mother and a Pakistani father of the same trade!

The child was named Kareem Asad Ahmad Khan, who grew up to educate himself in Law, later to pursue a judicial career, until he landed as top job in The Hague, the Netherland, in 2021, and eventually becoming the Chief Persecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

It was at this juncture that he replaced Ms. Fatou Bensouda, a lady of Gambian origin, who was seeking to investigate the never-ending tragic situation in Gaza and the West Bank under the Israeli military occupation.

Scuffle With Mossad

Bensouda stepped down after 17 years of service at the ICC, including the last nine years as Chief Prosecutor. On her point of departure, she made it clear that the Israeli head of intelligence, Yossi Cohen, met her more than once and told her to drop the charges she was making against Israel’s actions in the two Palestinian territories, but she would not bow, until she officially resigned on 15 June, 2021.

And so since the beginning of his new appointment the new chief prosecutor, and like his predecessor, Khan was charged of continuing to investigate cases, situations and/or individuals suspected of offenses such as genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and aggression, where and whenever, they occurred, whether in Ukraine, Darfur, Belarus, Afghanistan or in Gaza and which indeed become his nightmare, magnified by an Israeli genocide on all accounts that began on 7 October 2023 and lasted for 2 years, 9 months and more, and was declared ‘De Jure’ in October 2025.

No one warned Mr. Khan that he was stepping into a thick minefield, or if they did, he would only listen to his heart and conscience! For that, he must have been bracing for the worse, for himself, and probably for the thousands of war victims he was investigating.

The war in Gaza led to the death and injury of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, (nearly 75,000 dead and more than 200,000 injured), whereas for the Israelis, they suffered 1200 dead and at least over 5000 injured.

So, in May 2024, Khan adopting a “balanced” position despite the flagrant disparity between the two sides on all levels, announced the arrest warrants for five main individuals directly involved in Gaza war: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and the top three leaders in Hamas: Yehya Sinwar, Mohammd Dief and Ismail Haniyeh.

Days after the issuance of these arrest warrants, the name of a certain local female employee (known only as Sarah) suddenly popped up at the ICC, as the alleged victim of sexual harassment at the hands of non-other than the honorable Chief Prosecutor, Kareem Khan!

In an orchestrated follow up, the US Treasury Department in February 2024 imposed sanctions on Khan, after President Donald Trump sanctioned the ICC judges for issuing the said arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Galant.

And in May 2025 Khan stepped down as Chief Prosecutor due to the said allegations of sexual misconduct, and was suspended pending a vote by the state members of the ICC.

In July 2026 Khan was ousted from his post as 82 out of 125 ICC member states voted, in secret, in favor of his dismissal!

As for the Palestinian leaders who were also involved in that war, Israel took things in their hands and ended the life of the three Hamas leaders: Mohammd Deif was killed in Khan Younes on 13 July 2024, Yehya Sinwar killed in the same city on 16 October, 2024 and Ismael Haniyeh was assassinated in faraway Tehran on 31 July, 2024.

The question now is whether the candidate for the Chief Prosecutor post at the ICC, will follow suit in the footsteps of his two predecessors, regarding the unfinished business of atrocities and war crimes around the globe, or will he/she be somebody of a new breed of international prosecutors?

Soon we may have a clue! But personally, I am not optimistic!

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West Bank: A Ticking Time-Bomb

By Ismail Al Sharif

Imagine you are sitting with your children at home when a violent knock shakes the door. You open it to find a blond, European-looking man holding a weapon in one hand and a Torah or Talmud in the other, with soldiers behind him.

He orders you to leave the house, saying: “God gave me this house 3000 years ago.” You reply, “But it’s my home; I was born here, and my father and grandfather were born here before me.”

They push you aside, storm into your house, and throw your furniture outside. Your children cry, they throw your wife out, and your blood boils. You wrest the weapon from the blond man and shoot him. They kill you, and then a bulldozer comes to demolish your house.

The next day, the world’s newspapers headline: “Army kills terrorist after he tried to attack occupation soldiers.”

You might go out in the morning to graze your sheep, and in the distance, you see a few fair-haired young men who have pitched a tent on a fenced-off plot of land on a hill. At first, the scene seems fleeting, but soon you see them approaching your land, wandering among your olive trees and your flock, then attacking you, stealing your livestock, and burning your trees.

After that, they seize part of your land and annex it to the area they have taken over. The fence extends day by day, growing longer and wider. Over time, your land, and the land of your relatives, friends, and all the people of your village, becomes part of the nucleus of a new settlement.

Roads change, streets are closed, and checkpoints are erected, until reaching a place only a few hundred meters away becomes a journey that takes hours.

These scenes are repeated daily in the West Bank, where settlers terrorize, assault, and kill Palestinians under the protection of the occupation army, while ministers from the occupation government appear in the background of these attacks. The goal is clear: To empty the West Bank of its original inhabitants, both Muslims and Christians, and uproot them from their land, paving the way for its seizure and Judaization.

All of this is happening in full view of the world, amidst President Donald Trump’s objections and the condemnation of the international community, at a time when his 20-point peace plan was announced in a celebratory atmosphere on September 29th of last year.

However, time has revealed that this plan was nothing but ink on paper. The occupation continues to control over 60% of the Gaza Strip, demolishing buildings and bulldozing agricultural lands in the areas under its control. It also continues its daily bombardment of the Strip, which, since the plan’s launch, has resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 Gazans and injured more than 3,600 others. This is while the siege continues and humanitarian aid is prevented from entering.

As for the West Bank, settlement outposts have expanded, and the occupation government recognized 19 additional settlements after the plan’s launch. This coincides with an unprecedented escalation in settler attacks, the continued demolition of homes and displacement of their residents, as well as the ongoing incursions into Palestinian cities, villages, and refugee camps.

The government of war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu makes no secret of its plans to annex the West Bank and thwart any attempt to establish a Palestinian state, while its leader orders the occupation army to launch continuous military campaigns in West Bank cities, villages, and refugee camps.

The West Bank today sits atop a powder keg, fueled by accumulated feelings of anger, fear, frustration, and resentment, awaiting a spark that could ignite the situation. Then, the sporadic confrontations could transform into a widespread popular uprising, which could very well extend beyond the borders of the West Bank.

No one knows how wide the circle of confrontation might widen, where it might spread, or the extent of the repercussions it might have in Jerusalem, the Palestinian territories within Israel, and neighboring countries. Arab governments and their armies may find themselves facing mounting popular and political pressure, pushing them either to engage in a confrontation they do not want, or to take positions and actions they have long sought to avoid.

This article was originally written in Arabic by Ismail Al Sharif and published in Jordan’s daily newspaper Ad Dustour and is reprinted in crossfirearabia.com. Mr Al Sharif long worked in newspaper management and publishing in Amman. 

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