Israel is Burning: Here’s Why!

By Dr Marwan Asmar

(Crossfirearabia.com) – Israel is burning. Its war on Gaza is going nowhere, Israeli society is being torn-apart, and its remaining 59 hostages remain in the depth of the tunnels in Gaza unable to be found. Its like looking for a needle in a haystack because of the extensive hundreds of miles of underground! Many, except Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, people like US Envoy Steve Witkoff believe the hostages, 24 still alive, are likely to die if the war is not brought to an end.

After 18 months of bloodshed on the Gaza Strip with its endless destruction, Israel is nowhere near to reaching its objectivity of stamping out Hamas. The Islamist organizations remains just as strong, determined and willing for martyrdom as when the fighters unleashed themselves soon after 7 October, 2023.

On the contrary all the Israeli government did by insisting on the continuation of the war on the Palestinian territory has created the wrath of many world nations, including the irritation of US president Donald Trump who has cut off contacts with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and who now feels the latter can no longer be trusted for a meaningful end to the fighting.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army which is back fighting on Gaza not of its own accord, is facing what can all be called the “Gaza malaise” of being entrapped in the Strip through ambushes, booby-trapped, once-standing houses and Palestinian resistance missiles, ammunitions and artillery.

Israel and its army – despite the killing of over 52,000 Palestinians, 100,000 injured with over 12000 remaining under the rubble – is facing the worst of times, bogged down, through its own accord in an enclave it is determined not to leave while shamelessly embarking on a spree of killing, murder and mass-bombing civilians under the intrepid eyes of the world and documented by international agencies. In fact, many experts, including Israelis, say this is the worst documented genocide which the Jewish state will not be able to live it down.  

Meanwhile, the Palestinian resistance lead by Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters and a motley of other determined factions led by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine are wreaking havoc among Israeli soldiers and their killer machines of tanks, all over the Gaza Strip from its far north, center and its south.

Privately the Israeli army is complaining because of the orders they are following from extremist politicians like Netanyahu. And they have a right to be because they have literally bombarded every nook and cranny in Gaza, forcing its 2.1 million populations on a whirlwind pool of displacements not once, not twice but up to 10 times to squat from one place to another but to no avail.

How can civilians, mostly women and children living in tents – for this is what Gaza has been reduced to – be military targets with mass bombs dropped on schools and hospital. For this is what the Israeli army is, an impressive air force, thousands of tanks and mass bombs supplied by the Americans, British and many more countries have been reduced to.

There are no Palestinians fighters here, they don’t lounge among civilians in makeshift UN schools. The fighters are in bombed houses, Israeli-gorged out what used to be manicured-gardens and residential squares, in semblance of buildings that used to be ministries, ruined university halls, restaurants, shops and libraries and much more.

Israel has made sure these longer exist. However, the Palestinian groups have came to fight among the rubble of these places that are bombed and re-bombed time and again like a macabre scene never existed before.

In many of these places, different neighborhoods of Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip to the north the bombed-out town of Beit Hanoon to Al Tuffah in Gaza City and Shuja’iyya to the east, near the wall that divided Gaza from Israel, the rubble and wreckage has become so bad that Israelis, for the most part, are no longer able to enter their tanks, bulldozers and other heavy machinery.

The soldiers have to go on foot with their machine-guns and backpack of bombs and other “vile little goodies”. Frequently, and today, much more so, they would be running from one place to another fearful of being sniped by Palestinian fighters.

Since Israel re-started its war on the Gaza Strip after 19 March, and as the Palestinian fighters geared for action weeks later, ambushes of Israeli soldiers were stepped in in the different areas of Gaza. These ambushes resulted in the death and injury – on a daily basis of many Israeli soldiers.

While the Israeli army – and it has been so throughout this war – trying to massage and downplay the number of Israeli dead, this has not worked because of the Israeli media, the internet and power of satellite television which meant that the image and the picture – even by Israeli soldiers themselves – has been instant and at the ready ready to be posted online.

As to the intensity of the fighting when satellite television provide pictures of helicopters, both like a scene of the ambush, the booby-trapped house and landing on top of Israeli hospitals, in Tel Aviv for instance, experts said one can be sure the number of Israeli dead and injured is large because Israeli soldiers on the ground on Gaza have with them medical teams to deal with immediate emergencies.

If helicopters to be transported to hospitals are brought in, they argue the number of ‘critically’ wounded and dead is sure to be much higher and that means the resistance is meting out powerful blows at the Israeli soldiers thousands who have been protesting in this latest military campaign that they don’t want to go back to fighting in Gaza in a recent memo signed by 200,000 rank-and-file soldiers and some even prepared to go to prison for disobeying orders.

The dismay among the Israeli soldiers have been highlighted by the booby-trapped housing. In one case recent case in Al Jenienah neighborhood in Rafah, a group of Israeli soldiers with their dogs walked into what appeared to be a booby-trapped disused building and which exploded immediately bringing in the transport helicopters. The place just blew up.

Such a situation is being repeated daily on the streets of Gaza, a strip proving a tough fight that can’t be conquered nor subdued. Just to go back to Shuja’iyya, a wrecked place which the Israeli army entered many times, and which history will associate with Palestinian courage, as its name in Arabic, as of Saturday morning a military transport vehicle was just blown up.

All the Israeli army first said that there has been a serious security incident there, with helicopters hovering at the scene on top of Tel Hashomer Hospital in Tel Aviv. Later on the only owned up to two soldiers being killed and seven injured.

Brigadier-general Fayez Dwairi speaking on Al Jazeera says that the number of Israeli dead is likely to be between four and 12 depending whether we are talking about a Merkava tank and or a military vehicle that also carries 12 people. He points out the Israeli tanks is the only one in the world that has four operatives but has room for six additional soldiers.

Hence this is the battle Israel is currently waging. If Netanyahu insists that the war will continue then his army is likely to continue to face a vicious circle of death and mayhem as the Palestinian Israeli fighters will continue to mushroom.

Today the Palestinian resistance is still at the ready for with Gaza destroyed and mass wreckages that wrecks of death, they have nothing to look forward but to continue fighting especially against an Israeli government and army determined to fight Hamas and the other Palestinian factions till the end

This analysis is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website. 

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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‘Insulting Phone Call’, Beirut, Iran and Changing Dynamics

By Abdul Bari Atwan

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demonstrated his ability to effectively redraw the maps and borders of the Middle East when he backed down from striking Beirut’s southern suburb to completely destroying it. He succumbed to the threats and pressure from US President Donald Trump. In this respect here, Iran can be considered to have become a regional superpower not only in the Middle East, the West and Central Asia, but globally.

Trump, who previously threatened to wipe Iran off the map and unleash hell upon it, destroying all its energy and electricity infrastructure, scurried like a frightened rabbit to the phone to call Netanyahu in a “call of insults,” ordering him to immediately halt all plans to bomb Beirut’s southern suburb and withdraw his troops and warplanes en route to the area, just hours before the bombings and destructions where to begin.

***

In a Washington Post interview, Trump completely changed his threatening tone and began pleading for peace with Iran, after extending the unilateral ceasefire by 60 days. More importantly, he expressed his desire for a summit with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as soon as an agreement is reached, and confirmed that Mojtaba, whom he had previously claimed was no longer alive, is now involved in the decision-making process regarding war and peace in the current conflict.

The new and effective ‘password’ in the Middle East, reflecting Iran’s “power shift,” is embodied in its thunderous response to the Israeli threat to destroy the southern suburb of Beirut, western Bekaa Valley, and Nabatieh. Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones to strike deep into occupied Israel, sending a clear message: “Greater Tel Aviv in exchange for the southern suburb.”

The Iranian leadership, backed by a solid popular base, a highly advanced missile and drone industry, a naval fleet, and over 460 kilograms of uranium enriched above 60%—enriched to produce 10 nuclear bombs in a few days—says what it means and acts accordingly. It will not tolerate injustice and is prepared for all eventualities.

There is ample evidence to support this assertion, as demonstrated early Wednesday morning when Iranian missiles and drones struck US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation for attacks on an Iranian oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and a communications tower on Qeshm Island, both launched from these bases.

The American-Israeli alliance has, since the October War of 1973, grown accustomed to a deeply ingrained official Arab subservience, a failure to respond to any Israeli aggression, and a refusal to reject any American dictates. Most Arab leaders turn the other cheek to Israeli and American slaps, becoming indifferent to the situation. But now, someone has emerged to uproot this system of surrender and usher in a new, truly Islamic era—an era of resistance, where the response is not merely in kind, but in a stronger and more significant way.

Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, summarized this new military, political, and moral upheaval in a statement saying, “America and its president, Trump, should expect a barrage of missiles (hypersonic and cluster warheads) and drones should they renew their aggression against Iran.”

Netanyahu, who craved the limelight and the humiliation of Arabs, and who rubbed his hands with glee at the long line of Arab leaders queuing before his office seeking normalization and the signing of the Abraham Accords, has fallen silent and disappeared from the public eye. He no longer dares to threaten to destroy Iran alone, without America’s participation in the aggression.

The dictates Trump issued just days ago, the shifting balance of power on the ground, and Iran’s threat of retaliation for any aggression against Lebanon have evaporated. The American president, as a New York Times editorial acknowledged, has failed miserably in all his wars since arriving at the White House a year and a half ago—in Iran, Ukraine, and the Gaza Strip—and has not achieved his objectives and has become a laughingstock.

As for the Gulf states – those that normalized relations and/or those that were eager to join the “Abraham Accords” to avoid angering Trump and rejecting his demands – they reached a firm conviction that America is incapable of protecting itself, its bases, and its ships.

The most prominent evidence of this is the destruction of American military bases in their countries, including the US Navy base in Bahrain, and the closure of these bases and Saudi airspace to planes and drones, whilst preventing them from launching attacks on Iran from their territory. They saved the Hajj season, just as they saved themselves and their people from the consequences of the mirage of American power.

***

In conclusion, we sympathize with our Kuwaiti brothers who were injured as a result of an Iranian missile attack on the passenger terminal at Kuwait Airport, whether by mistake or deliberately. However, the blame lies entirely with those who allowed America to use Kuwaiti territory as a launching pad for aggression against Islamic Iran. America possesses three aircraft carriers and more than 300 warships in the Arabian Sea, so why didn’t it use them in this aggression? And why does it insist on using its bases in the Gulf states, thereby endangering millions of their citizens?

Abdul Bari Atwan is the Chief Editor of the Arabic Al Rai Al Youm and his piece has appeared in the English crossfirearabia.com English website. 

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Hormuz: Mines, Strategy or Business?

By Ismail Al Sharif

The US thought that assassinating senior Iranian leaders would bring down the regime, but this did not happen.

Iran’s inability to match American military and technological superiority led it to adopt a number of strategies, most notably what is known in the military literature as the Mosaic Defense Doctrine. This doctrine is based on dismantling its military central command into small, independent units, each operating autonomously and making its own decisions without consulting the higher command.

From Day 1 of the war, Iran adopted this approach. However, the lack of coordination and the disintegration of the military hierarchy led to chaos and confusion which affected the management of its operations. The situation became contradictory; the politicians were declaring one thing and military commanders acting in a completely different manner and direction.

This was reflected on the ground through extremely dangerous behavior. Military units, using small boats, indiscriminately laid naval mines to deter enemy ships. However, the lack of coordination here backfired resulting in the Iranian navy officers losing their ability to pinpoint the coordinates of the mines they planted in the Hormuz Strait with no accurate maps or reliable records. Some of these mines may have been completely displaced by the currents of the sea. This was further complicated by the fact that these mines were not primitive but far from it; they were sophisticated and able to detect sound and pressure, and thus able to track the passage of large ships and submarines, and detonate automatically upon approach.

However, mine removal is not easy task, as history shows. Even today, news reports continue to surface of mines in various parts of the Kingdom, half a century after the last war. Indeed, mines from World War II are still being discovered on land and at sea.

Even with Britain’s pledge to remove mines after the war, and despite possessing the latest specialized technologies in this field, the task remains arduous, protracted, and uncertain. The specter of a sudden explosion looms, reminding us that the danger of mines is not easily eliminated.

But the decisive factor in weakening navigation in the Hormuz Strait is not primarily military, but rather material. Commercial ships are massive investments, with some vessels valued at around $150 million and their cargoes potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, a single mine explosion can cause catastrophic losses to both the ship and its cargo. Consequently, no ship sails without insurance; ports, banks, and shipping companies refuse to deal with uninsured vessels, and without insurance, global shipping grinds to a halt.

Herein lies the real surprise: the fate of the Strait is no longer dependent on Iran’s pronouncements regarding its opening or closure, but has effectively fallen into the hands of insurance companies. With the escalating risks, insurance costs have skyrocketed; “war risk” premiums have jumped from approximately 0.25% of the ship’s value to nearly 1% or more, exceeding a massive $1 million per voyage. And it doesnt stop there; seven major insurance companies announced their complete withdrawal, issuing notices of coverage cancellation just within just 72 hours.

And here comes the decisive turning point: Once the insurance coverage is lost, maritime traffic ground to a halt. During this 39-war, ships have effectively ceased sailing with the number of vessels transiting the Strait plummeting by more than 80%. Around 150 oil tankers remain anchored offshore, and major shipping companies suspended their operations, as if this vital artery of global trade had been frozen by a financial, rather than a military decision.

The US government attempted to provide alternative insurance coverage, but this effort failed and US President Trump’s pronouncements regarding mine removal were inconsistent with the reality.

The issue of reopening the Strait has once again become a prominent topic, but the deeper truth is that its fate is no longer determined by political statements or military actions, but rather by the decisions of insurance experts. Even if the war were to end immediately, ships would not resume sailing right away. Insurance companies need time to reassess the level of risk, and they base their decisions not on political logic, but on cold, hard numbers and rigorous data.

This article was originally published in Arabic in Addustour daily newspaper and republished in English in crossfirearabia.com.

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