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The Day After in Syria is Simply Bleak!

Saleem Ayoub Quna
December 30, 2024

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

Syria has just turned a gloomy chapter of its long turbulent history that lasted for at least half-a-century. The question now is: Will this new era bring better or worse news for this beleaguered country and its people?

The new local stake holders on the ground and outside players are showing different and often conflicting signals of what lies ahead. A month ago, the totalitarian Assad dynasty regime collapsed, its
dictator fled the country, his strong men melted into the caves, his father’s imposing statues downed and his foreign supporters’ influence, Iran and Russia, evaporated. From this underdog dark side, the game
was over!

But it was not so on the other rising side of the game, where you have the local opposition of multiple groups and their new de facto foreign partners and friends, celebrating the defeat of the bygone oppressive regime.

All they see is a helpless, desperate and a lone prey for the cut! In real terms the country, so far, is being divided into different de facto regional enclaves or mini-states. Each is controlled by its own local
leaders. Members of each community share either the same faith, or speak the same language, or adhere to a host of old norms and traditions inherited from their ancestors.

Both leaders and their followers of each faction are finding themselves at a crucial turning point. Do they want to repeat what their previous leaders did when they, willy-nilly, allowed the central government under the Assad regime, run their daily life affaires, and then when it was too late, discovered that they were either deceived or coerced by the now defunct regime’s agents? Or are they saying no more of this stuff this time, and accordingly acting more independently to preserve their special identity and immune their rights?

The idea of partitioning Syria as we know it since its independence in 1946 is not new! It can be traced back to its pre-independence original format, conceived then by the French mandatory power in the early 1900s, when the Ottoman’s four centuries rule, of the whole of Arabia and North Africa, came to an end.

At that time, France, sanctioned by League of Nations, suggested to divide the country into five main enclaves or mini-states: An Alawite enclave on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean with Latakia as its capital, an Aleppo enclave in the north, a Jabal Druze enclave in the south, bordering Jordan, Alexandretta enclave which was taken by Turkey and renamed as the Hatay province, and finally the dominated Sunni region in the center with its capital Damascus.

Today, the US, with the consent of other good wishers, are openly pushing, by deeds and words, to create an additional enclave in the autonomous Kurdish oil-rich region in the north-eastern part of Syria.
On the Golan Heights, the new strong players are turning a blind eye to the serious Israeli military encroachments inside proper Syrian territories, previously recognized by the world community and UN resolutions. At the same time, the emerging clashes in the east and west of the country and other places in the center, between rivaling armed groups, leave little room for optimism.

The most important step Syrians need today is a constitution that can stand at the same distance from all components of the society. But surprisingly, the last statement attributed to the new top man in
Damascus saying such a constitution might take four to five years to come to life, can only send discouraging and negative signals to all the components of Syrian society and others!

A final question that must be asked: Is Syria nearing to lose its last chance to avoid falling back in the pre-independence fragmentation trap?

This opinion was especially written for Crossfire Arabia by Saleem Ayoub Quna who is a Jordanian author writing on local, regional and international affairs and has two books published. He has a BA in English Literature from Jordan University, a diploma from Paris and an MA from Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He also has working knowledge of French and German.

Culture

Aleppo Returns to Normality With a Big Concert

CrossFireArabia
December 22, 2024

Thousands gathered Saturday in Aleppo to attend a concert organized by the London-based humanitarian organization, Syria Relief, as life begins to normalize in Syria under opposition-controlled areas with residents continuing to celebrate newfound freedoms.

The four-hour concert featured renowned Syrian artist Yahya Hawwa with attendees enjoying an evening filled with music, revolutionary and resistance-themed songs and anthems.

Syrian flags waved across the venue as the concert concluded peacefully, offering vibrant and colorful scenes according to Anadolu.

Fall of Syria’s 61-year Baath regime

Clashes between anti-regime armed groups and forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad intensified Nov. 27, leading to significant shifts in the country.

Between Nov. 30 and Dec. 7, opposition groups gained control of major provinces, including Aleppo, Idlib, Hama and Homs.

By Dec. 7, as opposition forces entered the national capital of Damascus, widespread public support helped the groups dismantle regime control.

The Baath Party’s 61-year rule officially ended Dec. 8 when Assad fled the capital to Russia, where he and his family sought asylum.

The Syrian National Army, meanwhile, launched the Dawn of Freedom operation in December, successfully liberating the town of Tel Rifaat from the PKK/YPG terror organization on the first day.

The operation also secured Manbij, clearing the western Euphrates region of PKK/YPG presence.

Following the regime’s collapse, a transitional government was formed, with Mohammed al-Bashir appointed interim prime minister until March 2025.

Türkiye reopened its embassy in Damascus on Dec. 14, and several Western countries have since sent delegations to the Syrian capital.

News

After 42 Years Jordanian Freed From Syria Prisons

CrossFireArabia
December 14, 2024

The Jerusalemite Walid Barakat, who hails from the village of Nabi Samouil, northwest of occupied Jerusalem, was released and reunited with his family in Jordan after entering prison life in Syria as a young man at the age of 26.

Barakat said that “life was written for him several times in prison after he was close to death,” and that he learned of his life sentence after 30 years of imprisonment.

Barakat’s nephew pointed out that “his uncle arrived at the border physically exhausted after the opposition forces took him there immediately after he revealed his nationality,” adding “Walid has a large family in Jordan that will embrace him forever after years of forced absence from them.”

He added that “Walid spent 14 years in solitary confinement, and that the family did not know exactly where he was, whether he was detained in Syria, Turkey or Lebanon, until his name was listed in 1996 among the Palestinian detainees in Syrian prisons in a newspaper through the efforts made by international human rights organizations.”

He said, “the family started communicating with him through some Syrians who contact him by phone, and they told him of our news and they conveyed his news to us.”

Walid was arrested by Syrian forces at the Damascus airport on 31 October, 1982, and was subjected to solitary confinement in Tadmur prison for many years, where he experienced the worst forms of torture, before the opposition forces opened the prison doors and freed the prisoners and he immediately headed towards the border with Jordan, according to his family.

The family added that “Walid never saw sunlight during his solitary confinement, and inside the prisons he became a number that was called out like the rest of the prisoners.”

His relatives said, “the only meeting that brought him together with one of his family members was in 2005 when Hatem’s father and sister traveled to Syria and met him in Mezzeh prison in Damascus, and no one was able to visit him after that.”

On 27 November, the Syrian armed opposition factions launched their “Deterrence of Aggression” operation, starting from Idlib and Aleppo, then Hama and Homs, arriving in Damascus, which they entered at dawn last Sunday, announcing the fall of the Assad regime according to the Quds News Network.

Opinion

Syria: 10 Days That Shook The World

Dr Khairi Janbek
December 10, 2024

Dr Khairi Janbek

Without much ado, the western media is currently preoccupied with this question: Are the Syrian rebels Jihadis? This is while the Arab media appears to be in a state of euphoria about the Syrian rebels seen as liberators. The issue however is about two perspectives, the first being cautious about the next phase for the country, and this is for understandable reasons, while the second reflects optimism for the next stage and also for understandable reasons.

Now, the fear of dividing Syria on ethnic and sectarian grounds has its blueprint in the colonial history of Syria and certainly not a product of today and/or creative chaos utterances.

Looking back

In fact, on 1 July, 1922, the French colonial authorities divided Syria into federal statelets: statelet of Damascus, statelet of Aleppo, statelet of the Alawites, and the statelet of the Druze. Of course, the idea was that the country would be easier to rule and a regional and a sectarian balance would guarantee political stability. Of course, the Kurds were outside this formula as they were struggling to create an independent state of their own.

But what about Syria now, to paraphrase John Reed, after the 10 days that shook the world. Indeed, the two regional police stations in the region, Turkey and Israel seems to be gaining major influence in the current affairs, while the third police station, Iran, has lost out in this formula.

Rivalry

For all intents and purposes, no one is naive enough to think that the march towards Damascus could have occurred without Turkish support, and the Israeli foreign minister has confirmed that talks were held between his government and the Druze as well as the Kurds of Syria, whom he described as having good relations with them.

But what about the Russians? One would venture to say that they are like to stay in Syria as most probably, paying guests of the new Syrian government, renting their military installations from them.

Undoubtedly, no matter how much we can be optimistic about the future of all-inclusive democratic Syria, we will always reluctantly fall back on our cognitive dissonance regarding the case of Iraq, and make the mistake of comparison with the post-Saddam era of terrorism, sectarianism an ethnic strife.

This is simply because, we forget that in Iraq there was superpower which brought down the regime and destroyed all the functioning institutions of the country favoring when religious Islamic sect over another, and supporting one ethnicity against others. While in Syria, its the Syrians themselves brought down the Ba’ath regime.

On the face of it, the rebels don’t seem to want to be the new masters of Syria and they are working very hard to protect and preserve the functioning institutions of the country, and claim their adherence to pluralism and for an all inclusive new regime.

But two important questions remain outstanding, and only time will tell how these will unfold: To what extent will there be Turkish and Israeli influence on the emerging regime, and more importantly, what would be the share of those two police stations of the country?

In other words, how will Turkey perceive the future of the Kurds in Syria, and where does Israel see its border posts with the “new” Syria?

In all likelihood, the rebels will keep their word of wanting a stable pluralist Syria, but let us not forget also, that a future spark of ethnic, regional or sectarian conflict, will very likely turn all into extremists in the country.

Dr Khairi Janbek is Jordanian commentator based in Paris.

Opinion

‘New’ Syria: What Next For The Region

CrossFireArabia
December 9, 2024

The swift fall of several Syrian cities, with little to no resistance from the Syrian regime or its allies, especially Russia, has drawn significant attention. Moscow’s inaction to prevent these rapid territorial advances underscores the shifting dynamics of the Syrian conflict.

Several factors must be considered to assess this new phase in Syria. The current developments are not merely a continuation of the initial Syrian conflict but reflect broader regional implications in the post-October 7 landscape. Israel’s strategy of “fragmenting fronts” as a counter to the concept of their unity has rendered Syria’s geographic arena an inevitable next focus. Although Syria has long been targeted by airstrikes, missile attacks, and assassinations, the current escalation coincides with the temporary pause in the conflict in Lebanon.

Damascus falls without a fight. Assad flees as HTS takes control.
Inside the unprecedented transition from militant group to national power, and what it means for Middle East stability.
My analysis for @Forbes #Syria #Damascus #MiddleEastPolicy https://t.co/QB6YwoPGbL
— Güney YILDIZ (@guneyyildiz) December 8, 2024

Syria’s geography serves as the logistical backbone for Iranian-aligned forces, including Hezbollah, making it a critical component in the regional equation. The ignition of the Syrian front aligns with Israel’s objective to disrupt the logistical corridor connecting Tehran and Beirut and secure its own strategic perimeter.

This latest shift on the ground in Syria complicates an already intricate situation. Multiple factions are mobilizing to defend their interests or expand their influence amid signs of a redrawn Syrian map. Notably, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, former leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, has garnered attention by rebranding himself under his real name, Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaa. In interviews with CNN and The New York Times, Jolani emphasized the dissolution of HTS, presenting himself as a political figure capable of engaging with international stakeholders rather than as the leader of a proscribed militant group.

Militarily, the rapid advances of fighters from Aleppo to Hama signal a looming confrontation in Homs, a pivotal city in the Syrian conflict. Homs’ strategic location connects the Syrian coast with Damascus and borders Lebanon, serving as Hezbollah’s last operational lifeline. With the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, Hezbollah faces the challenge of regrouping for what could be an existential battle. Losing this confrontation would strip Hezbollah of its regional power and relegate it to a vulnerable position within Lebanon.

The speed of these territorial shifts reflects not only the weakened state of the Syrian army but also the neutralization of its allies. Iran, once expected to be a key supporter of both Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, finds itself constrained by a U.S.-Israeli-led blockade encompassing land, sea, and air routes. Russia, on the other hand, has displayed a largely indifferent stance, underscoring its limited capacity or willingness to intervene. The sole remaining card for Iran is the deployment of Iraqi militias to Syria, though these forces are now targets of intensified American and Israeli strikes, further diminishing Tehran’s ability to influence the battlefield.

Syria's de-facto new leader, HTS 'Sheikh' Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has entered Damascus, and visited the Umayyad Mosque pic.twitter.com/Rvbys0RUK3
— Palestinian News 🗞️ (@drr_palestine) December 8, 2024

Israel, meanwhile, continues its strategy of reshaping regional security dynamics. After Gaza and Lebanon, it is now turning its focus to Syria. By leveraging the current chaos, Tel Aviv is positioning itself to establish new buffer zones deep inside Syrian territory, using the ongoing conflict to justify pre-emptive strikes on perceived threats.

Amid these developments, Jordan faces significant challenges along its borders with Syria and Iraq. The prolonged instability and the emergence of new players in the Syrian theatre require Jordan to maintain heightened vigilance. To mitigate potential threats, Amman must strengthen its military alliances and adopt proactive security measures. These strategies are necessary for the unpredictability of this phase and the diverse range of threats encircling Jordan’s borders.

Dr Amer Al Sabaileh is a university lecturer and a columnist for The Jordan Times