Nervous Mideast Awaits: Gaza, Lebanon and Possibly Iran

In recent days, the region has witnessed significant events, the most notable of which was the assassination of Yahya Sinwar, the de facto leader of Hamas. This event, heavily relied upon by Israel, came at a time when the military focus had already shifted to the Lebanese front. This shift has kept the war atmosphere ablaze, making it difficult for the international community to put more pressure on Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Israel will likely manoeuvre by appearing to offer concessions in humanitarian aid and relief efforts, while in reality escalating its pressure on Hamas and seeking to take advantage of the uncertainty within the movement following Sinwar’s death. This situation may force Hamas to urgently craft a new political strategy for the coming phase, especially as its upcoming political battle promises to be one of its most complex challenges.

On the Lebanese front, Hizbollah managed to deliver strikes inside Israel in recent days, the most prominent of which was the drone attack targeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence. Although the attack did not cause significant damage, its symbolism was considerable. Netanyahu quickly seized the opportunity to shift the narrative in his favour, moving from a position of blame in the eyes of some allies to portraying himself as a victim. This allowed him to launch a new campaign of mobilization. Through this effort, Netanyahu aims to gain a green light for a series of operations that could go beyond military and security targets to also include political objectives in Lebanon and Iran, with potential extensions into Syria and Iraq.

At the same time, Israel has intensified its attacks on Hizbollah across various regions of Lebanon, targeting individuals and locations, particularly in Beirut’s southern suburbs. It is clear that Israel aims to dismantle the urban infrastructure of this area while also contributing to ongoing demographic displacement efforts. The broader goal appears to be turning the southern suburbs into an uninhabitable zone, displacing its residents. Ultimately, Israel seeks to reshape Lebanon’s security landscape by creating a deep buffer zone in the south, ensuring a different form of international presence that would replace the current UNIFIL forces, and stripping Hezbollah of its social strongholds in the future.

As Israel works to contain the surrounding fronts, from Gaza to the West Bank, it continues to escalate its strikes against Lebanon and maintains Syria under constant attack to disrupt the presence of Iran and Hezbollah and cut off potential logistical supplies. These actions indicate that Israel is paving the way to target Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

At the same time, Yemen and Iraq remain potential sources of threat. The United States’ robust engagement in targeting the Houthis with specialized operations, particularly using B-2 bombers, suggests that Iraq might be the front activated to distract Israel and create a security crisis within its borders. This aligns with recent operations from Lebanon that aim to create internal security turmoil in Israel, seeking to disrupt daily life. These efforts are expected to escalate through multiple operations using diverse methods, as has already been observed in recent weeks.

The intensification of attacks on Lebanon, the isolation of Syria, and the significant US military buildup, including the deployment of the “THAAD” missile defence systems to Israel, all fall under the broader preparations for what could come after an Israeli strike on Iran. This further suggests that the groundwork has been laid for a significant and targeted attack on the IRGC.

Sensing this looming threat, Iran’s foreign minister has embarked on a wide-reaching diplomatic campaign across the region, though it appears that none of its objectives have been met. The campaign’s primary goal was to prevent military action against Iran while highlighting the dangers of entering an open confrontation with Iran and the security risks it would pose across the region.

The region’s entry into a phase of direct targeting of Iran opens the door to new repercussions. Large swaths of geography could face waves of violence and attacks, particularly given the possibility that various groups and cells may act independently. This raises the level of security threats across much of the region, including areas that are not currently involved in the active conflict zones.

Dr Amer Al Sabaileh, a professor in Jordan University, is a columnist for the Jordan Times

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Israeli Media: We Are Waging a ‘War of Brains’ With Hezbollah

Israeli media revealed new details about the circumstances of the attack that targeted a military building in the Binyamina area south of Haifa. Israeli military analysts and experts said the incident casts doubt on the ability to intercept Hezbollah drones, and that the army is waging a war of brains with Hezbollah.

Military affairs correspondent Itai Blumenthal of Channel 11 said that the two drones that targeted the building in the base arrived via the northern maritime zone, where one of them was intercepted near the city of Nahariya, while the other disappeared from the field of view of Israeli fighters and helicopters just before hitting the building.

Blumenthal confirmed that the drone did not fire missiles, noting that this type of drone is known to the Israeli army and is manufactured in Iran and is available to Hezbollah, which raises further questions about the army’s ability to effectively detect these drones in the current war.

In the same context Nir Dvori, military analyst for Channel 12 said that this incident caused great disappointment, especially since the recent period witnessed some progress in the army’s ability to intercept drones. He added this incident completely turned the picture upside down, and revealed the gaps in the Israeli defense system.

A war of brains

Dvori explained this war of brains is witnessing a continuous development of capabilities on both sides. He added the Israeli army is working to improve its interception capabilities, while Hezbollah continues to develop the low-flying and high-speed techniques of its drones, which makes it more difficult to detect and shoot them down.

For his part Eitan Ben Eliyahu, former commander of the Israeli Air Force, confirmed that there is a war of minds taking place in real time between Hezbollah drone operators and soldiers operating Israeli detection and interception systems.

He described this battle as similar to a computer game, with each side trying to outdo the other in real time.

Yossi Yehoshua, a military affairs analyst for Channel 24 and Yedioth Ahronoth, pointed out that last deadly incident added to a series of injuries sustained by Israeli soldiers in the past two weeks since the start of the ground operations in Lebanon.

He said hundreds of soldiers were injured as a result of the use of anti-tank missiles, mortar shells, and drones by Hezbollah.

A surprise attack on the Golani Brigade training camp, located about 80 kilometers deep in southern Lebanon, Sunday, resulted in the killing of four soldiers and the wounding of 67, including eight in critical condition. The Israeli Army Radio described this attack as the deadliest incident against the army since the start of the current war.

Israeli media reported at the time that the drone fired a missile at the training camp, before crashing into the dining hall inside the camp, where soldiers were eating according to Al Jazeera.

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Hamas Derails ‘Generals’ Plan’ in North Gaza

Military expert Dr. Nidal Abu Zeid has confirmed that despite separating the northern Gaza Strip from Gaza City, the Israeli army has not succeeded in implementing the so-called “generals’ plan” so far.

He added that what is happening on the ground can only be classified as “tactical success but strategic failure in light of the heavy losses suffered by the Israeli army in northern Gaza.

Abu Zeid added to Jordan24 that the resistance is still operating in pockets close to the separation line established by the occupation, while it seems that the Netzarim axis model is being repeated in northern Gaza, which puts the occupation in a fragile position and vulnerable to the strikes of the resistance, which has exchanged geography for losses, meaning that it has given land to the occupation but inflicts losses in wide areas of deployment.

Failure with Hezbollah

Regarding what is happening in southern Lebanon, Abu Zeid said the equation of proportionality and gradualism is still prevailing in military with Haifa has become opposite equation to the southern suburb and Tel Aviv to Beirut in targetting and bombing.

He added that this is while the occupation forces have yet failed after 13 days of ground fighting to achieve any significant progress, and everything the Israeli army is doing falls within the framework of reconnaissance operations by force in an attempt to determine the weak points of Hezbollah, which is defending in an unconventional manner on the front edge of the battle zone.

Iran Stop!

Abu Zeid pointed out that events are accelerating, as indicators of the Israeli response to the Iranian response have begun to increase and its features have begun to become clear, which will change the equation of the conflict in light of an American desire not to expand the circle of conflict as much as it is a desire to clip Iran’s nails in the region.

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Maariv: Cabinet Must “Think” Before Israel Falls in Regional Mud

A year after the Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip and the war’s spread to Lebanon, Israeli politicians must now be involved in a real soul-searching process and study the course of this war on all fronts so may may see whether Israel succeeds in changing the strategic reality in the region or is begining the process of drowning in the mud on all fronts.

According to the Maariv newspaper, Israel is not built for  long wars and/or wars of attrition. The Israeli economy relies on human capital and therefore long wars could lead to the collapse of the economy.

To this day, the newspaper says, “three army divisions are conducting maneuvers in the Strip. But so far no combat goal has been achieved in Gaza.

“The Southern Command has not presented an exit plan, the Israeli army has not yet achieved most of the war’s goals: It has not released the 101 remaining hostages, it has not eliminated Yahya Sinwar, and has not been able to dissolve Hamas. It seems that day-after-day we will drown in the Gaza mud,” it said.

The Israeli army is relying on evacuating border villages. In general, the army has taken control of most of the line north of the border fence, but plans for the future are unclear.

For its part, Hezbollah has announced that it intends to operate in a guerrilla style to: Take advantage of the fact that Israel is not interested in a war of attrition.

In the West Bank, the newspaper says, the army is operating in Nablus, Jenin and Tulkarm. It is trying, in cooperation with the Shin Bet, to maintain a level of attack and operations in a way that does not turn the West Bank into another strong front.

In Iran, the Israeli government has not decided what it wants to do. Israel is obligated to attack forcefully after the Iranian attack two weeks ago, but the Iranian issue is complicated.

This is also due to the international community led by the United States, and countries in the Middle East warning of the repercussions of any Israeli response on the economy and oil and gas prices, the expected damage from Iran to the assets of the United States or moderate countries, and its impact on the elections in the USA.

All of these are part of the considerations that the Israeli government must make in order to evaluate what is happening on all fronts, because the future has become unanswerable.

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