Israel: Displacement Versus Regional Expansion

Dr. Maysaa Al-Masry

It’s a war game between an isolated leader and an accused leader, a leader fleeing corruption and the courts, and a leader selling homelands like real estate on the pavement of the White House. How can they make peace? With the blessing of pseudo-leaders, once described as Arab Muslims, they have forgotten that history disowns false heroism, no matter how long it lasts. Indeed, it’s a stain that history will never erase, for conspiracies have an expiration date.

The game is aggressive and contradictory, with diminished rights and usurped land, and it is being exaggerated to create new heroes, expose traitors, and burn paper heroes. Announcing radical change is more Trumpian than it is a way to achieve the goal. The goal is geopolitical whose stakes are greater than those in the ruins of Gaza, or for the people of the West Bank.

https://twitter.com/UN_SPExperts/status/1902287625232289828

What we perceive now on the ground is the result as actually being implemented in the region of Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, and elsewhere. This is far removed from the American political legacy, which has come to present itself as an unfair mediator with its possibility of implementing peace by force!

A Zionist base

We are faced with an occupying state that wields American power, a Zionist base in the heart of America and entity. America studies the state of politics firsthand. It is the largest country to explore the concept of state with military, geographical, and geopolitical capabilities. Geopolitical power is the most important element of its strength, exploited on the basis of geographical expansion.  

States are considered human communities that grow and expand, weaken and shrink. The plan, my dear friends, is a trial balloon the size of the Middle East, with its peoples remaining stagnant and helpless. But the question is: Where does its success lie?

Let’s address this point by point. Reality shocks us, while history never forgets the amount of public discussion about settlement and the forcible preparation of political conditions to weaken the position of the international community and Europe in the ongoing conflict to subjugate the Arab situation to the point of fragmentation, division, and subservience.

Yes, Netanyahu continues his war to preserve his government with Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir, to pump billions of dollars into the government budget, to evade prosecution, and to realize the agenda of the Likud and religious Zionism to control the levers of the occupying state in its extremist Jewish nationalist form. But to what extent can Netanyahu can he continue to be evasive?

Netanyahu is now using the concept of force through traditional methods of exterminating civilians and then displacing the largest possible number of Gazans. He is also seeking to change the map of the region, annexing lands in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Judaizing Al-Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem, reshaping security to suit Israeli interests, and impose normalization. The region is in turmoil and change whilst undergoing a process of formation and renewal. The Syrian model is a prime example.

Regional expansion

The imposition of further conditions of humiliation on the Arab environment, the multi-front military campaign, as is happening in Syria and southern Lebanon, to reshape and strengthen Israeli security and regional influence in the long term. These developments will impose new facts on the ground to prevent any future political solution, as Israel seeks to expand settlements, forcibly displace Palestinians, and annex the remaining land.

Recognizing the Jewishness of the state and following the provisions of the Nation-State Law stipulates that Jews have the right to settle in the Arab region wherever they wish, and that the Israeli state must provide protection and care for every Jew. Declaring the Jewish state from the sea to the river is a form of soft displacement by all means, both covert and overt. Israel’s ambitions span the entire Arab region, as the Nation-State Law does not define the borders of the Jewish state posing great dangers to the delusional states that normalize relations with Israel, whilst believing that Israel will be an ally against an imaginary, fabricated enemy.

We should not overlook the fact that some Zionist political and military leaders believe that Israel should not consider the “alternative homeland” concept of displacement as a strategic and ultimate goal because it poses a constant danger and threat to its existence based on its assumption of a neighboring state(s) hosting the displaced Palestinian people within its vicinity as an occupier of their land and homeland.

Additional questions that must be raised is: To what extent should the goal be security-related? How large is the required area for expansion? Is this a fundamental and permanent requirement for Israel’s security, as has been stated? How does the area of ​​land, whether in Syria, southern Lebanon, or elsewhere, fit into a general Zionist plan to serve as Israel’s eastern flank? To what extent should the region be expansionist, to what extent should it be aligned with Zionist expansion into the Gulf states?

Another issue is: Will there be a push to conclude an agreement with Israel that is more important than Wadi Araba and be in Israel’s favor? What about the four-party negotiations or more, and to whom will the invitation be addressed? And what would be the price that would follow? Perhaps the Palestinian Authority itself? The contradiction in the statements is clear and deliberate, and Israel is the ruling authority there! The most important question remains: What leverage do the countries of the region possess and use to prevent its negative influence?

Greater Israel

What is of certain is that Israel is pursuing of what is beyond for the greater Zionist entity reach. While discussing the Jewishness of the state, we cannot overlook other aspects of Zionist lore, the most important of which is the construction of the pagan Third Temple on the ruins of the Dome of the Rock. Are we concerned about that?

Unfortunately, the entity of Israel as a whole is illegitimate, but the world offers nothing but rejection of our Arab and Islamic identity.

They continue with the Zionist entity’s plan for the Middle East under the guise of the Sharon-Eitan strategic regime, the “spit of the century,” and other labels, provided there is Arab and Islamic division, an increasing imbalance of power, and the absence of genuine Arab peoples calling for the freedom of their homelands…not to provide for their livelihood, whose voices will be silenced by the provision of aid and debt forgiveness, or such some.

The writer is a researcher specializing in Middle Eastern affairs and the above article was edited from Arabic that appeared in Alrai Alyoum website.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Hormuz: Mines, Strategy or Business?

By Ismail Al Sharif

The US thought that assassinating senior Iranian leaders would bring down the regime, but this did not happen.

Iran’s inability to match American military and technological superiority led it to adopt a number of strategies, most notably what is known in the military literature as the Mosaic Defense Doctrine. This doctrine is based on dismantling its military central command into small, independent units, each operating autonomously and making its own decisions without consulting the higher command.

From Day 1 of the war, Iran adopted this approach. However, the lack of coordination and the disintegration of the military hierarchy led to chaos and confusion which affected the management of its operations. The situation became contradictory; the politicians were declaring one thing and military commanders acting in a completely different manner and direction.

This was reflected on the ground through extremely dangerous behavior. Military units, using small boats, indiscriminately laid naval mines to deter enemy ships. However, the lack of coordination here backfired resulting in the Iranian navy officers losing their ability to pinpoint the coordinates of the mines they planted in the Hormuz Strait with no accurate maps or reliable records. Some of these mines may have been completely displaced by the currents of the sea. This was further complicated by the fact that these mines were not primitive but far from it; they were sophisticated and able to detect sound and pressure, and thus able to track the passage of large ships and submarines, and detonate automatically upon approach.

However, mine removal is not easy task, as history shows. Even today, news reports continue to surface of mines in various parts of the Kingdom, half a century after the last war. Indeed, mines from World War II are still being discovered on land and at sea.

Even with Britain’s pledge to remove mines after the war, and despite possessing the latest specialized technologies in this field, the task remains arduous, protracted, and uncertain. The specter of a sudden explosion looms, reminding us that the danger of mines is not easily eliminated.

But the decisive factor in weakening navigation in the Hormuz Strait is not primarily military, but rather material. Commercial ships are massive investments, with some vessels valued at around $150 million and their cargoes potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, a single mine explosion can cause catastrophic losses to both the ship and its cargo. Consequently, no ship sails without insurance; ports, banks, and shipping companies refuse to deal with uninsured vessels, and without insurance, global shipping grinds to a halt.

Herein lies the real surprise: the fate of the Strait is no longer dependent on Iran’s pronouncements regarding its opening or closure, but has effectively fallen into the hands of insurance companies. With the escalating risks, insurance costs have skyrocketed; “war risk” premiums have jumped from approximately 0.25% of the ship’s value to nearly 1% or more, exceeding a massive $1 million per voyage. And it doesnt stop there; seven major insurance companies announced their complete withdrawal, issuing notices of coverage cancellation just within just 72 hours.

And here comes the decisive turning point: Once the insurance coverage is lost, maritime traffic ground to a halt. During this 39-war, ships have effectively ceased sailing with the number of vessels transiting the Strait plummeting by more than 80%. Around 150 oil tankers remain anchored offshore, and major shipping companies suspended their operations, as if this vital artery of global trade had been frozen by a financial, rather than a military decision.

The US government attempted to provide alternative insurance coverage, but this effort failed and US President Trump’s pronouncements regarding mine removal were inconsistent with the reality.

The issue of reopening the Strait has once again become a prominent topic, but the deeper truth is that its fate is no longer determined by political statements or military actions, but rather by the decisions of insurance experts. Even if the war were to end immediately, ships would not resume sailing right away. Insurance companies need time to reassess the level of risk, and they base their decisions not on political logic, but on cold, hard numbers and rigorous data.

This article was originally published in Arabic in Addustour daily newspaper and republished in English in crossfirearabia.com.

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Analysis: Middle East in Iranian Eyes

CROSSFIREARABIA – During the Israeli Genocide on Gaza Benjamin Netanyahu used to stand up and say with a smirk: ‘We are changing the face of the Middle East’.

Upbeat about murdering the women and children of Gaza from the late 2023 onwards, he was talking about the further normalization of the Arab world as established by the Abraham Accords, establish an economic order under Israel’s hegemony and end Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis while clipping the wings of Iran.

Of course, Netanyahu’s face soon changed, albeit two-and-a-half years later, when Iran and Hezbollah were forced into a war generated by Israel and the USA on 29 February, 2026. While Iran got a battering, in the next 39 days, US ships and military bases in the Gulf and Jordan received such a hammering that soon forced US President Donald Trump to plead for a ceasefire.

In this war, Israel received a great shock, being attacked literally on an hourly and daily basis with its buildings, military basis and infrastructure taking directs hits while its millions of people living in underground shelters around-the-clock. 

To use a metaphor Tel Aviv’s nose was being rubbed in the sand in a way that has never been imagined by Netanyahu nor his ilk of extremist right wing fascist politicians who started calling for the expulsion of Gaza Palestinians from their homeland ever since the Israeli genocide on them since 7 October, 2023. 

Today’s Netanyahu’s vision of a new Middle East has been drastically changed, thrown in his face in fact! Iran’s political stances and its missiles have changed things around. The US and Israel were not able to change the current Iranian government in Iran despite killing the country’s spiritual leader Ali Khameini, have not ended the country’s nuclear program nor ended its ballistic missiles. 

So what is Netanyahu talking about? Yes, today there is clearly a new Middle East emerging but it is not according to Netanyahu’s eyes nor his wishful thinking. If anybody should be ‘celebrating’ it is clearly Iran, it’s government, revolutionary guard, its Generals, officers and soldiers who are very probably changing the face of the Middle East and may even be setting the map of how the region should look like in form from now on. 

From day one of the war, Trump started running scared despite his outlandish mutterings! He came to realize quickly that Netanyahu and the Mossad pushed him against Iran, convincing him it would be an easy fight and the government there would fall like a pack of cards. Trump since, started kicking himself as he finally fell to Netanyahu’s squinted prism to go after that country. Netanyahu kept pushing for this wild step since the 1990s through previous US presidents from Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

But they did not listen to him however, Trump fell into the trap and maybe this is why he is now privately kicking himself because he basically sent the globe into an economic tailspin and soaring exorbitant oil prices, a potentially deep recession and financial chaos.

In this war Netanyahu may have shot himself in the foot. His alliance with the USA  juxtaposed by Hezbollah whose fighters laid dormant since November 2024 when it stopped firing at Tel Aviv was a big surprise to the latter. Israel had previously thought that Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire out of weakness and thus their entry into military action was unexpected. Hezbollah kept the military pressure on for six more days after Washington signed off with Iran and beating the Israeli army into submission.

On day 46 Trump intervened calling on the Israeli army to stop fighting Hezbollah. He had ulterior motive, he wanted to extract a normalization agreement between the Lebanese government and Israel; their ambassadors had just started meeting in Washington at the invitation of the US State Department in an upbeat atmosphere and inline for a final agreement to establish an accord between Tel Aviv and Beirut alongside the ones signed between Israel and four Arab states, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco starting September 2020. 

Thus a normalization agreement would be a feather in Trump’s cap, a sort of prestige move for the US president. But his pressure may have been seen as a life-saving formula. Trump was saving Israel from Netanyahu’s insistence that his army to keep fighting in southern Lebanon. Its fight has already cost Israel at least 13 soldiers who were killed, more than 500 injured and more than 100 topnotch Merkava tanks destroyed. Israeli towns and cities were being hammered from the north.

Israel was being beaten from the north. Its towns, cities and military bases again were wide-open to incoming rockets from Lebanon and were not being deflected. It was a war that had to be stopped. This time Trump insisted. If a ceasefire with Iran was going to stick, then Netanyahu had to be forced to make his soldiers stop their fight in Lebanon. 

Thus for the time being Netanyahu’s hand lie in check. Yet in the long run his dream for a new Middle East with Israel playing a central part in it may have been halted. After all, no Gulf or even Arab states now would think of normalizing with Israel despite the fact that Lebanon is being forced into it, but even for then its early days.

Netanyahu can kiss goodbye his long-life attempt to sign a normalization accord with Saudi Arabia for instance, a kingdom which is seen as a “major puller” in the Arab and Muslim world. It has already said that normalization is off the table with Israel. The Gulf has been disappointed in this war because it showed that America were not able to protect them from Iranian missiles that targeted their infrastructure as well the US military bases strewn across the region.

Netanyahu has lost on the economic level as well. His country stands economically devastated, army in ruins as admitted to by the Israeli chief of staff Eyal Zamir, and the dream of opening an ‘economic Middle East’ is definitely dashed for the time being.

America, as Trump knows, is left to pick up the pieces of a tattered world caused by war any choas in a region that is vital to the global system.

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