Trump’s War Drums ‘Dampen’

EDITOR’S NOTE: This editorial is written by Abdul Bari Atwan, chief editor of the Arabic Al Rai Al Youm website, on 2 February 2026, on the eve of increasing US military presence sorrounding Iran.

The fact that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ali Khamenei appeared three times in open and public meetings, chatting to ordinary Iranians recently, sends a shocking message to US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It shows Khamenei still has the first and final word in Iran, and is not hiding in an underground bunker for fear of assassination; he has not relinquished his leadership and spiritual powers, as some Arab and Western media outlets have promoted in deliberate leaks part of the psychological warfare against Iran, coinciding with the US military buildup in the region.

In contrast top Israeli politicians and military officials are rushing to Washington fearing that President Trump will back down from his aggression threats and replace the military option for a peaceful, negotiated one and reaching an accord that does not include Israeli demands and conditions. Israeli Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir made a surprise visit to Washington recently and met with senior US military leaders, accompanied by his own top military commanders, including the Israeli Air Force Commander.

Frankly however Trump may have already lost this war, just as he lost face and credibility by failing to follow up on his threats and translate them into aggressive actions on Iranian soil as he has resorted to sending mediators, with the latest being his friend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to reopen negotiations with Iran after realizing his naval buildup and aircraft carrier deployments is not yielding results, nor are they intimidating the Iranian leadership into surrendering. Thus, he may be defeated either way, whether he goes to war or resorts to a political and diplomatic solution to the cri

The key to understanding this confusion and perhaps American retreat, and the postponement of military strikes, lies in the threatening message sent by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Trump during his meetings with the numerous Iranians on the anniversary of the late Ayatollah Khomeini’s death. The most prominent point was his assertion that “Iran does not initiate wars, but if it is subjected to aggression, it will confront it with all its might and inflict devastating blows on the enemy.” More importantly, he stated “this war will be a broad regional conflict, it will not be swift, decisive, or short-lived,” nor “clean”— meaning, free of casualties.

A “regional war” means all countries, movements, and military factions aligned with the “axis of resistance” will participate, starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and Ansar Allah in Yemen. American bases in the region, particularly on the Arabian side of the Gulf, will be legitimate targets, as will all the American soldiers stationed there and whose numbers exceed 70,000.

What terrifies Israel most is not only Trump’s failure to proceed with his aggression against Iran, but also the possibility of reaching an agreement that contradicts all three of Israel’s objectives:

First: Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, halting all Iranian uranium enrichment at high levels, and surrendering all its existing stockpile (480 kilograms) to a neutral country. Second: Halting the development and launch of Iranian missiles, and dismantling all long-range missiles, whether hypersonic or multiple-warhead, capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory, particularly Haifa and Tel Aviv, as demonstrated in the 12-day war last June.

Third: Completely ceasing all financial and missile support for resistance movements, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon and its Iraqi counterpart, factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces such as Harakat al-Nujaba, and Ansar Allah in Yemen.

A Reminder

Everyone should be reminded the return of 5,000 American soldiers in coffins to Washington, killed by the Iraqi resistance after the 2003 invasion, forced the then-President Barack Obama to acknowledge defeat and withdraw 160,000 American troops from Iraq in November 2011. This was made to minimize losses. Thus, it is no exaggeration to say that any aggression against Iran today would result in four times that number of American casualties, if not more, in the initial days of the attack. This is due to Iran’s resolve, advanced missiles and drones, and other secret weapons that might be the biggest surprises of this war, should it start.

Perhaps the decline in oil prices, the collapse of gold and silver prices, and the dollar’s shocking depreciation in global financial markets are among the most prominent indicators confirming what was stated above: The diminishing likelihood of war, Trump’s reluctant inclination towards diplomatic solutions and negotiations, and his initial admission of his failure to achieve a military victory to avoid losses and the protracted regional war threatened by the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Time will tell.

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For Israel The ‘Yellow Line’ is Occupation

By Ismail Al Sharif

Two months after the signing of the ceasefire, that remains merely ink on paper, the region is yet to witness a fundamental shift to the second phase: A transition from a strategy of destruction to a withdrawal mechanism, and from the logic of military operations to a framework of international administration, paving the way for a political process to ultimately lead to the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state.

However, the realities on the ground today proves this path is nothing more than a theoretical assumption quickly crumbling in the face of a complex reality.

Two months after the supposed ceasefire, a completely different truth emerges; Israel continues its ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip. Palestinian civilians are dying from the bitter cold, just as they previously perished from the bombardment, while unilateral decisions are being made whilst deepening the chasm of mistrust between the parties supposedly partnering in ending this humanitarian tragedy and implementing the Donald Trump plan, who claims to have ended a three-thousand-year-old war.

What was supposed to be a temporary withdrawal line for the Israeli army has, according to its generals, become a new de facto border called the “Yellow Line,” swallowing up more than half of the Gaza Strip.

Early this month, the army’s chief of staff Eyal Zamir addressed his troops, asserting Israel “now exercises effective control over vast areas of the Strip” and its military units “will maintain their positions on these defensive lines.” He explicitly declared “the Yellow Line represents a new border of an advanced line of defense to protect Israeli society, and serves as a framework for the ongoing military operational activity.”

From these comments it can be understood the ceasefire line is no longer a temporary, transitional measure, but has effectively become a forcibly-imposed border, a permanent defensive zone, and a legal framework that legitimizes a long-term Israeli military presence within territories that, until recently, were an integral part of the Palestinian territories.

These pronouncements are not merely political rhetoric. The “Yellow Line” is now embodied on the ground by massive, yellow-painted concrete blocks that bisect the Gaza Strip to a depth of between 1.5 and 6.5 kilometers. Before the recent escalation, the Strip extended about 41 kilometers in length and between 6 and 12 kilometers in width. As it stands however, Israel has tightened its grip on more than half of this area in one of the world’s most densely-populated regions. This has exacerbated overcrowding, drastically reduced usable land, and devastated the agricultural sector, thus intensifying the humanitarian catastrophe, entrenching mass forced displacement, deepening the destruction, and contributing to the complete collapse of the institutional infrastructure.

The Zamir statements cannot be separated from the context of the pronouncements of war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, who, from northern occupied Palestine, spoke of the expansion of his northern and northeastern borders by establishing a demilitarized buffer zone from the Syrian capital, Damascus, to the occupied Golan Heights. This is being made with the advance of his military forces into the UN-monitored buffer zone and the occupation of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon (Jabal al-Sheikh). Also, Israel is presently establishing establishing a “buffer zone” in the territory of southern Lebanon, destroying border villages and/or leaving them completely depopulated and deploying military reinforcements at strategic border points to impose a new security and geopolitical reality by force.

According to the Trump’s plan the second phase was supposed to begin after Hamas fulfilled its commitment to release all Israeli captives, both alive and deceased, and after Netanyahu announced his readiness to move to this phase.

However, this transition was contingent on two fundamental conditions: The deployment of international peacekeeping forces and the complete disarmament of Hamas. Herein lies the complexity of the issue; Netanyahu has publicly expressed skepticism about the ability of any international force to carry out the disarmament mission and has categorically stated that Hamas’s disarmament will be achieved through coercive military means and under the direct supervision of Israeli forces.

In contrast, Hamas maintains its categorical refusal to disarm except within a comprehensive framework that includes the formation of a unified Palestinian ‘technocratic” government and a complete withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces. At a minimum, Hamas has expressed its willingness to store its weapons within an agreed-upon mechanism as part of a comprehensive political process, as confirmed by Bassem Naim, a member of the movement’s political bureau, in recent statements.

The current situation reveals that Israel is treating the existing circumstances as a strategic opportunity to expand its geographical borders and exert maximum pressure on the Palestinian people, paving the way for what it calls “voluntary displacement” under a humanitarian pretext—a pretext it itself created.

Simultaneously, it is deliberately and systematically obstructing the transition to the second phase of the Trump agreement by continuing its policies of occupation, killing, and destruction under the guise of a ceasefire.

It is clear this arrangement serves its strategic interests and intersects with broader Western interests, with the ultimate result being the aborting of any chance of establishing a sovereign Palestinian state, and keeping the Gaza Strip – as it has always been – a besieged enclave, which Israel exploits to achieve its political agenda and strengthen its internal cohesion, and turning it into a field laboratory in which various military weapons, biological tools and advanced technological techniques are tested, but with a reduction in the population, which allows it to continue what is strategically known as “managing the conflict” in the long term.

This article by Ismail Al Sharif was originally written in Arabic for the Addustour daily and published in Crossfirearabia.com.

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At 61: One More Israeli Soldier Kills Himself

An Israeli soldier killed himself in a military base in northern Israel, taking the suicide-related death toll to 61 since the beginning of the Gaza war in October 2023, local media said.

According to the Haaretz newspaper, a soldier serving compulsory military service sustained critical injuries after shooting himself inside a base and was pronounced dead Tuesday evening in a hospital.

A military statement earlier said that a soldier was seriously injured in a shooting at a military base in northern Israel and was taken to the hospital, where he later died, noting that the military police had opened an investigation into the incident.

A total of 279 Israeli soldiers have attempted to commit suicide from the beginning of 2024 until July 2025, amounting to roughly one completed suicide for every seven attempts, according to a report by the Knesset Research and Information Center.

The Israeli army earlier confirmed that 48 soldiers had taken their own lives during military service since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023.

At least 13 soldiers also died of suicide outside military service due to psychological problems, including six since the beginning of this year; raising the total number of suicides since the start of the war to 61, Haaretz said.

Twenty Israeli soldiers died by suicide in 2024, and 16 others since the beginning of this year until July, Haaretz reported, noting that since then at least four additional soldiers have taken their own lives.

In October, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir acknowledged a worsening mental health crisis within the army, saying thousands of soldiers were receiving psychological treatment. He urged commanders to stay alert, detect mental health problems within their units, and ensure that soldiers seek immediate treatment.

Nearly 10,000 Israeli soldiers out of 19,000 injured in Gaza are suffering from psychological disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder and are being treated at the Defense Ministry’s Rehabilitation Department, according to a previous report by the public broadcaster KAN published in late July.

Israel has killed nearly 70,700 victims, mostly women and children, and injured more than 171,000 in Gaza since October 2023 and reduced the enclave to rubble according to Anadolu.

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1000s of Israeli Soldiers Abandon Combat in Gaza

Israel’s top army general has accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of withholding decisions on the war in Gaza, as new reports indicate thousands of Israeli soldiers have abandoned combat service since the genocidal assault on the enclave began, according to Israeli media.

According to the Anadolu news agency, the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Monday that Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir told the Knesset’s intelligence subcommittee last week that Netanyahu had not provided clear instructions on the army’s next steps in Gaza, the report said.

“The prime minister doesn’t tell us what comes next, so we don’t know what to prepare for,” the newspaper quoted Zamir as saying.

He added that if the government intends to impose a military administration in Gaza, “they should state it openly.”

GHF Criticized

Zamir also criticized the US-backed aid distribution scheme run by the so-called Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, calling it a “failure.”

Despite the expansion of distribution centers from four to 12, Zamir questioned why Israel was enlarging a program that “did not work in the first place.”

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“I don’t understand why they are spending money on it and increasing the number of aid centers to 12, if it failed when there were four,” he is quoted by Haaretz as saying.

Gaza’s Health Ministry says Israeli attacks on aid seekers at distribution sites have killed more than 2,400 Palestinians and wounded over 18,000.

Morale Crisis

Meanwhile, Haaretz reported that the army is facing an unprecedented morale crisis, with thousands of conscripts leaving frontline units since October 2023. Many were reassigned to non-combat duties or discharged altogether, with officers admitting the scale of withdrawals is without precedent, Anadolu cited the paper as reporting.

Testimonies collected by Haaretz described deep psychological scars among troops, including post-traumatic stress and what military counselors call “moral injuries”- trauma from actions that conflict with personal values. Soldiers spoke of accidental killings of children, snipers ordered to fire on civilians near aid convoys, and repeated suicide attempts in combat brigades.

While the army’s spokesperson has withheld official figures, senior officers told Haaretz the problem is “out of control.”

The Jerusalem Post reported on Monday that the Hostages and Missing Families Forum have demanded a meeting with Zamir over “the threat” that the operation in Gaza City poses to the captives held in the enclave.

20,000 Wounded Soldiers

On Monday, Haaretz reported that around 20,000 soldiers injured in the Gaza onslaught “are being treated by the Defense Ministry Rehabilitation Division, with 55 percent – roughly 10,700 – struggling with mental health issues.”

Citing the Defense Ministry, the paper said” 20 percent of those with mental health issues were also physically wounded, while 45 percent of the veterans registered with the division are dealing with physical injuries only.”

By 2028, the division estimates it will treat “100,000 injured veterans, including 50,000 with mental health injuries.”

Ongoing Genocide

Starting on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military, with American support, launched a genocidal war against the people of Gaza. This campaign has so far resulted in the deaths of more than 64,900 Palestinians, with more than 164,000 wounded. The vast majority of the population has been displaced, and the destruction of infrastructure is unprecedented since World War II. Thousands of people are still missing.

In addition to the military assault, the Israeli blockade has caused a man-made famine, leading to the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians—mostly children—with hundreds of thousands more at risk.

Despite widespread international condemnation, little has been done to hold Israel accountable. The nation is currently under investigation for genocide by the International Court of Justice, while accused war criminals, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are officially wanted by the International Criminal Court as reported in the Palestine Chronicle.

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Worst Day For The Israeli Army. Why?

By Dr Marwan Asmar

As the Israeli army attempts to enter and control Gaza City, it is receiving constant and horrendous shocks from the Palestinian resistance groups after 23 months of fighting. It is sobering for Israeli soldiers as four simultaneous ambushes were carried out against in an area of eight kilometers supposedly flattened by American-supplied mass bombs.

The latest carried Tuesday night by Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters is sending shockwaves in Israel and among its army because of the intensity of the clashes and firepower where it is reported that Israeli tanks and armed carriers were blown up in face-to-face fighting with machine guns and other explosives.

The toll is still being counted but Hamas are promising this is just the beginning.

On the Israeli side at least one soldier was killed, 11 others injured and four soldiers missing. They are feared to be taken hostages by Hamas although the Israeli army wouldn’t confirm this with latest reports that them may have reestablished contact. But this is yet to be verified.

Many media outlets, primarily Israeli, are speculating the Israeli army may have activated its Hannibal Directive and killed at least one its soldier rather than allowing him to be taken alive by resistance fighters.

The latest clashes, carried out in Al Zaytun and Sabra neighborhoods, on the southern outskirts of Gaza City is being described by the Israeli media as another 7 October when 1200 Israelis were killed and 250 hostages were taken by Hamas fighters back to Gaza City.

This description is setting additional shockwaves among Israeli society and fear that the remaining hostages in Gaza, dubbed at least 20 will not come out alive, nor the 30 killed will not be handed back.

The latest ambushes are suggesting as well Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups are still in their top fighting form despite the repeated utterings by Israeli Prime Minister that his army is “cleaning up” the areas of Gaza from these fighters and in spite of the fact that most of the enclave has been turned into rubble with more than 63,000 killed by the Israeli war machine.

While Israel controls 75 percent of the Israeli army, they are yet to enter Gaza City. The latest incursion into the Al Zaytun neighborhood is number seven. Their previous incursions, totaling six have ended in failure.  As a result of the latest ambushes, Israeli soldiers have withdrew yet again further south to the Natzarim Crossing which they now control and effectively split Gaza into two halves.

The Battle for Gaza City is still in its early stages however and Israel is in for more surprises. The Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir who is already deeply dismayed about attempting to control Gaza City because of insurmountable logistical reasons and powerful armed Palestinian groups, is sure to be greatly worried from the latest ambushes.

He has already warned the Netanyahu that Israel could lose 100 soldiers in the battle which is yet to start to control Gaza City and prefers a political solution. But this is not in the offing or an option for the political leaders who insist that the military plod on regardless of their safety and security.

By western estimations, the Palestinian resistance groups – mainly Hamas and Islamic Jihad –  continue to have anything between 25,0000 to 50,0000 fighters and will likely maintain their maintain their momentum and keep emerging from underground tunnels. Experts have said this is indeed a miracle for many of these tunnels, including the one under Al Zaytun, are still intact and continue to replenish the resistance.

At the moment many of the Palestinian fighters, including from leftist factions like the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine have relocated and the Zaytun Battalion has rebuilt itself which the Israeli army claimed it destroyed in the previous 22 months. The scorching ambushes that occurred recently, and whose Israel is keeping a tight censorship lip about the actual number of its deaths and injured, are just the beginning and there is likely to be more in the coming days.

Zamir is well aware of the tough fight that lies ahead and that is why his is claiming to be following a strategy of moving slowly and “surely”. But judging from the latest fight this strategy is failing before it gets off-the-ground as the decision to enter the formidable was taken two weeks ago.     

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