Israel, Trump and the Latest Bombing of Gaza

Israel relaunched its bloody war on Gaza, with vehemence and callousness and with the blessing of the Donald Trump administration in the White House.

Its back to the “good old bloody days” of murder, mayhem and slaughter of mostly innocent women and children who have no part in the current war waged between Israel and Hamas.

Unwilling to quench its thirst for blood, Israel relaunched its war on the 364-kilometer Gaza Strip by killing over 322 people in the first five hours of early morning Tuesday while everyone was fast asleep.

Up until then it has been a “slight” rest bite reached through a ceasefire on 19 January between Hamas and Israel through US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators bringing an end to the daily killing of Gazans that today stands at 48,500 people.

Everyone is asking if the ceasefire is wrecked and stands in ruin on day 525, the total length of the carnage started on the people of Gaza soon after 7 October 2023, when about 1200 Israelis were killed.

Whatever the politics of the recent war, it has become amply clear the Israel slaughter has not been aimed at Hamas fighters, which it couldn’t eradicate even after 15 months of war on the Islamic organization but resulted in the mass killing of the women and children of Gaza.

The latest spate of dropping bombs on the people of Gaza, facilitated by the United States which stands as complicit in this genocide, sees no end light, but is seen as just the beginning although Gaza and its infrastructure is already annihilated with its people displaced and living in the wild and under the skies.

The world stands and waits to see, if the genocide will continue from this day onwards, or is it just a pressure tool to get Hamas to release the 59 or so Israeli prisoners it currently holds. If the latter is the case however, Hamas has long shown, it has a long breath and will not release the prisoners that originally were around 250 and now stands at the current number through exchange deals with the fact that the Israeli army has killed around 23 of them in failed rescue operations.

The latest bombings, carried from the air starting from the south of the strip on the southern city of Rafah, Nuseirat, Al Shati and Maghazi camps, and Deir Al Balah in the center of the enclave, including Gaza city and the destroyed northern areas, speaks of dark days are expected ahead.

Hamas are yet to respond militarily. There are couple of issues to consider here. Hamas officials have been talking to the Trump administration officials in the last couple of weeks about different paths.

Will that continue, particularly after this bloody debacle. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who long wanted to destroy Hamas, and thus the war to continue, said this time around, the latest military operation in Gaza is being carried out “in consultation” with Trump and his associates.

If this is the case, the latest Israeli deadly spate, may not last long, particularly because Trump is on record of stating that he doesn’t want the war to continue but wants to end it which means he will not continue to supply Israel with weapons indefinitely and there will come a time when he will stop.

But that might be a while before that and he may continue to tolerate the mass bombing of Gaza. However, since he is talking to different parties through his envoy Steve Witkoff, he will likely “manage” what Israel continues to militarily do in the Gaza Strip and be involved in a “stop-go” war process.

The problem with Trump is that also he is looking for different objectives in Gaza. He first wanted to displace its 2.2 million people to neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt. Now, he appears to be retracting from this position because of Arab and world pressure.  

Will he backdown and order Israel for a quick “fix” and or let the war on Gaza continue by which time Hamas, will once again, start fighting Israel again, both in the Strip and through endlessly targeting its major cities, towns, settlements for the past 15 months.

Despite the fact that Trump said that “all hell will break lose” on Gaza if the war doesn’t stop and Hamas is not brought to heed, the US president is choosing to forget the Houthis, despite mass bombing them in the last couple of days. They promised they will continue to strike Israel if it continues to stand as an obstacle to humanitarian and food delivery to Israel and will not be deterred by US and British bombing of Yemen. And to prove their point, a ballistic missile was fired on the same day, Tuesday, after the Israeli bombing of the Strip.

Hence what Trump wants and what he will get on the ground are two different things. His wish to end the Israel-Hamas war and establish a “new Gaza” will not be achieved through parochial thinking.

The Palestinians are on the ground, they have no wish to go anywhere while Hamas continues to have a formidable fighting capability and have no qualms to going back to war. The fact they are talking to the mediating parties, including the US doesn’t mean they are ready to put their guns down and leave the grounds of Gaza.

Netanyahu must realize that unless he wants the whole Middle East region to be engaged in a perpetual long-term war. The question is Trump and the United States military establishment prepared for that?

The above-analysis is written by Dr Marwan Asmar, chief editor of the crossfirearabia.com website.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Rehabilitating Iran?

By Dr Khairi Janbek

All eyes now are on the new game in the Middle East: The US-Iran negotiations. One would say the aim here is far more advanced than the Iranian nuclear programme when the agreement was torn up by US President Donald Trump himself who was more concerned with details which would eliminate all threats against Israel, and would that in all liklihood, transform the whole region.

It seems that in this early intense stage, the ambiance is for reaching an amicable agreement through the recognition that no matter of the outcome, there will be nothing divisive. Trump will continue creating crisis just for the sake of showing that he can control those crises, and act in the manner of the old Arabic adage, for neither the wolf to die nor the sheep to parish. While for the Iranians, they have everything to gain from a positive outcome to those negotiations.

Of course, the Iranian nuclear programme is an important component of these negotiations, and most often than not, at times Iran and at times its enemies, exaggerate the potential of the country to making nuclear weapons for political purposes.

Yet the fact remains that despite the possibility of Iran being still far from creating weapon-grade enrichment programme, if carried on unchecked, it is inevitable that at one point in the future it will have nuclear weapons. Consequently the fact remains, the onus is on Iran to prove credibly that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, and accept periodically, the checks of the international nuclear inspectors.

The other dimension is the relationship of Iran with its proxies in the region, which falls under the category of threats to Israel. Well, and under the circumstances, Iran has to decide the reasons for its continued alliances with its proxies – whether such alliances served their purpose, or have become a burden than an asset – or if it can maintain these alliances with definte no threat commitment Israel but with political clout in Arab world affairs, which incidentally may not seem such a bad idea for Trump.

After all eliminating the threat against Israel is the primary concern, while at the same time his rich Arab allies buy their protection from him, a protection which Iran cannot dare to test.

But what is in it for Iran to reach an accord with the United States? One would say plenty. For a start it’s reintegration back into the region. After all it kept claiming it’s nuclear programme, is in reality, a peaceful programme and Tehran never had the intention of enriching weapons grade uranium.

Well, and with an accord it can now easily prove, and then can start dealing with the issue of not being a threat to Israel by either dissociating itself from these proxies which have become costly to its image and/or work in their transformation to political, unarmed forces and parts of the political structures wherever they exist in the Arab region.

Essentially if the sanctions against Iran are lifted and its assets are no longer frozen, Iran will be able to assume a very strong position in the Middle East region based on its economic strength and its enormous trade potential. In fact, Trump knows that any military action he takes against the Iranian nuclear installations, and any possible response will not have a decisive result. Therefore, the most likely decisive result will be, a new Iran, big in the region as well as moreover, that will owe him a favour.

In the meantime , we are still at the very early stage to even try to guess, but we can safely assume, that no matter how those negotiations proceed, nothing tangible is likely to happen before the visit of President Trump to the Gulf region in May.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian analyst based in Paris, France

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Iran-US Talks in Muscat: Winners and Losers

EDITOR’S NOTE: This editorial, written by Abdul Bari Atwan, chief editor of the Arabic Al Rai Al Youm website, on Saturday, 12 April, relates to the first talks of the Tehran-Washington negotiations that started in Muscat, Oman relating to the Iran nuclear file.

Iran succeeded in scoring a major goal against the United States in the clash of wills that began today, Saturday, in the Omani capital, Muscat, by insisting that the negotiations be “indirect,” contrary to what its American adversary wants: Namely “direct” negotiations as announced by US President Donald Trump at the White House in his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, who was surprised by this shocking announcement.

The US delegation, led by Trump’s Advisor Steve Witkoff, is participating in these talks from a weak and defeated position, especially after the failure of the US plan to impose tariffs on more than 200 countries worldwide. America has become friendless, and even turned its friends into enemies, especially in Europe and Southeast Asia like South Korea and Japan.

Strategies of negotiations

Iran, represented in the negotiations by veteran Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the man who led the negotiations for the first nuclear agreement with the six major powers in 2015 and possesses extensive experience in the art and strategies of negotiation, did not submit to the “threats and intimidation” adopted by President Trump.

They imposed their conditions in full on their American opponents and insisted on limiting the negotiations to the nuclear issue, not addressing other issues such as missile and drone systems, and severing ties with the arms of the resistance in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. And they got what they wanted.

The one who called for a return to a diplomatic solution to the Iranian-American crisis and backed down from his threats of a devastating military strike was President Trump. This happened when he realized the threats of military strikes, coupled with the dispatch of three American aircraft carriers and squadrons of giant B-52 bombers, backfired.

These did not intimidate the Iranians, but prompted a response from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who declared a state of emergency in the Iranian military, placed giant missile platforms, advanced submarines, and ground and naval forces on high alert, and threatened to destroy all of the 10 military bases surrounding his country and housing 50,000 soldiers, close the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent Gulf oil exports to the entire world.

The Iranians do not trust President Trump, who tore up the nuclear agreement in 2018, and is well aware he has become an Israeli puppet. He also realizes that America, defeated in Ukraine, did not simply march to Moscow waving white flags, ready to sell Ukraine and its people to the Russians and surrender to all of its conditions, including the annexation of a fifth of Ukrainian territory to Russia, without consulting its European allies, whom it has become embroiled in this war.

When President Trump demands that the Muscat negotiations reach a quick agreement within two months, this is due to his bitter experience in the Vienna negotiations, which lasted a year-and-a-half and ended in failure due to Iran’s cunning use of the “yes, but” theory, without offering any concessions.

Globally hated…

We do not believe that this theory will be abandoned in the Muscat negotiations, especially since America, which is now globally hated and has lost all of its allies in the West and the East, has become weak, and is on the brink of bankruptcy due to the huge deficit in its annual general budget ($1.4 trillion) and its public debt that has reached more than $42 trillion.

What will encourage Iran to harden its position in these negotiations is China’s strong and defiant stance in the trade war against the United States. Its president, Xi Jinping, declared he will respond in kind to America and its president, and will fight this war to the end, no matter how costly the results.

He has decided to raise customs duties on American goods by a historic rate of more than 125 percent, and has given the green light to his allies in the BRICS group to declare war on the dollar and the global SWIFT financial system, through which America controls the global economy and financial movement.

Trump, wounded by the failure of his gamble to ignite a trade war, and the internal and global revolt against it, with the beginning of the decline in the value of the dollar and the escalation of the recession in the American economy as its first fruits, was forced to stop this war less than three days after its announcement under the cover of a three-month freeze on the application of customs duties.

Crushing military strike

Hence, his threats, i.e. Trump’s necessity of quickly to reach a nuclear agreement didn’t have any effect despite the threat of a crushing military strike. Iran’s respond to Trump forced him to make a major, unprecedented concessions to save face.

Iran, which has suffered significant losses in Lebanon, with the weakening of its powerful military arm in that country (Hezbollah), and in Syria with the fall of the President Assad’s regime, undertook rapid reviews internally and regionally, abandoning many of its policies pursued in recent years, after realizing that the knife is approaching its neck, and that the American-Israeli conspiracy does not only seek to destroy it and remove its military claws and fangs, but also to change the Islamic regime there.

The results of these reviews reflected in the transition from a phase of patience and long-suffering to a phase of confrontation in its military and political aspects, and the strengthening of its allied military arms, starting with the striking Yemen whose arm there is waging heroic wars not only against aircraft carriers and American warships in the Red and Arabian Seas, but also by intensifying ballistic missiles and drone bombardment of the occupied Palestinian interior in Jaffa, Haifa, and Eilat, accelerating the recovery process for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and finding other ways to deliver military supplies to it.

After the historic Syrian corridor was closed with the fall of the Assad regime, America became a farce in the first months of Trump’s rule. It’s no surprise that Iran and its allied proxies are among the biggest beneficiaries and gloaters. He who laughs last laughs loudest… and the days will tell!

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