How Do You Deal With a ‘Political Earthquake’?

CrossFireArabia
Opinion
March 17, 2025

The Middle East has long been accustomed to dramatic events and repeated surprises. However, it is undeniable that what came before October 7 is fundamentally different from what followed.

This shift is not only due to the ongoing wars that have spread beyond Gaza to other fronts, nor solely because of the consequences these conflicts have triggered across the region. More significantly, it has exposed the harsh realities the region faces, from the collapse of the concept of the state and its implications to the erosion of national identities and the emergence of new ethnic, sectarian, and geographical standards reshaping political maps.

Over the past years, the failure of the nation-state model, coupled with its reduction to authoritarian concepts, has played a pivotal role in deepening the psychological division in many countries, a division that, in many cases, precedes geographical fragmentation.

In the current geopolitical landscape, Gaza is no longer the Gaza we once knew. With the absence of a viable Arab-led solution, the US administration, despite its often-contradictory diplomatic statements, still keeps the depopulation of Gaza on the table as a practical resolution. Meanwhile, the West Bank is experiencing Israeli operations aimed at bringing about a radical transformation, one that all parties may soon have to accept as a new reality.

Syria, too, has entered a state of turmoil that makes it increasingly difficult to revert to its former political and territorial structure. Whether through shifts in internal power dynamics or anticipated geographical and political changes, Syria is on a path of transformation.

These unprecedented changes, which directly impact Jordan, impose urgent requirements for adaptation and strategic engagement with new realities. This new era demands a shift in priorities, making “Jordanian-focused thinking” a fundamental approach to navigating the geopolitical and security challenges unfolding across the region.

This strategic recalibration must take place on three levels. The first involves managing relations with the current U.S. administration, which has been in the White House for only a few weeks yet has already triggered a geopolitical earthquake on the global stage. For Jordan to remain a key regional player, it must employ new tools and diplomatic tactics that emphasize effectiveness and tangible results, especially considering that this administration is highly focused on reassessing the utility of aid provided to its allies.

The second is the regional shift, where several key issues stand out. The evolving relationship with Israel, which is shifting dramatically and deteriorating from bad to worse, requires a reconsidered strategy for future engagement. The relationship with Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, demands greater attention, not only because Saudi Arabia remains the only pillar of stability in the region but also due to its economic and political influence, which could prove crucial for Jordan in the coming phase. In this context, the concept of “political and economic integration” should be the foundation for shaping and strengthening ties between the two countries.

Perhaps the most pressing regional challenge is Jordan’s approach to Syria. Changes are already unfolding in the areas adjacent to Jordan’s northern border, creating a new reality that Jordan must navigate carefully. It is imperative to formulate a strategy that not only secures borders but also leverages new political and economic configurations to serve Jordan’s long-term interests.

The third is the domestic, and most important recalibration, how does Jordan adapt to these external shifts and their internal repercussions? This phase demands a new political discourse and a fresh approach to managing internal affairs. Shielding Jordan from external shocks, narratives of fragmentation, sectarian polarization, and social discord requires a two-pronged strategic response: strengthening the bureaucratic system and reinforcing national identity.

This necessitates a well-crafted national narrative, a reinvigoration of collective national consciousness, and tangible policy actions that signal the beginning of a new phase of resilience and transformation, one that will be the defining test of the coming period.

Dr Amer Al Sabaileh is a columnist in the Jordan Times

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

Opinion

Kareem Khan – Chronology of a Scandal: A View From Amman

Saleem Ayoub Quna
July 29, 2026

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

Another somber episode in the ongoing Middle East saga is about to be quietly scrapped by manipulative overt hands and emerging developments, that are no less than disappointing!

The story of the main character of this episode began long time ago in Edinburgh, Scotland, in 1970, when a child was born to a dermatologist Scottish mother and a Pakistani father of the same trade!

The child was named Kareem Asad Ahmad Khan, who grew up to educate himself in Law, later to pursue a judicial career, until he landed as top job in The Hague, the Netherland, in 2021, and eventually becoming the Chief Persecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

It was at this juncture that he replaced Ms. Fatou Bensouda, a lady of Gambian origin, who was seeking to investigate the never-ending tragic situation in Gaza and the West Bank under the Israeli military occupation.

Scuffle With Mossad

Bensouda stepped down after 17 years of service at the ICC, including the last nine years as Chief Prosecutor. On her point of departure, she made it clear that the Israeli head of intelligence, Yossi Cohen, met her more than once and told her to drop the charges she was making against Israel’s actions in the two Palestinian territories, but she would not bow, until she officially resigned on 15 June, 2021.

And so since the beginning of his new appointment the new chief prosecutor, and like his predecessor, Khan was charged of continuing to investigate cases, situations and/or individuals suspected of offenses such as genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and aggression, where and whenever, they occurred, whether in Ukraine, Darfur, Belarus, Afghanistan or in Gaza and which indeed become his nightmare, magnified by an Israeli genocide on all accounts that began on 7 October 2023 and lasted for 2 years, 9 months and more, and was declared ‘De Jure’ in October 2025.

No one warned Mr. Khan that he was stepping into a thick minefield, or if they did, he would only listen to his heart and conscience! For that, he must have been bracing for the worse, for himself, and probably for the thousands of war victims he was investigating.

The war in Gaza led to the death and injury of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, (nearly 75,000 dead and more than 200,000 injured), whereas for the Israelis, they suffered 1200 dead and at least over 5000 injured.

So, in May 2024, Khan adopting a “balanced” position despite the flagrant disparity between the two sides on all levels, announced the arrest warrants for five main individuals directly involved in Gaza war: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and the top three leaders in Hamas: Yehya Sinwar, Mohammd Dief and Ismail Haniyeh.

Days after the issuance of these arrest warrants, the name of a certain local female employee (known only as Sarah) suddenly popped up at the ICC, as the alleged victim of sexual harassment at the hands of non-other than the honorable Chief Prosecutor, Kareem Khan!

In an orchestrated follow up, the US Treasury Department in February 2024 imposed sanctions on Khan, after President Donald Trump sanctioned the ICC judges for issuing the said arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Galant.

And in May 2025 Khan stepped down as Chief Prosecutor due to the said allegations of sexual misconduct, and was suspended pending a vote by the state members of the ICC.

In July 2026 Khan was ousted from his post as 82 out of 125 ICC member states voted, in secret, in favor of his dismissal!

As for the Palestinian leaders who were also involved in that war, Israel took things in their hands and ended the life of the three Hamas leaders: Mohammd Deif was killed in Khan Younes on 13 July 2024, Yehya Sinwar killed in the same city on 16 October, 2024 and Ismael Haniyeh was assassinated in faraway Tehran on 31 July, 2024.

The question now is whether the candidate for the Chief Prosecutor post at the ICC, will follow suit in the footsteps of his two predecessors, regarding the unfinished business of atrocities and war crimes around the globe, or will he/she be somebody of a new breed of international prosecutors?

Soon we may have a clue! But personally, I am not optimistic!

Opinion

West Bank: A Ticking Time-Bomb

CrossFireArabia
July 28, 2026

By Ismail Al Sharif

Imagine you are sitting with your children at home when a violent knock shakes the door. You open it to find a blond, European-looking man holding a weapon in one hand and a Torah or Talmud in the other, with soldiers behind him.

He orders you to leave the house, saying: “God gave me this house 3000 years ago.” You reply, “But it’s my home; I was born here, and my father and grandfather were born here before me.”

They push you aside, storm into your house, and throw your furniture outside. Your children cry, they throw your wife out, and your blood boils. You wrest the weapon from the blond man and shoot him. They kill you, and then a bulldozer comes to demolish your house.

The next day, the world’s newspapers headline: “Army kills terrorist after he tried to attack occupation soldiers.”

You might go out in the morning to graze your sheep, and in the distance, you see a few fair-haired young men who have pitched a tent on a fenced-off plot of land on a hill. At first, the scene seems fleeting, but soon you see them approaching your land, wandering among your olive trees and your flock, then attacking you, stealing your livestock, and burning your trees.

After that, they seize part of your land and annex it to the area they have taken over. The fence extends day by day, growing longer and wider. Over time, your land, and the land of your relatives, friends, and all the people of your village, becomes part of the nucleus of a new settlement.

Roads change, streets are closed, and checkpoints are erected, until reaching a place only a few hundred meters away becomes a journey that takes hours.

These scenes are repeated daily in the West Bank, where settlers terrorize, assault, and kill Palestinians under the protection of the occupation army, while ministers from the occupation government appear in the background of these attacks. The goal is clear: To empty the West Bank of its original inhabitants, both Muslims and Christians, and uproot them from their land, paving the way for its seizure and Judaization.

All of this is happening in full view of the world, amidst President Donald Trump’s objections and the condemnation of the international community, at a time when his 20-point peace plan was announced in a celebratory atmosphere on September 29th of last year.

However, time has revealed that this plan was nothing but ink on paper. The occupation continues to control over 60% of the Gaza Strip, demolishing buildings and bulldozing agricultural lands in the areas under its control. It also continues its daily bombardment of the Strip, which, since the plan’s launch, has resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 Gazans and injured more than 3,600 others. This is while the siege continues and humanitarian aid is prevented from entering.

As for the West Bank, settlement outposts have expanded, and the occupation government recognized 19 additional settlements after the plan’s launch. This coincides with an unprecedented escalation in settler attacks, the continued demolition of homes and displacement of their residents, as well as the ongoing incursions into Palestinian cities, villages, and refugee camps.

The government of war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu makes no secret of its plans to annex the West Bank and thwart any attempt to establish a Palestinian state, while its leader orders the occupation army to launch continuous military campaigns in West Bank cities, villages, and refugee camps.

The West Bank today sits atop a powder keg, fueled by accumulated feelings of anger, fear, frustration, and resentment, awaiting a spark that could ignite the situation. Then, the sporadic confrontations could transform into a widespread popular uprising, which could very well extend beyond the borders of the West Bank.

No one knows how wide the circle of confrontation might widen, where it might spread, or the extent of the repercussions it might have in Jerusalem, the Palestinian territories within Israel, and neighboring countries. Arab governments and their armies may find themselves facing mounting popular and political pressure, pushing them either to engage in a confrontation they do not want, or to take positions and actions they have long sought to avoid.

This article was originally written in Arabic by Ismail Al Sharif and published in Jordan’s daily newspaper Ad Dustour and is reprinted in crossfirearabia.com. Mr Al Sharif long worked in newspaper management and publishing in Amman.