The Devil You Know!

By Dr Khairi Janbek

One wonders what more can be said about the tragic war in Gaza, more than the outpouring of words in the East, West and the Arab world with the habitual accusations and counter-accusations which have reduced the question of Gaza, after many other things to a mere question of semantics with the same words and same policies, while the habitual loser, the hostages and their families, and the Gazan people continue to suffer relentlessly.

Delegations keep going and coming, ceasefires agreed then broken given the impression that all what is being attempted is to keep the war going without the pangs of guilty conscience or more pragmatically, pending how public opinion shifts in western countries.

For all intents and purposes, can Israel destroy Hamas or at least break its military structure, if indeed this is the intention of Israel? If it is not, what would be the point of this war?

This is because all of what is being done is mere destruction of lives of innocent civilians who have no say when it came to “Hamas terrorism” and the subsequent Israeli retaliation. The tragi-comedy of the situation, is that Israel is fighting Hamas in order to keep a smaller version of Hamas, in the manner possibly of the devil you know is better than the one you don’t.

As for the other side of the divide, one doesn’t believe that Hamas cares about the innocent Gazans more than Israel, of course their aim is to survive, and rule for another day, because as it appears they seem to believe that Israel has no wish to occupy Gaza, and they stand a good chance to rule a diminished territory compatible with their diminished organizational size.

One wouldn’t actually be surprised knowing only too well than in the Middle East nothing is meant to be resolved; neither with peace nor with war.

Then comes the international community, President Trump’s policy towards the region fits very well with all what is going on, and it reflects this inconsistency with its own inconsistency. At one point, he wants the destruction of Hamas, then he wants a ceasefire and wants the war to stop, with the only logical demand of wanting what everyone else wants, the release of the hostages.

But even on this path one wonders for how long he will be able to keep his attention span on the question. The EU has its twists and turns, apart from’Ireland and Spain, the governments of Europe have their own contradictions with each other and subject to the fluctuations of public opinion, nevertheless, there will be plenty of rhetoric but the same policies will continue.

Ironically, the only side which is not counted on, and the only side which seems reluctant to get involved actively, save for holding hostage release negotiations, is the Arab side.

One firmly believes, against common wisdom, that only the Arabs can convince Hamas to surrender its weapons, and manage a post-Hamas Gaza, guaranteeing security for Israel and start the reconstruction efforts for Gaza. It is only after that, a permanent solution can be thought of.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris, France.

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Israeli Media: ‘Beware of Hamas Forces’

Israel is failing to achieve its objectives in Gaza. This is the view of many in the Israeli media. They say that despite the long-war, now in its 18-month, the Palestinian resistance are still able to carry out qualitative operations against Israeli soldiers.

Hamas reorganized, prepares the traps

According to Israel’s Channel 14 the reality in the Gaza Strip requires a profound change in the Israeli combat doctrine, adding that recruiting forces, no matter how good, is still insufficient. Hamas has “rebuilt itself, prepared explosive traps, and recruited forces,” the Channel stated.

Because of this, speakers in Channel 14 went on to state that the Israeli army must control positions inside Gaza and maintain military control over the area to prevent Hamas from achieving any success.

It noted the incident over the weekend, in which two soldiers were killed and another from the Yahalom Unit seriously wounded, is an example of what awaits the Israeli army in Gaza.

Conceal the erosion of its forces!

The Maariv Israeli daily asserted the resumption of the war on Gaza has not achieved the desired results, as military pressure has failed to secure the release of prisoners.

It acknowledged that the current Israeli political thinking and military performance have not succeeded on the ground in Gaza. It added the failure to return all prisoners is tantamount to a defeat for the Israeli army in the battle for Gaza.

Regarding Israel’s readiness to expand the war, Maariv stated that the introduction of Israeli forces into Gaza is complex because of the presence of booby-trapped tunnel openings, which could harm prisoners due to intense fire.

It added that Hamas understands the limitations of the Israeli army’s power in a large-scale maneuver.

It emphasized that the Israeli army is trying to conceal the erosion of its forces and equipment from the public, noting that the significant erosion in the Israeli army is not only in combat power but also in combat equipment according to Jo24.

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Fires Rage in Israel

Fires are raging in Israel. Flames have started in the West Jerusalem hills and are feared to be creeping into northern and mass Israel with around 119 fire crews, 10 firefighting planes, and a helicopter deployed to attempt to extinguish the blaze according to The Jerusalem Post.

Israel has asked for international help especially from countries like Italy, Greece, Croatia, Cyprus and Bulgaria to attempt to put down the raging fires that are spreading because of high winds. Later reports, and with the inability to contain the fires, Israel called for more help from England, France, Czech Republic, Sweden, Argentina, Spain, North Macedonia, and Azerbaijan.

The wild fires that started, Wednesday, are trending on the social media with images and videos of what are seen as apocalyptic scenes never seen before in Israel. The blazes, starting from the hills of western Jerusalem have spread to the areas of Tel Aviv in the north with up to eight Israeli municipalities affected with one blogger simply saying “Israel is burning.”

Reports show that people on the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv Highway abandoning their cars and running across the wilderness, anywhere, away from the raging fires consuming forests and natural habitats. Reports also suggest that 10,000 Israeli have been evacuated by over-worked Israeli firefighters who fear the battle will be long.

The highway as well as trains between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have since been closed because of the consuming danger.

As soon as they started, Israeli government officials quickly declared a national state of emergency as raging fires spread to settlements and military bases near Jerusalem with soldiers caught in the blazes with reports that blazes raged in 29 locations such as Nataf, Eshtaol, Ramat Raziel, Giv’at Ye’arim, and Kisalon.

The fires from Jerusalem have also moved south and west due to the raging winds and weather conditions with the Israeli army being deployed to assist firefighting teams as the fires latched on to cars and other vehicles. New blazes have been reported to as far away as in Ashkelon, Ashdod and its port and bordering to the so-called Gaza envelope the territory that houses Jewish settlements and military basis.

The speed winds in Israel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming hours and days with Israeli hospitals recording 12 injuries so far due to smoke inhalation and burns. For the first time in 77 years, Israeli local councils have canceled so-called Independence Day celebrations that is when Israel was created in 1948 on Palestinians lands.

Nobody really knows how the fires have started while Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir rushed to accuse local Palestinians of arson but this is hearsay.

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Rehabilitating Iran?

By Dr Khairi Janbek

All eyes now are on the new game in the Middle East: The US-Iran negotiations. One would say the aim here is far more advanced than the Iranian nuclear programme when the agreement was torn up by US President Donald Trump himself who was more concerned with details which would eliminate all threats against Israel, and would that in all liklihood, transform the whole region.

It seems that in this early intense stage, the ambiance is for reaching an amicable agreement through the recognition that no matter of the outcome, there will be nothing divisive. Trump will continue creating crisis just for the sake of showing that he can control those crises, and act in the manner of the old Arabic adage, for neither the wolf to die nor the sheep to parish. While for the Iranians, they have everything to gain from a positive outcome to those negotiations.

Of course, the Iranian nuclear programme is an important component of these negotiations, and most often than not, at times Iran and at times its enemies, exaggerate the potential of the country to making nuclear weapons for political purposes.

Yet the fact remains that despite the possibility of Iran being still far from creating weapon-grade enrichment programme, if carried on unchecked, it is inevitable that at one point in the future it will have nuclear weapons. Consequently the fact remains, the onus is on Iran to prove credibly that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, and accept periodically, the checks of the international nuclear inspectors.

The other dimension is the relationship of Iran with its proxies in the region, which falls under the category of threats to Israel. Well, and under the circumstances, Iran has to decide the reasons for its continued alliances with its proxies – whether such alliances served their purpose, or have become a burden than an asset – or if it can maintain these alliances with definte no threat commitment Israel but with political clout in Arab world affairs, which incidentally may not seem such a bad idea for Trump.

After all eliminating the threat against Israel is the primary concern, while at the same time his rich Arab allies buy their protection from him, a protection which Iran cannot dare to test.

But what is in it for Iran to reach an accord with the United States? One would say plenty. For a start it’s reintegration back into the region. After all it kept claiming it’s nuclear programme, is in reality, a peaceful programme and Tehran never had the intention of enriching weapons grade uranium.

Well, and with an accord it can now easily prove, and then can start dealing with the issue of not being a threat to Israel by either dissociating itself from these proxies which have become costly to its image and/or work in their transformation to political, unarmed forces and parts of the political structures wherever they exist in the Arab region.

Essentially if the sanctions against Iran are lifted and its assets are no longer frozen, Iran will be able to assume a very strong position in the Middle East region based on its economic strength and its enormous trade potential. In fact, Trump knows that any military action he takes against the Iranian nuclear installations, and any possible response will not have a decisive result. Therefore, the most likely decisive result will be, a new Iran, big in the region as well as moreover, that will owe him a favour.

In the meantime , we are still at the very early stage to even try to guess, but we can safely assume, that no matter how those negotiations proceed, nothing tangible is likely to happen before the visit of President Trump to the Gulf region in May.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris, France

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