Syria: A Hot Political Potato

By Dr Khairi Janbek

All eyes are on Syria, simply because the only thing known about how the new Syria will look like is frankly, the unknown. What is prevailing in the new predictions and analysis is at best, and at worst blunt fears.

Of course, this is understandable considering the composition of the groups which are now trying to run the country. What is vey disconcerting however, is how the international media presented the war prior to the fall of Damascus in no more than a side show, giving the impression that, as big Syrian cities fell one after the other in the hands of the rebels, that an agreement was likely to be struck which will solve the concept peaceably. Well, such an agreement was not struck, and the victorious rebellion became the hot potato in the hands of all.

Now, how will the new regime look like in Syria? Frankly your guess is as good as mine. Will they act momentarily in a pluralistic manner, then adopt political Islam as regime ideology? Again, only time will tell, but also that would depend primarily, on the prevailing regional and international actors and players.

For a start, the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey will not greatly depend on the shape of the new regime, so long of course, as the new regime in Damascus continues to protect the Russian interests in warm water bases, and be a wall against Kurdish armed groups threatening Turkish interests.

Then of course there is Israel, which after it destroyed Syrian military capabilities, has no fear of war with Damascus, but does fear the potential presence of a regime adopting political Islamist trappings on its borders, which it will use as an excuse use to expand and probably annex Syrian, and maybe Lebanese territories before the dust settles down.

However, when it comes to the Arab neighbors of Syria, Jordan and Iraq, it’s only natural they would feel concerned but for different reasons. For Jordan, the recent history of Iraqi political instability and the associated acts of terrorism are still fresh in the mind of everyone in the Kingdom, so in no uncertain terms, Jordan would wish to see on its border, a regime adopting political Islam, lest it suffers once more from terror acts that are likely to push for military action and in which it doesn’t wish to be involved in.

As for Iraq, the sectarian troubles are still fresh in the minds of everyone. Certainly the Iraqi government doesn’t wish to see a regime on its borders which has the potential of igniting an unwanted sectarian civil war. As for the rest of the Arab countries, the question remains theoretical – plainly speaking being against political Islam .

As for Syria itself, it’s rather banal to repeat the obvious which is, that it is pluralistic country. But, how can you mange such a country, if indeed this is the intention intention and not shoving it up everyone’s throat ideology by blood and fire.

For a start every community, ethnic and religious, has to feel secure, and secondly they need to know that they have a stake in the future of the country, and that can only happen by establishing a truly functioning parliament freely elected by all of its constituents, then adopt a prime ministerial system of government accountable to the people with a titular president of the republic. No political party should be prohibited to field parliamentary candidates except those associated with armed groups.

At the end of the day, the only thing which will turn the current victorious rebels into extremist islamists is the specter of internal civil conflict which everyone is trying to avoid.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian commentator currently based in Paris.

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How is an Extremist Marketed in Syria?

As the Syrian regime collapsed, Israel shifted its efforts towards redrawing the security geography and penetrating deeper into Syrian territory in an attempt to establish a future reality where some strategic Syrian land would remain under Israeli control and surveillance. These efforts included targeting Syria’s military infrastructure and dismantling its army’s arsenal, with the aim of creating a demilitarised Syria and rendering its geography unusable in any future equation that might target Israel.

While the world has been preoccupied with tracking the movements of the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (Ahmad al-Sharaa), his transformation in presence and rhetoric has drawn attention. This appears to be part of a strategy to market him as a suitable political option for the next stage. Despite his repeated assertions about respecting diversity within Syrian society, maintaining the country’s unity, and ensuring a democratic transition, doubts remain about HTS’s ability to translate these statements into practical action.

Al-Jolani, who currently leads the Syrian scene as a figure representing an ideological stance, may face serious challenges in accepting others, managing differences, or embracing the principle of power-sharing. His initial steps, forming a homogeneous government and attempting to dominate power, indicate a lack of a genuine strategy to address Syria’s social complexities and political legacy. The regime’s collapse may lead to significant difficulties in dealing with this legacy, both in its security and bureaucratic aspects. Such an approach could provoke expected reactions from various internal factions, such as the Druze and Kurds, or even within Idlib itself, who see this monopolisation of political decisions as a threat to their interests and future.

While simplifying al-Jolani and HTS’s rise to power by emphasising the oppressive image of the previous regime may make the Syrian scene appear clearer, the complexity of the current reality cannot be ignored. International support from the US and regional backing from Turkey may not fully guarantee a political transition, as the real challenge lies in how HTS handles extending its influence over the entirety of Syrian territory, a goal yet to be achieved. Additionally, integrating all segments of Syrian society into a national project remains nearly impossible for an ideologically driven organisation that struggles to embrace political diversity or power-sharing principles.

In recent years, the Biden administration took a notable step in Afghanistan by withdrawing and leaving the country to the Taliban, later marketed desperately as a reformed, moderate movement. Today, this phenomenon is being repeated with HTS, as promises to remove it from the terrorist list, distinguish it from other extremist groups, and present al-Jolani as a progressive, politically competent figure gain traction. However, removing HTS from the terrorist list warrants careful consideration of the potential repercussions. Most extremist groups may adopt escalation and rebellion as a primary strategy in the coming phase, particularly in their competition with each other and in their efforts to gain recognition as viable governing entities. This trend could extend beyond Syria’s borders.

Additionally, this development may reignite aspirations among Islamic parties, which retreated after the Arab Spring, to resume their pursuit of power. The symbolism of certain actions since the Syrian regime’s collapse, such as al-Jolani’s speech at the Umayyad Mosque, framing the event as a victory for the Islamic nation rather than a triumph for Syria’s opposition, and the newly appointed Prime Minister Mohammad al-Bashir delivering his first address from a Friday sermon pulpit at the same mosque, reflects an ideological agenda being marketed as the product of a political rather than religious revolution.

Political transition in Syria remains a challenging and complex process due to historical, social, economic and institutional factors. The risk of internal conflict remains significant, as many Syrian factions have yet to express their stance or acceptance of current developments. Furthermore, ceding control of their areas of influence will not be easy. The position of Daesh also remains ambiguous, with its movements since the regime’s fall unclear.

The region may be on the brink of significant repercussions resulting from what has happened and how things will develop in Syria, both politically and in terms of security. The next phase may also see Israel advancing practical measures on the ground before the Trump administration returns to the White House, including annexing areas of the West Bank, securing its borders with Lebanon and Syria, and striking farther targets which Israel considers to be fronts of Iranian influence extending from Iraq to Yemen and even inside Iran.

Dr Amer Al Sabaileh, a professor in the University of Jordan, is a columnist in The Jordan Times

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Dysfunctional Netanyahu

If all the criticism directed at Israel’s current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, fails to unseat him, then there is something deeply troubling about Israeli democracy—it is fundamentally dysfunctional.

Netanyahu has been the most influential architect of Israel’s policies and politics since 1996, when he first became prime minister.

He has often been quoted as saying, “Israel has no negotiating partner on the Palestinian side.”

Yet, we should ask: Where is the negotiating partner on the Israeli side?

Since taking office, Netanyahu has waged wars against nearly all of Israel’s neighbours, particularly Lebanon, Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and Syria and the occasional bouts with Iraq and Iran.

If we tally all the conflicts under his leadership, they exceed ten, many of them prolonged and devastating.

The cumulative cost, both in human lives and property, is staggering—over $500 billion lost and at least 100,000 people killed.

Netanyahu has systematically violated agreements, expropriated land for illegal settlements, and sanctioned the destruction and pillaging of homes, hospitals, schools and infrastructure.

His policies have included uprooting trees, destroying livelihoods, and killing tens of thousands of civilians, including children and women.

He stands as an indicted war criminal and is currently being tried in Israeli courts on charges of bribery, fraud, and abuse of power.

Many respected Israeli voices—authors, journalists, political analysts, human rights activists, lawyers, peace advocates, as well as his political allies and adversaries—express anger and even sometimes contempt for him, criticising his deceit and betrayal.

Every time Netanyahu insisted on engaging in dialogue with the late King Hussein or King Abdullah II, shortly after his army would commit grave atrocities against Palestinian civilians in the occupied territories.

Thus creating the false impression of a sequitur relationship between the meeting and the atrocities.

He even welcomed the Israeli guard who killed two Jordanians at the Israeli embassy in Amman with open arms, celebrating him instead of subjecting him to trial, despite Jordan’s accepting the murderer’s return to Israel, out of respect for the international diplomatic protocols.

Why does Netanyahu continue to act with such impunity? His actions appear to be deeply influenced by the ideology of his father, Benzion Netanyahu.

Born in Warsaw, Poland, Benzion served as the secretary and close aide to Ze’ev Jabotinsky, who instilled in him—and later his son Benjamin—the principles of revisionist Zionism.

It is exceedingly difficult to make peace with the proponents of the maximalist and revisionist branch of Zionism, which was established by the extremist Abba Ahimeir.

Although Benzion was a historian specializing in the history of Jews In Spain—a history rich with examples of tolerance and coexistence between Muslims and Jews under Islamic rule—he chose to become a disciple and propagator of revisionist Zionism. He became a staunch spokesperson for this ideology in the United States.

To better understand the radicalisation of Netanyahu and his father, one need look no further than the statements made by their mentor, Jabotinsky.

The following quotes are sourced from betarus.org, a well-known Zionist website:

1.“We, the Zionists, all applaud, day and night, the iron wall.”

This is the same iron wall that neo-historian Avi Shlaim described as being created to hammer Arab heads against, until they agree to Zionist claims to their lands.

2.“We hold that Zionism is moral and just, and since it is moral and just, [that means] justice must be done, regardless of whether Joseph, Simon, Ivan, or Ahmet (Ahmad) agree with it or not.”

3.Finally, Jabotinsky declared, “We were not created in order to teach morals and manners to our enemies. We want to hit back at anyone who harms us—only someone who can hate his enemies can be a faithful friend to those who love him.”

With sentiments like these, what chances does a serious, just, and lasting peace—or perhaps any peace at all—have?

Dr Jawad Al Anani, a former Jordanian government minister, contributed this piece to The Jordan Times.

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Fragmented Arab Nation May Yet Rise!

Dr. Saad Naji Jawad

The Arab nation has never lost its compass as it is doing so these days. It has never gone through such a state of disintegration, despair and inability to do anything since the World War I, and be satisfied with everything that others are doing to it.

If we go back in history when Britain and France occupied the Arab nation and divided it in the way we see it now, we will find that the spirit of revolution, liberation, love of independence and rejection of direct and indirect colonialism remained glowing within its societies.

Many national movements succeeded in obtaining independence, even if it was nominal, and some liberation movements succeeded in revolting against colonialism and expelling it from their lands. Then the Arab countries that gained their independence stood by those that were still struggling for that goal. When some Arab governments stood by the tripartite aggression against Egypt, demonstrations filled the streets, and the popular tide succeeded in toppling some of those regimes.

The same thing happened after the outbreak of the Algerian revolution, where all the masses of the nation and its independent countries stood by until it succeeded in achieving complete independence from French colonialism.

After the Bandung Conference (Asian-African Solidarity Conference 1955), which was the nucleus of the Non-Aligned Movement (1961) in the shadow of the Cold War, the late Gamal Abdel Nasser succeeded in leading the nation to a position that was taken into account, and the bloc was able to force the two world powers to respect the point of view of the movement’s members and supported the independence of most Asian and African countries. Some Arab capitals, Cairo in particular, became the headquarters and refuge for all Asian and African liberation movements.

Alarm bells

Indeed, that stage set the alarm bells ringing in Western countries about the possibility of the Arab homeland becoming an influential force in the regional and international arenas with its wealth. It is no exaggeration to say the entity that Western countries created in Palestine, the heart of the Arab homeland, was the one that activated this bell and kept its voice constantly loud.

This entity felt that its existence, which passed with the approval and submission of the Arab regimes that were groaning under colonial rule, and its attempts to expand beyond the area granted to it by the United Nations in the partition resolution in 1947, became clearly threatened, especially after the emergence of national regimes that rejected its existence.

This feeling increased when Nasser’s Egypt, with Syrian support, adopted the armed Palestinian resistance in Gaza and the West Bank since the mid-1950s, and other Arab countries followed suit after the 1967 setback.

Hence the decision to work to stifle any Arab renaissance project that could stand in the way of Zionist ambitions with American-British-European support was made. This decision was translated into two wars, the first of which failed (Suez and the tripartite aggression of 1956), and the second succeeded greatly (June 1967).

This introduction should not make us overlook the fact that those who helped the Israeli-American-British plan succeed were the Arab regimes and governments, which despite the national intentions of some of them, failed to create democratic institutions and societies that stand behind the regimes and support them.

Isolated regimes

Rather, it can be said these regimes isolated themselves with their oppressive policies, which they naively justified as necessary to protect revolutions and national experiences from foreign conspiracies. This is why a schism occurred between the peoples and their rulers.

This gap widened when the majority of citizens in all Arab countries felt marginalized and had no say in what was happening.  They participated in wars against their will, were forced to suffer defeats against their will, and accepted agreements that had no interest for them or their future generations. Most of them found themselves, and still are, living below the poverty line, while their wealth went into the pockets of the corrupt and the rulers.

The same failure befell other leaders who possessed enormous wealth. Instead of harnessing this wealth to build an economic, industrial, cultural, and agricultural renaissance in all Arab countries, they put all this enormous potential in the service of the American-Zionist project that aims to dismantle the Arab homeland, believing that this project is the one that will protect them and keep them in power.

These parties spent hundreds of billions of dollars to support civil wars within the Arab homeland, at a time when a small percentage of this money would have been enough to create an economic, cultural, and social renaissance in all Arab countries.

What is happening in our Arab region today is a path that began in 2003, then moved to most Arab countries (under the name of the Arab Spring), and resulted in the destruction of Libya, Syria and Yemen, then moved after the Al-Aqsa Flood to Palestine, to Gaza, then Lebanon and last but not least in Syria, where Israel and the United States were able to achieve easy victories they did not deserve.

Terrified

This even included the right-wing axis that normalizes and satisfied with Israeli expansion, which was terrified by what is happening. The problem is that people’s memories are narrow, weak and sometimes non-existent. What is happening now in Syria in particular happened twice in Iraq in 2003 and after, and in 2014 after the invasion of the terrorist ISIS gangs.

The result of both operations was catastrophic by all standards.

However, there are those who still support what America and Israel are doing and seek their help and obey them. A not insignificant group, including this writer, believe that the basis of the current disaster is the failure to activate the principle of (unity of arenas) after the launch of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.

Perhaps there is no benefit to be gained from discussing such a topic with those who are driven by sectarian and racist fanaticism, or driven by narrow and limited interests and painful personal experiences (this is if we assume good intentions and the absence of suspicious connections), as all of these people cannot look at or discuss matters from the perspective of the supreme national interest.

Turkish ambitions

Perhaps one of the most difficult roles to explain to some is that played by Turkey, not only practically, but also in terms of its future intentions that harbor ill intentions for this nation, including talk in Istanbul and by official bodies about (the necessity of restoring Aleppo and then Mosul and annexing them to Turkey), then wrapping this up with honeyed words about (preserving the unity of Syrian territory).

Today, Turkish activity has extended to the Horn of Africa region, where it has succeeded in achieving an important historical reconciliation between Somalia and Ethiopia, a reconciliation that ultimately serves Addis Ababa and its policy, driven by Israel, in thirsting Egypt and depriving it of a large percentage of the Nile waters with the resulting major effects.

In other words, the destructive and fragmentation plan has begun to move to Egypt. Turkey has previously tried a strategy of destabilizing neighboring Arab countries, and that policy backfired, but it seems that it is not only the Arabs who are characterized by weak memories and failure to learn from experiences.

Yes, the Arab nation today lives on the edge of disaster, and it is threatened with fragmentation more than it is fragmented now, and what is more painful is that the occupying state, which was standing on the brink of a major defeat for itself and its expansionist settlement project, is today achieving, with American and Turkish support, and a cynical Russian, Iranian and official Arab position, a victory that it did not dream of.

It is not unlikely that after Trump comes to power, this will not only be strengthened, but new Arab countries will be forced to accept it, and it may even reach the point of forcing the International Criminal Court to withdraw the arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Galant, and the matter may extend to the International Court of Justice and prevent it from issuing a ruling on the genocide committed by the occupation in Gaza.

This bleak picture is only alleviated by the continuation of the resistance in Gaza despite everything that has happened and is happening, and the low state in which the occupying entity has fallen in the eyes of the world, especially the West, and the increasing boycott operations against it and its being considered a pariah and rogue regime.

The Arab nation has accustomed us to succeeding in difficult times in rising from the ashes and achieving victories despite all the setbacks. Perhaps such a thing now requires a period of time that is not short, but in the end this is what will happen at the hands of generations that have not rejected humiliation, subordination and the promotion of divisions.

And hope for this cannot be cut off no matter how long it takes. We have no choice but to take as an example of what was stated in the Holy Quran in the Battle of the Trench when the Muslims reached an unprecedented state of despair until the noble verse was revealed: In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful “Or do you think that you will enter Paradise while such [trial] has not yet come to you as it came to those who passed on before you? They were touched by poverty and hardship and were shaken until the Messenger and those who believed with him said, “When is the victory of Allah?” Unquestionably, the victory of Allah is near.”  God’s words are the truth.

The writer is an Iraqi academic who contributed this piece to Al Rai Al Youm

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‘Arab Spring’ Continues Withering

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

After December 2010 when a desperate and angry Tunisian young man of the name of Mohammad Bouazizi, dramatically immolated himself, an unprecedented wave of mass protests against incumbent totalitarian regimes swept five Arab capitals: Tunisia, Cairo, Tripoli, Yemen and Damascus.

The simultaneous civic uprising in these countries was deceitfully baptized as the “Arab Spring”, which initially won the hearts of millions of Arabs. But it did not take long before the average Arab citizen started realizing that it was one thing to get rid of a dictator or topple a regime, and completely another thing to have a plan for the day after!

It was the same course of events in the five capitals except for Tunisia: Street demonstrations, clashes with police, havoc and death, under the watchful eyes of disguised outside interference and finally a forced humiliating departure, imprisonment or execution of the incumbent ruler and his entourage.

In Tunisia, the military sat on the fence! Consequently, the violence and loss of life was minimal there, while in the other four countries the toll was higher and kept rising until the end.

The last leg of the fake “Arab Spring” was Syria, where the clashes between the forces of the regime and the opposition groups, mostly of Islamic orientation, dragged on and gradually turned into open urban warfare.

Syria’s distorted model of the “Arab Spring” took nearly 14 years, simply because the regime, at a certain crucial turning point in 2015, resorted to outside direct support, namely from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

Opposition groups in Syria and their sympathizers never forgot or forgave the brutal crackdown they were subjected to in the city of Hama back in 1982 by the Hafez Al-Assad’s regime.

Of course Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah’s response to help Assad’s regime in 2015, was not an act of charity. Each party had their own agenda and motivations; Iran sought to ascertain its regional clout, while continuing to arm Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria and Iraq; Russia wanted to strengthen its foothold in Syria in a move to counter balance American encroaching measures in northern-eastern Syria, the oil rich land, where the latter supported the local Kurdish population.

Hezbollah was paying back the debt for the Syrian regime that facilitated the transfer of Iranian military hardware.

Today, Syrians are celebrating the end of the 53rd year of the rule of the Assad dynasty, except, maybe by a handful of them. As the saying goes: Loss and defeat are born orphans; victory and success gets many adopters!

The Syrian groups who took over from the previous regime are multiple in number and diverse in outlook; like an art work of a mosaic, from a distance, it looks picturesque and colorful, but from within and in detail, it clearly lacks coherence and chemistry.

As things stand now in Syria and its surroundings, there is not much room for optimism, despite the big change! Many outside players are gossiping about the future of this beleaguered country in ways that reveal that what they are doing is more than gossiping. They are working on concrete ideas and plans for the day after in Syria while, during the coffee breaks, they watch those who are dancing and chanting in the squares and streets of Damascus!

This opinion was especially written for Crossfire Arabia by Saleem Ayoub Quna who is a Jordanian author writing on local, regional and international affairs and has two books published. He has a BA in English Literature from Jordan University, a diploma from Paris and an MA from Johns Hopkins University in Washington. He also has working knowledge of French and German.

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