Analysts: US Fails on Houthis After Six Weeks of Bombing

After nearly six weeks of intensive US airstrikes on different areas and cities of Yemen the Houthi Ansar Allah continues to assert that its military operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets will not stop until the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip ends.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, Saturday, announced the targeting of the Israeli Nevatim Air Base in the Negev with a ballistic missile, as well as two other sites in the Tel Aviv and Ashkelon areas and the targeting of warships on the US aircraft carrier SS Harry Truman in the northern Red Sea are just part of the continuing ongoing military strikes.

However in response to these attacks the US aircraft launched two airstrikes last Friday night on the Ras Isa oil port in the coastal province of Al Hudaydah, which Washington considers a major source of fuel used to finance the Ansar Allah group’s activities.

According to Dr Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, the USA has failed miserably in its strikes against the Houthis because of its inability to move to the second phase. He said that as a result they are  discussing an alternative scenario for this military campaign against the Houthis.

Makki believes that US President Donald Trump has reached a dead end, and that the ceiling he set regarding the Houthis is proven unrealistic, pointing out the United States, despite its military strength, is failing in Yemen because it is fighting a group, not a state.

On the other hand, military and strategic expert Brigadier-General Elias Hanna, believes that both sides are losing, whilst the image of the United States is being damaged, given the scale of the US military campaign and Trump’s engagement with the Houthis, who previously declared that  “we [US] will withdraw from all the world’s wars.”

Reports estimate the cost of the airstrikes carried out by the US military on Houthi positions amounted to approximately $1 billion in the first three weeks of the military campaign alone.

The Associated Press reported the value of the seven downed American drones made by the Houthis exceed $200 million, and the continued loss of American drones makes it difficult for the US leadership to accurately determine the extent of the damage to the Houthis’ weapons stockpiles.

Brigadier-General Hanna said that Washington lacks a comprehensive strategy in its dealings with the Houthis, and that the political goal it announced—restoring deterrence and opening shipping lanes—has not been achieved.

He also pointed out the US military is targeting the centers of gravity within the Houthi military system to disrupt it, a strategy Israel has used with the Palestinian resistance but has failed to achieve.

Appeasing the Houthis

In light of Washington’s inability to achieve its goals against the Houthis, Brigadier-General Hanna believes the pressure being exerted on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip is part of an effort to appease the Houthis so that they will halt their operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets.

Trump’s upcoming visit to the region also requires a de-escalation. According to the military and strategic expert, the US president cannot arrive while the Houthis are launching missiles.

In the same context, the senior Al Jazeera’s Makki expects  that a Gaza ceasefire will soon be reached before Trump’s visit, allowing the Houthis to halt their operations as they have initially linked the cessation of their operations to an end to the war on Gaza and to the cessation of US strikes against them.

American officials have previously revealed to CNN that the US military has struck more than 700 Houthi targets and carried out 300 airstrikes since the campaign began in mid-March, “forcing them underground and creating confusion and chaos within their ranks.”

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Avi Ashkenazi: Hamas is Pushing Israeli Army Into a Quagmire

An Israeli military analyst said Friday, Hamas is waging a “guerrilla war” against the Israeli army in Gaza, and that decisions made by the current government are pushing it toward a quagmire.

Avi Ashkenazi, a military analyst for the Maariv newspaper, explained Hamas is trying to maintain its military strength, and its fighters know this territory; it is their stronghold.

“They (Hamas fighters) are not waging a defensive battle, but rather an offensive one through guerrilla cells. They monitor the Israeli forces from afar, know where they operate, their routines are, and look for their weak spots” he added.

“The cells prefer to operate in the afternoon, during daylight, when the sun is shining. When they realize the right time, they emerge from several openings of a single tunnel and begin the attack with an anti-tank missile, followed by sniper fire or the dropping of grenades,” Ashkenazi continued.

“The problem does not lie in the tactical management of the campaign by the army, but rather lies solely at the political level.”

“The political class is waging a war for political survival, and its decisions are pushing the army into a quagmire, even though Gaza has not seen a single drop of rain in weeks.”

“Israel must reach an agreement to release the hostages (held by Palestinian factions in Gaza) as soon as possible, even if the price is high, which is the release of (Palestinian) prisoners, and even if it means retreating to the border fence of Gaza, even if it means providing guarantees that the war will not resume,” he added.

“Hamas is Hamas, and sooner or later it will violate one of the terms of the agreement, which will allow Israel to move to complete the war’s objectives and deprive it of the ability to govern and militarize,” he continued.

“The wild and impudent words directed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir during the cabinet meeting illustrate the impasse facing some members of the political leadership,” Ashkenazi pointed out.

“The inability of the political echelons to make decisions makes it difficult for the army to manage the campaign (the war of extermination) well, quickly, and sharply.

When this happens in this type of campaign, where there is a large army (Israel) on the one side and a guerrilla organization (Hamas) on the other, the large army becomes vulnerable,” Ashkanazi stressed.

On Tuesday, the Israeli security cabinet meeting witnessed severe tensions between Smotrich and both Zamir and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar. The Hebrew media reported that the dispute began when Smotrich sharply criticized the army’s refusal to assume responsibility for distributing aid, arguing the army lacked the authority to choose its own missions.

He told Zamir: “Those who cannot carry out their missions should go home.” Zamir responded by rejecting these statements, prompting several ministers to ask Smotrich to lower his tone.

Throughout the ongoing genocide perpetrated by Israel in Gaza since October 7, 2023, Tel Aviv has been attempting to impose total control over the Gaza Strip by dismembering it and displacing its population, in addition to its attempts to eliminate Hamas and recover the prisoners in Gaza.

However, Israel has been unable to fully achieve these goals over the months of war, exposing Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to criticism both from the extreme right, which wants to tighten the noose on the Strip, and from leftists, who aspire to recover the prisoners from Gaza, even if the price is a ceasefire.

Tel Aviv estimates that there are 59 Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip, 24 of whom are still alive. Meanwhile, more than 9,500 Palestinians are languishing in its prisons, suffering torture, starvation, and medical neglect, many of whom have died, according to Palestinian and Israeli human rights and media reports.

With full American support, Israel has been committing genocide in Gaza since October 7, 2023, leaving more than 168,000 Palestinians dead and wounded, most of them children and women, and more than 11,000 missing according to Anadolu.

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Military Analysis: The Gaza Resistance is Back

Military, strategic expert Major-General Fayez al-Duwairi said the recent operations carried out by the Palestinian resistance groups in the Gaza Strip, led by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, reveal a remarkable ability to perform on the ground, despite Israeli military superiority.

He added that attempts to weaken the resistance are still far off.

In a full military analysis al-Duwairi explained that what happened in Beit Hanoun and the al-Tuffah neighborhood cannot be limited to a single operation, but reflects several separate ambushes in which advanced tactics were employed, including tunnel detonations and preemptive surveillance of enemy movements.

The Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the Hamas military wing released a video of the “Breaking the Sword” ambush it carried out east of Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza, which resulted in the death of one soldier and the injury of others whilst also engineering an Israeli force that was lured into a booby-trapped tunnel shaft in the al-Tuffah neighborhood and detonated it, resulting in a number of casualties.

Al-Duwairi pointed out that the attack on the Israeli force east in Tuffah is an independent operation and believes the succession of these operations confirms the resistance’s return to the tactics of the first phase of the war, when it held the initiative.

The military expert believes these attacks reflect the resistance factions’ readiness to employ different methods in confrontation, including booby-trapping, sniping, and direct engagement at close range.

He pointed out that the video footage broadcast by the Qassam Brigades from Beit Hanoun, showing the resistance fighters infiltrating through a tunnel, demonstrates a high degree of professionalism, especially since the fighters emerged from a tunnel previously monitored by the occupation, indicating a failure of Israeli intelligence to assess the extent of the threat.

Five stages

Speaking on Al Jazeera, he explained that this complex ambush was executed in five stages, including surveillance, targeting the first vehicle, and then surprising the support force. He indicated that the resistance various weapons were used, including RPG launchers, machine guns, and mortar shells, indicating tight field coordination.

The retired major-general emphasized what was striking about the operation was that the ambush occurred in a buffer zone from which the occupation forces had not supposedly withdrawn, specifically on al-Awda Street, only about 300 meters from the separation line. This demonstrates the fighters’ great audacity and their ability to penetrate deep into Israeli territory in broad daylight.

He pointed out that field data reported by Israeli media, such as the amputation of two female soldiers’ legs as a result of the attack, confirms that the losses were heavy. The Israeli army was also forced to use 60mm mortar shells to attempt to regain control of the area after losing soldiers and equipment.

Al-Duwairi emphasized that the continuation of these ambushes and their various implementation methods prove that the resistance has not lost the initiative. Rather, it is now capable of moving whenever the opportunity arises, whether by reaching deep within the buffer zone or targeting occupation forces as they approach pre-prepared positions.

He pointed out that the tactic of the tunnel detonated east of the Tuffah neighborhood differed from the Beit Hanoun tunnel, explaining that the former involved a direct lure of an Israeli force into a booby-trapped tunnel, reflecting high-precision surveillance and the ability to remain patient on the ground until the appropriate moment for execution.

Major General Fayez al-Duwairi believes that the resistance’s field performance in recent hours reflects an important fact: The use of tunnels remains a black box for the Israeli army. He added that the ability to exploit this tactical advantage means that twisting the resistance’s arm remains out of reach.

Since the beginning of last March, the first phase of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Hamas and Israel, which went into effect on January 19, with Egyptian and Qatari mediation and American support, has concluded, and the movement has adhered to it.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu evaded the start of the second phase and resumed the genocide in the Gaza Strip on 18 March, in deference to the most extreme faction within his right-wing government.

With full American support, Israel has been committing genocide in Gaza since 7 October, 2023, leaving more than 168,000 Palestinians dead and wounded, most of them children and women, and more than 11,000 missing.

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