‘They Don’t Know Iran’s Military Lexicon’: First Six Days of The Aggression

By Abdul Bari Atwan


They truly don’t know Iran. By this, I mean the Israelis and the US, and even some Arab leaders, none of whom dared to condemn the aggression. But the aggression entered its sixth day without the regime falling, and/or the new interim leadership rushing to the nearest negotiating table to surrender. The following factors need to be considered.

The battlefields:

First: The downing of an advanced American fighter jet, the F-15, by Iranian missiles in the west of Iran, a firstever development. This suggests the Iranian military leadership may have developed new missiles capable of achieving this feat, or they acquired them from their Chinese and Russian allies, or both, particularly the Russian S-400 and S-500 missile systems.

Second: The entry of Hezbollah’s ballistic missiles into the arena, striking deep inside Israel, specifically Tel Aviv and Haifa, for the first time after 15 months of restraint and the rebuilding of its military arsenal, and/or what was destroyed during the Israeli aggression. This means that no area in the Zionist entity will be safe.

Third: The fiery speech delivered by Sheikh Naim Qassem, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, containing strong unprecedented tone statements most notably: “We will not surrender and we will defend our land, no matter the sacrifices and despite the disparity in capabilities. We will not surrender.”

Fourth: The introduction of the fastest “infiltrating” drone into the Iranian Air Force for the first time. Named “Hadid 110,” it has a speed of 517 km/h and, according to Western military experts, is considered more efficient than its sister drone, “Shahed,” which performed well deep inside Israel. Its production costs only $35,000, while shooting it down costs $4 million.

Fifth: Every day of resistance by the Iranian army and people costs the occupying state approximately $1 billion. As for America, the costs of the war has already nearly spiralled to $160 billion in the first six days. These preliminary estimates are likely to rise, especially after the bombing of aircraft carriers and the destruction of warships, the increasing number of dead and wounded, the largest military buildup since the Iraq War, and the rise in energy prices.

Sixth: The fulfillment of the promise to close the Strait of Hormuz, which means delivering two fatal blows. The first is to the Western economy because oil and gas prices would likely reach record-breaking figures, and the second, for the Arab states who host the US military bases. Closing the Strait means preventing their oil and gas exports from reaching global markets, and the losses will increase while oil and gas revenues decrease depending on the war’s duration and developments.

The Iranians wanted from the outset a regional war of attrition with no end in sight in direct opposite to the new American warefare military doctrine, which aims for short, swift, and clean wars (without American casualties). The Iranians resolved to bomb all those cooperating with the aggression in the region. This new Iranian theory was best and most clearly expressed by Sheikh Naim Qassem when he called on the Israeli army to prepare for many days of fighting with all available means.

Defeat, surrender, and raising the white flag, individually or collectively, have no place in the Iranian military and political lexicon. In the first six days, the Iranian army launched 500 hypersonic missiles with multiple cluster warheads and more than 2,000 drones, resulting in the displacement of more than 7 million settlers to shelters and tunnels, and the destruction of large parts of Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Neither the 47-year-long starvation siege, nor three Israeli-American aggressions within a few years, nor the incitement of popular protests and the planting of spies among the protesters, nor the deployment of aircraft carriers and warships, nor inflation and the collapse of the national currency, succeeded in defeating the mighty and unwavering Iranian will, and consequently, in toppling or changing the regime.

Our proof is they baffled the Americans in negotiations that lasted more than two years in Vienna and in several other Arab and European capitals, and they never conceded. They rejected all American conditions, starting with halting enrichment and handing over 460 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, and even refusing to allow the inclusion of the Iranian missile industry or severing ties with resistance factions on the negotiating table.

Yes, arrogance, conceit, and the unfortunate complicity of some Arabs blinded them to the true nature of Iran, and they will pay a very heavy price, the most prominent feature of which will be the destruction of all Israeli gas infrastructure. In the Mediterranean, water and electricity stations, and the lack of distinction between settler and soldier, many assumptions have changed after the massacre of the children’s school in southern Iran… and time will tell.

This opinion was written in Arabic by the chief editor of Alrai Al Youm Abdul Bari Atwan and translated for crossfirearabia.com

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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The Chinese Fortune Cookie and The “Thucydides Trap”! A  View From Amman

By Saleem Ayoub Quna

Nearly 2000 years ago, there lived a prosperous Empire in ‘Athens’ which dominated the whole region of ancient Greece, along the hundreds of islands in the Aegean Sea. It was situated approximately 200 kilometers away from another military strong city, an empire called ‘Sparta’.

The advisors of the Emperor of Athens started warning their leadership of the growing power of this relatively distant neighbor, which could pose an imminent threat to its supremacy, and even to the existence of their empire in Athens as well.

In one of the ancient Greek ‘think-tanks’ in Athens also, lived a general and philosopher, who was monitoring the evolution of relations between the two city states. His name was ‘Thucydides’. He foresaw disaster and advised his fellow Athenians to resist the temptation to go after the Spartans, in order to quell the possibility that their power might expand and grow bigger in the region, and threaten and challenge the actual supremacy of Athens.

He begged them not to fall to such an illusionary trap. Sparta seemingly was minding its own business and was not fully aware of Athens’ fears and phobia of the unknown.

‘Thucydides’ kept warning his own people about such eventuality, but to no avail. The war finally broke out and it was called the “Peloponnesian war” that lasted for nearly three decades. Its endgame was a humiliating defeat for Athens, and a decisive victory for Sparta.

In the first decade of this century, a certain Graham Allison, a professor of political science at Harvard School for International Studies, was studying and analyzing this pattern of hostile relations between nations, built on suspicion and mistrust.

Out of 16 wars in the world, big and small, he found out, 12 wars erupted between nations, precisely because of, not similar, but identical circumstances, where a certain nation would fear the rising power and influence of another nation, and decides to go to war to eliminate this imaginary threat, so the former would keep its clout and domination.

While studying and tracking back cases of war from modern times such as WWI and WWII and other older conflicts, and when he reached the “Peloponnesian War, 431-404 BC” in Greece, he came up with a simple conclusion that causes such wars between nations, which is the fear of a nation of another nation’s power and ill-intentions! And he brilliantly dubs it the “Thucydides Trap” thus emulating the first experienced and documented war of this kind in ancient Greece, nearly 2000 years ago!

Now we come back to our present day and astonishingly hear Chinese President Xi Jinping warning his powerful visitor, US President Trump, and himself not to submit to the “Thucydides Trap” which many nations in the past did!

What is also amazing in this regard, is first, that the Chinese leader alluded to that ancient lesson which happened in Greece that lies thousands of miles away from China, and second, is how the smart and knowledgeable Xi Jinping’s speech writers, were as they inserted Graham Allison’s most famous political coinage in connection with today’s issues of war and peace!

In conclusion, I would like to list two questions and one footnote:

  • Does not the name “Thucydides” phonetically rhyme with the word “suicide”, especially if you could listen to its pronunciation in Greek!
  • Does not the “War of choice” launched against Iran on the pretext that it is posing a threat to Israel, squarely fall under the category of “Thucydides Trap” wars?
  • When Sparta won the war against Athens, it was significantly due to Persian support against Athens, bearing in mind that the Persians were the forefathers of present-day Iranians!

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Oslo: Strangling The Dove

By Dr Khairi Janbek

When we do a recap of the Oslo Agreements, they were a series of accords between Israel and the PLO signed in 1993. It was a process meant to lead to a permanent settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict within five year, including decisions on borders, refugees, security, Jerusalem and settlements.

But right from the start, voices were divided over the process, while for others, the whole idea had a built-in mechanism for failure from the start. The Palestinians started seeing that the Oslo Agreements were neither ending the establishment of Israeli settlements nor the end to occupation, while for the Israelis it didn’t seem to end their security concerns.

Indeed, it is pointless to think which comes first, the chicken or the egg, because two different fears and logistics persisted from the start.  But also, it is important to think about the circumstances which brought about the idea of launching the process, and which did put the PLO in a tough position for being perceived as supporting the wrong side which lost; Iraq.

The room for manoeuvre for the late Yasser Arafat was very tight as he stood to lose the legitimacy of the PLO.

What one is trying to say is that, right from the start, outside official circles, many on the Palestinian side were against Oslo probably as many as was the case on the Israeli side.

The gradual erosion of Oslo mainly through the continued Israeli actions kept feeding extremism on both sides.  Nevertheless, the concept was not revoked by any Israeli government because of its effect on Arab public opinion, pressure which is likely to block any peace initiative. Moreover, the international atmosphere was not conducive for such an initiative.

Having said that, one cannot claim that the international atmosphere is currently more indifferent to the abrogation of the Oslo, rather Israel seems to have more leeway in undertaking unilateral actions with more impunity.

Of course, it is not international law that can be counted on in this respect but rather, at least for the time being Donald Trump’s disapproval of the idea of annexing the West Bank by Israel. This is despite the fact that all the Israeli actions of dividing the West Bank from north to south first and currently from west to east, goes unnoticed. But the important thing has been till now, and don’t say the magic word, end of Oslo.

However, the recent development is that Israeli political parties, the partners in Netanyahu’s government are all pushing openly, for the abrogation of the Oslo agreements and cancelling out all the Israeli obligations towards it.

One can only say such an open declaration is a matter of principle by the Israeli government, because the changes on the ground are there for all to see. One supposes all parties are playing for time to see the end of the Palestinian national aspirations.

The columnist is a Jordanian writer based in Paris, France

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