Evacuations: Where Are The Displaced Expected to Go?

The illegal evacuation orders that the Israeli army has been enforcing in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, and Mawasi al-Qarara, west of Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip, have raised fear of additional forced displacement and an attack on an area in which nearly two million people are crammed.

The Israeli army has continued its pattern of issuing illegal evacuation orders in the Strip. One such order was issued recently and targets all civilians, including those who have already been forcibly displaced, who are living in Blocks 129 and 130 in the area of Al-Mahta and Deir al-Balah.

This area is home to 10s of thousands of people and is close to the Aqsa Martyrs Hospital. The Israeli orders, along with earlier ones that targeted residents of eastern and southern Deir al-Balah, show that Israel is continuing to expand its attack on Deir al-Balah, which is home to one million people, the majority of whom have previously been displaced to the centre of the Strip from northern or southern Gaza.

Nearly half of the people living in the Gaza Strip are currently living in Deir al-Balah. They had been forced to flee their homes and relocate there from locations across the entire Gaza Strip, particularly from northern Gaza and Rafah. Those sheltering in Deir al-Balah travelled there under Israeli bombing from the air, land, and sea, and Israel’s deliberate destruction of entire residential areas, hospitals, shelter centres, and public and private civilian facilities. Now, the military evacuation orders are asking residents of Deir al-Balah to move south, and targeting Deir al-Balah and the southern town of Al-Mawasi with illegal evacuation orders and bombing.

The Israeli army’s targeting of large areas within what it refers to as the “humanitarian zone” with illegal evictions, as has occurred in Mawasi al-Qarara and Deir al-Balah, suggests that Israel is trying to squeeze nearly two million people into an increasingly smaller area, until the population density reaches globally unprecedented levels, and displaced people are unable to even find a place to pitch their tents.

Given that Deir al-Balah is home to numerous national and international humanitarian organisations, the intensifying attack on the city raises the possibility that some humanitarian efforts may cease, putting Gaza Strip residents at further existential risk.

Since the Israeli army had previously declared that it had finished its military operations in the Gaza Strip, the expansion of operations towards Deir al-Balah and the increasing systematic destruction of Rafah’s residential areas as well as Khan Yunis’ Hamad City and Qarara areas is evidence of Israel’s ongoing quest to completely eradicate any Palestinian life there, whether now or in the future.

Israeli planes struck a number of Gaza City structures on Tuesday, including the Al-Jazeera Hotel, in spite of the fact that military operations had supposedly ended there and the majority of the area’s buildings had already been destroyed during ten months of incursions and aerial bombardment.

The Israeli army is still bombing makeshift shelters inside Gaza City schools. Just two days ago, it bombed the Mustafa Hafez School, which was home to thousands of displaced people. Twelve people were killed and numerous others were injured in the attack. Since the beginning of August, 11 schools have been bombed and destroyed, resulting in the deaths of displaced individuals.

There is no possible military need or justification for bombing and demolishing schools above the heads of the displaced people who are sheltering inside them, nor for expanding military operations in the aforementioned areas.

Observing the Israeli strategy of bombing followed by illegal evacuation orders shows that there is a deliberate policy in place to deny security to Palestinians across the entire Gaza Strip by temporarily depriving them of shelter or stability. This policy consists of continuing to bomb the entire Strip and concentrating on targeting shelter centres, such as UNRWA schools.

Israel’s systematic policy of targeting the civilian population of the Gaza Strip is prohibited by international humanitarian law. Yet, Israel continues to intensify its bombing of shelter and displacement centres, targeting areas specifically designated as humanitarian spaces, and denying these people any stability, even temporarily, thereby carrying out long-term forced displacement and demolishing all necessities of life as part of its genocide that has been ongoing since 7 October 2023.

The ongoing Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip suggest that efforts are being made to maintain and strengthen the occupation’s hold on the besieged enclave. This is further demonstrated by the announcement made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has said that he will not leave Philadelphi Corridor or Netzarim Axis despite enormous pressure to do so.

This is all taking place following a green light expressed in United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s declaration that the US will not tolerate a long-term Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip; in other words, the US has approved a short-term occupation without putting a time limit on it. Notably, the US approved $20 billion in arms sales to Israel earlier this month.

Israel’s military actions gravely breach international humanitarian law—particularly the principles of distinction, proportionality, and military necessity—and have a negative impact on all Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip.

As part of their international obligations, all nations must impose strong sanctions on Israel and halt all forms of military, political, and financial assistance. This includes immediately cutting off all arms transfers to Israel, including export permits and military aid; otherwise, these nations will be complicit in and partners in the Israeli crimes committed in the Gaza Strip, including the crime of genocide.

Without US cover, cooperation, and silence, the crime of genocide would not have continued and escalated. The majority of the world’s nations must accept their responsibilities and take concrete action to protect civilians, halt the mass killing, and stop the crime of genocide from being completed.

Since the crimes committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip are international crimes under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, it is imperative that the Court move forward with its investigation into all crimes committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip, broaden its investigation into individual criminal responsibility for these crimes in order to include all those responsible, and issue arrest warrants against them.

Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Hormuz: Mines, Strategy or Business?

By Ismail Al Sharif

The US thought that assassinating senior Iranian leaders would bring down the regime, but this did not happen.

Iran’s inability to match American military and technological superiority led it to adopt a number of strategies, most notably what is known in the military literature as the Mosaic Defense Doctrine. This doctrine is based on dismantling its military central command into small, independent units, each operating autonomously and making its own decisions without consulting the higher command.

From Day 1 of the war, Iran adopted this approach. However, the lack of coordination and the disintegration of the military hierarchy led to chaos and confusion which affected the management of its operations. The situation became contradictory; the politicians were declaring one thing and military commanders acting in a completely different manner and direction.

This was reflected on the ground through extremely dangerous behavior. Military units, using small boats, indiscriminately laid naval mines to deter enemy ships. However, the lack of coordination here backfired resulting in the Iranian navy officers losing their ability to pinpoint the coordinates of the mines they planted in the Hormuz Strait with no accurate maps or reliable records. Some of these mines may have been completely displaced by the currents of the sea. This was further complicated by the fact that these mines were not primitive but far from it; they were sophisticated and able to detect sound and pressure, and thus able to track the passage of large ships and submarines, and detonate automatically upon approach.

However, mine removal is not easy task, as history shows. Even today, news reports continue to surface of mines in various parts of the Kingdom, half a century after the last war. Indeed, mines from World War II are still being discovered on land and at sea.

Even with Britain’s pledge to remove mines after the war, and despite possessing the latest specialized technologies in this field, the task remains arduous, protracted, and uncertain. The specter of a sudden explosion looms, reminding us that the danger of mines is not easily eliminated.

But the decisive factor in weakening navigation in the Hormuz Strait is not primarily military, but rather material. Commercial ships are massive investments, with some vessels valued at around $150 million and their cargoes potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, a single mine explosion can cause catastrophic losses to both the ship and its cargo. Consequently, no ship sails without insurance; ports, banks, and shipping companies refuse to deal with uninsured vessels, and without insurance, global shipping grinds to a halt.

Herein lies the real surprise: the fate of the Strait is no longer dependent on Iran’s pronouncements regarding its opening or closure, but has effectively fallen into the hands of insurance companies. With the escalating risks, insurance costs have skyrocketed; “war risk” premiums have jumped from approximately 0.25% of the ship’s value to nearly 1% or more, exceeding a massive $1 million per voyage. And it doesnt stop there; seven major insurance companies announced their complete withdrawal, issuing notices of coverage cancellation just within just 72 hours.

And here comes the decisive turning point: Once the insurance coverage is lost, maritime traffic ground to a halt. During this 39-war, ships have effectively ceased sailing with the number of vessels transiting the Strait plummeting by more than 80%. Around 150 oil tankers remain anchored offshore, and major shipping companies suspended their operations, as if this vital artery of global trade had been frozen by a financial, rather than a military decision.

The US government attempted to provide alternative insurance coverage, but this effort failed and US President Trump’s pronouncements regarding mine removal were inconsistent with the reality.

The issue of reopening the Strait has once again become a prominent topic, but the deeper truth is that its fate is no longer determined by political statements or military actions, but rather by the decisions of insurance experts. Even if the war were to end immediately, ships would not resume sailing right away. Insurance companies need time to reassess the level of risk, and they base their decisions not on political logic, but on cold, hard numbers and rigorous data.

This article was originally published in Arabic in Addustour daily newspaper and republished in English in crossfirearabia.com.

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Analysis: Middle East in Iranian Eyes

CROSSFIREARABIA – During the Israeli Genocide on Gaza Benjamin Netanyahu used to stand up and say with a smirk: ‘We are changing the face of the Middle East’.

Upbeat about murdering the women and children of Gaza from the late 2023 onwards, he was talking about the further normalization of the Arab world as established by the Abraham Accords, establish an economic order under Israel’s hegemony and end Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis while clipping the wings of Iran.

Of course, Netanyahu’s face soon changed, albeit two-and-a-half years later, when Iran and Hezbollah were forced into a war generated by Israel and the USA on 29 February, 2026. While Iran got a battering, in the next 39 days, US ships and military bases in the Gulf and Jordan received such a hammering that soon forced US President Donald Trump to plead for a ceasefire.

In this war, Israel received a great shock, being attacked literally on an hourly and daily basis with its buildings, military basis and infrastructure taking directs hits while its millions of people living in underground shelters around-the-clock. 

To use a metaphor Tel Aviv’s nose was being rubbed in the sand in a way that has never been imagined by Netanyahu nor his ilk of extremist right wing fascist politicians who started calling for the expulsion of Gaza Palestinians from their homeland ever since the Israeli genocide on them since 7 October, 2023. 

Today’s Netanyahu’s vision of a new Middle East has been drastically changed, thrown in his face in fact! Iran’s political stances and its missiles have changed things around. The US and Israel were not able to change the current Iranian government in Iran despite killing the country’s spiritual leader Ali Khameini, have not ended the country’s nuclear program nor ended its ballistic missiles. 

So what is Netanyahu talking about? Yes, today there is clearly a new Middle East emerging but it is not according to Netanyahu’s eyes nor his wishful thinking. If anybody should be ‘celebrating’ it is clearly Iran, it’s government, revolutionary guard, its Generals, officers and soldiers who are very probably changing the face of the Middle East and may even be setting the map of how the region should look like in form from now on. 

From day one of the war, Trump started running scared despite his outlandish mutterings! He came to realize quickly that Netanyahu and the Mossad pushed him against Iran, convincing him it would be an easy fight and the government there would fall like a pack of cards. Trump since, started kicking himself as he finally fell to Netanyahu’s squinted prism to go after that country. Netanyahu kept pushing for this wild step since the 1990s through previous US presidents from Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

But they did not listen to him however, Trump fell into the trap and maybe this is why he is now privately kicking himself because he basically sent the globe into an economic tailspin and soaring exorbitant oil prices, a potentially deep recession and financial chaos.

In this war Netanyahu may have shot himself in the foot. His alliance with the USA  juxtaposed by Hezbollah whose fighters laid dormant since November 2024 when it stopped firing at Tel Aviv was a big surprise to the latter. Israel had previously thought that Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire out of weakness and thus their entry into military action was unexpected. Hezbollah kept the military pressure on for six more days after Washington signed off with Iran and beating the Israeli army into submission.

On day 46 Trump intervened calling on the Israeli army to stop fighting Hezbollah. He had ulterior motive, he wanted to extract a normalization agreement between the Lebanese government and Israel; their ambassadors had just started meeting in Washington at the invitation of the US State Department in an upbeat atmosphere and inline for a final agreement to establish an accord between Tel Aviv and Beirut alongside the ones signed between Israel and four Arab states, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco starting September 2020. 

Thus a normalization agreement would be a feather in Trump’s cap, a sort of prestige move for the US president. But his pressure may have been seen as a life-saving formula. Trump was saving Israel from Netanyahu’s insistence that his army to keep fighting in southern Lebanon. Its fight has already cost Israel at least 13 soldiers who were killed, more than 500 injured and more than 100 topnotch Merkava tanks destroyed. Israeli towns and cities were being hammered from the north.

Israel was being beaten from the north. Its towns, cities and military bases again were wide-open to incoming rockets from Lebanon and were not being deflected. It was a war that had to be stopped. This time Trump insisted. If a ceasefire with Iran was going to stick, then Netanyahu had to be forced to make his soldiers stop their fight in Lebanon. 

Thus for the time being Netanyahu’s hand lie in check. Yet in the long run his dream for a new Middle East with Israel playing a central part in it may have been halted. After all, no Gulf or even Arab states now would think of normalizing with Israel despite the fact that Lebanon is being forced into it, but even for then its early days.

Netanyahu can kiss goodbye his long-life attempt to sign a normalization accord with Saudi Arabia for instance, a kingdom which is seen as a “major puller” in the Arab and Muslim world. It has already said that normalization is off the table with Israel. The Gulf has been disappointed in this war because it showed that America were not able to protect them from Iranian missiles that targeted their infrastructure as well the US military bases strewn across the region.

Netanyahu has lost on the economic level as well. His country stands economically devastated, army in ruins as admitted to by the Israeli chief of staff Eyal Zamir, and the dream of opening an ‘economic Middle East’ is definitely dashed for the time being.

America, as Trump knows, is left to pick up the pieces of a tattered world caused by war any choas in a region that is vital to the global system.

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