Al-Duwairi: Hamas, Jabalia and Fall of 28 Israeli Soldiers

Retired military, strategic expert Major-General Fayez al-Duwairi said the military operations carried out by the Qassam Brigades recently in Jabalia camp, north Gaza, resulted in the deaths and injuries of at least 28 Israeli soldiers, while the occupation army only announced one or two injuries.

The Hamas military wing, the Qassam Brigades in footage, Saturday showed the destruction of seven Israeli military vehicles in the Jabalia camp; including the targeting of Merkava tanks, military bulldozers, and an armored personnel carrier with shells and missiles from close range.

Injured but fighting

Al-Duwairi explained on Al Jazeera the Qassam footage included several remarkable qualitative operations. He noted what was most surprising was the operation made by one of the injured fighters by targeting a Merkava tank using an explosive charge.

He added: “The first [camera] shot has more than one dimension, as the fighter is talking about his injury, which appeared to be in his hand, prompting him to switch from using a launcher to using a suicide charge, which was more primitive than the previous charges.”

The military expert stressed that what the injured fighter did was an “extraordinary act”, explaining that “no ordinary person or even a trained person can do such an act, especially with an injury to his hand and to get to a tank equipped with all capabilities and potentials”.

In detailing the human losses, Al-Duwairi explained that the armored personnel carrier carries 11 soldiers, and the tank carries a minimum of 4 soldiers with the possibility of the number reaching 10 soldiers, noting the operations included targeting thress tanks, two bulldozers and an armored personnel carrier.

Al-Duwairi pointed out to the nature of the area in which the confrontations took place. He stressed it is a completely rubbled destroyed area were fighters are emerge, adding: “They are a group of fighters, if they had reinforcements the occupation army would not have been able to confront them”.

He pointed out in this situation the large mechanisms of the occupation army “become blindspots”, making their targets possible, but reaching them remains extremely difficult due to the presence of the “quadcopter” aircraft covering the skies of the area.

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Expert: Israeli Soldiers in State of ‘War Fatigue’

Military expert Brigadier-General Mohammed Al-Samadi said the killing of five Israeli soldiers in two separate incidents in the Gaza Strip confirms the resistance’s exploitation of the rubble and debris of houses to launch sniper operations against occupation soldiers.

Al-Samadi added Israel imposes a blackout and censorship on its real losses in Gaza, as the operations indicate they are much greater than what is announced, pointing out the morale of the soldiers has declined significantly, because they have come to realize the futility of the war they are fighting.

The military expert cited talk about reducing the periods of service of the occupation forces, saying it confirms attempts to reduce cases of evasion from conscription and perhaps complete abstention from service due to frustration and “war fatigue”.

According to Al-Samadi, the resistance does not need large numbers of fighters to launch its operations, while the occupation army needs entire battalions and brigades in order to continue the war.

He pointed out the danger of the Israeli soldiers’ reluctance to go to war “at this dangerous stage in the life of the state”, and said that it reflects a lack of faith in the political leadership and the usefulness of the war, in addition to the fact that last October was the bloodiest month in the ranks of the occupation army.

Reducing period of service

The Israeli occupation army decided to reduce the period of reserve service from an average of 20 weeks for each soldier to only 9 weeks after the unusual decrease in the number of applicants for service, according to Israeli media.

Israeli media revealed a significant decrease in the number of reserve soldiers joining the Israeli army as a result of the government pushing a bill that allows the continued exemption of religious Jews from military service, as well as due to fatigue.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that the army is concerned about a decrease of between 15% and 25% in reserve service, and explained that this feeling emerged in recent weeks in the combat brigades in the Gaza Strip, and on the northern front – during the war on Lebanon – stressing that it affects the army’s operational decisions according to Al Jazeera.

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Trump Signals New Arab-Israeli ‘Normalization’  

President of the Kuwaiti-based Reconnaissance Center for Research and Studies Abdul Aziz Al-Anjari, confirmed Donald Trump’s return to the White House next January will pave the way for the implementation of a pre-prepared plan to bring about radical changes in the Middle East.

Normalization

Al-Anjari, a member of the National Press Club in Washington, told Quds Press this plan seeks “to push towards almost complete normalization in the region, and to form a ‘new Middle East’ to strengthen Israeli hegemony, and establish the role of the United States as the main guarantor of this trend.”

Al-Anjari pointed out that “the plans are proceeding, despite the hopes of peoples demanding justice, and international human rights movements supporting Palestinian rights, but decisions are ultimately taken at the level of governments, most of which have shown a tendency towards greater rapprochement with Israel, and adopting a security vision that excludes all forms of armed resistance, which governments consider a threat to stability in the region.”

He added that “US-Israeli cooperation includes steps to enhance rapprochement with Israel by imposing laws that limit the boycott of Israeli products, measures that prevent some countries from rejecting Israeli travelers, or restricting the permission of Israeli aircraft to use airspace.

These policies aim to relieve some governments of the embarrassment they feel in front of their people, and to show that they find themselves forced to approach Israel under legal and diplomatic pressures, while the truth is that these plans are known in advance to some governments as part of broad normalization plans,” he said.

Two-state solution

Al-Anjari also touched on the issue of the “two-state solution,” considering it “a mere mechanism for managing the conflict, not resolving it, as this solution, as proposed today, seeks to grant the Palestinians an entity with diminished sovereignty and space, while consecrating the recognition of Israel as a fully sovereign state.”

The Kuwaiti analyst criticized what he described as “the contradiction in the positions of some parties calling for the two-state solution, which “support this solution, but refuse to recognize Palestine as a state,” considering that this “reflects a duality aimed at deceiving public opinion.”

The issue of Palestinian refugees and “two-state solution, if implemented, which is highly unlikely, will ignore the right of return; as Israel categorically rejects this right for fear of affecting its demographic balance, while granting the right of return to every Jew around the world, which leaves millions of Palestinian refugees without their basic rights.”

He added that “this makes the proposed Palestinian state lacking sovereignty, without real control over its borders, and unable to make its decisions freely.”

He pointed to “the possibility of future changes through elections in democratic countries, if their people are able to choose governments that support Palestinian rights.”

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Analysis: Hezbollah’s War Strategy Against Israel

Military and strategic expert Fayez al-Duwairi said the resistance’s performance witnessed a qualitative development. He pointed to a recurring pattern pf targeting the Israeli depth reaching a distance of 145 kilometers from the Lebanese border.

He explained that this development is accompanied by an increasing focus on targeting strategic military bases in Israel.

Al-Duwairi continued the resistance has begun to target the main strengths of the Israeli army, specifically the armored forces on the Blue Line and the air bases from which the aircrafts take off from.

He stressed targeting air bases is a strategic priority for them, as hitting a vital part of any base can disable them for hours, which reduces the number of sorties.

In his assessment of missile capabilities, the military expert explained the current range of missiles requires them to be launched from a depth of no less than 160 kilometers, pointing to the diversity of the missile systems used, as the Fateh missiles, for example, have a range of 300 kilometers, while the payload of the explosive warheads ranges between 70 and 500 kilograms.

Dense Barrages

Regarding the tactics used, Al-Duwairi pointed out Hezbollah’s strategy is to flood the skies of Israel with dense barrages of missiles, simultaneously with sending drones.

He pointed out that this tactic exploits the weaknesses of the Israeli Iron Dome system, which has only 10 batteries, while it needs 14-17 batteries to cover the all of the Israeli-occupied Palestine.

The military expert warned of the limited efficiency of the Israeli defense system, which does not exceed 65%, even with its reinforcement by the Iron Beam and the David’s Sling systems.

He explained the resistance exploits these loopholes by launching short-range missiles to flood the batteries, followed by long-range missiles or drones, which are tactics that have proven successful on several occasions.

Al-Duwairi stressed that the success of this strategy depends on precise coordination between different types of weapons and the appropriate timing of attacks, noting that the resistance is demonstrating an increasing ability to manage military operations with high efficiency.

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Trump’s Paradigm Shifts 

Dr Khairi Janbek

Islolationism in American terms meant historically, the interests of the USA are best served by not getting entangled in wars across the Atlantic, nor in the political affairs of Europe and possibly beyond, while keeping the economic expansion going.

Now to what extent will the incoming administration of Donald Trump proceed with isolationism and to what extent it believes will serve US interests?; in the mean time let us not forget that people electioneering or euphoric, are not the same people in the Oval Office. 

But still the first signs of isolationism are emerging in the field of US trade policy, with intended high customs and duties on imported goods from abroad.

This goes as well for the foreign policy of Trump which signals his distaste to negotiating with blocks and preferring bilateral agreements. This puts him in good standing with likeminded world leaders but certainly at odds with the EU, which by extension at odds with NATO also.

Ukraine

As for the current hot spots, Trump is accustomed to paradigm shifts, for a start he thinks that supporting Ukraine is a money losing project, and good business requires an atmosphere for peace. Therefore, most likely Trump will adopt a position of neutrality in this war, neither doing anything to harm Ukraine effectively, nor help it financially or militarily, while at the same time, trying to open diplomatic and trade dialogue with Russia. 

He may take the initiative to urge negotiations between the two parties on the basis of a business deal, in other words concessions.  No Meg’s Russia and not totally sovereign Ukraine, in any case, in Trump’s eyes, it is a European war after all.

Mideast

Now when it comes to the Middle East, this can be more tricky.  Trump has good relations with the Gulf Arab leaders, leaders of Egypt and Jordan, but also he is committed to the security of Israel and has good relations with Netanyahu. 

In a sense he has to square the circle if he wants to keep his relationships unscathed to deal with two most sour issues: The two state solution to the Palestinian problem, and the future of Iran, while taking into consideration, that both his allies, Egypt and Jordan are jittery about the issue of population transfer.

Trump’s option would be offering Netanyahu a free hand in Iran with US support, in exchange for a semblance of Palestinian self-rule, thus paving the way for deligitimising Hamas while legitimizing and presenting the continuation of war as a war between Israel and Iran, with Iran’s proxies being a legitimate target. 

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris and the above opinion is that of the author and doesn’t reflect crossfirearabia.com. 

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Arabs Don’t Believe Tramp Will End War on Gaza

Observers confirmed that incoming US president Donald Trump to occupy the White House will not change the view towards the Palestinian issue, as the Democrats and Republican are committed to an American political doctrine keen on the security, superiority and status of Israel.

Political analyst and lecturer at the Media Faculty at An-Najah National University Farid Abu Dhahir said “the Trump movement will not have a positive impact on the Palestinian reality, and will not see the end of the war unless it is within a plan and agreement made by Trump himself.”

Abu Dhahir told Quds Press the difference between Republicans and Democrats is not fundamental, especially with regard to internal matters… On the external level, they agree on preserving American interests in the world, but they differ in the way of managing this conflict.”

Abu Dhahir described Trump as “extremist and reckless… who does not care about anything, relying on the strength of the United States and its diplomatic, military and political power and influence on allies and those loyal to the US.”

Regarding the Democratic Party, he belives it “relies more on the method of evasion and the method of soft diplomacy to implement the plans of the United States of America.”

He believed these two parties completely agree on supporting the Israeli occupation in all circumstances and conditions.

War-mongering

“Even the Democratic Party, which uses soft diplomacy, has shown its true self in the conflict in Palestine, and never hesitated in sending tens and hundreds of thousands of tons of explosives, aircraft and other military equipment to the Israeli occupation.”

In turn, Palestinian writer and political analyst Khaled Maali said “Trump, being the next president of the United States will not depart from the present American policies that have not changed throughout the years and supported the Israeli occupation.”

Maali stressed that “the great reliance on the next president is an estimated shortcoming as he will continue on the path of his predecessor in supporting the occupation and its crimes.”

“Whoever believes that American interests, strategy and supreme interests can change with the change of the president is delusional and naive. It is true there is a margin, but it is so small it is not enough to change American interests.”

Maali says he is even more passimistic with the election of Trump and expects things to become worse, “as we have had some experience with him in his last term, and the woes and practices he brought on us, starting with moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem and/or proposing the Deal of the Century project.”

Americans went to the polls, Tuesday, to cast their votes in the 2024 US presidential elections and choose the 47th president of the United States and his deputy, as the initial results that unexpectedly brought back Trump to power with a whacking majority.

The Palestinian issue and the bloody war taking place Gaza were strongly present in the election campaign of all the candidates, who stressed they would work to change the reality if they came to power.

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Can Israel Holds on to Ayta Al Shaab?

CROSSFIREARABIA – Finally, and after nearly three weeks of trying Israeli tanks, Monday, managed to enter Ayta Al Shaab, the little town, one kilometer away across the border into southern Lebanon.

Ever since 1 October, 2024, Israeli ground troops have been trying to enter from the south and south-east of the country but to no avail.

Now and with Ayta Al Shaab, the Israeli army are appearing to make the final push beyond the Lebanese-Israeli border; before that, Jewish soldiers have been trying to cross into southern Lebanon but with not much success.

They were moving just a few hundreds kilometers into Lebanese territory and then retreating due to the stiff resistance of the Hezbollah fighters. This area of Lebanon is regarded as tough Hezbollah territory where holding on to the homeland is a source of pride.

However, the latest Israeli incursion is a first and may just be the beginning of a long-drawn out bitter battle. But Hezbollah officials led by the Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem are saying that the party is ready and waiting for the Israeli tanks which means that the fighters are prepared and want such eventuality.

These Israeli soldiers in tanks managed to enter this small town by the extensive bombing of the place from the air over the past few weeks leading to it mass destruction and the scurrying of its people further up north for safety. So, basically the town now lies empty of civilians.

But this doesn’t mean the fighters have gone. They lie in waiting. Indeed, already there is talk of fierce fighting and clashes between Hezbollah fighters and the invading Israeli forces.

Observers are saying that entering Ayta Al Shaab or any other place in southern Lebanon such as Maroun Al Ras, Wadi Rmiesh, Dabel, Bint Jbeil, Ramia and Al Quzah, is one thing, but can the Israeli army maintain its presence in these areas.

Its one thing to invade but it’s another to enforce control and continue to move forward to other villages and towns of southern Lebanon.

This is doubly doubtful because of the spread of the Hezbollah fighters who are proving a formidable force fighting the Israelis inside Lebanon despite their air superiority and launching rockets and missiles across the border into northern Israel and creating much havoc, destruction and fires.

Here national consciousness and resistance against enemy forces are at the ready.

The major challenge however, is the entry of the Israeli troops, who have up until now been kept at bay.

However, Ayta Al Shaab is a tough nut to break, having already proved itself in an earlier battle with Israel where the town stayed steadfast and fought for 33 days till Israeli soldiers were forced to depart from Lebanon.

That was in 2006 when Israel invaded the country in a major war that lasted for 34 days.

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Al Duwairi: Jabalia Battalion Surpassed Itself

Military expert Maj-Gen Fayez Al-Duwairi said that the killing of the commander of the Israeli army’s 401st Brigade in north Gaza indicates the nature of the resistance, praising the capabilities of the Jabalia camp battalion of Qassam Brigades, the Hamas military wing.

Al-Duwairi explained in his analysis of the military scene in Gaza, the commander’s killing was expected as soon as he reached the outskirts of Jabalia, considering the value of the event lies in his military rank targeted by the resistance.

The Israeli occupation army announced the killing of the commander of the 401st Brigade, Colonel Ihsan Daqsa, and the serious injury of another officer in battles in Jabalia. The 401st Brigade is part of the 162nd Division, which is an armored brigade.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that Colonel Daqsa was killed and another officer was seriously injured in a battle inside the Jabalia camp, after boarding a tank that had an explosive device inside it.

Journalist Mohammed Khairi quoted Israeli sources confirming that Daqsa was killed after he got off his tank with other officers and walked 20 meters, where an explosive device that had been planted in the area exploded.

On Sunday, the Qassam Brigades broadcast scenes of its fighters targeting Israeli military vehicles with explosive devices and anti-tank shells, in addition to fierce clashes with Israeli special forces from short distances.

Al-Duwairi believes that no ordinary person can wage such a defensive battle as that being done by resistance fighters in Jabalia because of its “complications, extermination and displacement.” He stressed the resistance has “exceeded” itself.

Under these circumstances, the military expert says that even “the American special forces cannot fight at the level of the Jabalia camp battalion of  the Qassam Brigades.”

Al-Duwairi explained the resistance is “decentralized” to increase its maneuverability, adding this is unlike previous ground battles whilst analyzing the Jabalia Battalion divided itself into cluster cells, each of 3 to 5 fighters, where its commander chooses the targets based on field data.

He explained the brigade commander came to the area with a group of officers after the military operations in Jabalia faltered despite 17 days after their launch.

He expected the deputy commander of the slain brigade to be chosen to lead the 401st Brigade “if he is not injured”, as a search is underway for another commander, indicating that the deputy commander of the brigade is usually aware of 85% of the field reality according to Al Jazeera.

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Expert: Jabalia – Matter of Life and Death For The Resistance

Military expert Brig-Gen Elias Hanna said that the resistance is obligated to “continue fighting in north Gaza Strip from zero distance and avoid a decisive battle,” describing what is happening as “a matter of life or death” for the Palestinian resistance factions.

Hanna spoke to Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the escalation of fighting between the resistance factions and the Israeli occupation army in the Jabalia camp.

Hanna believes that the fighting in the northern Gaza Strip has become a matter of life or death, expressing his conviction that the goal is “not to lose the area and to enter into a battle of attrition with the occupation.”

He said that the resistance is benefiting from the occupation’s unexploded remnants, as it reuses them within the system of detonating explosive devices, anti-tank shells and sniper operations.

From his point of view, the occupation’s use of the another military division, in addition to the Givati ​​Infantry Brigade, reflects “the size, importance and difficulty of the target in Jabalia,” which he said is a major center of gravity for the resistance, the environment that supports it and the safe haven for fighters.

The Qassam Brigades, the Hamas military wing, broadcast, Sunday, scenes of its fighters targeting Israeli military vehicles with explosive devices and anti-tank shells, and fierce clashes with Israeli special forces at short distances.

The military expert believes that the occupation’s entry into Jabalia represents “a new form but with an old content,” referring to the possibility of opening the door to settlement in the area if the residents of north Gaza Strip are displaced and completely destroyed.

He said he is convinced the Israeli army is racing with time to execute its plan in Jabalia with the countdown of the US presidential elections.

The occupation army destroyed many landmarks and buildings in the Jabalia camp, by booby-trapping and blowing up some tall buildings, and destroying others with air strikes.

The Israeli army imposed its siege on Jabalia, and tried to prevent residents from fleeing to the neighboring Gaza City, and ordered them to flee only to the southern Gaza Strip, while the Ministry of Interior in Gaza warned its citizens against responding to the occupation army’s calls to “evacuate their homes.”

Developments in Lebanon

On the northern front, Hanna said that the most important movements of the Israeli army on the Lebanese border are represented by the 210th Division towards the Shebaa Farms in an attempt to separate the Bekaa from the south of the Litani River.

The 210th Israeli military division recently joined four other divisions participating in the ground incursion operations in southern Lebanon, namely the 98th, 91st, 36th and 146th.

Hanna, a retired brigadier-general from the Lebanese army, explained that the Israeli army wants to surround Aita al-Shaab to isolate it, expressing his surprise about the calm of the Maroun al-Ras, Aitaroun and Yaroun axis despite its importance.

The military expert concluded that Israel wants to control the high points inside Lebanese territory, which overlook the Israeli interior and directly strike its settlements.

He added that Israel “wants to occupy these areas, destroy them and displace their residents without drowning in a war of attrition”, with the aim of “imposing a new reality on Hezbollah.”

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Analysis – Israeli Army Can Only Move at Night

Military and strategic expert, Maj-Gen Fayez Al-Duwairi said the Israeli occupation army is not able to advance in northern Gaza Strip except at night, indicating this is creating new challenges for the Palestinian resistance.

Differences this time

Al-Duwairi explained the differences between the current Israeli military operation here, and its previous operations, highlighting the new tactics followed by the occupation army and the challenges posed to Palestinian resistance groups.

He pointed out while there are ongoing battles and heavy Israeli losses including the destruction of vehicles and the killing of their soldiers, he believes the occupation’s success in isolating the Jabalia camp from all four sides has created a different reality this time around.

Moving at night

But he stressed most of the occupation’s main advances take place at night, attributing this fact to the resistance’s lack of night vision weapons with infrared rays. He pointed out this allows the occupation forces to set up barricades and achieve additional progress, even at limited distances ranging between 50 and 70 meters.

The military expert added this situation has created a new problem for the resistance it has not been exposed to before, despite its success in inflicting heavy losses on the occupation forces.

He drew attention to the seriousness of the humanitarian situation, noting there are about 150,000 Palestinians trapped in an area of ​​no more than two square kilometers, with Israeli tanks standing at the doors of shelters.

Human shields

Al-Duwairi believes it is as if the Israeli army is using civilians as human shields, making it difficult for resistance fighters to carry out their duties without risking harm to these civilians, considering this situation as one of the biggest challenges facing fighters, which they did not face in previous military incursions.

Commenting on the video shown by the Israeli army of the leader of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) Yahya Sinwar – which he said shows him with his family in a tunnel on the night of 7 October, 2023 – Al-Duwairi pointed out this video represents a “glorification of Sinwar and not condemnation of him.”

Not a 5-star hotel!

He explained the video shows the Hamas leader and the main planner of Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa living a difficult life inside the tunnels, not in a 5-star hotel, adding that he is the head of a family and is being directly targeted, and it is natural for him to seek to put his children in safety.

Al-Duwairi added the fact that Sinwar and his children lived for a year in the tunnels represents a sacrifice that must be appreciated, and he believed that the occupation’s attempt to use this video to condemn Sinwar may backfire, as he can be seen as a resistance leader who sacrifices his personal life for his cause.

Al-Duwairi believes that this video refutes the accusations directed at Sinwar and other Hamas leaders that they live a life of luxury, and that what appeared is that these leaders are not looking for a life of luxury, but seek to liberate the land, protect its honor, and are ready to die for the sake of God according to Al Jazeera.

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