What Will The Future Hold For Palestine in 2025?

In 2024, there were a host of startling developments occurring in the Middle East and the wider world that impacted Palestine, most of them unforeseen 12 months ago: the continuation of the unrelenting Israeli genocide in Gaza, the battlefield defeat of Hezbollah and the devastation in Lebanon, the overthrow of Bashar Assad in Syria, the isolation of Iran, the election of Donald Trump, and a series of seminal rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC).

All of these seismic events make the assignment of imagining what Palestine’s future will be in 2025 a precarious task. Yet, with caution thrown to the wind, we can make some educated guesses on six leading features.


Leading scenarios for Palestine’s future

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency will certainly encourage Israel’s accelerating subjugation of the Palestinians. His major appointments on the Middle East – including his secretary of state, his ambassador to Israel, and his two regional envoys – are all diplomatic gifts to Israel’s far-right nationalist government. His political instincts are all about respecting the strong and disparaging the weak. The only restraint that Trump may impose on Israel would result from his quest for a substantive deal with Saudi Arabia, which is publicly demanding a credible path to Palestinian statehood.

A genuine Palestinian state is further away than ever. In 2025, more Palestinian land will be confiscated, more illegal Israeli settlements will be built, and settler violence, already at record levels, will only intensify. While Trump might restrict Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from formally annexing parts of the West Bank, de facto Israeli annexation will continue unabated. The ability of the Palestinian Authority to shape events in its favor will likely shrink even further. As for the comatose peace process, the Palestinians long ago arrived at a traffic intersection, and the red light never changed. It remains red today, its only color.

The genocidal war on Gaza will finally end with a formal ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, and some Palestinian detainees. However, the unimaginable toll of deaths and suffering among the Palestinian civilians in Gaza will continue, as starvation, infectious diseases, a decimated economy, and a devastated landscape afflict the population. Hamas won’t be completely defeated, but it has suffered a grievous blow in the short run. Israel will push hard to build settlements in the north and for clan warlords to run the rest of Gaza, which Trump might allow. Another great test will be the raising of the $40-60 billion needed for the reconstruction of Gaza; this will create tension between Trump and his Gulf states allies, who will resist paying the lion’s share of the consequences of a war they opposed.

Will the international community face the Palestine issue in 2025?

Respecting Palestine, the United Nations will face some of its most perilous challenges in 2025. The one-year deadline set by the General Assembly for Israel to completely end its occupation of Palestine arrives next September, with Israel and the US committed to defying the obligation. In addition, Israel – with Trump’s backing – is seeking to dismantle UNRWA, the UN agency that delivers education, health, and social services to Palestinian refugees in the Levant. The challenge for Europe and the Arab world will be whether they will defend the UN, its core commitment to successfully resolving the oldest item on its political agenda (Palestine), and the preservation of its largest agency.

Israel’s diplomatic isolation will continue, even as its relationship with its superpower patron will deepen. Its outlier status at the United Nations – particularly at the General Assembly and the Human Rights Council – will see even more lopsided votes against its 57-year-old occupation, its denial of Palestinian self-determination, and its abuse of international law. The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will make him politically radioactive, with heads of state and government that have signed the 1998 Rome Statute refusing to meet him. Pressure will grow within Europe to rethink various trade and cooperation agreements with Israel as a reaction to the war and its horrendous humanitarian consequences.


Role of international law more important for Palestine than ever

The role of international law in pronouncing on the question of Palestine will become even more momentous in 2025. After the signature rulings by the ICJ and the ICC in 2024, we are likely to see a growing movement to insist upon a rights-based approach to peacemaking in Palestine, replacing the discredited (but still very much alive) realpolitik approach of the Oslo process.

The momentum created by the recent genocide reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch will continue to echo through UN corridors and foreign ministries. But there are also headwinds: Republicans in the US Senate are determined to sanction the ICC for issuing the arrest warrant against Netanyahu, meaning that the viability of the court will require a stout defense by the 124 members of the Rome Statute, particularly from Europe.

As we learned from the past year, there will almost certainly be unexpected surprises in 2025. And while there will continue to be dark times for the Palestinians in the year ahead, the war in Gaza has also sparked a global movement of solidarity – particularly among the young – that will continue to inspire courageous thinking and bold acts. Its lasting impact should never be underestimated.

Michael Lynk he author is a professor emeritus of law at Western University, London, Ontario, Canada. He served as the 7th United Nations special rapporteur for human rights in the occupied Palestinian territory between 2016 and 2022. Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu’s editorial policy.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Occupation and Israeli Violence

By Najla M. Shahwan

In the context of Israel’s unlawful occupation and its imposition of a system of apartheid against all Palestinians, and against the backdrop of its ongoing genocide in Gaza, Israeli authorities have been recently accelerating its violations of international human rights and humanitarian law in pursuing its policy of ethnic cleansing in the occupied West Bank.

This policy has been implemented through the forcible displacement of Palestinians in refugee camps, Bedouin and herding communities in the West Bank, as well as the creation and expansion of settlements , acts that amount to the war crime of unlawful deportation and transfer.

Palestine’s Permanent Mission to the UN on June 12 sounded the alarm over the newest largest wave of forced displacement of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

During a briefing held by the Palestine’s Permanent Mission to the UN in Geneva, Palestine’s Permanent Representative, ambassador Ibrahim Khraishi, warned of the unprecedented deterioration of conditions in the occupied West Bank amid the upsurge of colonist attacks, colonial settlement expansion, and the ongoing military offensive on the refugee camps of Jenin, Tulkarm and Nur Shams, which has triggered the largest wave of forced displacement in the West Bank since 1967, alongside widespread destruction of infrastructure, homes and civilian facilities.

He stressed that the West Bank was witnessing a dangerous escalation at the political, economic and humanitarian levels due to Israel’s unbridled annexation and settler-colonialism policies, arrests, extrajudicial killings, colonist violence, and the continued withholding of Palestinian clearance revenues.

On his part, UNRWA representatives outlined the latest developments in the northern West Bank, pointing to escalating destruction and the forced displacement of more than 45,000 Palestinians, attacks on infrastructure and medical facilities, and Israeli measures aimed at demolishing the Agency’s premises in occupied Jerusalem.

Israeli authorities have been accelerating annexation through a state-driven campaign of ethnic cleansing targeting Palestinian Bedouin and herding communities in Area C of the occupied West Bank, while committing the crime against humanity of forcible transfer.

The Israeli government has made formal annexation an explicit policy objective .

It has accelerated settlement expansion and land grabs, increased financial and logistical support to settlements, and has armed settlers, thereby enabling a brutal state-sanctioned campaign of settler violence and of forced displacement of Palestinians from Area C.

This area constitutes over 60 per cent of the occupied West Bank and has long been central to Israel’s efforts to control land and demographics, given its natural resources, vital grazing and agricultural land.

Communities in Area C have been facing growing risks of displacement and settlement expansion.

The Jordan Valley and South Hebron Hills have been areas under particular pressure where residents have faced repeated raids, demolitions and damage to infrastructure. Restrictions on access to land and essential services have also increased pressure on these communities and State -backed settler violence and home demolitions have forcibly displaced thousands of Palestinians in, emptying out over 100 villages entirely.

In the Gaza Strip , Israel’s ongoing military operations and evacuation orders despite the ceasefire have displaced roughly 90 per cent of the population (approximately 1.9 million people), with much of the civilian infrastructure destroyed to create long-term buffer zones.

Families have been displaced from their neighborhoods many times – and the last time they were uprooted, they were homeless for more than six months.

Israel’s ‘voluntary emigration’ plan from Gaza is its latest attempt to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from the Strip .

Israel’s defense minister has advanced plans to remove Palestinians from the Gaza Strip through “voluntary emigration”.

Israel Katz said late last May that the plans would take place “at the proper time and in the proper manner”.

Israel’s security cabinet approved a proposal by Katz in March to establish a directorate within his ministry to facilitate “migration” from the enclave.

Despite the Israeli genocide in Gaza, which has killed more than 73,000 Palestinians and wrought utter destruction on the coastal enclave, the vast majority of Palestinians there say they will never abandon their home.

Proposals for the removal of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip have been repeatedly raised during the course of the Israeli genocide.

Though some ministers have framed the move to remove Palestinians as a voluntary option, other Israeli officials have been explicitly calling for forced expulsion, which is a war crime.

Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention prohibits an occupying power from forcibly transferring , deporting or displacing occupied people from an occupied territory while the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court names deportation by “expulsion or other coercive acts” a crime against humanity.

Ninety-two per cent of Gaza’s homes have been destroyed or damaged. None of its 37 hospitals is fully functional. Aid trucks cut from 4,200 a week to 590 when Israel sealed the crossings in February, families burning trash to cook whatever arrives, children frozen to death last winter for lack of shelter materials Israel would not allow in.

The Yellow Line, the boundary of Israeli control drawn by the ceasefire, keeps moving west, swallowing water points and clinics, with Palestinians killed for approaching a line that approaches them. More than 986 Palestinians have been killed since the “ceasefire” was signed in October 2025.

Amid the expanding Israeli military incursions record levels of settler violence, and impending annexations , the overwhelming majority of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are fiercely resisting displacement , viewing it as a permanent severing from their homeland .

The writer is a Palestinian author, researcher and freelance journalist and contributed this article to the Jordan Times

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Arabism From The Skies?

By Capt. Osama Shaqman

Ten years ago, I ended my official flight, but I didn’t sever my connection with the skies above. When a pilot retires he doesn’t bid farewell to the sky; rather, he carries it in his memory, in his silence, in his gaze upon the earth, and in his understanding of life, people, borders, and destiny.

For over 40 years, I roared above cities, seas, deserts, and mountains. I saw the earth from a height unseen by eyes bound by the earth, and I saw the Arab world stretching from the ocean to the gulf, separated not so much by mountains or seas, but by politics, disputes, fear, and mistrust. From the skies, borders appeared as silent, lifeless lines, but on the ground, they were transformed into high walls separating brother from brother, and Arab from Arab.

From the cockpit

From the cockpit, I learned that an airplane doesn’t reach its destination through loud voices, nor through mere desire, nor through emotional impulse. It arrives when there is a clear destination, a precise plan, a harmonious crew, vigilant monitoring, mutual trust, and discipline that knows no improvisation. Likewise, nations don’t rise with slogans, nor do they weather storms with speeches, neither do they enter the future with divided decisions, conflicting visions, and a fear of their own disunity that outweighs their own weakness.

The higher I ascended in the skies, the more I felt that the Arab world is vaster than our disagreements, that Arab history is deeper than our crises, and that what unites us is far greater than what divides us. A single language resonates in our hearts, a long history of glory and suffering, a shared religion, civilization, culture, and destiny, and peoples who share similar joys and sorrows, dignity and hope. Yet, an Arab still sometimes needs a long journey to reach his brother, the borders between us remain harsher than the distances, and visas and barriers continue to turn our one nation into scattered islands in a single sea.

Today, as I look back on the years from the vantage point of life and experience, I ask myself: When will we break free from this predicament? When will we realize that division is no longer our destiny, but a costly choice? When will we understand that the world does not wait for the weak, and that nations that fail to unite around their own interests will find themselves vulnerable to the interests of others?

We have seen many Western nations unite after long wars, after bloodshed, conflict, and devastation. They learned from their pain, opening borders, unifying markets, bringing universities closer together, and facilitating the movement of people, ideas, and goods. Yet we, possessing bonds what others lack, still hesitate before taking a step that should be natural: which is that for every Arab to feel at home in any Arab land.

I am not advocating for the abolition of homelands; for every homeland is a memory, a dignity, a flag, and a legacy of martyrs. But I call for a broader Arab horizon, for unity of interests, economic integration, educational continuity, research cooperation, open borders, and respect for the sovereignty of each nation, without this sovereignty becoming isolation or estrangement.

Two wings of a single plane

Algeria remains Algeria, Egypt remains Egypt, Jordan remains Jordan, Morocco remains Morocco, Iraq remains Iraq, the Levant remains the Levant, and the Gulf remains the Gulf; but the entire Arab nation can be the two wings of a single plane, not scattered parts of a structure that has lost its ability to take off.

From the skies, I learned that the greatest danger is not the storm, but the loss of direction. A plane may face fierce winds, may fly through dark clouds, may be rocked in the heart of the sky, but it survives if the compass remains working and if the pilot knows where he wants to land. A nation that loses its compass, however, may possess wealth, population, and history, but it remains adrift in a turbulent sky without a clear destination.

Our compass today must be clear: Knowledge before noise, action before slogans, dignity before fear, unity before division, and humanity before narrow calculations. No nation can rise without investing in the minds of its children, and no people can progress while limiting their horizons to the dreams of their youth.

O Arab nation, we have waited too long in the hall of history. It is time for us to leave our seats of waiting and allow the plane of renaissance to take off. We lack neither fuel, for our resources are abundant; nor a runway, for our land is vast; nor history, for our past is glorious. What we lack is resolve, courage, and the confidence that we can be together without one of us negating the other.

Open the borders between minds first, and the borders between nations will follow. Open universities to Arab students, markets to Arab labor, hospitals to Arab people, libraries to Arab researchers, airports to Arab travelers, and hearts to Arab trust. A nation that fears its own children will not be respected by others, and a nation that closes its doors to itself will not enter the future through its widest gates.

I retired from flying 10 years ago, but I did not retire from dreaming. I still believe that this nation is capable of rising if it is true to itself, rises above its petty differences, and understands that the heavens do not recognize the borders created by fear.

From the memory of 40 years in the skies, I say with the sincerity of age and experience: The Arab nation is not poor in potential, but rather poor in resolve. It is not weak in its essence, but rather weakened by fragmentation. It is not incapable of taking off, but it needs someone to unify its direction, awaken its confidence, and open the runway to the future.

So when will we leave the land of division?

When will we break the chains of fear?

When will we open our borders as the heavens have opened their gates to us?

A nation created to have two wings cannot remain with one wing broken. The land I saw from the skies is one, and hearts deserve to see it as well: One in dignity, one in destiny, one in the dream.

This article was first published in the Jo24  Arabic website and reprinted in crossfirearabia.com.

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