Analysts: US Fails on Houthis After Six Weeks of Bombing

After nearly six weeks of intensive US airstrikes on different areas and cities of Yemen the Houthi Ansar Allah continues to assert that its military operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets will not stop until the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip ends.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, Saturday, announced the targeting of the Israeli Nevatim Air Base in the Negev with a ballistic missile, as well as two other sites in the Tel Aviv and Ashkelon areas and the targeting of warships on the US aircraft carrier SS Harry Truman in the northern Red Sea are just part of the continuing ongoing military strikes.

However in response to these attacks the US aircraft launched two airstrikes last Friday night on the Ras Isa oil port in the coastal province of Al Hudaydah, which Washington considers a major source of fuel used to finance the Ansar Allah group’s activities.

According to Dr Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, the USA has failed miserably in its strikes against the Houthis because of its inability to move to the second phase. He said that as a result they are  discussing an alternative scenario for this military campaign against the Houthis.

Makki believes that US President Donald Trump has reached a dead end, and that the ceiling he set regarding the Houthis is proven unrealistic, pointing out the United States, despite its military strength, is failing in Yemen because it is fighting a group, not a state.

On the other hand, military and strategic expert Brigadier-General Elias Hanna, believes that both sides are losing, whilst the image of the United States is being damaged, given the scale of the US military campaign and Trump’s engagement with the Houthis, who previously declared that  “we [US] will withdraw from all the world’s wars.”

Reports estimate the cost of the airstrikes carried out by the US military on Houthi positions amounted to approximately $1 billion in the first three weeks of the military campaign alone.

The Associated Press reported the value of the seven downed American drones made by the Houthis exceed $200 million, and the continued loss of American drones makes it difficult for the US leadership to accurately determine the extent of the damage to the Houthis’ weapons stockpiles.

Brigadier-General Hanna said that Washington lacks a comprehensive strategy in its dealings with the Houthis, and that the political goal it announced—restoring deterrence and opening shipping lanes—has not been achieved.

He also pointed out the US military is targeting the centers of gravity within the Houthi military system to disrupt it, a strategy Israel has used with the Palestinian resistance but has failed to achieve.

Appeasing the Houthis

In light of Washington’s inability to achieve its goals against the Houthis, Brigadier-General Hanna believes the pressure being exerted on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip is part of an effort to appease the Houthis so that they will halt their operations in the Red Sea and against Israeli targets.

Trump’s upcoming visit to the region also requires a de-escalation. According to the military and strategic expert, the US president cannot arrive while the Houthis are launching missiles.

In the same context, the senior Al Jazeera’s Makki expects  that a Gaza ceasefire will soon be reached before Trump’s visit, allowing the Houthis to halt their operations as they have initially linked the cessation of their operations to an end to the war on Gaza and to the cessation of US strikes against them.

American officials have previously revealed to CNN that the US military has struck more than 700 Houthi targets and carried out 300 airstrikes since the campaign began in mid-March, “forcing them underground and creating confusion and chaos within their ranks.”

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Avi Ashkenazi: Hamas is Pushing Israeli Army Into a Quagmire

An Israeli military analyst said Friday, Hamas is waging a “guerrilla war” against the Israeli army in Gaza, and that decisions made by the current government are pushing it toward a quagmire.

Avi Ashkenazi, a military analyst for the Maariv newspaper, explained Hamas is trying to maintain its military strength, and its fighters know this territory; it is their stronghold.

“They (Hamas fighters) are not waging a defensive battle, but rather an offensive one through guerrilla cells. They monitor the Israeli forces from afar, know where they operate, their routines are, and look for their weak spots” he added.

“The cells prefer to operate in the afternoon, during daylight, when the sun is shining. When they realize the right time, they emerge from several openings of a single tunnel and begin the attack with an anti-tank missile, followed by sniper fire or the dropping of grenades,” Ashkenazi continued.

“The problem does not lie in the tactical management of the campaign by the army, but rather lies solely at the political level.”

“The political class is waging a war for political survival, and its decisions are pushing the army into a quagmire, even though Gaza has not seen a single drop of rain in weeks.”

“Israel must reach an agreement to release the hostages (held by Palestinian factions in Gaza) as soon as possible, even if the price is high, which is the release of (Palestinian) prisoners, and even if it means retreating to the border fence of Gaza, even if it means providing guarantees that the war will not resume,” he added.

“Hamas is Hamas, and sooner or later it will violate one of the terms of the agreement, which will allow Israel to move to complete the war’s objectives and deprive it of the ability to govern and militarize,” he continued.

“The wild and impudent words directed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir during the cabinet meeting illustrate the impasse facing some members of the political leadership,” Ashkenazi pointed out.

“The inability of the political echelons to make decisions makes it difficult for the army to manage the campaign (the war of extermination) well, quickly, and sharply.

When this happens in this type of campaign, where there is a large army (Israel) on the one side and a guerrilla organization (Hamas) on the other, the large army becomes vulnerable,” Ashkanazi stressed.

On Tuesday, the Israeli security cabinet meeting witnessed severe tensions between Smotrich and both Zamir and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar. The Hebrew media reported that the dispute began when Smotrich sharply criticized the army’s refusal to assume responsibility for distributing aid, arguing the army lacked the authority to choose its own missions.

He told Zamir: “Those who cannot carry out their missions should go home.” Zamir responded by rejecting these statements, prompting several ministers to ask Smotrich to lower his tone.

Throughout the ongoing genocide perpetrated by Israel in Gaza since October 7, 2023, Tel Aviv has been attempting to impose total control over the Gaza Strip by dismembering it and displacing its population, in addition to its attempts to eliminate Hamas and recover the prisoners in Gaza.

However, Israel has been unable to fully achieve these goals over the months of war, exposing Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to criticism both from the extreme right, which wants to tighten the noose on the Strip, and from leftists, who aspire to recover the prisoners from Gaza, even if the price is a ceasefire.

Tel Aviv estimates that there are 59 Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip, 24 of whom are still alive. Meanwhile, more than 9,500 Palestinians are languishing in its prisons, suffering torture, starvation, and medical neglect, many of whom have died, according to Palestinian and Israeli human rights and media reports.

With full American support, Israel has been committing genocide in Gaza since October 7, 2023, leaving more than 168,000 Palestinians dead and wounded, most of them children and women, and more than 11,000 missing according to Anadolu.

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Military Analysis: The Gaza Resistance is Back

Military, strategic expert Major-General Fayez al-Duwairi said the recent operations carried out by the Palestinian resistance groups in the Gaza Strip, led by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, reveal a remarkable ability to perform on the ground, despite Israeli military superiority.

He added that attempts to weaken the resistance are still far off.

In a full military analysis al-Duwairi explained that what happened in Beit Hanoun and the al-Tuffah neighborhood cannot be limited to a single operation, but reflects several separate ambushes in which advanced tactics were employed, including tunnel detonations and preemptive surveillance of enemy movements.

The Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the Hamas military wing released a video of the “Breaking the Sword” ambush it carried out east of Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza, which resulted in the death of one soldier and the injury of others whilst also engineering an Israeli force that was lured into a booby-trapped tunnel shaft in the al-Tuffah neighborhood and detonated it, resulting in a number of casualties.

Al-Duwairi pointed out that the attack on the Israeli force east in Tuffah is an independent operation and believes the succession of these operations confirms the resistance’s return to the tactics of the first phase of the war, when it held the initiative.

The military expert believes these attacks reflect the resistance factions’ readiness to employ different methods in confrontation, including booby-trapping, sniping, and direct engagement at close range.

He pointed out that the video footage broadcast by the Qassam Brigades from Beit Hanoun, showing the resistance fighters infiltrating through a tunnel, demonstrates a high degree of professionalism, especially since the fighters emerged from a tunnel previously monitored by the occupation, indicating a failure of Israeli intelligence to assess the extent of the threat.

Five stages

Speaking on Al Jazeera, he explained that this complex ambush was executed in five stages, including surveillance, targeting the first vehicle, and then surprising the support force. He indicated that the resistance various weapons were used, including RPG launchers, machine guns, and mortar shells, indicating tight field coordination.

The retired major-general emphasized what was striking about the operation was that the ambush occurred in a buffer zone from which the occupation forces had not supposedly withdrawn, specifically on al-Awda Street, only about 300 meters from the separation line. This demonstrates the fighters’ great audacity and their ability to penetrate deep into Israeli territory in broad daylight.

He pointed out that field data reported by Israeli media, such as the amputation of two female soldiers’ legs as a result of the attack, confirms that the losses were heavy. The Israeli army was also forced to use 60mm mortar shells to attempt to regain control of the area after losing soldiers and equipment.

Al-Duwairi emphasized that the continuation of these ambushes and their various implementation methods prove that the resistance has not lost the initiative. Rather, it is now capable of moving whenever the opportunity arises, whether by reaching deep within the buffer zone or targeting occupation forces as they approach pre-prepared positions.

He pointed out that the tactic of the tunnel detonated east of the Tuffah neighborhood differed from the Beit Hanoun tunnel, explaining that the former involved a direct lure of an Israeli force into a booby-trapped tunnel, reflecting high-precision surveillance and the ability to remain patient on the ground until the appropriate moment for execution.

Major General Fayez al-Duwairi believes that the resistance’s field performance in recent hours reflects an important fact: The use of tunnels remains a black box for the Israeli army. He added that the ability to exploit this tactical advantage means that twisting the resistance’s arm remains out of reach.

Since the beginning of last March, the first phase of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Hamas and Israel, which went into effect on January 19, with Egyptian and Qatari mediation and American support, has concluded, and the movement has adhered to it.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu evaded the start of the second phase and resumed the genocide in the Gaza Strip on 18 March, in deference to the most extreme faction within his right-wing government.

With full American support, Israel has been committing genocide in Gaza since 7 October, 2023, leaving more than 168,000 Palestinians dead and wounded, most of them children and women, and more than 11,000 missing.

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Talk of Resistance Weakness is Wrong – Military Expert

Military and strategic experts Nidal Abu Zeid said that the current ongoing discussion that the Palestinian resistance has become weak is simply not accurate and unrealistic.

He added although the resistance factions may have suffered blows that diminished their combat effectiveness and organizational structure and decision-making, they have not lost their capabilities.

“The organizational structure of these types of liberation movements and resistance factions are  horizontal, not vertical, which means spread out combat ‘nodes’ with each node serving as an independent cell in its planning, intelligence, operational, and leadership dimensions,” he explained.

“This means that military action is centralized in planning and decentralized in execution, which explains the continuity of the resistance after 549 days,” he pointed out

Abu Zeid told Jordan24 “the resistance has become more cautious in dealing with the form of the military operation, and the Israeli occupation army has also become cautious, for fear of getting involved in an offensive battle whose cost could be high in light of the crisis in manpower and reserves that the Israel army is currently is suffering from,” he continued.

“This is reinforced by the fact that the casualty curve after the resumption of fighting 22 days ago remains zero among the ranks of the resistance and the occupation army, compared to the same period during the first military operation,” the strategic expert added.

Abu Zeid pointed to the focus of crimes and killings is concentrated among unarmed civilians and children, stating that the Israeli occupation is raising the human cost to the popular support base of the resistance, as it becomes aware of its inability to achieve a decisive military victory.

Regarding the Israeli army announcement of expanding its military operation and establishing an additional Morag axis to separate Khan Yunis from Rafah, Abu Zeid said these are “soft flanks” where the occupation was already present before the ceasefire and withdrawal agreement, and have merely now returned to the same open areas and used as military media propaganda to convince the government that it is achieving tactical advantage.

Abu Zeid believes the Israeli occupation no longer has the luxury of time after the Trump and Netanyahu meeting in which the former stressed the necessity of a ceasefire, especially since the Jewish Passover holiday, which is particularly sacred to Zionists, will fall within a few days.

Abu Zeid pointed out the attempted mutiny witnessed by the Israeli Air Force on Tuesday confirms the exhaustion and fatigue affecting its combat units and the rising cost of civilian casualties in Gaza, which may force everyone to cease fighting and return to negotiations in the coming days.

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How Israel Uses Its Legal System For Genocide

The Israeli Supreme Court’s ruling to deny a request to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip is a crucial component of a well-functioning colonial system designed to perpetrate the crime of genocide against the Strip’s people.

The ruling made 27 March is further evidence that the Israeli judiciary—which has never served as a tool of justice for Palestinians—functions as a part of a system in which all state institutions participate, whether Israel’s government, army and other security forces, military prosecution, courts, or media. All of these institutions blatantly violate international legal and humanitarian norms by committing crimes against Palestinians, aiding in the commission of such crimes by coordinating their activities, and/or providing a false legal cover.

The Israeli Supreme Court has explicitly and directly legitimised Israel’s illegal blockade of the Gaza Strip. This blockade has denied food, water, medicine, fuel, and electricity to over two million people—half of whom are children—for nearly 18 months. Meanwhile, human rights organizations have warned that Israel’s refusal to allow humanitarian aid and basic supplies into the enclave for more than three consecutive weeks has accelerated famine in the Strip and led to the deaths of infants from starvation.

One of the most obvious examples of the complicity of all Israeli state institutions in the crime of genocide is the use of starvation as a declared weapon against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, which has now been made an official policy through a “political” decision validated by a court ruling.

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To support its ruling, the Israeli court used the argument that the State of Israel is exempt from the obligations of belligerent occupation under international law in all cases pertaining to the Gaza Strip. This blatantly violates established international legal norms that are acknowledged to apply to the Occupied Palestinian Territory. It also goes against the International Court of Justice’s 2024 advisory opinion and gravely breaches the ICJ rulings in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel.

The Fourth Geneva Convention, which applies to the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including the Gaza Strip, is gravely violated by the Israeli court’s recent decision. The occupying power is required by the Convention to provide food and medical supplies to the occupied population. It is also required to permit relief efforts for the benefit of these populations in the event that local resources are insufficient, and to allow for the supply of facilities, including those conducted by states or humanitarian organizations, especially those involving food aid, clothing, and medical supplies.

Euro-Med Monitor emphasizes that the decision is a flagrant disregard of the rulings of the International Court of Justice in the South Africa v. Israel genocide case. In January and March of 2024, the Court mandated that Israel take prompt and decisive action to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid and essential basic services to alleviate the terrible circumstances faced by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. In coordination with the United Nations, these measures included providing food, water, electricity, fuel, shelter, humanitarian aid, clothing, hygiene, and sanitation needs, as well as medical supplies and medical care to Palestinians across the Strip, including by expanding the number and capacity of land crossing points and keeping them open for as long as possible.

The International Court of Justice affirmed that Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip constituted a real and immediate threat of genocide to the Palestinian people there, as well as the possibility of irreversible harm and violations of Palestinians’rights to be protected from genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

The Israeli court’s rationale is therefore in direct opposition to the advisory opinion issued on 19 July 2024 by the International Court of Justice, the highest court in the world.

The ICJ unequivocally affirmed that Israel’s legal obligations were not terminated by its military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, as Israel still maintains effective control over key areas of the Strip, such as the buffer zone, the land, sea, and air borders, restrictions on the movement of people and goods, and tax control. Since 7 October 2023, this control has become much more intense. As a result, Israel continues to be the occupying force in accordance with international law and is responsible for providing humanitarian aid and other necessities to the civilian population in the Strip. 

The rejection of these fundamental legal precepts by the Israeli court is not just a misreading; rather, it is a deliberate judicial intervention aimed at denying the existence of the Israeli occupation and undermining the laws that safeguard the rights of the people who are subject to it. Viewed within the larger framework of institutional complicity that helps to enable and carry out Israel’s crime of genocide against the Palestinian people, this intervention turns the international legal system from a tool of protection into a cover for impunity.

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Israel has a legal duty to the people it governs, and this duty extends beyond its legal relationship with the territory. Instead, it necessitates a steadfast obligation to uphold and defend human rights and the principles of preemptive international law under all conditions. Israel’s responsibilities under fundamental human rights conventions, such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights, the Convention on the Rights of the Child, and other international instruments, extend beyond the regulations of occupation law and include duties pertaining to preventing population starvation and allowing the entry of humanitarian aid.

Regardless of a state’s legal standing under international law, its effective control over a territory serves as the foundation for its legal accountability for actions that impact this territory’s residents.

The presence of a state of occupation alone does not negate the duties of an occupying power to prevent the occupied population from living in substandard conditions or from suffering from severe physical or mental injury. 

Instead, these duties are enforced by preemptive standards of customary international law, such as the outright ban on crimes against humanity, such as apartheid and genocide. Whether in times of peace or conflict, these standards require all states to uphold these rights and guarantee their protection at all times.

All Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are experiencing a dire humanitarian situation, especially since Israel’s genocidal campaign of direct killings in the Strip resumed on 18 March. This occurs at a time when Israel has been using other tools of genocide against the Strip’s people for a year and a half now.

These tools include starvation, blockade, deprivation of virtually all means of survival, severe physical and psychological suffering, and the imposition of living conditions that are destructive, all of which are intended to destroy the Palestinian people there.

Not only does the ongoing situation in the Gaza Strip violate Israel’s legal obligations, but it also directly calls into question all other states’ adherence to their own obligations, whether these states are directly involved in the genocide or have not acted decisively to stop Israel if in a position to do so. The Fourth Geneva Convention, the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, and customary international law all bind these states. These regulations require states to actively work to prevent genocide and to abstain from any actions that facilitate, encourage, or open the door for its occurrence. 

The international community must stop enslaving the Palestinian people to a state that is using all of its official institutions to destroy their lives, drive them off their land, and threaten their shared national identity. Given its decades-long failure to uphold international law and apply it equitably to, and without discrimination against, Palestinians, the international community is directly responsible for the disastrous reality that Palestinians face today, wherever they may be. This failure reveals the biased foundations upon which the international system was established, as this system has deprived Palestinians of their most fundamental rights, most notably their right to exist.

All states must take up their individual and collective legal obligations and act quickly to put an end to the genocide in the Gaza Strip. They must do everything they can to protect Palestinian civilians there, i.e. enforce all necessary measures to force Israel to immediately and fully lift the blockade; permit unhindered freedom of movement of people and goods; open all crossings without arbitrary conditions; and take decisive action to protect Palestinians from forced displacement and swift or slow-motion killing. This entails launching an immediate response to address the population’s pressing and pertinent needs, such as offering suitable temporary housing for displaced people.

The international community must impose economic, diplomatic, and military sanctions on Israel due to its systematic and serious violations of international law. These sanctions, which willincrease pressure on Israel to stop its crimes against Palestinians, should include barring arms exports to Israel; stopping military cooperation with Israel; freezing the financial assets of officials involved in crimes against Palestinians; and suspending trade privileges and bilateral agreements that give Israel economic benefits.

In addition to acting to stop Israeli policies that violate the most fundamental humanitarian principles and endanger the lives of millions of civilians, the States Parties to the Fourth Geneva Convention should fulfil their duty under Common Article 1 to uphold and guarantee adherence to the Convention under all circumstances.

The International Criminal Court must issue arrest warrants for Israeli officials involved in international crimes in the Gaza Strip, and expedite its ongoing investigations. Additionally, the Court ought to acknowledge and specifically address Israel’s crimes as genocide. The Rome Statute’s States Parties should fulfil their legal duties to assist the Court in every way possible;make sure that arrest warrants against Israeli officials are carried out; bring these officials to international justice; and make sure to end the policy of impunity that has been granted to these officials thus far.

Along with fulfilling its legal obligations, the international community must take immediate action to end the root causes of the suffering and persecution endured by the Palestinian people forthe past 76 years: Israeli occupation and settler-colonialism in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. The international community must compel Israelto guarantee the Palestinians’ right to live in freedom, dignity, and self-determination in accordance with international law; to dismantle the system of apartheid and isolation imposed on the Palestinians; to lift the illegal blockade of the Gaza Strip; to hold Israeli perpetrators and allies accountable and prosecute them; and to ensure Palestinian victims’ rights to compensation and redress.

Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor

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