What Next For Moscow After Fall of Damascus

Events are rapidly unfolding before after the fall of the Syrian capital, Damascus, into the hands of the armed opposition forces that entered it without resistance because the Syrian army, under orders from its supreme commander, decided not to resort to bloody confrontations to prevent bloodshed and accept defeat in the face of a tripartite aggression well-planned in the dark rooms of Washington, Ankara and Tel Aviv.

The Russian authorities’ announcement, Sunday, of the arrival of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family to Moscow and granting them political asylum, confirms that the sudden developments currently taking place may be the tip of the iceberg.

There may be many surprises to come on all levels, as Syria is a jungle of weapons, and it is unlikely that the sudden surrender is just a maneuver, just like what happened in Iraq after the collapse of the Iraqi army in the face of the American invasion, and the goal now is to reposition, bow to the storm, and prepare to resist the occupation.

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The fall of Damascus is a fatal stab to Russia and its leadership, which the new authority in Syria has no affection for, and sees it as a strategic partner of the isolated Syrian regime. Its warplanes have not stopped bombing Idlib, Aleppo, Hama and Homs, and this Russian airstrike played a major role in the Syrian Arab Army regaining most of the cities and villages that were seized by the opposition forces supported by America, Europe and Turkey.

We do not know what President Bashar al-Assad’s plans are in the coming period. Will he resort to calm and withdraw from political work, in compliance with the conditions of political asylum, or will he make Moscow a base to manage a resistance that he will form and lead from his new exile.

News circulated in the past few days that countries supporting the deposed Syrian president, led by Russia, suggested he form a government in exile to confirm his non-recognition of the new government that may be formed in the coming few days to run the country, avoid a political vacuum, and prepare for holding general elections.

We do not know the extent of the accuracy of this news, and perhaps it is too early to try to extrapolate what events are coming in Syria, as only one day has passed since the fall of Damascus and President Assad’s flight to Moscow and his granting of political asylum.

However, what can be pointed out is that the picture seems blurry in Syria at the present time, as Damascus and the major Syrian cities have been exposed to a war led by armed Syrian opposition factions on behalf of America, Turkey and other Arab countries, unlike the direct American war in Iraq in 2003, in which more than 160,000 American soldiers participated, and Paul Bremer was installed as military governor of Iraq in a transitional phase.

Unfortunately, we can’t disagree with Benjamin Netanyahu when he said: “The fall of Damascus and the collapse of the ruling regime there is considered a historic day and a great victory for Israel.”

Damascus is the crown jewel of the axis of resistance, the main supporter of the Palestinian cause, and the stubborn opponent of normalization. The question remains: Will Netanyahu’s celebrations of this fall last long? We leave the answer to the coming days and months.

Abdel Bari Atwan is the Chief Editor of Al Rai Al Youm

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Can Arab States Stop The Israeli Genocide?

Neither the Israeli war nor the ethnic cleansing of Gaza will ever stop if there is no forceful, determined intervention from the outside. 

And primarily this intervention has to come from the Arab countries and the pan-Arab nation as a whole: If these states – so-called Arab brethren and Islamic affiliates bound by common language and culture – don’t stand up and say ‘no’ to Netanyahu’s bloody war on Gaza, now in its 15th month, the ethnic cleansing, devastation, destruction and possibly the near and future displacement of the Palestinian people will continue to be hummed.

No bland utterances

Arab countries, from the far-west to the center and all the way to the east must move beyond bland utterances and condemnations of the mindless bloody Israeli military actions on Gaza that has so far resulted in the killing of more than 50,000 people, internally displaced more than 2 million of the population with 14,000 dead yet to be recovered from under the millions-of-tons of rubble that needs years to clear out.

As well, and further stated by Palestinian activist Dr Mustafa Al Barghouti, Arab states have to now develop at least a two-pronged strategy to drive the message across that they will not stand ideally by and watch the Palestinian people of Gaza being massacred and driven to smithereens.

Arab countries, and incidentally this should have been done a long time ago, which have normalized with Israel must freeze their diplomatic relations with the Zionist entity. Their leaders must say to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that relations will remain cut and frozen and that no further relations will take place, until he ends the Israeli war on Gaza and from now on, its back to the “bad old days” of a black Cold War between the Arab countries and Israel. 

The message needs to be loud and made crystal clear by Arab leaders for Netanyahu and his extremist government and military men to stop the carnage, killing and mayhem that is being created in Gaza and its people.

Determined Arabs

It is only through such a determined approach that will force the Israeli government, its leaders and ministers to sit, think and possibly review their slaughter of the Gaza enclave. At the very least, they would be forced to put the “brakes on” to their “happy attitude” of committing their atrocious massacres carried out almost daily since 7 October, 2023.

What is needed is a credible deterrence with those in power moving beyond their pedestals and high chairs and plush stages and put words and action together for the Arab world is nowhere as helpless on this issue as it is being projected.

All of the 22 Arab countries have now a real opportunity to stop the Gaza massacres through the new American president at the White House Donald Trump. He forced Netanyahu’s hand for a temporary ceasefire starting 19th January, 2025 which continued for almost two months and he can do it again if he wanted to and/or forced to. At the moment there is no political will.

Effective tool

Despite the present-relaunching of the war on 19 March, basically through an American green-light, Arab countries can have an effective and meaningful role if they choose to. After all, Trump soon backed down when he first suggested that the USA take over Gaza and turn it a Middle East Riviera whilst displacing its people to neighboring countries such as Jordan and Egypt.

He soon retreated from pursuing such an idea especially when Arab capitals such as Cairo, Amman, Riyadh, Algiers, Beirut, Kuwait, Doha, Muscat and Abu Dhabi condemned such a move with Netanyahu even having the audacity to say  Palestinians can have their state in Saudi Arabia. Trump’s Riviera idea soon became bogged down but Israel shortly after, restarted its war on Gaza, again with the blessing of the US administration.

But here again, and today the Arab countries, can make their move. The USA has vital, strategic, economic and political interests in the world and these can be used in different ways to persuade Washington to pressure Tel Aviv to back down on Gaza, other than promising to continue its bloody onslaught on ordinary Palestinians in Gaza with the hope of getting rid of Hamas and which according to their calculations they can’t beat until 2027 and/or whenever.

Netanyahu must be made to stop! He is not doing so because of the ongoing military supplies and backing from the United States and from the muted Arab response which have to go beyond condemnation and denunciations. Arab states have the tools at their disposal, it is time for these to be uses effectively otherwise the Israeli genocide will continue and expand.

This comment is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website.

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Trump, Iran And The ‘Nuclear Fight’

Experts say the Middle East region is poised on an impending war with the top protagonists being the USA, Israel and Iran.  They stand on a military pedestal of violent conflict where Armageddon has become the new catchphrase.

The man at the center of it all is US president Donald Trump who has been elected on a so-called global “peace” ticket but is fueling the worldwide escalation with his rhetoric.

He is telling Iran, nay warning it, to either hitch out and agree to a new accord on the country’s nuclear file or face the American wrath where its Persian cities and nuclear facilities would be wildly attacked in a first-time development that is turning international relations upside down.

And so a war of words began between Tehran and Washington since Trump sent a stern letter to Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, telling him to submit to a new nuclear agreement to stall his country’s nuclear facilities or face extensive US bombing. 

This was a callous, stark warning. The international system has never, till now, faced such discursive diplomatic parlance, even at the height of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.

The Iranian leadership saw Trump’s verbiage as an outright threat and refused to submit, even telling US president that Iran will not be bullied and he can to “go to hell”, a comment made by Iranian president Massoud Pezeshkian. He was speaking for the Ayatollah and the top leadership in the country.

Since then however, and in spite of the occasional utterings, recently made by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Iraghchi that Tehran would respond quickly and heavily to any outside attack, both sides have been involved in a “jostling affair” issuing different and irk statements short of the war-mongering tirade Trump started.

Military brink

Today, and on the face of it, both sides appear to want to pull back from the military brink. The Iranians are now saying they would be prepared to negotiate but only indirectly through Oman, the country that has traditionally served as a consummate link between Washington and Tehran.

Whilst the Trump administration may be contemplating such a fact, although it’s on record for stating it would prefer direct face-to-face negotiations involving fully-fledged American and Iranian expert teams in the field of nuclear weapons and proliferation, Washington has not closed the doors to such an offer from Tehran and it is still considering it which means it might be softening its position.

But there is another snag to this. Iranian officials have stated they want confidence-building measures from the Trump administration and don’t believe in negotiations under threat but this appears to be what is happening today.

As the diplomatic chit chat continues, Washington is sending military reinforcements with jet fighters, mass bombs and missiles to the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and the Red Sea as part of their stepped-up fight against the Houthis and potentially against Iran, both of whom are against the Israeli military onslaught on the Gaza Strip which is being financed by the USA.

Thus, what is happening now is that both sides are involved in sending out mixed signals despite the military escalation and war of words with Trump in what is becoming his customary U-turns. He is now saying that he doesn’t want a fight with Iran and is prepared for negotiations. 

But the ball is turning so to speak. For one thing Israel has long sought deadly strikes on Iranian cities and nuclear facilities and for it, today this is a “golden opportunity” being flanked and supported by US warships in the area.

Israel sees such a series of strikes as more urgent than before because after 2018 when Trump got the USA out of the nuclear deal, Iran started once again to boost its uranium enrichment program and many argue it’s very near to achieving a nuclear bomb and capability.

But that may be over-stating the fact, because Iran has always stated its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and its officials have maintained an official dialogue with the countries it originally made a deal with in 2015 officially named as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

So the current escalation may be tinged with diplomatic talk for although Trump maybe rash in what he says, there is usually a back up plan up his sleeve of not reaching beyond the military brink with brinkmanship being played at the highest levels.

This comment is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website.

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