Is an Israel-Iran War Coming?

By Dr Khairi Janbek

In the late 1990s, the grandiose talk of a new order for the Middle East emerged which turned out to be nothing more than a euphemism for Disney Land Arab countries, poverty and conflict-stricken regional reality, with a mixture bordering on more than buffer zones.

Now we have a less ambitious notion and that is a new balance of power in the Middle East, another euphemism for Israel calling the shots and all its neighbors being called on to abide.

But how does this new notion translate in practical terms? Well basically, to all concerned and less concerned waking up every morning asking the question: Will Israel strike Iran or will it not? 

Of course, this is a horrific question if indeed Israel does hit Iran as it carries with it many important existential perils for the whole region and beyond.

One believes whatever is on Benjamin Netanyahu’s mind to achieve advantageous results must be carried out before the date of the US elections this November because no matter what he has been told by the US prospective candidates, at the end of the day, a sitting president doesn’t act like a president-elect.

Now what would a direct confrontation and open warfare between Israel and Iran entail? Well primarily, direct confrontation takes precedence over war by proxies, which means Israel will have to go directly into destroying the military capabilities of Iran in a hugely destructive war.

This would ultimately open the possibilities for its own destruction which means dragging the US and western powers into the conflict, no matter how reluctantly they maybe to defend it, and/or basically go into a slippery-slope open warfare reaching Syria and Iraq and Iran and whatever is on its plate regarding Gaza and Lebanon.

The current wisdom dictates a large scale war does not seem to be likely on the agenda, but that does not exclude a cycle of tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran.  Clearly Israel knows that for the economy of the west which is seriously preoccupied with prices and inflation, to target the Iranian oil facilities is a red line.

Moreover, to target the Iranian nuclear facilities would open the door for Tehran to retaliate against the Israeli nuclear facilities which will have dire consequences for the whole region and the world.

Therefore, if Israel is seriously thinking of dealing a blow to Iran, it will either resort to targeting personalities from the hierarchy of the country, and/or will be a just a face saving act with superfluous consequences.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris and the above opinion is that of the author and doesn’t reflect crossfirearabia.com.

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Israel’s ‘Victories’ Are Defeat Illusions – Military Expert

Palestinian military expert retired Major-General Wassef Erekat said the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance and its implementation of qualitative operations that inflicted human losses and equipment on the Israeli army, confused its military leadership which is still suffering from the war imposed on it.

He added Israel cannot make a decision regarding the war without the approval of the United States, which grants it full protection to carry out its operations.

Erekat added to Jordan24 the enemy’s starting a war on the northern front is but an escape from the defeat it suffered in Gaza, due to its failure to achieve any of the goals made by its politicians. He pointed out the committing massacres, mass killings, forced displacement and ethnic cleansing is a goal for the extremist Israeli government to empty Gaza of its population.

The military expert explained Israeli leaders were convinced that the war would end within two months, but they were surprised by the strength and steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance and its preparations for war, so the enemy has become unable to find a way out.

Erekat stressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cannot announce a plan for the day after the war due to his lack of ability to decide the battle. He noted the Israeli occupation is currently relying on air strikes to kill, in light of the soldiers’ inability on the ground.

He stressed the occupation is trying to escape from Gaza by expanding its northern front after it became clear to the lIsraeli eaders the army is unable to achieve any victory, so the decision was made to search for an imaginary victory to cover up their defeat in Gaza.

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Yossi Hadar: ‘Netanyahu Lost The War to Hamas’

Israeli political analyst Yossi Hadar, in the Jewish Maariv newspaper, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost the war to Hamas, and instead of signing a prisoner exchange deal with it, he is trying to drag Israel into a war of attrition that will keep him in power.

The analyst harshly criticized Netanyahu for trying to dismiss Defense Minister Yoav Galant, describing it as a political move to preserve his position, ignoring the military failures in the Hamas attack of 7 October, 2023.

The writer began his article by referring to the operation attributed to Israel of blowing up the wireless devices in Lebanon and Syria, which resulted in the death of 32 Lebanese and the wounding of hundreds, according to the latest statistics.

“If the attribution of this operation to Israel is correct, it reveals another aspect of Israel’s enormous military capabilities, but at the same time it could bring us closer to a real war with Hezbollah, while the war in Gaza continues, the Houthis attacks on Israel, and Iranian threats continue, with operations growing in the West Bank and inside Israel,” he added.

The analyst accused Netanyahu of deliberately prolonging the war for political reasons, ignoring the serious security implications for Israel, and described him as the most failed prime minister in Israel, and that he “is leading an approach of political baseness and exhaustion and implementing a Machiavellian plot aimed at tightening control over the country by pushing the public to despair.”

Hadar stressed that Netanyahu’s escalation in the north is “the way Netanyahu seeks to maintain his rule, not in order to do something beneficial for the citizens of Israel, but only for his personal and political interests, just so he can continue to exhaust us.”

Political Maneuver

The writer then went on to assert that Netanyahu’s attempt to dismiss Galant is part of a political maneuver aimed at strengthening his power, rather than addressing the military failures that were evident in the 7 October attack, which puts Israel in a weak position in the face of the growing threats.

“All this does not prevent Netanyahu from hatching a plot to overthrow the defense minister at this critical moment for the security of the state, and in the midst of a war that could expand,” he said.

He explained Netanyahu’s move as a bid to replace his defense minister because of his opposition to the Haredi conscription law that the Orthodox parties insist on, in exchange for appointing the head of the Right-wing Israel Party, Gideon Sa’ar, because the latter will pass this law, referring to Sa’ar’s volatility, who was previously quoted as saying, “If you want Netanyahu as prime minister, don’t vote for me.”

Hadar also denied Netanyahu’s followers’ marketing of the reason for Galant’s dismissal as a “weak leftist,” saying that Galant himself offered, just four days after the 7 October attack, to attack Hezbollah as a preemptive move, but Netanyahu refused, in a state of panic over the events.

The writer recalled that Netanyahu is the one who divided Israel by leading “an attempted coup against the judicial system that he created before 7 October,” and he is the one who brought upon Israel “the catastrophe of 7 October,” and now he is dragging another catastrophe by dragging Israel into a war of attrition.

He said, “Instead of waging a short and intense war, he chose a dangerous and failed war of attrition that goes against all strategic logic, and dragged Israel into the worst state it has been since its founding, because what matters is only the logic of political survival,” according to Jordan24.

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