Ahmad Al Sharaa: From Khaki-wear to a Blue Suit

With the fall of the Assad regime, Syria has turned a new page, with the opposition forces now holding the reins of the country .

An 11-day-long opposition blitzkrieg forced Bashar al Assad to flee to Moscow, dealing a death blow to the regime after 13 years of the brutal war.

Though various revolutionary groups fought for this decisive moment, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which means Levant Liberation Committee, emerged as a dominant force under the leadership of Ahmed al Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al Jolani.

The US and its Western allies has designated the HTS as a terrorist organisation, putting a bounty of $10 million on his head, which was lifted recently.

But the 42-year-old Syrian leader has emerged as an indispensable force, wielding strong influence over the war-ravaged country. In late December, Sharaa met Turkish and Ukrainian foreign ministers as well as top diplomats from the US and the UK, signalling that he is the de facto leader of the new Syria.

Sharaa had a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, during which the top Turkish diplomat “thanked” the Syrian leader for his “friendly” welcome to the country.

“I saw that he (Sharaa) and his friends had very clear ideas about the establishment and transition process of the new system,” said Fidan, referring to the transition process from the Assad regime rule to the new government.

Fidan and Sharaa also sat down for a tea stop in Damascus’s famous Mount Qasioun, which overlooks the capital. Mount Qasioun is believed to be the site of legendary events, such as the Biblical and Quranic figure Abel’s murder by Cain.

From a fighter in battle fatigues to a statesman in a Western suit and a trimmed beard, Sharaa’s transformation reflects the changes in the country since the fall of the Assad regime.

Since the beginning of the 11-day lightning offensive against the Assad regime, Sharaa has given several interviews and statements from CNN to Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya TVreflecting a fair degree of moderation in his worldview.

He has pledged to ease sectarian tensions and rebuild the country along the margins of justice and equality. The HTS leader also sent a message to the Western camp saying that “your interests are understood in the new Syria.”

He suggested working with Russia, an ally of the Assad regime, and sent a conciliatory message to Iran, in which he offered to develop a positive relationship even though Tehran fiercely backed Bashar al Assad in the past.

“This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” he said, during one of his first speeches after the overthrow of the Assad regime in Damascus’s Umayyad Mosque, one of the most decorated and oldest Muslim religious structures.

In his latest interview, Sharaa suggested that elections and drafting a new constitution replacing the current Baathist charter will take several years due to the fact that the civil war has led to a large displacement and a lot of disruption in many public services.

A moderate leader?

The Biden administration has also signalled that depending on Sharaa’s path, Washington might consider removing the HTS from the US terror list.

“We have taken note of statements by the leaders of these rebel groups in recent days, and they’re saying the right things now, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their word, but their actions,” Biden said on Dec. 8.

In a recent interview, Sharaa urged the Western leadership to lift sanctions because they were “issued based on the crimes” of the Assad regime, which is gone after the opposition victory. As a result, “these sanctions should be removed automatically”, he said.

Not only the US but also regional powerhouses like Türkiye, which has backed the opposition’s democratic aspirations against the Assad regime, also closely watching Sharaa and the new Syrian administration’s ongoing policies.

With an overwhelming majority of Syrians having lost so many loved ones in the brutal war, they are now hoping for a long-lasting peace and a life with dignity and honour.

“I have an advice for him (Sharaa/Jolani), I hope he is smart enough to know it by himself: don’t even try to be the new Assad. The Syrians who did a revolution against Assad, can do it again easily against you as well,” says Omar Alhariri, a Daraa-based Syrian journalist.

“We are looking for the future, being a good part of it. We are waiting for justice,” Alhariri tells TRT World, adding that Sharaa should lead a process in which “Syrians themselves should choose their leaders” in a democratic process.

Sharaa has recently shown his openness to a democratic order, saying the HTS and its armed allies intend to form a “council chosen by the people” and a state operating through institutions.

In March, however, he faced large protests in his previous stronghold Idlib, where protesters accused him of corruption and suppression. It remains to be seen whether his moderate rhetoric will match his future actions.

What is his background?

Born in Saudi Arabia to Syrian parents who are from the Israel-occupied Golan Heights, Sharaa grew up hearing the stories of his family’s displacement.

During the infamous Arab-Israeli War of 1967, Israel occupied the Golan Heights, rendering its inhabitants, including Sharaa’s family, homeless.

Assad’s ouster under the leadership of Sharaa is, in a way, life coming full circle. His father Hussein al-Sharaa was a pan-Arab nationalist, who was imprisoned in the 1970s by Bashar al Assad’s father Hafez al Assad. After his release, Sharaa’s father sought asylum in Saudi Arabia where he worked as an oil engineer.

In 1989, when he was seven-years-old, the Sharaa family returned to Syria’s Damascus. The young Sharaa pursued journalism, studying media.

In the 2000s, the Second Intifada left indelible marks on Sharaa’s life. While his father had cultivated strong ties with the Palestinian armed groups affiliated to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the young Sharaa established contacts with radical groups like Al Qaeda.

“I started thinking about how I could fulfil my duties, defending a people who are oppressed by occupiers and invaders,” he said during an interview with Frontline in 2021, referring to the Palestinian resistance against Israel.

In the preceding months of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, he joined the Al Qaeda ranks, fighting against the American occupation.

By the mid-2000s, he was imprisoned by US authorities in Iraq and subjected to difficult conditions in America’s notorious dark sites for at least five years. On his release in 2011, Sharaa stepped into a different world.

The Arab Uprisings were spreading across the Middle East, reaching Syria too. Sharaa quickly joined hands with the anti-regime forces, launching another battle against the Bashar al Assad’s rule in Syria.

Toward being a top operative

After his move to Syria, Sharaa formed Jabhat al Nusra, the Syrian wing of Al Qaeda. In 2013, when Daesh wanted to annex Syria and merge it with the parts it had captured in Iraq, Sharaa rebelled, triggering a fight between the two groups.

While Daesh lost control across both Syria and Iraq thanks to an American-led coalition interference, Sharaa’s Nusra Front survived, partly due to its anti-Daesh stance.

In 2016, Sharaa rebranded his group Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front for the Conquest of Syria), indicating that the new structure has its own agenda, straining its ties with Al Qaeda. The next year, he once again changed the group’s name to its current format, publicly saying that the HTS has no connections with al Qaeda.

In the last seven years, Sharaa’s HTS has focused on Syria, increasing its hold over the Idlib province, which was the last opposition stronghold in the country prior to November 27, when the 11-day offensive against the Assad regime began.

TRTWorld

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Testing Iran’s Foreign Moves

By Dr Khairi Janbek

Iranian foreign policy is a mixture of historical, ideological and geopolitical factors. As a major regional power in the Middle East, its foreign policy has often been seen as pragmatic; but practicality with an ideological component.

The country’s policy decisions are influenced by its revolutionary origins in competition with other regional powers. In reality, Iran cannot be understood outside the consideration of the legacy of the 1979 revolution, which highlighted the centrality of the concept of Velayet e Faqih; the Guardianship of the Jurist on Iran’s political and and ideological stance on global affairs.

Iran adopted a foreign policy that combined ideology with the desire for regional leadership often expressed as the defender of oppressed Muslims, the power behind the spread of Islamic values and opposition to western imperialism, especially that of the USA.

The objective has been ever since to focus on expanding and maintaining influence in the Middle East, not necessarily by creating a ‘Shiite Crescent’, but rather by creating a Persian-dominated crescent through fostering alliances with groups in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza.

This crescent has been aimed primarily as being an arch to exclude, in the first degree, Iran’s biggest Islamic rival Saudi Arabia with its close relations with the USA, from its sphere of influence.

At the same time, Iran’s nuclear ambition have put it in direct conflict with the USA and western powers. However this confrontation with the USA has habitually fluctuated between agreement, as during the Obama administration, and confrontation during the first Trump administration, then the ambiguity of the current Biden administration.

However, currently, the country faces the delicate balance of managing its relations with the western powers as well as regional actors, while seeking to maintain good relations with Russia and China.

Currently, with the ongoing tensions with Israel on one side, and melting of ice with Saudi Arabia, with the possibility of further serious confrontation with the Trump administration, Iranian foreign policy and its ability to continue to be able to navigate the preservation of its interests, will most certainly be put to the test.

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian historian based in Paris and the above opinion is written exclusively for crossfirearabia.com. 

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Trump’s Paradigm Shifts 

Dr Khairi Janbek

Islolationism in American terms meant historically, the interests of the USA are best served by not getting entangled in wars across the Atlantic, nor in the political affairs of Europe and possibly beyond, while keeping the economic expansion going.

Now to what extent will the incoming administration of Donald Trump proceed with isolationism and to what extent it believes will serve US interests?; in the mean time let us not forget that people electioneering or euphoric, are not the same people in the Oval Office. 

But still the first signs of isolationism are emerging in the field of US trade policy, with intended high customs and duties on imported goods from abroad.

This goes as well for the foreign policy of Trump which signals his distaste to negotiating with blocks and preferring bilateral agreements. This puts him in good standing with likeminded world leaders but certainly at odds with the EU, which by extension at odds with NATO also.

Ukraine

As for the current hot spots, Trump is accustomed to paradigm shifts, for a start he thinks that supporting Ukraine is a money losing project, and good business requires an atmosphere for peace. Therefore, most likely Trump will adopt a position of neutrality in this war, neither doing anything to harm Ukraine effectively, nor help it financially or militarily, while at the same time, trying to open diplomatic and trade dialogue with Russia. 

He may take the initiative to urge negotiations between the two parties on the basis of a business deal, in other words concessions.  No Meg’s Russia and not totally sovereign Ukraine, in any case, in Trump’s eyes, it is a European war after all.

Mideast

Now when it comes to the Middle East, this can be more tricky.  Trump has good relations with the Gulf Arab leaders, leaders of Egypt and Jordan, but also he is committed to the security of Israel and has good relations with Netanyahu. 

In a sense he has to square the circle if he wants to keep his relationships unscathed to deal with two most sour issues: The two state solution to the Palestinian problem, and the future of Iran, while taking into consideration, that both his allies, Egypt and Jordan are jittery about the issue of population transfer.

Trump’s option would be offering Netanyahu a free hand in Iran with US support, in exchange for a semblance of Palestinian self-rule, thus paving the way for deligitimising Hamas while legitimizing and presenting the continuation of war as a war between Israel and Iran, with Iran’s proxies being a legitimate target. 

Dr Khairi Janbek is a Jordanian writer based in Paris and the above opinion is that of the author and doesn’t reflect crossfirearabia.com. 

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Al Duwairi: Attack Shows Strong Iran, Israel’s Intelligence Failure

Military expert Major-General Fayez Al-Duwairi said the latest Iranian attack reflects a new intelligence failure for Israel, stressing it was different from its True Promise attack that took place last April, and reflects seriousness in its response.

The recent attack was carried out from several areas in Iran which reflects good preparation, especially since each batch of the trajectories headed towards specific targets. He noted the missiles used were hypersonic, which reflects Tehran’s seriousness in its response, Al-Duwairi said on Al Jazeera.

The military expert stressed the call by Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari for people to leave the underground shelters a few minutes before the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the launch of another wave of missiles represents a major intelligence failure on the part of Israel.

Al-Duwairi added this latest attack reflects great coordination for Iran, adding the great silence that preceded the launch is a credit to Tehran as it was different from the attack last April.

Although the results of the strike and its losses are not yet known, Al-Duwairi said the at least 250 missiles cannot but cause losses.

Possibilities of others entering

Israel said it will respond to this attack regardless of the repercussions, while Iran’s UN mission warned any Israeli response to this attack will be met with a devastating response.

The strategic expert pointed out Iran is still committed not to strike any US military bases in Middle East region, and that the Ain al-Assad base was targeted by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. He said this puts us in a state of great confusion.

He said this latest attack on Israel will lead to the erosion of the strategic gains Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps boasting about and in saying he will change the shape of the Middle East.

He pointed out Iran has already sent a clear message that any counterattack to this one will be met with a devastating response, indicating Israel may be subjected to strikes from the Houthi Ansar Allah group in Yemen and from the Lebanese Hezbollah.

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