A Middle East Powder Keg

By Dr Khairi Janbek

Like Dorian Grey in Oscar Wild’s novel, we hated the face of Arab political realism in the 20th century when we saw it, and hated it more in the 21st century when we stopped seeing it.

Without much ado, the current ongoing war, or perhaps more accurately wars, in the Middle East, started by opportunists for opportunistic goals that converged.  Hamas with its 7th October attacks knowing only too well that Israel has the most right-wing and racist government in its history, and must have known that the its retaliation would be most severe.

It stands the reason to think the more severe the better, because this is likely to involve what is called as the axis of resistance in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and as a bonus Iran as well. But closer to home, Israel by making Gaza uninhabitable to the people is expected to cause an exodus towards Egypt thus bringing it into the conflict, and the inevitable thought of Israel moving into the West Bank, and the likely push out of the Palestinians towards Jordan will bring the country into the conflict as well.

For Israel, with its most extremist right wing and racist government, the attacks couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. The situation presented them with the opportunity of attempting to put what were merely theoretical ideas in their minds, into practical policies.  Of course the root of what became a policy, is the rejection of an independent Palestinian state and the death of the two-state solution, by starting with breaking the Hamas grip in Gaza and transforming the area into a buffer zone with possible rebuilding of colonies/settlements on the area.

This is while the Gazans can be completely dependent on the good will of Israel for their survival, however, if the Arabs want to rebuild Gaza then by all means, but let them this time protect their investments by keeping actively the peace, and if Egypt can be persuaded to voluntarily taken in some Gazan refugees all the better!

Of course all eyes are also on the West Bank. Here Israel’s aim, one would say, is to turn the area into a “bantustan” totally dependent on Israel,  with the trimmings of municipal power to the PNA to manage internal affairs while real control of the economic, political domains remain in Israel’s hands.  

The Palestinians here would also be dependent on the Israeli economy, and relations between the West Bank and Jordan would be only possible with Israeli consent.  If of course, Jordan would accept taking displaced Palestinians from the West Bank voluntarily, all the better as well.

Having said all that, where do we stand now after so much recent death and destruction? A total war? Whatever does that actually mean when Jordan has already its own war against drugs, Egypt and its problems with Ethiopia, Somalia, Syria between the hammer of Israel and the anvil of Iran, Iraq a soup for Americans, Iranian partisans and a non-descript government, Yemen teetering on the brink of losing the existential battle, while Iran obsessed with its nuclear programme. One would hazard a guess that total war means, the killing of Israeli civilians by Hezbollah.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris, France

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Israeli Planes Bombard Civilian Areas in Lebanon

The Israeli army’s escalated military attacks against civilians and residential areas in Lebanon, particularly in the South and Bekaa regions, along with the issuance of evacuation orders, raising alarm in the region. Urgent international intervention is required to prevent the massacres and other atrocities being carried out by Israel in the Gaza Strip for more than 11 months from occurring in Lebanon as well.

Israel’s army carried out over 330 raids in over 117 Lebanese towns and cities today, 23 September 2024, according to the Euro-Med Monitor field team. These raids were directed towards civilian residential areas in southern Lebanon and various areas of the Bekaa region. As a result, 274 people—including 21 children—have been killed and over 1,024 individuals—including women, children, and paramedics—have been injured as of the early afternoon hours. As of the time of writing, Israeli airstrikes are still in progress, with the frequency of shelling attacks on residential areas rising.

In both the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the Israeli army deliberately denies civilians enough time to escape the areas being bombed, offering them no real protection from the dangers arising from military operations. Instead, Israel randomly and directly targets civilian buildings, including the buildings of surrounding hospitals and schools.

For instance, the inhabitants of Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, which spans an area of about 4,429 square kilometres, were given just two hours to evacuate when the Israeli army issued evacuation orders. However, it would take many citizens at least three hours to leave areas within the valley. Moreover, the Israeli army neglected to designate safe zones to which people could escape—just as it has been doing in the Gaza Strip—showing that Israel either ignores the legal obligation to direct people to safe zones, or targets areas it has designated as safe. Since Israel began bombing Lebanon, dangerous conditions as well as significant challenges to the evacuation process have been documented.

The Israeli army is required by international humanitarian law to take all reasonable measures prior to any military attack in order to prevent, or at the very least reduce, harm to civilians and civilian property. This entails, among other things, providing the civilian populace with a sufficient amount of warning prior to the commencement of the attack; allowing them enough time to flee; and, unless circumstances dictate otherwise, enabling them to take protective action and relocate to safe areas.

International humanitarian law states that civilians who are unable or unwilling to leave an area are still protected as civilians, and that Israel is still obligated to protect them to the extent that they need to be shielded from harm simply because of their presence in the area.

In addition to towns in the Bekaa Valley, the Israeli army struck over 117 towns in the south of Lebanon, including some that saw serial and repeated raids, like Aitaroun, Ansar, Kfar Reman, Haris, Sarafand, and other villages in the districts of Tyre, Sidon, and Nabatieh. The Israeli army also announced that it had begun a third wave of raids and aggression against Lebanon.

Israel also used drones to light fires in southern Lebanon’s forests at the same time as it conducted warplane strikes, suggesting that Israel has been burning agricultural lands with white phosphorus—a weapon that is prohibited by international law due to the severity of burns it can cause. These burns often reach the bones of victims, and the severe fires caused by white phosphorus can destroy property, buildings, crops, and soil. It is likely that the Israeli military has been using white phosphorus in its attacks on Lebanon since its first attack on the country following the start of its genocidal war in the Gaza Strip on 8 October 2023.

Today’s military build-up in Lebanon follows an Israeli army raid on Friday 20 September 2024 into Beirut’s southern suburbs. The raid caused the collapse of two residential buildings, killing over 37 people—including children—and leaving more bodies trapped under the rubble, with the search for victims still ongoing.

Israeli forces launched a random and illegal attack on Lebanon earlier, on 17 September 2024, using radio and pager explosions. The attacks resulted in at least 32 fatalities, including two children as well as medical staff members, and 3,250 injuries, including to a diplomat. There were 200 cases of critical injuries, and 500 serious injuries to the eyes and limbs specifically.

All of the aforementioned Israeli attacks are grave breaches of the Fourth Geneva Convention, the Additional Protocol, and international humanitarian law in general. These treaties require warring parties to always distinguish between civilians and combatants and offer special protection to vulnerable populations like journalists and the elderly, in addition to providing special protection to women and children. The Fourth Geneva Convention on the Protection of Civilians, its regulations, the Fourth Hague Convention, and Article 48 of the First Additional Protocol all attest to this; customary rules of international humanitarian law also support this.

International humanitarian law also prohibits indiscriminate attacks that do not distinguish between military and civilian targets, including attacks that do not target specific military objectives or that use combat means or methods incapable of being directed at a specific military objective.

The international community must act swiftly to stop Israel from repeating its genocide in the Gaza Strip in Lebanon, by safeguarding Lebanese civilians and stopping the situation from deteriorating further. Additionally, effective sanctions must be placed on Israel, such as a complete ban on arms exports, and Israel must be cut off from all forms of political, intelligence, and financial support. Finally, Israel must be held responsible for its ongoing crimes against peoples that occur on their own territory.

EuroMed Human Rights Monitor

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Deir Al Balah Massacre: Mom, Her 4 Kids Killed

A Palestinian mother and her four children were killed in an Israeli airstrike that struck their home in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza, at dawn on Monday.

Local sources reported that the airstrike targeted the family home of Abu Samak, killing the mother and four of her children, who were peacefully sleeping at the time.

The children were aged between four and eight years old.

The woman was identified as Israa Abu Samak, 29. The slain children were Abdullah Mohammed Abu Samak, aged eight; Ahmed, aged seven; Zeina, aged five; and Mazen, aged four according to the Quds News Network.

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Israel is Losing in Gaza And Against Hezbollah – Military Expert

Military expert Dr. Nidal Abu Zeid said the success of the resistance in attacking the occupation’s military hardware and drones proves the falseness of the Israeli story of eliminating the Rafah Brigade.

He noted that after the withdrawal of the 98th Paratroopers Division from Gaza a few days ago, the only remaining Israeli forces were the 162nd Armored Division to fight in Rafah, the Alexandroni Brigade and the 8th Armored Brigade in the Netzarim axis; he added there were five divisions fighting at the beginning of the military operations.

Abu Zeid added to Jordan24 that the resistance is working at a calm pace to achieve three tactics, which are operations with political messages, as is happening in Rafah.

He indicated that low-intensity operations outline the features of a long phase of attrition which is what the Palestinian resistance group want to exhaust the remaining Israeli forces in Gaza, which have been fighting for 352 days.

Lebanon

Regarding what is happening in southern Lebanon, Abu Zeid said the Israeli forces have tried to maintain the initiative and want to accumulate achievements and not give Hezbollah the opportunity to reorganize its ranks in order to deprive it of the ability to launch operations towards the north of the occupied territories.

However he added, it seems that Hezbollah has begun to regain the ability to seize the initiative through the missile barrages it launched at dawn on Sunday and reached deep into northern Israel, reaching the Ramat David base and airport with dozens of Fadi-1 and Fadi-2 missiles. This shows that Hezbollah is rebuilding its capabilities, but it is still early to judge the full recovery of the decision-making chain.

Abu Zeid stressed that the operations with Hezbollah have moved from the scope of “geographical targeting” to those of targeting the party’s organizational structure, pointing out calculing profit and loss in this form of unconventional operations is not measured by the method of air strikes, but by calculating the points in which the resistance still excels, whether in Gaza or in southern Lebanon.

He added Israel did not achieve its goal by its operations against Hezbollah to return the residents of the northern settlements nor did it achieve its goals in Gaza by recovering the prisoners or create a new security reality.

The military expert indicated that the occupation is winning tactically but losing strategically.

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Israel Bombs Kill 990 Medics in Gaza Slaughter

More than 990 Palestinian medics were killed in Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip since 7 October, 2023, Palestinian Health Minister Majid Abu Ramadan said Saturday.

Abu Ramadan said more than 300 health care workers were arrested, and hospitals destroyed and/or rendered inoperable in Israeli strikes.

He adde the incessant Israeli bombardment forced 130 ambulances out of service.

Five Health Ministry personnel were killed early Saturday in an attack on the agency’s storage facilities in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

The Minister described the bombing of health care personnel and facilities as part of “a broader pattern of violence by the occupation.”

He urged the international community and health organizations “to exert pressure on the occupation authorities to immediately stop the aggression, open border crossings for medical supplies, and allow critically ill patients and wounded individuals to seek treatment,” according to the Anadolu Turkish news agency.

Israel has continued a brutal offensive on Gaza since a Hamas attack last October despite a UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire.

Nearly 41,400 victims, mostly women and children, have since been killed and more than 95,700 injured, according to local health authorities

The Israeli onslaught has displaced almost the entire population of the territory amid an ongoing blockade that has led to severe shortages of food, clean water and medicine.

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