Analyses Archives - Page 4 of 20

A Gaza War Reader

CrossFireArabia
January 21, 2025

By Dr. Tariq Sami Khoury

Despite the Gaza truce announcement, the question everyone is asking: Did this war end in victory or defeat?

Did the Zionist entity achieve its strategic goals, or did the Palestinian resistance factions impose a new equation on the ground? The mass destruction and great human losses open the way for a deeper analysis of the situation from multiple angles.

Zionist entity…Goals successes or victory illusions?

Israel launched its aggression on Gaza with unprecedented brutality, resulting in the near-total destruction of the Strip’s infrastructure, and the deaths of more than 250,000 people between those killed and wounded with the displacement of hundreds of thousands of residents.

Also the Israeli aggression extended to southern Lebanon and Syria, whilst targeting Yemen and Iran in clear attempts to expand the scope of the confrontation.

But did the Zionist entity achieve its goals?

1) Eliminating the resistance: Despite all attempts at genocide and continuous bombing, the Israeli army was unable to end the resistance or dismantle its infrastructure. The resistance proved its ability to continue to confront, and to carry out qualitative military operations till the last minute.

2) Recovering Its prisoners: Israel did not succeed to recover all its prisoners. In the end it was forced to enter into negotiations with the resistance under their own terms, which showed Israel was unable to impose its will by military force alone.

3) No deterrence: Instead of imposing a new equation to deter the resistance, Israel faced continuous missile strikes that reached deep into its territories and imposed a new and unprecedented reality on the Israeli internal front and unbearable political and security pressure on the Zionist leadership.

Legendary Palestinian resistance…

Despite the Israel ferocity and the intense destruction, the Palestinian resistance emerged strong and cohesive. The battle it fought was not only for defense, but to establish a new equation in the conflict, as it was able to:

1) Survive despite the bombardment: Israel was unable to break the resistance will or push its fighters to surrender and remained able to respond and maneuver till the last moment, which shows the failure of the Zionist plan to crush it.

2) Imposing negotiating equations: The resistance was able to impose itself as a key party in any future solution, and succeeded in confirming that the prisoners are not just a pressure card, but a negotiating element that changes the equation.

3) Maintaining morale: Despite Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe, the Palestinian people came out to celebrate the truce, in scenes that reflect their steadfastness and ability to overcome hardships. That is a psychological defeat for the Zionist entity.

Regional and international dimension… Exhaustion or victory?

Israel expanded the scope of its aggression to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and even Iran to attempt to weaken any future threats. But this did not lead to decisive results. Rather it opened up several fronts without achieving any strategic gains.

1) Northern front (Lebanon and Syria): Despite its continuous bombing, Israel was not able to stop the force of the axis of resistance, but faced more threats leading to the exhaustion of its forces.

2) Yemeni front: The air strikes on the country failed to stop Yemen from participating in the conflict equation by targeting the ships in the Red Sea going to the Israeli Port of Eilat, and which added a new strategic dimension.

3) Iranian Front: The Zionist strikes did not deter Iran or stop its support for the axis of resistance, but strengthened its position whilst prompting it to escalate its support for the Palestinian resistance.

Truce.. Rest bite and an opportunity?

With the ceasefire announcement, it can be said the resistance emerged victorious through its ability to withstand and maintain its position to influence the future. In contrast, while the Zionist entity may have achieved some of its field goals, it failed to draw a decisive victory and end of the resistance.

Conclusion.. Victory and defeat

The battle was not equal in terms of military strength, but victory is not only measured by the ability to destroy; it is by steadfastness and ability to continue. Israel did not achieve a decisive victory, but fought a long war of attrition, while the Palestinian resistance emerged more solid and able to impose a new reality in the regional equation.

In the final analysis, the fact remains that liberating the land and restoring rights can only be achieved through continuous resistance, and that every Zionist attempt to eliminate the Palestinian people will be met with a will that does not know surrender. Thus, Palestine remains the compass of the free.

The author is a Jordanian writer and contributed this piece in Arabic for the JO24 website.

Analyses

Al-Falahi: Continual Rockets Confirms Israel’s Military Failure

CrossFireArabia
January 12, 2025

In his military analysis of developments in Gaza Strip, strategic expert Colonel Hatem Al-Falahi, confirms the continual rocket fire from the Gaza Strip reflects the total failure of the Israeli military strategy, despite its unlimited international support.

He was commenting on the sirens in the Kerem Abu Salem area and Sderot and its surroundings, following the launch of Palestinian resistance rockets from the southern Gaza Strip.

Al-Falahi explained these rockets continue within the context of the ongoing Doha negotiations.

The military expert pointed out the continued firing of rockets after more than 15 months of war confirms that Hamas still possesses great military capabilities. He explained this sends a clear message that the resistance forces are preparing themselves for a long-time battle.

With regard to the military operations in the northern Gaza Strip, Al-Falahi stressed on Al Jazeera the continuation of the resistance there, despite the Israeli operation for the last 100 days, proves Israel’s failure to achieve its military goals.

He added the war, despite the great capabilities available to the Israeli occupation army and American and Western support, is unable to break the will of the Palestinian resistance.

A hotbed of depletion

Al-Falahi explained that the northern areas, especially Jabalia and Beit Hanoun, have turned into a “great hotbed of depletion” for the Israeli army.

He pointed to the great developments in the resistance factions’ strategies, as they began to benefit from the unexploded missiles and bombs of the Israeli army whilst employing them in their confrontation operations.

In his assessment of the general military situation, the military expert warned the goals that the Israeli army was unable to achieve in the past period will not be realized as the war extends further.

He especially pointed to the resistance success in retaining the Israeli prisoners, despite the huge capabilities and intelligence gathering available to the occupation army.

Al-Falahi stressed that the confrontations in Gaza have become “highly qualitative and bloody” due to the development of the resistance’s methods, pointing to the ability of the Palestinian factions to adapt to the various circumstances of battle, especially in the areas of the northern Gaza Strip according to Jo.24

Analyses

Can Joseph Aoun Get Lebanon Out of its Rut?

Dr Khairi Janbek
January 10, 2025

By Dr Khairi Janbek

We have grown accustomed to Lebanon being in the headlines as a result of blood and destruction, but no longer. Whether due to the weakening of Iran, determination of the international community and/or both, all this appears to be changing.

Lebanon has now officially elected a new president, ending a long period of political crisis that has long left the country without a head of state since the term of former president Michel Aoun expired in late October 2022. After protracted negotiations and intense political maneuvering, not to mention Arab and international pressure, general Aoun, with a tough military reputation who has lead the army since 2017, has become the latest leader of the country.

MP votes for US Congressman as president of Lebanon

In a surprising twist during Lebanon's presidential vote, an MP cast a ballot for US Senator Bernie Sanders, though it was swiftly voided. 99 out of 128 MPs backed Joseph Aoun who was elected as Lebanon's new president, ending… pic.twitter.com/x9ncaxKUOc
— Middle East Monitor (@MiddleEastMnt) January 10, 2025

General Aoun takes office amidst a period of significant economic and social challenges for Lebanon, as the country is grappling with an acute and ongoing financial crisis, soaring rates of unemployment, and the collapse of its currency, in addition to the refugee crisis and deteriorating infrastructure that has left Lebanon hanging by a thread.

In fact to top it all, the powerful sectarian political groups which hindered the election of a president for the past 26 months and more will not likely disappear with the election of general Aoun despite the seemingly robust character of the new leader.

The new 14th Lebanese president in his first address to parliament, vowed to work with all political factions to implement reforms and tackle the pressing economic issues that has long log-jammed the country. His speech was one that had determination and a sense of purpose and appeal with a rallying-cry for all of the fractious political groups of Lebanon.

Having said that, and despite the election in the Lebanese Parliament, the country’s future still remains uncertain with challenges. The new president will need to navigate carefully the deeply entrenched political system which often leads to gridlock and an inability to implement meaningful change.

Additionally, the country’s economy remains in freefall, with millions of Lebanese struggling to afford basic goods and services. Therefore, it is clear the road ahead will be a challenging one to say the least. Logically for many, the focus has already turned to whether the new president can live up to the promise of healing the nation and lead it towards a more stable system.

From the Arab and international perspectives, the messages of support from both seem to be encouraging, but this support will need to be translated into monetary terms for re-building the country. It is said there is the promise of $10 billion earmarked for this effort but frozen on the condition that Lebanon elects a president based.

Now this hurdle has been overcome and passed. At the end of the day as well, General Aoun is seen as the consensus candidate for the Arab countries as well as the international community. In this sense, the release of the re-building funds may look optimistic but there is still the snag of the question of Hezbollah and Israel’s future belligerent intentions towards the country, issues that are still to be ironed out.

Lebanese citizens celebrated the election of #JosephAoun as #Lebanon's president after a more than two-year presidential vacuum. pic.twitter.com/OXJ8Wgxiv3
— DD News (@DDNewslive) January 10, 2025

The new Lebanese administration needs guarantees from Hezbollah in as much as it needs guarantees from the new Lebanese administration, and the Arab and international community eagerly awaits the results of this dimension because, putting it bluntly, no one wishes to see their investments blown up in another war nor their money burnt in smoke.

All that one can say under the circumstances, is that General Aoun, and he is the fourth president to be chosen from the military establishment, can negotiate with Hezbollah to surrender their heavy weapons to the Lebanese Army while keeping their light weapons; at least for the time being, and stay away from the Litani River as demanded by Israel.

But this will need considerable political dexterity and acumen.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris

Analyses

Netanyahu: Ideologue, Pragmatist or a Proxy?

Dr Khairi Janbek
December 4, 2024

Dr Khairi Janbek

PARIS – When talking about the Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, we must not miss the point that in effect he is a politician, thus, he is both an ideologue and a pragmatist. He is an ideologue when he feels he can go all the way with brinkmanship and get away with it, and he is a pragmatist, when realizes that he should stop and talk. However, by and large that usually depends on the position of the USA primarily, and on the regional situation in the second degree.

He was a pragmatist, when he originally gave his implicit support to Hamas as a guardian of peace in Gaza, and the guarantor of border security with Israel, and he was an ideologue when he demanded that the PNA accepts that Israel is a Jewish state, and accept moreover, that any form of a Palestinian state ought to be demilitarized and just a guardian of the border with Israel.

https://twitter.com/LegitTargets/status/1847287962024747060

He was an ideologue when avenging the 7 October events and a pragmatist in letting the hostage crisis drag on. He chose to head a government in which he can present himself as the only one whom the world can talk to when compared to his extremist colleagues, through his masque of pragmatism, rather than go into a government with partners whom will make him look as the only ideologue among pragmatists.

Again, this Netanyahu dualism, be that the ideologue who has the freedom to do as he sees fit, or the pragmatist who gets to know his boundaries one cannot say is clear, at least for the moment. For all intents and purposes, the red apple of the so-called Abrahamic Accord, Saudi Arabia, remains illusive, as the Saudis have indicted in no uncertain terms, that any prospects of normalization are conditional on at least, reviving the two-state solution. But at the same time, Netanyahu still has working relationships with the UAE and Bahrain in the Gulf as well as Qatar.

As for the older cold peace partners, Jordan and Egypt, Netanyahu is content that at least the situation is stable as it could be.

Now, will Netanyahu be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat when it comes to Trump, or does he really feel that he can take Trump for granted? The current thought in the Middle East fluctuates between those two guesses. But in reality with a paradigm shift, perhaps we can see things clearer. For a start, we are currently living in the age of separation of economics and business from the world of politics, also the separation of interests from principled positions. This age is not created by either Netanyahu or Trump but it certainly suits their relationship fine.

One thing for certain, Netanyahu can rely on Trump’s support as an intransigent ideologue, for Israel is undoubtedly the advanced military post of the USA, but also as a pragmatist, he has to understand to what extent he can be a tool of US foreign interests especially that Trump is very much fond of the concept of proxies and does not like infringements on his business deals.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian historian based in Paris and the above opinion is written exclusively for crossfirearabia.com.

Analyses

Can Lebanon’s Ceasefire Lead to a Gaza Let up?

CrossFireArabia
November 28, 2024

The cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon is raising questions about whether a similar truce could bring an end to the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza.

Statements from around the world have given rise to cautious hope, such as the US saying it aims to use the Lebanon truce “as a catalyst for a potential Gaza cease-fire,” but prospects of something actually materializing remain uncertain.

Palestinian academic Sami Al-Arian believes Israel does not want a cease-fire in Gaza, at least “for the time being.”

“Knowing that (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu will be facing prison once the war ends in Gaza, it doesn’t seem like he’s interested in either getting the hostages out or ending this genocidal war,” he told Anadolu.

Israel, he said, has been trying to “annihilate the (Palestinian) resistance” but failed to do so, or “free their captives with military means.”

“They have been trying for 14 months and they have failed miserably,” he said, adding that going for a cease-fire in such conditions would not fit in with Israel’s goals.

Israeli expert Ori Goldberg also finds chances of a truce in Gaza difficult, pointing to Netanyahu’s own statement rejecting that specific possibility.

He said the Israeli premier, now a man wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity, is unlikely to agree to cease-fire terms that risk his political standing.

“Various countries have already stated a renewed commitment to a hostage deal, but a cease-fire in Gaza will have to include a detailed schedule for Israeli withdrawal,” Goldberg said.

“I have trouble seeing Netanyahu agreeing to that in Gaza … If he agrees to it in Gaza, he will seem weaker.”

Another factor, he added, is how much “the Israeli public supports the presence of the Israeli military in Gaza, much more than it does in Lebanon.”

Why did Israel agree to Lebanon cease-fire?

Experts say Israel’s main reason for agreeing to the Lebanon truce was because it failed to achieve its military goals against Hezbollah.

“They wanted to push Hezbollah to the north of the Litani River but that failed. They wanted to disarm Hezbollah, and that failed,” said Al-Arian, adding that Israel opted for a cessation of hostilities because its forces were suffering.

“They wanted to impinge on Lebanese sovereignty and be able to fly over the airspace of Lebanon and control the border. That failed.”

Other goals of returning illegal Israeli settlers to Lebanese lands or creating a buffer zone also failed, he added.

Al-Arian emphasized that the current agreement is “not a cease-fire” but a truce for 60 days, reiterating that Israel’s only reason for agreeing was that “they were not able to bring Hezbollah to its knees and surrender.”

Ali Rizk, a Lebanese security analyst, presented a slightly different view, saying that both Israel and Hezbollah needed the truce.

“Hezbollah needed a cease-fire because it had suffered some heavy blows,” he told Anadolu.

Hezbollah’s supporters, particularly among the Shia community, were targeted by Israel, with many of them being displaced, and there was “immense human suffering with the onset of the winter season,” he added.

For Israel, Rizk believes they “initially had the momentum in their favor, especially after the assassination of Hezbollah’s former leader Syed Hassan Nasrallah, but gradually that momentum appeared to fade away.”

“They encountered some heavy resistance in the south. A lot of their soldiers lost their lives in the south. Hezbollah missile and rocket attacks continued,” he said.

In his own statement, while Netanyahu “didn’t say it, but he was implying that the Israeli military was suffering from some kind of a fatigue,” Rizk pointed out.

The US was another factor, he said, as it never wanted – since October 2023 – the “situation to erupt, to explode in Lebanon.”

“They (US) welcomed any steps and they took the opportunity when they found that these circumstances were appropriate and they sent Amos Hochstein,” said Rizk, referring to Biden’s special envoy.

“There were several factors – Hezbollah’s interests, Israeli interests and US interests – and I think they all converge in the same direction.”

Israeli analyst Goldberg also believes Netanyahu agreed to a truce because his forces were not accomplishing their goals in Lebanon.

“He wants to keep the Israeli military in Gaza. There’s no victory there, so he wanted something that would be a feather in his cap … He agreed to it in Lebanon because these are two sovereign states,” he said.

Will Lebanon cease-fire hold and what comes next?

On the durability of the Lebanon truce, Rizk struck an optimistic tone.

“If you look at what happened in 2006, Resolution 1701, that ended that conflict and it spoke about a cessation of hostilities,” he said, adding that the situation remained calm from 2006 till 2023.

“It’s quite possible that … we could have a long-term calm again … because it’s clear that neither the Israelis nor the Americans have an interest in the situation exploding.”

With Trump coming to power soon, having made clear his aversion to any war or military adventures, it would be fair to say “there is a good chance that this agreement is going to hold,” he added.

Goldberg, however, was more cautious in his outlook.

“I think the cease-fire will hold, even though there are provisions … that suggest that Israel can open fire and use violence whenever it likes. We will see how this happens,” he said.

“I think Netanyahu has an interest in the cease-fire holding because that gives him carte blanche in Gaza.”

Rizk, meanwhile, also believes that a formula could be reached to end the Gaza genocide and go ahead with a hostage deal.

“In July, according to reports, (US President-elect Donald) Trump told Netanyahu that he wants the situation done, and he wants the war to come to an end,” he said.

“If you look at Trump’s appointments and his mandate, it seems that he doesn’t want anything to do with a new conflict in the Middle East. He’s even given indications that he wants to deal with Iran, so that leads me to conclude that his foreign policy priorities are going to be elsewhere, which requires calm in this part of the world.”