Analyses Archives - Page 20 of 31

‘Israel Will Not be Able to Defeat Hezbollah’ – Military Expert

marwan
October 5, 2024

Israel will not succeed in achieving the goals it set in Lebanon and will not be able to defeat Hezbollah said military expert Retired Maj-Gen Mamoun Abu Nawar.

He pointed out Israel is still unable to cross the border into southern Lebanon due to the heavy losses and after seven failed attempts to do so by its soldiers.

He stressed Israel does not have the ability to defeat Hezbollah despite the losses and assassinations it carried out through its air strikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern district in the last two weeks.

Abu Nawar added to Jordan 24 the Israeli occupation army is trying to get out of the Gaza impasse and its inability to achieve the goals it announced there by opening the Lebanese front and is trying to cross the border and establish a foothold there to start extensive military operations later.

But he pointed out it is failing to do so after the heavy losses inflicted on its invading soldiers.

Israeli media: US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: "Israel will not be able to destroy Hezbollah" pic.twitter.com/lqHgv0FOPB
— Lou Rage (@lifepeptides) October 4, 2024

Abu Nawar explained opening a third front with Iran will not be easy and Israel does not have the ability to confront the strikes and ballistic and hypersonic missiles, which are considered among Iran’s most powerful weapons.

Abu Nawar pointed out that the air strike on Iran requires the approval of four countries for the aircraft to cross, namely Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria. He noted Jordan has already refused for its airspace to be used by both parties and the other countries will not allow the use of their airspace because they will be partners in the operation and this is not easy either.

Abu Nawar continued that there are also technical, technological and logistical reasons for Israel’s inability to strike Iran by air, including because the lack of aircrafts available to refuel after they were taken out of service; and in this case it needs the intervention of the USA to supply it with them or use its military bases in the Middle East, and this is not possible at the present time.

Israel can't win against Hezbollah warns the White House

According to the Washington Post, the White House has warned Israel that it will not be able to defeat Hezbollah .
They know they can’t win and they are not fighting for winning, they just want endless wars. pic.twitter.com/trKwGhqr2Z
— Dr. Suhail (@suhaichemistry) January 7, 2024

Analyses

Don’t Forget The West Bank Slaughter!

marwan
October 5, 2024

By Imran Khalid

Amid the ongoing violence and devastation in Gaza, much of the world has turned a blind eye to the equally volatile but less overt conflict simmering in the West Bank. While not as brutally visible as Gaza’s plight, the situation in the West Bank is equally dangerous, threatening to ignite unrest that could destabilize the Palestinian Authority and fuel ethnic cleansing.

Israel has steadily expanded settlements, demolished homes, and seized large swaths of land, targeting civilians in the process. Yet, global attention remains fixated on Gaza and Israel’s escalating war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is as if the world has forgotten that just a year ago, many feared the West Bank, not Gaza, would become the primary battleground between Israelis and Palestinians. Over the past two decades, the nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has diverged significantly between Gaza and the West Bank. After Israel’s 2005 unilateral disengagement from Gaza, the region was left without Jewish settlers, creating a different kind of friction compared to the West Bank. [1]

What is happening now in the northern West-Bank is the Gazafication of all Palestinian land.
The Israeli army is attacking with massive troops, including airplanes, and is about to invade a central hospital in Jenin. Early this morning Israel’s Foreign Minister tweeted about the… pic.twitter.com/lirmYax4uA
— MK Aida Touma-Sliman (@AidaTuma) August 28, 2024

Settlements are expanding day by day

On March 22, Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced the largest West Bank land seizure since 1993, setting a new course for Israeli settlement policy [2]. The move by Smotrich to declare 800 hectares in the Jordan Valley as state land paves the way for further development of settlements in this area sharing some 50 kilometers with Jordan.

For the Palestinians, who distrust such moves, seeing them as serious threats to the creation of an independent Palestinian state — this feels like a knife in their back. It is the latest land grab that Palestinians see as a last step before creating an independent and contiguous state. Settlement expansion — which set a record last year, according to Israeli monitoring group Peace Now — has cast doubts over the feasibility of a two-state solution. The largest threat to the long term stability of the land is that, with each designation of land as state property, the probability of having peace shrinks. The ongoing expansion of settlements, land confiscation, and rising settler violence — often carried out with impunity — only compound the difficulties. In some cases, this is further exacerbated by the incident in which the Israeli army is providing either direct or tacit support.

The Palestinian Authority’s Ministry of Health has stated that 716 Palestinians have died in the West Bank from Israeli military and settler violence since Oct. 7, including 160 children. Today, more than 5,750 have been wounded and over 10,000 detained in siege [3]. Nearly all arrests take place without going through a proper legal process, with the detainees imprisoned under Israel’s “administrative arrest” system – a method that bypasses international standards and in many cases denies those held the right to see either an attorney or even forthright details of the charges against them.

The two-state solution is being destroyed by Israel

The Israeli government is being accused more and more of implementing an annexation plan in the West Bank. The ramifications of this should alarm all nations that have historically supported a two-state solution, as verbal assurances and well wishes do little to mitigate the reality that Israeli security forces now operate at will in Area A — sovereign Palestinian Authority territory under the Oslo Accords [4].

Adding to this escalating tension are the inflammatory statements from Israeli officials. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz over the weekend compared the military operations in Jenin and Tulkarm to those in Gaza, saying that we are at “war in every sense.” [5] His proposal of a similar evacuation process along the frontier where Palestinian civilians could be temporarily moved will only serve to add further fuel to the fire in an already volatile region.

Israel’s assault on the occupied West Bank is the biggest attack since 2002.

The Israeli military has cut off access to food, destroyed vital infrastructure and killed dozens of civilians in a matter of days.

Here’s what Palestinians in the West Bank are facing. pic.twitter.com/qOfG9Y0wjO
— AJ+ (@ajplus) September 3, 2024

Despite domestic political turmoil, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has artfully dodged blame as violence in Gaza and the West Bank rumbles on. He has practically dismissed calls for a two-state solution and openly defied the International Court of Justice. Netanyahu refuses to yield, a position that has crippled the fragile peacekeeping efforts in Gaza and aggravated fears of renewed violence in the West Bank. Netanyahu has now many excuses that could provide convenient cover for changes aimed at further entrenching Israeli control over the region.

The fate of the major part of the West Bank is crucial; without it, any prospective two-state solution will be dashed. Within Netanyahu’s ruling coalition are elements who seem intent on this very outcome, exerting considerable influence over the prime minister. In this context, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz’s inflammatory rhetoric about the West Bank is more than just careless language — it may be a deliberate signal of the government’s intentions. As Netanyahu’s administration edges closer to what appears to be a calculated annexation strategy, the international community should question whether this is not only a consequence of policy but its very purpose.

[1] https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-palestine-gaza-hamas-explained-israels-2005-gaza-disengagement-plan-and-full-siege-order-4466132

[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/22/israel-seizes-800-hectares-of-palestinian-land-in-occupied-west-bank

[3] https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/humanitarian-situation-update-204-west-bank

[4] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240326-israel-s-largest-land-seizure-since-oslo-accords-deals-fresh-blow-to-palestinian-statehood

[5] https://www.timesofisrael.com/katz-slams-borrell-for-saying-he-called-for-displacement-of-west-bank-palestinians/

This opinion is reprinted from the Anadolu news agency.

Analyses

Al Duwairi: Attack Shows Strong Iran, Israel’s Intelligence Failure

CrossFireArabia
October 1, 2024

Military expert Major-General Fayez Al-Duwairi said the latest Iranian attack reflects a new intelligence failure for Israel, stressing it was different from its True Promise attack that took place last April, and reflects seriousness in its response.

The recent attack was carried out from several areas in Iran which reflects good preparation, especially since each batch of the trajectories headed towards specific targets. He noted the missiles used were hypersonic, which reflects Tehran’s seriousness in its response, Al-Duwairi said on Al Jazeera.

عاجل – الدويري: الهجوم الإيراني قوي وجاد ويعكس فشل إسرائيل استخبارياhttps://t.co/R3EWDnElDl
— خبرني – khaberni (@khaberni) October 1, 2024

The military expert stressed the call by Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari for people to leave the underground shelters a few minutes before the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the launch of another wave of missiles represents a major intelligence failure on the part of Israel.

Al-Duwairi added this latest attack reflects great coordination for Iran, adding the great silence that preceded the launch is a credit to Tehran as it was different from the attack last April.

Although the results of the strike and its losses are not yet known, Al-Duwairi said the at least 250 missiles cannot but cause losses.

Possibilities of others entering

Israel said it will respond to this attack regardless of the repercussions, while Iran’s UN mission warned any Israeli response to this attack will be met with a devastating response.

The Nevatim Airbase, Israel's primary air force base and home to its fleet of attack aircraft, has been devastated. These planes have been implicated in numerous attacks on innocent civilians#حسن_نصرالله #Lebanon #Iran #IsraeliNazis #IsraeliApartheid pic.twitter.com/0EpF7EN0YP
— Hadi 🪢🦎 🛡 (@Life_Work_Peace) October 1, 2024

The strategic expert pointed out Iran is still committed not to strike any US military bases in Middle East region, and that the Ain al-Assad base was targeted by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. He said this puts us in a state of great confusion.

He said this latest attack on Israel will lead to the erosion of the strategic gains Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps boasting about and in saying he will change the shape of the Middle East.

He pointed out Iran has already sent a clear message that any counterattack to this one will be met with a devastating response, indicating Israel may be subjected to strikes from the Houthi Ansar Allah group in Yemen and from the Lebanese Hezbollah.

Analyses

‘Stop The Bombs’ – Anti-explosives NGO

CrossFireArabia
October 1, 2024

The International Network on Explosive Weapons (INEW) is deeply concerned over the increased airstrikes in towns and cities in Lebanon, as well as the rocket attacks launched against Israel.

This devastating escalation in hostilities is causing extensive suffering and harm to civilians. INEW calls on both Israel and Hezbollah to immediately stop the use of heavy explosive weapons in populated areas due to the high risk of harm to civilians, including death and injury as well as devastating humanitarian consequences due to displacement, destruction of housing and damage to critical infrastructure.

Israel’s aerial bombardment in Lebanon is one of the heaviest air raids in contemporary armed conflict. On 23 September, the Israeli military struck 1,600 targets in airstrikes in 41 towns and cities in Lebanon, according to Israeli military officials. These attacks reportedly killed nearly 600 people, including 50 children, while 1,700 have been injured, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. The death toll will continue to rise as it is assumed that people remain trapped under rubble. As bombardment intensifies, tens of thousands of people have fled their communities to find refuge elsewhere. National authorities have reported that more than 90,000 people have been newly displaced.

These attacks come in the wake of escalation from the Israeli-Palestine conflict where over 41,000 Palestinians have been killed and 95,000 injured in the Gaza Strip between 7 October, 2023 and 23 September, 2024, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza.

This is what the mainstream media *doesn’t want you to see*…

Israeli forces using banned white phosphorus ammunition’s in over 17 towns and cities in Lebanon…

If Hezbollah rained white phosphorus over Tel Aviv there would be wall to wall coverage and every major leader would… pic.twitter.com/FZiuLhRbo8
— Pelham (@Resist_05) June 5, 2024

The use of explosive weapons in populated areas is the one of leading causes of harm to civilians in armed conflict worldwide. Civilians are killed and injured, with many experiencing life-changing injuries and yet more suffering severe psychological harm and distress. Damage and destruction of vital infrastructure including housing, hospitals and schools causes further harm. Unexploded ordnance poses an ongoing threat to civilians during and long after hostilities have ended, impeding the safe return of refugees and displaced persons.

Israel and Lebanon should join the Political Declaration on Strengthening the Protection of Civilians from the Humanitarian Consequences Arising from the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas and take steps to immediately implement its commitments, including restricting and refraining from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas when such use is expected to cause harm to civilians and civilian objects.

INEW calls on the 87 states that have endorsed the Political Declaration to make good on their undertaking to “actively promote the Declaration” and to “seek adherence to its commitments” by the parties to the conflict. States that have joined the Political Declaration have done so in recognition of the devastating humanitarian impact that takes place when such use occurs.

Additionally, they have also committed to take action to address civilian harm, including through public statements, as a means to strengthen the protection of civilians, as well as urging to parties to conflict to restrict or refrain from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, in order to promote the norms and standards that the Declaration seeks to establish.

Action by endorser states to promote the Declaration, and at this time in particular, is vitally needed action to better protect civilians from the effects of explosive weapons and armed conflict.

Reliefweb

Analyses

Duwairi: Hezbollah Able to Manage The Battle

CrossFireArabia
September 27, 2024

Military expert Retired Major General Fayez al-Duwairi said Hezbollah is still able to manage the defensive battle effectively and powerfully despite the Israeli onslaught which have not undermined its combat capabilities.

Duwairi explained Hezbollah, Thursday, launched five large missile barrages despite the intensive Israeli air campaign and assassinations that targeted prominent military leaders, including Fouad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil, and the bombing of pagers and walkie-talkies.

According to the strategic expert, the combat organizations that are fighting an asymmetric war with a regular Israeli army that has great capabilities “have in their calculations, to be exposed to painful strikes that may abort their combat power if they move to the traditional approach.”

Accordingly, there are fixed instructions for the fighters that at some point communications may be lost and the chain of command may be struck through concentrated assassinations, “but this does not mean the collapse of the combat power, as planning is centralized but implementation is decentralized,” he added on Al Jazeera.

The military expert touched on the combat capabilities possessed by Hezbollah, most notably its missile capabilities and their impact on Israel, in addition to artillery, drones, and field forces deployed in the south, central Bekaa, and Hermel, and the the Radwan Force, designed to carry out operations inside occupied Palestine.

⛔️ قراءة عسكرية مهمة لواقع القتال والتطورات الميدانية بين الجيش الإسرائيلي وحزب الله مع اللواء فايز الدويري والعميد إلياس حنا .
• متابعات الصدر نيوز https://t.co/CNLSecW2mG pic.twitter.com/yK3uzExyVL
— لا شرقية 🇮🇷 ولا غربية 🇺🇸 (@Iraq213890) September 24, 2024

Hezbollah’s missile force ranges between 100,000 and 200,000 missiles, 80% of which are unguided, according to Al-Duwairi who said that the party has not yet deployed medium- and long-range missiles.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considers what Israel achieved, so far, in terms of preemptive strikes, intensive assassinations, and bombings of communications and wireless devices are “military achievements that may disappear if he enters a ground war,” Al-Duwairi pointed out.

The military expert added that Hezbollah – 18 years after the 2006 war – has a large presence in southern Lebanon, and succeeded in harnessing the geographical turrain of the area to serve its defensive plan, noting it focuses on controlling combat nodes and target bank.

He concluded the entry of the Israeli occupation army into southern Lebanon “will not be a summer outing,” noting Israel’s strikes have targeted Hezbollah’s capabilities and its incubating environment, so far, “so the party is walking a tightrope between maintaining deterrence and not being dragged into a ground war.”