Mideast on War Footing: Is US Strike on Iran Coming?

As US military assets continue to move into the Middle East, analysts warn that Washington is edging closer to a possible confrontation with Iran, weighing options that range from intensified economic pressure and a naval blockade to direct military action.

Recent developments have heightened fears that a US-led escalation could be imminent.

“It’s looking increasingly likely that with this buildup of military assets, President Donald Trump – and probably the Israelis – are preparing for a military escalation against the Iranians,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, told Anadolu.

On Wednesday, Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social that a “massive armada” was heading toward Iran, expressing hope that Tehran would “come to the table” and negotiate with Washington. He warned that the fleet was prepared to “rapidly fulfill its mission with speed and violence, if necessary.”

Trump said the deployment was larger than the one previously sent toward Venezuela and confirmed that it is led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, one of the world’s largest aircraft carriers, which hosts electronic-warfare aircraft capable of disrupting Iranian radar systems.

The New York Times reported that the carrier strike group is accompanied by three warships equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles, capable of long-range precision strikes. The US has also reportedly deployed around a dozen additional F-15E attack planes, along with Patriot and THAAD air-defense systems to protect against potential Iranian retaliation.

Steffan Watkins, a consultant specializing in tracking military ships and aircraft, said the US is also shipping supplies and deploying additional surveillance aircraft. “Preparations for operations targeting Iran appear to be underway,” he wrote Thursday on the American social media platform X.

“Time is running out,” Trump warned Iran, threatening that any future attack “will be far worse” than last year’s US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Although the rhetoric comes in the wake of Iran’s crackdown on protests, Bohl said Washington’s broader objective appears to be forcing changes in Iran’s foreign and security policies.

The goal is to see “if they can get Iran’s government to change its foreign policies, to give up on its missile program and its nuclear energy program,” he said.

Limited and targeted strikes

Analysts say one of the most likely military options under consideration is a campaign of limited, precision strikes targeting Iran’s military, missile and nuclear infrastructure.

“They could go after the missile program again – strike drones and missiles and manufacturing. They can try to destroy launchers, remains of Iran’s air force, some infrastructure related to the military-industrial complex,” Bohl told Anadolu.

During the 12-day war with Israel last June, the US struck three major Iranian nuclear facilities – Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan – using bunker-buster bombs, claiming the attacks crippled Iran’s nuclear program.

Bohl said it remains unclear whether Washington would allow Israel to initiate a new round of strikes or whether a joint US-Israeli campaign would unfold.

Another option, he added, would involve phased strikes rather than a single, overwhelming attack.

“We could be seeing a version of what we saw in Iraq back in the 1990s, where the US would strike Iraq, wait to see if that would create a concession process for the Iraqis and then strike again to try to again shift the Iraqis’ behavior,” he said. “And that could take weeks, even months to unfold.”

Blockade and attacks on infrastructure

Experts also suggested that the US might try to impose naval and aerial blockade on Iran.

“Imposing a new blockade on the Iranians and trying to seize their tankers like they did in Venezuela is escalatory,” Bohl said.

He added that Washington could also attempt to restrict Iranian airspace, limiting civilian flights in a bid to inflict economic damage.

“They could enhance their cyber campaign to try to cripple Iran’s infrastructure, particularly during this time where there’s still a lingering protest movement after those major crackdowns earlier this month,” he said. “So, disrupting infrastructure would also be a choice.”

The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group could also be used to intercept Iranian oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf, he added.

However, Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin, cautioned that a blockade and seizure of Iranian vessels could be challenging.

“I think it would be very risky for the US to do what it’s done with Venezuela, which is to seize Iranian oil tankers,” he said.

“I think the prospect of that setting off a regional crisis is much greater, especially since Iran has the capacity to close off the Strait of Hormuz, and about 20% of the world’s oil supply goes through that waterway.”

Broad escalation and strikes on leadership

Analysts also warned that Washington could opt for a broader military campaign aimed at severely degrading Iran’s leadership and command structure.

“We are seeing reports that President Trump wants something ‘decisive,’ which is more of a major campaign to probably attack as many targets as possible and increasingly consider assassinations of top Revolutionary Guards and even some of the leadership like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,” said Bohl.

Such an approach could include attacks on senior commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, political leadership nodes, and command-and-control infrastructure, analysts said.

Experts warned that efforts aimed at full regime change would almost certainly provoke retaliation against US forces and allies across the Middle East.

Bohl added that Trump believes Iran’s deterrence has comprehensively failed, as their missiles and drones have not stopped previous attacks.

“He (Trump) may believe that Iran isn’t able to carry out those sorts of comprehensive strikes on energy infrastructure,” he said. “That would encourage him to go on into a larger and more substantial campaign.”

Targeted assassinations and covert operations

A more limited alternative would involve targeted assassinations and covert operations rather than an overt large-scale war.

While analysts largely rule out a full US ground invasion of Iran, Bohl said Trump has demonstrated a preference for deploying special forces on high-risk missions.

“President Trump ran on a platform of avoiding another Iraq war, but he is very commando-happy and he likes to use his special forces,” said Bohl.

Such operations could include the destruction of high-value military targets or the assassination of individuals linked to Iran’s missile, drone or nuclear programs, analysts said.

“They have targeted Iranian leaders in the past. They assassinated the leader of the Quds Force … Gen. Qasem Soleimani at the start of 2020,” Lucas explained.

Bohl also pointed to US actions in Venezuela and North Korea as examples of attempts to apply pressure through targeted operations rather than regime-wide campaigns.

However, Bohl said that a repeat of Venezuela, where Washington reaches an understanding with the regime and takes out key leaders, does not appear to be a “viable option” in the case of Iran.

More economic pressure

Iran’s economy continues to be heavily constrained by sanctions. Earlier this month, the US announced an additional 25% tariff on countries trading with Tehran and imposed new sanctions on vessels and companies accused of transporting Iranian oil.

Bohl said Washington may seek to further destabilize Iran economically in hopes of forcing it back to negotiations.

The idea is to crack Iran’s politics by causing more economic damage and pushing them toward what are essentially surrender terms, he said.

Iran is already grappling with a severe economic crisis, marked by the rapid devaluation of the rial, which helped trigger nationwide protests late last December.

Lucas, however, argued that additional sanctions may have limited effect without broad international support.

“I think the Trump folks can bluster a bit, but they really can only tighten sanctions if they have international action on the sanctions,” he said, adding that countries such as Russia and China are unlikely to support further pressure.


What comes next

Analysts said several indicators could signal whether the US is moving closer to escalation.

Bohl said warning signs include commercial airlines avoiding Iranian airspace, the evacuation of foreign embassies, travel advisories urging civilians to leave Iran, and Israeli authorities placing the population on heightened alert.

He added that the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the US Central Command area of responsibility significantly shortens the timeline for potential action.

Given that Iran has already been struck in previous confrontations and that tensions remain extremely high, any move could rapidly spiral.

“Because it is kind of an undeclared war between the two sides already, it could really turn on a dime and begin sudden escalation,” Bohl warned.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Analysis: Israel Assassinates to Change The Power Balance
  • HebaHeba
  • September 1, 2026

GAZA – The Gaza Strip is witnessing an escalation in Israeli assassinations and targeted killings. This is coinciding with US diplomatic efforts to advance the second phase of the 15-point Roadmap. This situation places the negotiation process in a highly sensitive position and to a political test.

This situation assessment made by Ibrahim Al-Hawajri for the Palestinian Center for Political Studies, analyzes the timing of the wave of attacks in the Strip for August 2026 and the American efforts led by US envoy Jared Kushner. It emphasizes however, that this correlation does not prove there is a direct causal relationship, but warrants monitoring and analysis.

Negotiations Under Fire

In late July 2026, Hamas agreed to a 15-point American roadmap for implementing the Sharm el-Sheikh Protocol commitments. These included confining and storing the movement’s weapons, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian technocratic administration to manage the Gaza Strip.

The Israeli government conditioned any withdrawal on the “genuine” and prior disarmament of Hamas, while the American-Egyptian proposal linked disarmament to a parallel withdrawal and a simultaneous reconstruction process.

On 16 August, a meeting was held in El Alamein between Jared Kushner, Nikolay Mladenov, and Tony Blair on one side, and Khalil al-Hayya, Egyptian intelligence chief Major General Hassan Rashad, and Qatari Minister Ali al-Thawadi on the other. The meeting lasted approximately 90 minutes.

This political activity coincided with the continuation of Israeli airstrikes on areas in Gaza, before the wave of attacks intensified following Kushner’s return and his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Escalating Targeting

The assessment noted a series of targeted attacks against figures associated with the Palestinian security and military establishment, including the killing of Colonel Wael al-Ladawi and his assistant, Major Ramez Abu Zureiq, on 26 July when their vehicle was bombed in Deir al-Balah.

Late July saw the assassination of the director of the Jabalia refugee camp police station, along with six officers and personnel. Less than three weeks later, Brigadier General Abdel Nasser al-Maqadma, the police chief of North Gaza Governorate, was also killed.

Two Israeli airstrikes on 19 August in Gaza City killed 10 Palestinians, including nine in the bombing of the municipal police headquarters, among them a woman and a child. Around 20 others were wounded. An Israeli military source also reported that a “Qassam Brigades commander” was targeted in the Nuseirat refugee camp.

A joint statement issued by Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey on 20 August condemned the Israeli attacks and called on the Trump administration’s Middle East Peace Council to ensure the Israeli government’s full compliance with the ceasefire agreement.

On 23 August, the Israeli army and Shin Bet announced the assassination of Ismail Abu Foul in the Maghazi area, claiming he was responsible for manufacturing explosive devices and anti-tank missiles.

Negotiating Pressure and Imposing Facts on the Ground

The assessment presents three dimensions to the escalation coinciding with diplomatic activity. The first is providing political and media cover for the strikes while international attention is focused on de-escalation efforts.

The second dimension is the depletion of the Palestinian leadership and security apparatus, necessitating a reorganization of ranks in parallel with managing sensitive negotiations.

The third dimension is the reframing of the cessation of assassinations as a bargaining chip that can be used to extract concessions, rather than as a fundamental requirement in a ceasefire agreement.

The assessment indicates that the Israeli narrative presents the targeted killings as military operations aimed at rebuilding combat capabilities, while Hamas denies the military status of several of those targeted and describes the targeting of police stations as an attack on civilian infrastructure.

Three Possible Paths

The assessment suggests that assassinations will continue in parallel with negotiations in the short term, given the ongoing disagreement over the sequence of disarmament and withdrawal. This could lead to protracted negotiations, partial agreements, and intermittent escalations.

The assessment also suggests a moderate likelihood of actual US pressure to halt the assassinations if the Trump administration deems Israeli operations a threat to its political project in Gaza. This would improve the chances of implementing the next phase of the agreement.

The assessment places the collapse of the negotiating track as the least likely but most dangerous scenario. An escalation of strikes and a retaliatory response could lead to a return to open confrontation and the collapse of the ceasefire.

Conclusion

The assessment concludes that the escalation of assassinations following Kushner’s visit does not prove there is a joint US-Israeli decision to escalate, but rather reveals a conflict over the rules of engagement for the next phase.

It indicates that the occupying government seeks to maintain its instruments of force, assassination, and field pressure alongside the negotiating table, while Washington attempts to push the parties toward a new political formula.

The assessment confirms that the future of the Gaza negotiations will not be determined solely within the confines of Cairo and Washington, but also by the realities on the ground. The party capable of imposing facts on the ground will be best positioned to influence the shape of any agreement reached at the negotiating table according to the Palestinian Information Center.

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Beyond Extermination: Zionist Strategy to End Palestinians

By Nawaf Al-Zaru

In light of what is happening in Gaza — a Zionist war of extermination of complete destruction and annihilation of entire neighborhoods and demolition of homes on the heads of its people in the many cities, towns, and villages of the Strip, amounting to a policy of ethnic cleansing — coupled with the revealed plans to displace and resettle them, and in light of the silent, genocidal war of uprooting in the West Bank, it is to be asserted this war is but another stage in the Zionist terror campaign against Palestinian existence and civilization.

Our people have faced more than 77 years of policies of ethnic cleansing and open Zionist war crimes in Palestine, but today the world remains silent, failing to show the same resolve as it does elsewhere, and with lame-duck international institutions like the World Criminal Court failing despite the Israeli atrocities and military incursions in Gaza, Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm-Nur Shams, Aqabat Jabr camp, Hebron and many other areas.

We have never witnessed such widespread destruction, mass killings, or genocide to children, women, and the elderly. We have never seen entire families burned alive as we have seen in Palestine since the beginning of the Nakba and the establishment of the Zionist entity in 1948.

We have never seen the complete demolition of cities, towns, villages, and neighborhoods, nor the complete erasure of a people’s civilization as is happening in Palestine, and Gaza especially. All these crimes were and continue to be committed in Palestine, broadcast to the eyes of the entire world, yet this world remains unmoved and untouched…!

Here, we will point to documents and testimonies related to the systematic destruction of Palestinian society as we have repeatedly mentioned in previous studies and reiterate here:

That the true, undeclared objectives of the Israeli occupation army is: Total destruction and demolition of Palestinian society.

Let’s set the record straight: What Benjamin Netanyahu and his Zionist war cabinet declared around-the-clock about their war aims — eliminating Hamas’s military capabilities and freeing the hostages (prisoners) — are nothing but false and deceptive objectives for public consumption. Their true, undeclared goals are the genocide of the Palestinian people, especially women and children, complete destruction of infrastructure (leveling everything above ground), and the mass displacement of Palestinians, with the entire Gaza Strip becoming uninhabitable.

An Israeli officer who served in the Gaza Strip revealed that the army’s missions here is almost entirely limited to securing large-scale demolition operations, which is a clear admission of the complete destruction of infrastructure and homes as being one of the war’s main objectives. In its July 18, 2025 edition, the Haaretz newspaper quoted the officer, identified only by his initials as saying: “The soldiers’ families need to understand what’s happening there. The primary, and almost sole, mission of the [Israeli] forces is securing the bulldozers’ demolition operations…”

He explained the operations are carried out under a military designation known as “roof-to- ground,” aiming to systematically destroy neighborhoods and infrastructure. According to the officer’s testimony, the Israeli army’s operations in the Gaza Strip are based on “massive demolition of homes,” without any precise intelligence about specific targets, repeating “what is happening is simply widespread destruction, carried out according to a pre-planned operational strategy and indicators.”

Meanwhile, Ronen Bergman, military affairs commentator for Yediot Aharonot, confirmed very early in this war “military pressure does not lead to the release of the hostages in Gaza, and the Israeli leadership knows this very well, but it is used as a pretext to continue the genocidal and destructive ground war.” Similarly, in an article by Joshua Frank published in the US Nation Magazine (January 16, 2024) he stated that “for Israel, brutality is the objective of its campaign against Gaza.” He asserted “Israel’s goal in bombing the Gaza Strip is to render it uninhabitable by the end of its relentless military campaign.”

So as not to confuse people about the true Zionist objectives behind this genocidal war, and to follow events with a strategic reading of the developments on the ground and the current and potential political agendas, he pointed to Israeli writer Yuval Abraham who documented the Israeli war plan objectives. He explained: According to sources who spoke to the joint research team, the targets in Gaza bombed by Israeli aircraft can be divided broadly into four categories:

The first category includes what are known as “tactical targets,” of standard military targets such as armed military cells, weapons depots, ground- and anti-tank missile launchers, launch pits, mortar positions, military headquarters, observation posts, and so on.

The second category refers to “underground targets,” primarily tunnels dug by Hamas under neighborhoods and under civilian homes. Air strikes on these targets can lead to the collapse of houses above or near the tunnels.

The third category of targets— most important and dangerous— are the “targets of force” including high-rise buildings and residential towers in city centers, and public buildings such as universities, banks, and government offices. The aim behind the deliberate bombing and destruction of such targets is to force the Palestinian community to emigrate.

The final category consists of “family homes.” The stated purpose of these attacks is to destroy private residences in order to assassinate a resident suspected of being an activist in Hamas or Islamic Jihad. However, Palestinian testimonies from the current war confirm that none of the families killed included any activists from these organizations.

The Israeli army, as demonstrated around-the-clock in Gaza and Lebanon, gives special attention to the third and fourth categories that are regarded as the true major strategic objectives and mean the complete annihilation of everything Palestinian on the land of the Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu’s strategy is to destroy Palestinian society in Gaza and force its population to leave

The defeat of 7 October, 2023, prompted Netanyahu to make the most important decision of his political career: To destroy and displace Palestinian society in Gaza as punishment for what happened in the settlements surrounding Gaza, just as the first Nakba is narrated in the Israeli narrative as punishment for the Palestinians for rejecting the partition plan and attacking Jewish society. Implementation is hesitant and statements are confusing, but actions are clear: “The government is rushing towards the annihilation of Gaza,” as Minister of Heritage Amichai Eliyahu states. This is the “complete victory” Netanyahu promised (Aluf Benn, Haaretz on 31 July, 2025).

Israelis: ‘We are all criminals and part of the genocidal family’

Israeli analyst Michael Sfard confirms the systematic nature of the destruction: “Israel is destroying Gaza now. Call it ethnic cleansing, call it annihilation, you can call it genocide, call it whatever you want. I have no doubt that whoever coined the term genocide, the Polish-Jewish jurist Raphael Lemkin, would have written with tears of shame that the Jewish state is committing genocide in Gaza. It is destroying the place and liquidating the human group that lives there. The physical destruction of Gaza’s space is systematic, house after house, public building after public building, infrastructure after infrastructure… A place that was home to more than a million people has been reduced to rubble. Educational institutions, clinics, shops, water, electricity, and sewage infrastructure, streets and sidewalks, all of it has turned to ash.”

Data calculated based on aerial photographs indicates 70 percent of the buildings in the Gaza Strip were either completely destroyed or damaged beyond repair. This was before Operation Gideon’s “Arava 2” and the fulfillment of the Defense Minister’s promise to the rabbis of “religious Zionism” that “Gaza will be like Beit Hanoun” (Michael Sfard, Haaretz, 29 August, 2025).

Researcher Dr. Walid Mustafa confirmed in his study, “The Mass Destruction of Palestinian Villages,” that “62.6% of all Palestinian villages that existed in Palestine were demolished by the Zionists. If we consider that some districts of Palestine did not fall entirely under enemy control in 1948, we find that the 468 villages destroyed before 1967 constituted 78.4% of the 598 Palestinian villages that fell under Zionist control that year.” The study’s documented tables also state “the number of Palestinian sites…” The number of villages that existed in Palestine according to the 1931 administrative divisions was 755, of which 472 were destroyed during 1948. At that time, they had 52,812 houses, and their population, according to the 1945 census, was 338,428.

In a report by the Israeli writer Zafrir Rinat, published in Haaretz and titled “Where Did the Arab Villages Disappear To?”, he stated: “Historians critical of the Zionist movement, in particular, such as Dr. Ilan Pappe, argue that the disappearance of Palestinian villages from their locations is part of a systematic and programmed policy to erase their existence in order to fabricate a new history that aligns with the Zionist narrative, which claims that the land was empty and was transformed into a green and prosperous land due to the activities of the Keren Kayemeth LeIsrael (KKL), also known as the Jewish National Fund and other similar organizations.” Pappe further states “the history of Palestine is being transferred to the era of the ancient Talmud.”

Another study in recent years by Naga Kedmon (as part of Peace and Development Studies commissioned by the University of Gothenburg in Sweden and directed by Professor Oren Yiftachel of Ben-Gurion University) found that “the Keren Kayemet forests, which include 86 Palestinian villages, are referred to as ‘Moroccan.’ While most sites have directional signs, only 15 percent mention the Arab village at the site, and the majority of texts in brochures, newspapers, and advertisements do not mention the names of the Palestinian villages at all, nor do they acknowledge their Arab identity.”

In this context, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz exclusively revealed a “premeditated campaign to demolish mosques.” Its correspondent, Meron Rapaport, noted “Israel demolished at least 120 mosques in the Palestinian villages it occupied in 1948, in addition to some Christian churches. It even demolished several synagogues…during this campaign.” He explained “this demolition, often carried out with dynamite, was intended to eliminate any Arab presence in the country and to preserve only what remained of Jewish heritage, erasing any Arab trace. It was as if the Israelis wanted to say this land belonged only to the Jews, and that there was no Arab presence in it.”

In his extensive report, which draws on a recently published book in London by Israeli archaeologist Raz Kletter, Rapaport adds he “was not surprised by what the Israelis did to the Palestinians at that time in terms of displacement and destruction, because if the Arabs had been victorious, they would not have done anything different.”

Rapaport quotes from Kletter’s book: “What happened was the radical destruction of cities and villages, the destruction of an entire civilization, with its present and its past, and of landmarks of life spanning 3,000 years, even the remaining synagogues in the demolished Arab neighborhoods, mosaics, and fortresses. Had it not been for some fanatics on this subject, like Yehoshua Heschel Yevin and others, they would have wiped everything off the face of the earth.” He emphasizes that “the demolition aimed to eliminate the remnants of the Arab presence that disturbed the Israeli leaders.”

Thus, the documents released from the Israeli army archives reveal “since the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, the Israeli army has worked to erase the traces of Arab villages and towns whose inhabitants were displaced and wiped off the map. It also carried out campaigns to blow up mosques and shrines on the orders of the then-commander of the Southern Front, Moshe Dayan, who, according to the Israeli historian, transformed Palestine into a devastated desert to obliterate the existing Arab civilization and establish Israel upon it.”

If we add to this to the myriad of Israeli, Palestinian, and British documents, it can be confirmed the policy of the comprehensive demolition of Palestinian cities and villages, and the policy of the mass expulsion of the Palestinian people, were considered fundamental pillars of the Zionist movement and the State of Israel.

This policy was considered one of the most closely guarded secrets in Israel, as Professor Israel Shahak confirms: “Before 1948, within the territory that became the State of Israel, this matter was one of the most closely guarded secrets in Israeli life. There is no publication, book, or pamphlet that discusses their number or locations. This is intentional, so that the accepted official myth of an empty land would be readily disseminated in Israeli schools and told to visitors and tourists.”

Therefore, we say that perhaps the Hebrew/Zionist documents and testimonies related to the Nakba and ethnic cleansing and the total destruction of Palestine at the hands of Zionist organizations and the Zionist state, which are being revealed gradually over widely-spaced periods, are among the most important documents that can condemn the generals of those organizations and the Zionist state for committing premeditated war crimes, and even bring them before the International Criminal Court, if the world is serious about that.

Perhaps the data of the current Palestinian scene, where the occupying state is committing a total holocaust against our people in Gaza, constitutes a blatant indictment against Zionist crimes that necessitates bringing the politicians and generals of the Israeli occupation state before the International Criminal Court without any hesitation if the world were serious…

This article by Nawaf Al Zaru was published on the Arabic Rai Al Youm website and reproduced on crossfirearabia.com. Mr Al Zaro lives in Amman, Jordan and is well-known for his extensive research on Palestinian affairs and the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. He has published many books and frequently contributes to Jordanian and Arab newspapers.

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