‘Bibi, You Are Not Going to Win this War’

Look Bibi, you are not going to win the war so stop acting as if you are going on! The sooner Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu realizes that the better it would be for everyone.

 But will he? Netanyahu is on a rollercoaster. Unable to finish off Gaza and Hamas, he turns his army to Lebanon and Hezbollah but he is soon stuck in the ‘mud’ despite the mass bombing, the destruction and the murder of innocent civilians.

The Israeli army has tried to cross the border at least seven times but has failed. It tried to enter a few hundred yards into southern Lebanon but soon pushed back every time by Hezbollah fighters. The Israeli army is finding out this party is no pushover despite the early pagers and the walkie talkie deathly-traps disasters.

Despite its air superiority and massive bombings that killed much of its top cadres including the dramatic killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasarallah, Hezbollah fighters soon picked up and regained their strength and armor.

On the ground, the Israeli soldiers were not going to cross into Lebanon and that was a promise kept up by the skirmishes, heavy fighting, engagement and combat. Israeli soldiers were being stopped at the door so to speak, they were being killed and injured as reported by Hezbollah and admitted to by the Israeli army.

In addition to that, Hezbollah has been launching missiles and rockets on northern and central Israel all week, reaching all the way to Haifa and Tel Aviv, Acca, Tiberias, Safad with settlements, military basis, Mossad headquarters, the Galilee and all way to the occupied West Bank.

What this meant is that sirens were going off all the time and people were going in and out of underground shelters because of the extent of the missiles that were mostly coming from southern Lebanon but occasionally from Yemen and from Islamic resistance groups in Iraq and even Syria.

Psychology Strain

So the psychology has been a strain on its people, military and even politicians for on average between 100 and 150 missiles were being launched on the Israeli interior and on a daily basis. The majority of these are falling on these areas all the time and wreaking havoc and nervousness.  Their deflection by the Israeli Iron Dome has  failed badly in this war with Israelis feeling the heat as 23 percent of the population polled are already thinking of leaving the country.

Hezbollah is launching the different missiles despite the constant bombing being made by Israeli warplanes on the southern district of Beirut which is considered as the main Hezbollah stronghold. The Israelis are bombing intensely the Lebanese district, almost on the same level that was being practiced on the Gaza Strip, especially in the early months of the period following 7 October.

However, Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas and continuing its battering of the north of Israel – as can be seen – and will be maintained for a long time. Observers are saying Hezbollah seeks to send a clear message to Israel that ‘if you bomb our south district we will continue to strike places like Tel Aviv and Haifa’ which are the major economic and technological hubs and conurbations in Israel.

It is not an east ride for Israel after it killed Nasrallah which was seen as a brief moment of success and jubilation not least most of all from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who wanted to celebrate this act on the first anniversary of 7 October. But this wasn’t to be for soon, Israel was hit by 200 ballistic missiles launched all the way from Iran and increasing the psychology of fear among the Jewish population.

Israel has already tried to play down that affair by saying these missiles were not effective but they later admitted at least two of their military bases were hit. On the point of conjecture, everyone is expecting Israel to strike Iran and expand the regional war. But the Americans, whose generals and politicians are presently in Israel, they maybe trying to persuade the Israeli government not to because of the deadly consequences and slippery-slope scenarios.

Meanwhile, and feeling the pain again, Israel is going back to pound poor old Gaza in a most intense and obscene way and manner while seeking once again to drive the population of northern Gaza further down south and create a military zone and fill it with Jewish settlements through its so-called ‘Generals’ Plan’. 

This was the idea put forward at the start of this war on the enclave last year. It failed then – despite talk of driving the Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula – and no doubt it will fail now.

This is because after a whole year of destruction Hamas and its fighters continue to be a force to be reckoned with. They have not been destroyed despite the mass bombs dropped on Gaza but they are regrouping throughout the enclave and dealing painful blows to the Israeli army.

CrossFireArabia

CrossFireArabia

Dr. Marwan Asmar holds a PhD from Leeds University and is a freelance writer specializing on the Middle East. He has worked as a journalist since the early 1990s in Jordan and the Gulf countries, and been widely published, including at Albawaba, Gulf News, Al Ghad, World Press Review and others.

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Trump: Tunes, Ceasefire and Hormuz

Saleem Ayoub Quna

The latest ceasefire by Trump reminded me of an aspiring young violinist, who every time she started playing her own written piece, the tunes of her instrument would go havoc!

Last move, the declaration of a ceasefire with no deadline, by President Donald Trump on the Hormuz virtual chessboard with Iran, did not lack the usual element of surprise. Still, it was a relief for some, annoying for others and revealing for a third group!

While at it in the White House, the Pakistani host intermediaries in the other side of the hemisphere, were stood up for the arrival of the negotiation teams, who seemingly were hindered by other conflicting schedules, while pilots of the jet fighters, in the air bases and on board destroyers, and the launchers of missiles, drones and anti–missile batteries, were all getting itchy over the delay of orders from their commanders, which left TV anchors and other commentators, boringly speculating and redundant!

After the two rounds of exchanging intensive missile and rocket attacks, between Iran and the US-Israeli axis, in less than a year, using the open skies over the Middle East from the Mediterranean to the Gulf area, as a last resort to make each party’s views clearer to the other, President Trump, the man who happens to hold most of the important cards in his hands, seems today, to have come to the conclusion, that neither his message, nor his tools, or even his sheer luck have helped making his message loud and clear enough to his opponents and to the rest of world!

Luck in this context can be associated with the totality of internal, regional and world unanticipated reactions to this complicated conflict, in terms of rising oil and gas prices for the average consumer, whether in Europe, North America or in Eastern Asia. It is highly suspected that these instruments in the hands of Trump, started producing tunes that were not written or desired by Trump himself, and if they did, it was just a kind of dissonance!

It is also very probable that Trump’s tactics as a deal maker, continuously changing his tone and vocabulary, made his listeners lose track of his true original storyline, if there was one! But more seriously, weighing and counting the odds that have befell Trump in the aftermath of the breakout of the war, some of which were

of his own making, and other developments that came out as natural by-products of the original move!

Following is a rundown of those unexpected unpleasant by-products, or side-effects, some of which might turn into chronicle headaches*, of the whole initiative which Trump had closely coordinated with his persistent ally, Netanyahu, the first in June 2025, when the two of them orchestrated the “Midnight Hammer” surprise operation against sensitive Iranian targets, and the second round “Epic Fury” on Feb28 this year, while negotiators were in session:

1. Rise of oil and gas price in world markets

2. Drop of share prices in stock markets

3. Fracture with NATO*

4. Decline in Republican Party ratings ahead of the midterms congressional elections in November

5. Resurgence of Trump’s friendship with Epstein’s scandals.

6. Firing key US generals in the midst of crisis, culminated by ousting Navy Secretary, John Phelan.

7. Emulating Jesus Christ in a replica image!

8. Personal row with Pope Leo who stands as the most respectful living figure in the Western civilization.*

9. Lebanon and Hezbollah’s connection.*

10. The Strait of Hormuz new strategic entanglement*

None of the above problems or symptoms of problems, except for point 5 and 9, existed before Trump made up his mind to go into war against Iran last year. Even back in 2018 during his first term, Trump shocked the world by tearing up the Iran-nuclear deal approved by Obama’s Administration after being endorsed by the rest of the Western powers. No one expected that Trump would go this far in his second term, except the Prime Minister of Israel!

All things considered, the whole world, minus Israel, was shocked by the magnitude of the bombings to finish Iran’s potentials to own its own nuclear knowhow and capabilities. All of which leaves me wondering if this latest ambiguous ceasefire, and the way it was presented and its timing, will prove to be a real turning point in the ongoing strife in the Middle East, or just another boring maneuvering tactic by Trump!

As for the fate of young aspiring violinist, it was said that after she had discovered that her violin was not authentic but a replica, she decided to become a soprano!

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An Unholy War!

By Robert Stephen Ford

Presidents and popes have disputed wars in the past. Pope Paul VI criticized the American war in Vietnam, saying that America was losing its moral standing. Pope John Paul II called the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 unjust and illegal. However, the clash between US President Donald Trump and Pope Leo XIV, who are the two most influential Americans in the world, about the war against Iran is without precedent.

The rift that preceded the war

The relations between the Vatican and the Trump administration were difficult even before the Iran war. Before the appointment of Pope Leo, Pope Francis in 2025 criticized Donald Trump’s restrictions against immigration and the treatment of refugees and immigrants in American detention centers. In January 2026, three top Catholic Church leaders in the United States issued a report stating that American foreign policy was immoral. They pointed to reduced assistance to world health programs that have harmed tens of millions of people worldwide.

The American surprise attack on Iran on February 28 sharpened the dispute between the Vatican and the White House. The Trump administration portrays the war as a kind of holy crusade blessed by God. In his April 7 social media message threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, Trump exclaimed, “Glory to God!” while also saying that God ensured the success of the mission to rescue an American pilot whose plane was shot down over Iran. On March 26, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a press conference that military strikes against Iran enjoyed protection from God, and at a religious service in the Pentagon on April 1, he quoted from the Old Testament, asking God to “break the enemy’s teeth.”

The Pope responded on April 6 that Jesus called for peace and reconciliation, and he rejected politicians using God to justify war. His rebuke generated sharp counterattacks from Trump and some Republican Party leaders. Vice President JD Vance and Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson said the pope appeared not to understand the Catholic Church theory of just war. Several American bishops close to Pope Leo responded that it was ridiculous to suggest that the pope did not understand the theology and the theory of just war since Leo himself is from the branch of the Catholic Church founded by Augustine, the Christian thinker who, 1,600 years ago, first set down the principles of a just war. The surprise American attack in the middle of negotiations, the American failure to avoid striking civilian targets and the ambiguous American government goals of the Iran war did not meet the standards of a just war, they noted.

Politics dressed as theology

Trump and the Republicans are politicians, not theologians. They portray the war against Iran as holy because they understand that the war is unpopular in the United States and they need the support of Christian conservatives in their political base. Notably, most Catholics, who are about 20% of the American population, voted for Trump in 2024. Opinion polls since late March have shown that most Americans doubt the war is in America’s national interests. After Trump’s threat to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure and civilization on April 6-7, the pope called the threats “unacceptable” and would violate international law. He even urged American citizens to contact their representatives in Congress to demand that the war stop. It was unprecedented for a pope to urge Americans to mobilize this way, and it directly touched a big part of the Republican Party base. Trump responded five days later with his social media message alleging that the pope appears to accept that Iran can have nuclear weapons and does not understand foreign policy. No American president had attacked a pope so personally. With economic damage from the Iran war and opinion polls indicating Democratic Party victories in the November congressional elections, the White House and Republicans are especially sensitive to criticisms towards their war policy.

The pope enjoys a big advantage over Trump in opinion polls in the United States, and Trump over the past four days has retreated a little. He said on April 16 that while he respected the pope’s right to say what he thinks, Trump insisted that he would continue to say and do what he thinks is right. The pope, meanwhile, said on April 18 that he did not want to debate the president. The pope’s role in the end is not to descend to politics but rather to stay on a high level focused on how people should live according to the principles of Christianity. This round of arguments has been winding down, but the Trump administration’s use of Biblical scripture and symbols to justify controversial policies will trigger new fights with the Catholic Church in the months ahead, especially if the war escalates.

The writer is a former US Ambassador to Algeria and Syria and contributed this article to Anadolu

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