Iran: ‘Strategic Patience’ to ‘Sustained Confrontation’

By Najih Mohammad Ali

In a clear and direct language, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) affirmed that regional “peace and stability will not be achieved unless there is withdrawal from the occupied Lebanese territories.” This stance followed Hezbollah’s Secretary-General’s rejection of the Washington talks, emphasizing his refusal to separate the arenas and the “Dahieh for the North” equation.

This statement expresses a coherent strategic vision that considers regional stability inextricably linked to ending occupations and aggressions. It places the defense of Lebanon, Syria, and the region among Iran’s political and military priorities.

This shift to a strategy of “eternal war”—or continuous confrontation—and reflects a pragmatic and principled decision made by Tehran after decades of pressure and aggression. Iran did not abandon the idea of ​​a settlement in vain; rather, it realized that relying on partial agreements with Washington, which imposes unilateral conditions and disregards the rights of peoples, is no longer a viable option.

The cowardly assassination of Martyr Qassem Soleimani, followed by direct strikes targeting high-ranking Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, proved that relying solely on “strategic patience” is mistaken for weakness. Therefore, Iran has shifted to a doctrine of active deterrence based on the entire axis of resistance, making any aggression costly for its adversaries.

This transformation was not the result of the absolute dominance of a hardline faction, as Zionist-American narratives and their Arab proxies (and, of course, the Iranian opposition abroad) claim. Rather, it is a natural evolution of the Iranian elite that stood united in the face of external aggression.

After significant losses, the priority of maintaining national and revolutionary cohesion emerged. Defending revolutionary principles—exporting the spirit of resistance and confronting arrogance—has become an essential part of the regime’s identity that has become a source of strength to prevent internal collapse whilst uniting the people behind the leadership in the face of sanctions. Pragmatists and hardliners alike now agree that continued confrontation better protects national interests than concessions that could lead to disintegration.

The leaders of the Iranian regime believe—and I think they are right—that continuing the confrontation will yield greater strategic gains than any fragile peace agreement. History proves that America understands only the language of force and attrition. From Vietnam to Afghanistan, wars of attrition forced Washington to withdraw.

Today, the “Axis of Resistance” is cleverly applying this equation: Linking the arenas to prevent separate deals that would weaken Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen, and imposes a heavy price on its adversaries. Iranian diplomacy has been transformed into the diplomacy of the field, as General Soleimani envisioned, and is now a flexible tool that buys time and exposes the contradictions of the other side, while maintaining full military readiness.

The American-Israeli strikes have already altered Tehran’s calculations in favor of adopting an offensive-defensive posture. Instead of settling for limited responses, Iran is developing comprehensive deterrent capabilities through its natural allies, who represent the will of the region’s peoples in the face of occupation.

This is a calculated escalation, a precise strategic calculation based on resilience and strategic depth. Within the elite, a balance prevails between caution, fearing losses, and resolve, which sees resistance as the only path to dignity and independence.

Compared to the previous “strategic patience,” the strategy of sustained confrontation has proven effective in preserving battlefield gains and preventing the regional collapse of the resistance axis. It has succeeded in exhausting the enemy and strengthening internal unity, despite economic challenges primarily attributed to unjust sanctions, not Iranian policy.

The most serious risk facing this strategy lies in the possibility of miscalculation by adversaries and their attempts to impose a full-scale war, but Iran has repeatedly demonstrated an exceptional capacity for resilience and adaptation.

We are indeed facing a “simmering cold war,” where there is no false peace imposed by force, nor a total war that destroys everyone. This situation serves Iran and its axis because it maintains the strategic balance, prevents surrender, and opens the door to a comprehensive and just settlement based on withdrawal from occupied territories and respect for the sovereignty of states.

In conclusion, this “perpetual war” relies on the long-term vision of the Iranian character. It is not a whim, but an existential choice imposed by the ongoing aggression against Iran and the peoples of the region.

Iran is defending itself and the dignity of the nation, and affirms that true stability begins with ending aggression, occupation, and foreign interference. This path, despite its difficulties, reinforces Tehran’s position as an indispensable regional power and paves the way for a new balance of power that respects the rights of peoples. The region needs such firm stances to achieve an honorable peace, not surrender.

The author is a researcher in Iranian and regional affairs and this article is reproduced from the Arabic Al Rai Al Youm website and reprinted in crossfirearabia.com.

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Israel Soldiers Shoot, Kill Baby in Hebron

A 7-month-old Palestinian infant was killed Friday and his parents wounded when the Israeli army shot at the family’s car in the Tel Rumeida area in the southern occupied West Bank, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

It said the Israeli army killed Sam Abu Haikal and that his father, Fahd Abdul Aziz Abu Haikal, a lecturer at Bethlehem University, lived with his wife and son in Bethlehem.

The shooting took place while Abu Haikal was on his way to his mother’s house in the Tel Rumeida neighborhood in central Hebron.

Israeli soldiers fired live ammunition, wounding the father in his hand. His wife was also wounded by the same bullet, which pierced the jaw of their infant son. All three were taken to the hospital.

The occupied West Bank has witnessed escalating Israeli military raids, arrests and settlement expansion since the start of Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip in October 2023 according to Anadolu.

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Israeli Looters in Lebanon

❝The accounts describe the theft of motorcycles, televisions, paintings, sofas and rugs on a wide scale, which has become routine. Both senior and junior commanders on the ground are said to be aware of the phenomenon, but are not taking disciplinary action to curb it.

According to the testimonies, as IDF soldiers leave Lebanon, they load stolen items onto their vehicles openly, without attempting to conceal them. “It’s on a crazy scale,” one soldier said. “Anyone who takes something – televisions, cigarettes, tools, whatever – immediately puts it in their vehicle or leaves it off to the side, not inside the army base, but it’s not hidden. Everyone sees it and understands.” – The Palestine Project

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‘Israel Will Not be Able to Defeat Hezbollah’ – Military Expert

Israel will not succeed in achieving the goals it set in Lebanon and will not be able to defeat Hezbollah said military expert Retired Maj-Gen Mamoun Abu Nawar.

He pointed out Israel is still unable to cross the border into southern Lebanon due to the heavy losses and after seven failed attempts to do so by its soldiers.

He stressed Israel does not have the ability to defeat Hezbollah despite the losses and assassinations it carried out through its air strikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern district in the last two weeks.

Abu Nawar added to Jordan 24 the Israeli occupation army is trying to get out of the Gaza impasse and its inability to achieve the goals it announced there by opening the Lebanese front and is trying to cross the border and establish a foothold there to start extensive military operations later.

But he pointed out it is failing to do so after the heavy losses inflicted on its invading soldiers.

Abu Nawar explained opening a third front with Iran will not be easy and Israel does not have the ability to confront the strikes and ballistic and hypersonic missiles, which are considered among Iran’s most powerful weapons.

Abu Nawar pointed out that the air strike on Iran requires the approval of four countries for the aircraft to cross, namely Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria. He noted Jordan has already refused for its airspace to be used by both parties and the other countries will not allow the use of their airspace because they will be partners in the operation and this is not easy either.

Abu Nawar continued that there are also technical, technological and logistical reasons for Israel’s inability to strike Iran by air, including because the lack of aircrafts available to refuel after they were taken out of service; and in this case it needs the intervention of the USA to supply it with them or use its military bases in the Middle East, and this is not possible at the present time.

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Don’t Forget The West Bank Slaughter!

By Imran Khalid

Amid the ongoing violence and devastation in Gaza, much of the world has turned a blind eye to the equally volatile but less overt conflict simmering in the West Bank. While not as brutally visible as Gaza’s plight, the situation in the West Bank is equally dangerous, threatening to ignite unrest that could destabilize the Palestinian Authority and fuel ethnic cleansing.

Israel has steadily expanded settlements, demolished homes, and seized large swaths of land, targeting civilians in the process. Yet, global attention remains fixated on Gaza and Israel’s escalating war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is as if the world has forgotten that just a year ago, many feared the West Bank, not Gaza, would become the primary battleground between Israelis and Palestinians. Over the past two decades, the nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has diverged significantly between Gaza and the West Bank. After Israel’s 2005 unilateral disengagement from Gaza, the region was left without Jewish settlers, creating a different kind of friction compared to the West Bank. [1]


Settlements are expanding day by day

On March 22, Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced the largest West Bank land seizure since 1993, setting a new course for Israeli settlement policy [2]. The move by Smotrich to declare 800 hectares in the Jordan Valley as state land paves the way for further development of settlements in this area sharing some 50 kilometers with Jordan.

For the Palestinians, who distrust such moves, seeing them as serious threats to the creation of an independent Palestinian state — this feels like a knife in their back. It is the latest land grab that Palestinians see as a last step before creating an independent and contiguous state. Settlement expansion — which set a record last year, according to Israeli monitoring group Peace Now — has cast doubts over the feasibility of a two-state solution. The largest threat to the long term stability of the land is that, with each designation of land as state property, the probability of having peace shrinks. The ongoing expansion of settlements, land confiscation, and rising settler violence — often carried out with impunity — only compound the difficulties. In some cases, this is further exacerbated by the incident in which the Israeli army is providing either direct or tacit support.

The Palestinian Authority’s Ministry of Health has stated that 716 Palestinians have died in the West Bank from Israeli military and settler violence since Oct. 7, including 160 children. Today, more than 5,750 have been wounded and over 10,000 detained in siege [3]. Nearly all arrests take place without going through a proper legal process, with the detainees imprisoned under Israel’s “administrative arrest” system – a method that bypasses international standards and in many cases denies those held the right to see either an attorney or even forthright details of the charges against them.

The two-state solution is being destroyed by Israel

The Israeli government is being accused more and more of implementing an annexation plan in the West Bank. The ramifications of this should alarm all nations that have historically supported a two-state solution, as verbal assurances and well wishes do little to mitigate the reality that Israeli security forces now operate at will in Area A — sovereign Palestinian Authority territory under the Oslo Accords [4].

Adding to this escalating tension are the inflammatory statements from Israeli officials. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz over the weekend compared the military operations in Jenin and Tulkarm to those in Gaza, saying that we are at “war in every sense.” [5] His proposal of a similar evacuation process along the frontier where Palestinian civilians could be temporarily moved will only serve to add further fuel to the fire in an already volatile region.

Despite domestic political turmoil, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has artfully dodged blame as violence in Gaza and the West Bank rumbles on. He has practically dismissed calls for a two-state solution and openly defied the International Court of Justice. Netanyahu refuses to yield, a position that has crippled the fragile peacekeeping efforts in Gaza and aggravated fears of renewed violence in the West Bank. Netanyahu has now many excuses that could provide convenient cover for changes aimed at further entrenching Israeli control over the region.

The fate of the major part of the West Bank is crucial; without it, any prospective two-state solution will be dashed. Within Netanyahu’s ruling coalition are elements who seem intent on this very outcome, exerting considerable influence over the prime minister. In this context, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz’s inflammatory rhetoric about the West Bank is more than just careless language — it may be a deliberate signal of the government’s intentions. As Netanyahu’s administration edges closer to what appears to be a calculated annexation strategy, the international community should question whether this is not only a consequence of policy but its very purpose.

[1] https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-palestine-gaza-hamas-explained-israels-2005-gaza-disengagement-plan-and-full-siege-order-4466132

[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/22/israel-seizes-800-hectares-of-palestinian-land-in-occupied-west-bank

[3] https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/humanitarian-situation-update-204-west-bank

[4] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240326-israel-s-largest-land-seizure-since-oslo-accords-deals-fresh-blow-to-palestinian-statehood

[5] https://www.timesofisrael.com/katz-slams-borrell-for-saying-he-called-for-displacement-of-west-bank-palestinians/

This opinion is reprinted from the Anadolu news agency.

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