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Trump’s Paradigm Shifts

Dr Khairi Janbek
November 7, 2024

Dr Khairi Janbek

Islolationism in American terms meant historically, the interests of the USA are best served by not getting entangled in wars across the Atlantic, nor in the political affairs of Europe and possibly beyond, while keeping the economic expansion going.

Now to what extent will the incoming administration of Donald Trump proceed with isolationism and to what extent it believes will serve US interests?; in the mean time let us not forget that people electioneering or euphoric, are not the same people in the Oval Office.

But still the first signs of isolationism are emerging in the field of US trade policy, with intended high customs and duties on imported goods from abroad.

This goes as well for the foreign policy of Trump which signals his distaste to negotiating with blocks and preferring bilateral agreements. This puts him in good standing with likeminded world leaders but certainly at odds with the EU, which by extension at odds with NATO also.

Ukraine

As for the current hot spots, Trump is accustomed to paradigm shifts, for a start he thinks that supporting Ukraine is a money losing project, and good business requires an atmosphere for peace. Therefore, most likely Trump will adopt a position of neutrality in this war, neither doing anything to harm Ukraine effectively, nor help it financially or militarily, while at the same time, trying to open diplomatic and trade dialogue with Russia.

He may take the initiative to urge negotiations between the two parties on the basis of a business deal, in other words concessions. No Meg’s Russia and not totally sovereign Ukraine, in any case, in Trump’s eyes, it is a European war after all.

Mideast

Now when it comes to the Middle East, this can be more tricky. Trump has good relations with the Gulf Arab leaders, leaders of Egypt and Jordan, but also he is committed to the security of Israel and has good relations with Netanyahu.

In a sense he has to square the circle if he wants to keep his relationships unscathed to deal with two most sour issues: The two state solution to the Palestinian problem, and the future of Iran, while taking into consideration, that both his allies, Egypt and Jordan are jittery about the issue of population transfer.

Trump’s option would be offering Netanyahu a free hand in Iran with US support, in exchange for a semblance of Palestinian self-rule, thus paving the way for deligitimising Hamas while legitimizing and presenting the continuation of war as a war between Israel and Iran, with Iran’s proxies being a legitimate target.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris and the above opinion is that of the author and doesn’t reflect crossfirearabia.com.

Opinion

Jordan: United Kingdom Plan and Dashing The Chance for Peace

Dr Khairi Janbek
October 29, 2024

By Khairi Janbek

In order to reinforce the concept of the unity of the two banks, which was reaffirmed at the Cairo Arab Summit in 1970, and in order to placate the rising Palestinian sentiments, King Hussein unveiled on 15 March, 1972, his United Arab Kingdom Plan (UAK).

In an address to the nation on that day, the late King elaborated on the proposed plan, as the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan would, after the withdrawal of Israel from the West Bank, become the United Arab Kingdom comprising of two regions: First: Region of Palestine ie. West Bank and any future territories to be liberated and whose inhabitants opt to join in, with Jerusalem as its capital. Second: Region of Jordan, is East Bank and its capital Amman.

Furthermore, Amman would be the administrative capital of both regions. The King would be the head of state. There would be a local parliament and local government for each region, as well as a federal government and a parliament. There would be one federal supreme court and one army.

The late King added, this arrangement is his preference, though he intended to give the Palestinians, after liberation, the opportunity to determine their own future, and pledged to respect their choice.

Despite the fact that this plan was only a proposal, it drew violent reactions from the PLO as well as the Arab states who all in the 1970 Arab League Summit reaffirmed the unity of the two banks.

The late Mr. Yasser Arafat considered the plan a mere ressurection of Jordan’s long standing policy of insisting that the West Bank was an integral part of Jordan, and the Palestinians residents were Jordanian citizens. He considered that, a real threat to his own claim of representing the Palestinian people.

Ties between Jordan and Israel will remain government-to-government but “never people-to-people, and that's precisely because of Israeli politics,” Mustafa Hamarneh, a confidant to Jordan’s late King Hussein, tells The National https://t.co/UVOhx5YQbA
— The National (@TheNationalNews) October 27, 2024

The late president Sadat of Egypt wanted to identify his own regime with the Palestinan cause, and announced before a cheering crowd at the Palestine National Council (PNC) meeting in Cairo on 10 April 1972, the break of diplomatic relations with Jordan. Syria, in order not to be upstaged by Egypt, cut diplomatic relations with Jordan and closed its borders.

Significantly the Plan remained under consideration until the Rabat Arab Summit of 1974, when the Arab states decided the sole representative of the Palestinian people should by the PLO.

The Rabat Summit forced Jordan to withdraw from direct involvement in the peace process at the time when the eyes of the whole world and the attention of the USA, were focused on the settlement of the Arab-israeli conflict.

The Rabat decision confused the issue. Instead of concentrating on the basic problem of Israel’s occupation of Arab lands, the questions of Palestinian national rights and independent Palestinian state were introduced. The nature of the problem changed overnight.

Jordan tried to seperate the issue of withdrawal from the issue of national rights of the Palestinian people. Jordan stood for the ending of the Israeli occupation of all Arab lands; occupied after 1967 war, establish peace and then address the question of Palestinian national rights within the context of inter-Arab relations.

But the Arabs states supported the claims of the PLO as the sole representative of the Palestinian people, and the PLO leadership was not prepared to accept Israel’s withdrawal from the West Bank in favor of Jordan, fearing that would prevent it from attaining its goal; Creation of an independent Palestinian state.

The various Arab states supported the PLO for their own reasons, and were totally content to dump the Palestinian problem on the shoulders of the PLO.

The Late President Sadat and ex-US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, exploited the PLO’s position and the Arab support to it, and manipulated events in order to enable Egypt to sign a separate peace with israel.

The Rabat decision which neutralized Jordan’s role, and paved the way for Egypt’s separate peace with Israel, enabled Tel Aviv to tighten its grip on the West Bank and the Golan Heights.

Developments since Rabat have shown that, Jordan’s position for a comprehensive peace settlement with Israel, would have been the best chance for a lasting peace. A chance dashed in Rabat.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris and the above opinion is that of the author and doesn’t reflect crossfirearabia.com.

News

Jordan Denounces Smotrich’s Remarks as Racist

CrossFireArabia
October 10, 2024

The Ministry of Foreign and Expatriates confirmed that the decried remarks made by the radical Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in 2016 while he was a member of the Knesset represent the Israeli minister’s irrational and provocative ideological views.

Ambassador Sufian Al-Qudah, the ministry’s official spokesperson, emphasized that the Kingdom completely rejects and denounces these divisive and exclusionary remarks, characterizing them as a breach of international law and conventions. He also emphasized that these remarks do not diminish Jordan’s standing or the Palestinian people’s inalienable right to establish their own independent state along the lines of June 4, 1967, with occupied Jerusalem as its capital.

The statements made by the Israeli minister, according to Ambassador Al-Qudah, expose the dangers of his extreme, racist ideologies and highlight the urgent need for the international community to act swiftly to stop Israel’s unchecked aggression, as evidenced by its ongoing, aggressive war against Lebanon, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip according to the Jordan News Agency, Petra.

BREAKING: Israeli Minister of Finance Bezalel Smoteich:

“I want a Jewish state that includes Jordan, Lebanon, and parts of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. According to our greatest sages, Jerusalem is destined to extend all the way to Damascus.” pic.twitter.com/ufoJwgA3dp
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) October 10, 2024

Analyses

‘Israel Will Not be Able to Defeat Hezbollah’ – Military Expert

marwan
October 5, 2024

Israel will not succeed in achieving the goals it set in Lebanon and will not be able to defeat Hezbollah said military expert Retired Maj-Gen Mamoun Abu Nawar.

He pointed out Israel is still unable to cross the border into southern Lebanon due to the heavy losses and after seven failed attempts to do so by its soldiers.

He stressed Israel does not have the ability to defeat Hezbollah despite the losses and assassinations it carried out through its air strikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern district in the last two weeks.

Abu Nawar added to Jordan 24 the Israeli occupation army is trying to get out of the Gaza impasse and its inability to achieve the goals it announced there by opening the Lebanese front and is trying to cross the border and establish a foothold there to start extensive military operations later.

But he pointed out it is failing to do so after the heavy losses inflicted on its invading soldiers.

Israeli media: US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: "Israel will not be able to destroy Hezbollah" pic.twitter.com/lqHgv0FOPB
— Lou Rage (@lifepeptides) October 4, 2024

Abu Nawar explained opening a third front with Iran will not be easy and Israel does not have the ability to confront the strikes and ballistic and hypersonic missiles, which are considered among Iran’s most powerful weapons.

Abu Nawar pointed out that the air strike on Iran requires the approval of four countries for the aircraft to cross, namely Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria. He noted Jordan has already refused for its airspace to be used by both parties and the other countries will not allow the use of their airspace because they will be partners in the operation and this is not easy either.

Abu Nawar continued that there are also technical, technological and logistical reasons for Israel’s inability to strike Iran by air, including because the lack of aircrafts available to refuel after they were taken out of service; and in this case it needs the intervention of the USA to supply it with them or use its military bases in the Middle East, and this is not possible at the present time.

Israel can't win against Hezbollah warns the White House

According to the Washington Post, the White House has warned Israel that it will not be able to defeat Hezbollah .
They know they can’t win and they are not fighting for winning, they just want endless wars. pic.twitter.com/trKwGhqr2Z
— Dr. Suhail (@suhaichemistry) January 7, 2024

Opinion

A Middle East Powder Keg

Dr Khairi Janbek
September 25, 2024

By Dr Khairi Janbek

Like Dorian Grey in Oscar Wild’s novel, we hated the face of Arab political realism in the 20th century when we saw it, and hated it more in the 21st century when we stopped seeing it.

Without much ado, the current ongoing war, or perhaps more accurately wars, in the Middle East, started by opportunists for opportunistic goals that converged. Hamas with its 7th October attacks knowing only too well that Israel has the most right-wing and racist government in its history, and must have known that the its retaliation would be most severe.

It stands the reason to think the more severe the better, because this is likely to involve what is called as the axis of resistance in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and as a bonus Iran as well. But closer to home, Israel by making Gaza uninhabitable to the people is expected to cause an exodus towards Egypt thus bringing it into the conflict, and the inevitable thought of Israel moving into the West Bank, and the likely push out of the Palestinians towards Jordan will bring the country into the conflict as well.

For Israel, with its most extremist right wing and racist government, the attacks couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. The situation presented them with the opportunity of attempting to put what were merely theoretical ideas in their minds, into practical policies. Of course the root of what became a policy, is the rejection of an independent Palestinian state and the death of the two-state solution, by starting with breaking the Hamas grip in Gaza and transforming the area into a buffer zone with possible rebuilding of colonies/settlements on the area.

Here’s a little reminder for when you hear things like, Israel has shown “restraint” or its indiscriminate bombing and terror attacks in Lebanon are “self defense.”

Over 80% of the attacks between Israel and Hezbollah after October were carried out by Israel. pic.twitter.com/jcvQDMn37I
— Assal Rad (@AssalRad) September 24, 2024

This is while the Gazans can be completely dependent on the good will of Israel for their survival, however, if the Arabs want to rebuild Gaza then by all means, but let them this time protect their investments by keeping actively the peace, and if Egypt can be persuaded to voluntarily taken in some Gazan refugees all the better!

Of course all eyes are also on the West Bank. Here Israel’s aim, one would say, is to turn the area into a “bantustan” totally dependent on Israel, with the trimmings of municipal power to the PNA to manage internal affairs while real control of the economic, political domains remain in Israel’s hands.

The Palestinians here would also be dependent on the Israeli economy, and relations between the West Bank and Jordan would be only possible with Israeli consent. If of course, Jordan would accept taking displaced Palestinians from the West Bank voluntarily, all the better as well.

Having said all that, where do we stand now after so much recent death and destruction? A total war? Whatever does that actually mean when Jordan has already its own war against drugs, Egypt and its problems with Ethiopia, Somalia, Syria between the hammer of Israel and the anvil of Iran, Iraq a soup for Americans, Iranian partisans and a non-descript government, Yemen teetering on the brink of losing the existential battle, while Iran obsessed with its nuclear programme. One would hazard a guess that total war means, the killing of Israeli civilians by Hezbollah.

Dr Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris, France